2025 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Singles - Round Three Day One

ATP Singles :

Musetti vs Navone :

Lorenzo Musetti is possibly playing the best level of anyone in the draw right now. There are a handful of players who are better than him, but I don’t see anyone else who looks as smooth on the court right now as Musetti. He’s automatic in his shot selection, he has great variation, and he’s able to dial up big serves and power when it’s required. Since he’s peaking, and since it’s a new peak, this feels like a Draper/Monfils situation. The challenger Navone can play at this level in baseline rallies, but I expect the scoreline to feel one-sided.

Working in Navone’s favor is their recent history. They split matches in 2024 on clay, and the loss for Navone was 7-6, 6-3. This has been a tournament of chaos, and I think it’s tough to rule out a player as good as Mariano. The styles they play can be a factor also. Navone doesn’t have the firepower to beat the top players, but Musetti tends to win by outlasting his opponents and one of his best attributes is his ability to put the ball in tough spots and force offensive opponents to hit one extra ball. Navone isn’t really impatient enough to fold in this situation. The serving edge goes to Musetti, the power edge goes to Musetti, but the speed is around even and Navone’s backhand might be a little more consistent.

This tournament had a remarkable number of players playing well. Looking at the draw for the first round and the last few weeks of results I thought “wow, the tour is really rounding into form at the right time”. Things are turning out differently though. Players who’ve been grinding hard are starting to break down physically (Davidovich Fokina,Tommy Paul, Arthur Fils, Casper Ruud, etc) and some of the guys with a lighter workload are just a bit fresher at the end of matches (Misolic, Rocha). Navone’s familiarity, patience, and gastank make this the type of match that’s really worth watching if you have 4 hours to kill. I think this is one that will be closer than some may expect, but I still do think Musetti will come through. He’s just a bit better and more durable, and the ability to nab a few quick points here and there on serve can really help. Lorenzo is also reaching a new level and there were stretches of 2024 where he wasn’t exactly crushing worlds. Musetti in 4.

Halys vs Rune :

Halys looked rough until midway through the second set, but from there he played excellent. His wide serves were unplayable at times, and he made deft use of the dropshot which really exposed Kecmanovic’s deep court position. This is a great result for him since he’s likely to have a good grass season also and since indoor hardcourt is his best surface. While Halys is the underdog in the next round, it will be a test of Rune’s decision-making. Rune beat Nava in straight sets, but it was pretty competitive at times. I still find that Rune loses depth on his groundstrokes at times, and his choice to return aggressively can sometimes hurt him a little against the big servers. Holger will need to focus on Quentin’s backhand, as his forehand is a heavy shot that is hard to read and gets a lot of purchase when hit cross-court in these conditions. Rune’s movement and experience should get him through here, but this is an opponent who will close out if Rune makes errors and coughs up a lead. Their previous meeting went 5 in Wimbledon last year, but this should be slightly safer territory for Rune and he should be able to run down more balls and expose Halys’s slightly slow movement. Rune in 4.

Tiafoe vs Korda :

As they rescheduled the PCB match later and later, I started to hate my prediction. When I saw that it was the final night-match, I knew I was finished. Frances Tiafoe can be a bit distracted, he can struggle with consistency, and his backhand can be exposed, but if you put this guy in the spotlight, he absolutely will bring it. Tiafoe opened the match playing the best tennis he has the entire year, and he didn’t let up. The sound of the ball on his first serve is probably the loudest of anyone on tour, and he hit his backhand inside out to great effect. Pablo came in playing well, but he unraveled quickly. Tiafoe’s offensive pressure never let PCB get going, and the tension in his swings was visible throughout the match even when he had control. There were a few spots where he had opportunities to create break points, but he just couldn’t land returns consistently.

