2025 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Singles - Round Four

Sinner vs Rublev :

Jannik Sinner was already one of the best players the tour has seen in a long time, but this past month he has added a layer to his game. Against Casper Ruud in Rome, he opened up and started to basically go for constant offense. The level of consistency he brought to this approach was scary. Watching a guy bring a Djokovic level of consistency to a Federer style of shot selection is like watching another big 3 star be born. It was wildly impressive, but the next round against Tommy Paul saw him missing for the entire first set, so it sort of faded from the mind. The finals loss against Alcaraz quieted the mind (for me) a little bit. Last round, Sinner found that gear again. Lehecka isn’t really at the top tier of tennis, but he had a few good wins coming in. Jannik never gave him a chance. Lehecka didn’t win a game until late in the second set, and he had no chance in this match. It sets up a spot where I expect Sinner to have a tougher time but a similarly dominant performance.

Rublev got a walkover from Fils, and he made the finals in Hamburg. He has tremendously powerful groundstrokes, he hugs the baseline, and he has solid success on clay in the past (including a Monte Carlo title). It should make him competitive, but there are two slight liabilities in Rublev’s game and they will cost him majorly here. Rublev’s lateral movement is a little bit slow. He trades well from the baseline, but he’s a step slower than the pace when he’s not in control. Sinner’s ability to reflect and redirect power will make life difficult on Andrey. The other issue is that Rublev can get frustrated. A prime candidate for a frustrating situation is playing a guy who doesn’t seem to miss. I expect Rublev to go bigger and bigger trying to break down Sinner’s defense until he finds errors. There will certainly be some highlight points, and I don’t think he’ll be getting zipped, but this is one of those matches I don’t think Rublev has the defense to win. Rublev can sometimes be predictable on second serves also, and against a solid returner like Sinner this can be a problem. Overall, I think even the second tier of the tour is no longer a big threat to Sinner in a 3/5 format. Sinner in 3-4.

Bublik vs Draper :

There were three matches (Zverev/Cobolli, Bublik/Rocha, Shelton/Gigante) where the entire outcome rested on the underdogs ability to return serve. None of them were able to. Rocha may have been a bit flat after the marathon with Mensik, but he really had a struggle slowing down Bublik’s deft offense. Bublik in great form sets up one of the more entertaining matches of this round, Bublik vs Draper. Jack Draper is playing excellent, and he’s mirroring a lot of Nadal’s shot selection on clay which is making him really difficult to read. He has a great forehand down the line, his wide serve from the ad side makes him extremely hard to break, and he mixes in dropshots often enough to keep his opponents guessing. It isn’t just that he uses the dropshot either, he really has excellent feel for them. Joao Fonseca showed moments of promise, but his main plan is to hit through his opponent, and he doesn’t have the consistency to do that to Draper at this point.

In this next match, I don’t expect anyone to get shut out. Bublik is a free form player, and if he gets momentum he can definitely close out a set. He likes to rush the net and play a number of dropshots, and this will test Draper’s stamina. While he avoids baseline rallies, Bublik does have really high quality groundstrokes, and his compact backhand will be useful for dealing with Draper’s forehand. I actually don’t think he matches up too poorly at all here, but it’s hard to see him winning. The quality is there, and he’s playing great, but the last round showed that there are pronounced levels on tour, and Draper has been competing against the higher quality players and for the biggest titles. I think he’ll be able to defend a bit more often on big points than Bublik, and I’d give him a small edge here in the consistency department when he’s in control. Draper in 4-5. This is basically our era’s Kyrgios vs Nadal, and while Draper has an edge in the professionalism and shot selection, Bublik has the talent and serve to make things difficult. He’s also playing without expectations so he can probably navigate lost sets without really folding.

Zverev vs Griekspoor :

This is a familiar matchup. Zverev and Griekspoor have played each other 9 times. Zverev has won most of their clashes, but almost all of them have been close. Griekspoor matches up very well with Zverev because he’s very stable from the baseline and doesn’t give him much to work with. He isn’t a servebot by any means, but he has a powerful enough delivery to get a ball to swing at, and usually Zverev is content to defend once he’s lost control of a rally, which gives Griekspoor a chance to ply his solid groundstrokes. They’ve played twice on clay, a five setter here at Roland Garros in 2024 that ended in a fifth set tiebreaker, and recently in Munich in a match which went 7-6, 6-7, 6-4 to Zverev. I don’t expect much different here. Griekspoor is a solid performer, and he won’t have any doubt against Zverev. Zverev is really not in the business of shutting anyone out, and given the h2h record he’ll be aware this is a war, but confident that he’ll get another win.