While Tiafoe was elevating his game, Korda continued his high level play. Brooksby did his usual late match surge, but Korda didn’t blink. I love it. I go after Korda a lot for playing lackluster tennis, but when he’s on he makes it look effortless. This next match is really tough to call. A round ago I’d have been sure Korda was going to thrive, but Tiafoe’s serve, forehand, and most importantly his speed make him a tough out right now. Further clouding their history is the h2h. Korda has won almost all their recent meetings, but the one clay match was a 3 setter that Tiafoe won in Estoril 2022. Obviously they’re different players now, and different players this week, but I think this one is going to be close also. Korda’s timing his forehand excellent and moving well to net, which will help since Tiafoe likes to return aggressively. He has good feel on returns and can block serves back in play, and his own delivery is much more effective than PCB’s so Tiafoe won’t have the plentiful opportunities in this round.

This is likely to be decided in tiebreakers, and I think it’s dead even. Tiafoe is a little more error prone, and despite his level against PCB I think he’s still vulnerable. Korda beating Brooksby in straights is a more impressive win because Jenson will test your offense thoroughly, and I think Korda may get his first clay win against Tiafoe. It’ll take a really focused effort and some clutch serving, because Tiafoe is faster and that really can make a difference on clay. Korda in 5.

Medjedovic vs Altmaier :

The highlights for Cerundolo Medjedovic are hard to choose because the entire match was a highlight. Medjedovic went for a winner on every single swing, for 2.5 hours straight. The wildest thing about it is that it worked. Cerundolo actually served fairly well in the parts I watched, but Medjedovic knew he could wear him down and did. It gets him to the third round and it also gets him there fresh, which will be important against Altmaier. I like Medjedovic here, but Altmaier will be a huge step up. Daniel has power off both wings, good stamina, and a decent serving game. He does everything well, and the only real hole in his game is he can be overpowered. It’ll be tougher to score on him than it was on Cerundolo, but I think Altmaier’s court position is a little too deep for him to really keep Medjedovic on defense. This should be the first match where Medjedovic drops a set, but I think I like him in 4. I still am not really sure why Medjedovic was so hyper-aggressive against Cerundolo, but I expect him to play a more measured approach here. If he’s blasting away again, he could actually lose.

Borges vs Popyrin :

“Borges is harmless!” I whispered into Ruud’s ear as he approached the court. “No chance” is the ultimate jinx in tennis, but Borges got a bit lucky here. Ruud unfortunately was struggling with a knee injury and could not compete fully against Borges. It’s a good result for Nuno, and it sets up another of his favorite clashes, one where he can possibly outlast his opponent. Alexei Popyrin and his team have done a lot of work on his fitness, but he can run out of consistent tennis. Popyrin starts out as a slight favorite for me, but it’s really hard to back a guy who makes Alcaraz at a 250 look patient. Borges will maintain a level here, and Popyrin’s highs will beat it and his lows will let it back into the match. For me it’s really about Popyrin’s first serve percentage. He was around 65% against Tabilo, and that’s right around the necessary volume for him to keep Borges from getting into a rhythm. This is pretty close, but I don’t give much credit to the Ruud win so I like Popyrin to continue his run. Popyrin in 4.

Khachanov vs Paul :

Both of these players are through in 5 sets, but they arrive in wildly different shape. Khachanov is playing well, and managed to outlast Ofner’s powerful offense by being steady and having better stamina. Paul was completely on the ropes against Fucsovics, and even though he won he could barely walk on the way to the handshake at net. It sets up a match that I think may end in a withdrawal. Tommy Paul has an abdominal strain, and he’s getting a scan today. He’s up 2-0 on Khachanov, and did just beat him in 3 in Madrid, but Khachanov is a long grind of a match and I don’t think Paul will be able to do this. If he has any issues that can be made worse, the results of the scan may cause him to withdraw. I’ve been fooled before by players looking exhausted the round before, and Tommy is in great shape, but it just seems like he struggled with Fucsovics and this is the runback against a player who doesn’t play aggressively enough to allow for quick points in either direction. Khachanov, somehow.