There are two things working in Zverev’s favor this week. One is that Griekspoor just went 5 with Quinn. Ethan Quinn is a promising player, but it’s the type of match that Griekspoor at his best could wrap up in 3-4. He has a tendency to lock into a mediocre level when he knows he’s the better player, and while this works, there will be a sense of urgency in this round that I think a sprint in the last would have prepped him well for. The second factor is the big one for me, and that’s Zverev’s serving. Midway through the third set, Zverev’s first serve percentage was at 80%. That is a massive boost to his game. He looked like he had great control on his delivery, and that’s honestly impressive because it was fairly windy today (which affects the ball toss). If he’s serving like that, I think he can beat Griekspoor. Tallon has a great ability to play to the level of his opposition, but he tends to have a lot of tough service games against Zverev. He’ll need to be clutch here, and for a long time. Zverev is always at risk of losing his forehand belief, but this week he’s hitting it sharply cross-court and he’s been really solid behind his backhand. One of the reasons Cobolli had such a long (and short) day today was that he was just unable to score attacking that wing. Zverev in 4.

Norrie vs Djokovic :

This is a tough matchup, but Djokovic fans have to be happy with his progress thus far. He’s played guys who don’t pose a huge threat, and more importantly he’d gotten through them quickly. This is the first round where him losing wouldn’t be the wildest result of the season, but him being fresh increases the odds of him avoiding that. Norrie and Djokovic played in Geneva about two weeks ago, and it went to a deciding set. Djokovic has played better since then, and he obviously puts in a better level at majors, but Norrie is not an easy win unless you have masssive power and a huge first serve. His entire plan is to wear his opponent down, and he’s had a terrible season which oddly makes him fresher than usual for this. Norrie had a brief struggle in the second with Fearnley, but for the most part his defending was too much for Fearnley, and when Jacob was sent off the court he seemed a little too willing to go or bailout dropshots and down the line winners.
I expect Djokovic to come through here. Norrie can definitely hang in rallies, but Djokovic hits the ball bigger off both wings, and is a great returner. The situation from last round reverses here for me. Norrie is playing well, but I don’t think he’ll have a simple way to score points on Novak, and Novak is playing well enough and is fresh enough that he should have a full 4-5 sets in him. Add in that Djokovic can still dial up big serves when he needs them, and I think he can navigate this safely. Djokovic in 4.

Musetti vs Rune :

Navone played well in round three, but Musetti’s defense just makes it too hard for him to win in the major format. Every round I’ve mentioned that Musetti is playing well, but did you know that Musetti is playing well? This matchup vs Rune will be very interesting. Rune squeaked by against Halys, and it was another match where he seemed to be fluffying the ball up a lot of the time on his forehand. Holger was just able to expose Haly’s lateral movement enough to win, and his speed on defense make him a tough out, but I think he’ll have a very long day with Musetti. Lorenzo is not the most aggressive player, but he counters most strategies well. He returns serve well, he moves well and is solid at net in dropshot exchanges, and he serves decent. I’m expecting Rune to have the wider fluctuations in mood here, and I think Musetti’s defense will frustrate him into errors.

There’s been a trend of compact two-handed backhands defeating one-handers, and that’s one thing to look at here. Rune does very well against Tsitsipas because he isolates the one-hander, and I’m interested to see if he employs the same tactic here. The win isn’t out of the question for Rune at all, I just think Musetti has been slightly more fluid this week and he matches up well with Rune. Holger is a player whose level can vary wildly from match to match, so I expect him to step it up a bit here. Should be a great one. Musetti in 4-5.

Tiafoe vs Altmaier :

Korda seemed to be having back issues in his match, so the comeback was out of the question. If he was having back pain, it’s entirely possible that the straight set loss was the most he could muster. Something about the match felt familiar though. Korda has never come back from two sets down in his tennis career. He also really does look like he’s giving up when he’s down in the scoreline. He’s had injury issues, so the question is does he play through the pain? Or is he frequently injured and does he also fold. There just wasn’t much urgency in his play, and the level Tiafoe was playing at required more risks and more exertion from Korda.

Tiafoe is on a very unexpected run here, but it’s certainly welcome. Watching the bad Tiafoe lose is not amusing at all, and watching the good Tiafoe play is wildly entertaining. He goes for huge shots and lands them. He thumps T serves with ease, and in big moments he has a knack for taking pace off his delivery and hitting tricky kick serves that throw his opponent off. The last round was supposed to be the tough one, but this clash against Altmaier will probably be closer.
Altmaier moves better than Korda, and he sends a much different ball across the net. Altmaier’s game is all about big booming shots with height and spin. It’s the traditional clay-court game, where you use a ton of footwork to get full swings, and you try to wear your opponent down with multiple shots. It the perfect plan against Medjedovic, who was feeling under the weather and crashed out of the match pretty quickly. Medjedeovic played hyper-aggressive and ended up losing in a lopsided 4 sets. I’d love to say it was because of his physical condition, but he played exactly the same against Cerundolo. The difference was that Altmaier’s weight of shot was much heavier, and prevented Hamad from landing a high percentage of shots.

Altmaier and Tiafoe met in 2023 on clay, and it was a closer three set win for Tiafoe. I think we’ll be treated to an excellent match here. Altmaier is in the best form of any of the players Frances has played thus far, and he hits big enough and plays solid enough to make this a long day for Tiafoe. The upset is possible, but Tiafoe’s serve and forehand are a huge boost to his game. He’s too fast to score on easily when he digs in on defense, and his forehand is really biting the court when he goes cross-court. He’s a top 10 talent who can’t really get motivated for a whole season, but here he’s locked in. Tiafoe in 4-5. The ability to keep his opponent from playing on big points really helps him out in tight sets. It will be interesting to see if Altmaier has success by taking up a deeper return position, but Tiafoe has great hands at net so I expect him to be able to navigate that.