Shelton vs Gigante :

Shelton and Sonego was great, and Shelton arrives fresh for this with a nice walkover against Gaston. I actually don’t think it’s helpful here, because Sonego doesn’t give you much of a rhythm, and he may have prepped for Tsitsipas in his extra practice sessions. While he was enjoying a day off, Matteo Gigante was announcing himself to the tour all over again with his best match ever. Gigante has played some great tennis in the past, but I have never seen him as sharp as he was against Tsitsipas. Stefanos was extremely gracious at net and acknowledged what a great performance it was, and he was right. Gigante served accurately, he crushed his forehand on the run, and he was solid on defense. I’m interested to see how he fares against another lefty, and what he does against Shelton’s cannon of a serve. Gigante is at a new level, but recent losses to Bublik, Mensik, and Fritz make me wonder if he won’t have a tough time returning here. I’m expecting a tug of war, and Gigante is really playing sharper tennis right now than Sonego was, so this upset is doable. Shelton’s play on clay this year has exceeded expectations, but he’s still not totally natural on the dirt. Every Gigante win increases his lore, but every new matchup is also a completely new equation, as he has improved his level every single round. Gigante in 5.

Dzumhur vs Alcaraz :

This is a great day of tennis, and a great match to close it out. Alcaraz is almost assured to advance here, but Damir Dzumhur’s speed and tenacity will make for some fun rallies. He scored a good win against Perricard, an upset of such quality that he genuinely didn’t realize the match was over after he scored the final point. Dzumhur fell late in the match and landed on his knee. He reacted powerfully, and seemed like he might forfeit. He received a medical, and was shaking his head in pain throughout it. Somehow, he continued after this and seemed fine. Maybe it was shock, or maybe he’s a very strong competitor and pushed through. If his knee is less than 100%, he likely won’t be able to continue here. Either way, Alcaraz in 3.

WTA Singles :

Sabalenka vs Danilovic :

Teichmann was up 3-0, and lost 6-3, 6-1. It’s not a wild outcome, but it’s a pretty long stretch of focus. This has been the biggest key in Sabalenka’s improved play. She’s always been excellent, but a way to genuinely enjoy playing well is the best thing her and her team have conjured up. One more lefty stands in her way of the fourth round, but it’s a much tougher test. Olga Danilovic really played well against Collins, and withstood a second set surge in order to win. A few seasons ago she was a powerful name in the qualifiers at majors, but since then she’s become a threat to snag anyone on tour when she’s on. Here, I think she’s met her match. Sabalenka has the same level of power, and a similar weight of shot. Neither one is likely to be able to run down a full swing from their opponent, but I think Sabalenka is better defensively.

I don’t know the right way to say that I’m scared of Danilovic’s offense, but I still expect Sabalenka to win. It should be a tremendous match, but I think Sabalenka’s base is more stable and she should be able to reflect power better and make more gets of substance in this clash. Sabalenka in 2-3. It isn’t that I think Danilovic’s serve is so strong that she can guarantee holds, but her second shot is of such quality that her opponent’s name tends not to matter unless it’s a lightning quick player like Gauff.

Tauson vs Anisimova :

Rus played excellent and almost forced a third against Clara Tauson. It would have denied us a blockbuster (is this still a phrase?) matchup of Anisimova vs Tauson, so I’m vaguely glad this worked out. These are two very similar players in terms of their strengths. Both crush the ball off both wings, both have a pretty good first serve, and neither are really the fastest or most durable. Anisimova has recovered from a short bout of illness well, and 0,2 against Golubic seems a lot better than 5,6 against Rus. Surprisingly, these two have not played, so I’m just going to go off the level they’re bringing in and what I’ve seen from them in big matches. Tauson has proven adept at winning sets even when she’s against the biggest names on tour, and Anisimova tends to be able to break serve effectively and win blowout sets when she’s in form. I’m not totally sure if these two are going to play 3 overtime sets, or the fastest 3 setter in history. Tauson’s stamina can be a little suspect at this point, so I would give a slight edge to Anisimova. Anisimova in 3.

Yastremska vs Samsonova :

Even though she lost 3,3, I was really impressed by Romero Gormaz. She has a great sense of what shot to hit when, which shouldn’t surprise me given her Spanish background. Samsonova is playing great right now, and this is going to be a great match in a day of ridiculously big hitting. Yastremska didn’t come in in the best form, but she played a good match against Shnaider. Shnaider was able to control rallies, but the extra ball and the extra gets saw her start to make errors. By the second set (she was up 4-1 in the first and lost) she was somewhat frustrated, and the errors coupled with Yastremska’s power combined for the upset. Yastremska hit her backhand well, and she’s pretty good at trading power. Samsonova seems like the simple pick here, but it may take a while. Yastremska rallies well, moves well, and has a decent serve. The upset feels tough to call, mainly because of how solid Liudmila has been in deciding sets recently. She’s at the end of a long run, but might be slightly more efficient once she’s warmed up. Samsonova in 3.

Mboko vs Zheng :

Mboko! Victoria has basically made her way on tour in the first season where she appeared, and the sky may be the actual limit. Her win against Eva Lys was solid, and it’ll be interesting to see how her defense holds up against Zheng. It’s a matter of patience and serve percentage for Zheng here, and while she tends to have both she can get a little flustered at times. The storytelling is nice, but I think I might have a sore spot for new players on tour. I always want them to be at the top right away, and while watching Valentova play excellent but still lose 2,4 to Gauff today I realized that there are just levels of ballstriking and physical strength that require most players to wait. It’s even evident with Andreeva’s losses; she’s incredibly but it generally takes a while before players can take out the top of the tour at the majors. For now I think Mboko is not ready to win this match yet, but it’s Zheng’s toughest opponent yet. Zheng in 2.

Paolini vs Starodubtseva :

Starodubtseva is an exciting player to watch. She hits every ball as hard as she can, and never backs off. Lately she’s had fitness issues, but this week she’s playing well, and she pulled off a huge upset against Potapova. Her power and consistency will give us a first look at where the Rome champion Paolini is at this week. She’s been winning, but there was an early struggle against Yuan that raised some question marks. I expect Starodubtseva to give Paolini a lot of trouble in here return games, but I think Paolini is too solid to lose this. Paolini in one close and one lopsided set.

Pera vs Svitolina :

This is a round where some players would normally be written off, but you have to respect the round they’ve reached. Pera can be pretty inconsistent, but she outdueled Donna Vekic and her forehand is really effective on clay. Will it find a home. Hmm. Svitolina’s backhand and defense happen to be the exact thing that can usually withstand a singular offense, and her movement does feel good enough to frustrate Pera into errors. This may take 3 sets if Pera gets an early lead in a set, but I like Svitolina to advance here even if she drops a set.

Rybakina vs Ostapenko :

Rybakina just won the title in Strasbourg and she’s making fans forget the struggles she’s been through recently. She has a tough opponent here, but Rybakina has an extremely strong record against Ostapenko and has barely lost sets to her. Ostapenko comes in in rough form, but is still dangerous. She was in a tug of war against Dolehide last round, and Rybakina is a much sharper and more consistent baseliner, with possibly a better serve. This is uphill for Ostapenko, and at least one Polish fan will be hoping Rybakina continues her h2h dominance. Rybakina in 2.

Cristian vs Swiatek :

Cristian and Bejlek played a really close match, but the big difference was Cristian’s aggression in the second half of the match. She was the one pressing on offense, and she controlled a lot of rallies with her forehand. It’s hard to supply all the offense, but it helps in a long match to be applying pressure and taking full swings. The errors and fatigue are rough, but as a professional you have to back yourself. This was a good showing for Bejlek, and she served at 75% which is likely to give her some good looks at continuing her way up the rankings during the hardcourt season.

Swiatek arrives looking vulnerable, but so far she has played excellent. This is not an easy match, but I don’t think Cristian will be able to score much on Swiatek, and holding serve will be a tough ask once Iga gets a lead. Swiatek in 2.