Popyrin vs Paul :

I’m a little confused at this point regarding Tommy Paul. He was reported to have abdominal issues, and looked like he was moving with difficulty at the end of the Fucsovics match. Khachanov misplayed some of the big points and ended up losing in 5, but Paul seemed to be moving well in that match and he was more effective on offense. By my math, an abdominal strain will make it tough to exert day after day, and Popyrin is actually play really well. That makes this a sneaky close spot. Popyrin had a pretty simple match against Borges, but I really liked the way he generated depth with his forehand from tough spots. On hardcourt he tends to smother the ball, but on clay he makes solid adjustments to his swing. Popyrin is serving really well here also, which gives him a slightly better chance than Khachanov. Where I don’t love Alexei’s chances are in the backhand exchanges. He has a huge forehand, but Paul’s backhand is just below the top tier of the tour and he tends to hang in those rallies without forcing anything.

For Popyrin to win this, he really needs Paul to be less than 100%. I could see him winning some tiebreakers and squeaking by, but if Tommy is as healthy as he was against Khachanov, he should win in 4. Either way, I expect someone to come through in 4. Fresh Paul is too solid, and injured Paul won’t be able to slow down Popyrin’s offense.

Shelton vs Alcaraz :

Dzumhur and Alcaraz produced not just some incredible rallies, but an incredible match of tennis. Speed is a big equalizer against Alcaraz, but I don’t really think Carlos dropping a set makes him vulnerable here. I do think that Shelton will compete well on offense. He was serving very well against Gigante, and has shown the ability to temper his offense on the slower clay. His result in Monte Carlo was an incredible surprise, but it appears that Shelton belongs in the conversation when discussing the top tier of tennis right now. Gigante wasn’t able to hit deep enough returns to escape trouble, but Alcaraz will. Shelton’s delivery and forehand are good enough that on some points, the opponent doesn’t matter. On the rest of the points though, his opponent is Carlos Alcaraz. His speed and defense are really next level, and I think he’ll be able to wear down Shelton and win via his error count. This will probably look close for a good stretch of the match because Alcaraz isn’t the best returner and because Shelton is playing at a really high level, but the conditions just favor Carlos a bit too much. Alcaraz in 3-4.

Sabalenka vs Anisimova :

This is the Ostapenko/Swiatek of Sabalenka’s draw. Amanda Anisimova has had a great deal of success against Sabalenka. Aryna’s weight of shot is exceptional, but Anisimova’s offense is sharp enough that her opponent often doesn’t get a full swing. Amanda won both their previous clay-court matches, and she’s playing solid right now. A 7-6, 6-4 win against Tauson will have her focused for this, but the upset is not really assured even though it’s a scary spot. Sabalenka looked really good against Danilovic, and holding Olga to 5 games takes a lot of defending. Sabalenka may have trouble defending against Anisimova, but she has greatly upped her game in the past two seasons and Anisimova’s clay wins were in 2022. Anisimova’s movement is not really good enough to deal with Sabalenka’s shotmaking, and the reverse appears to be true. Still, if they run a race, Sabalenka is likely to win. The ability to make a few more gets in a match between two huge offenses is often big, and can become especially palpable in a tiebreaker where a single minibreak means a huge swing in emotions and momentum. Alarm bells have to be going off for Sabalenka and her team here, especially since Anisimova won their most recent meeting on hardcourt. This is a good look at whether Sabalenka’s new level of play is good enough to reverse old matchup issues. I think she’ll be a bit more durable in a long match. Sabalenka in 3.

Samsonova vs Zheng :

Samsonova leads this h2h 4-2 (one walkover). This is bad news for Zheng because Samsonova is also playing incredible tennis right now. I watched her and Yastremska, and I was honestly surprised by how well Samsonova played on her backhand wing. She was rock-solid in baseline rallies, and she’s still crushing the ball with her forehand. I see a -300 pricetag for Zheng and I disagree. Zheng is playing some great tennis right now and came close to making the Rome final, but she can be a bit dense against power. This is a battle between two huge hitters, and usually Zheng would stand out to be as the more consistent player. Here I think Samsonova is just hitting a particularly good peak, and her familiarity and comfort against Zheng should be a small boost in a big moment. If Zheng can make this purely a moonball/slow tempo match, she can win. Samsonova can get into bouts of errors and lose confidence at times, and Zheng tends to play steady throughout a match. I just don’t see a major reason for Samsonova to implode here. She’s playing well, she’s coming off a finals run, and she’s playing a familiar opponent who is likely to flinch in a big moment after her loss to Gauff. Samsonova in 2.

Paolini vs Svitolina :

Bernarda Pera may have lost, but she played excellent. To hit past Svitolina and to do it consistently is a huge ask, and she was almost able to. 7-6, 7-6 is a tight win, but it’s a win and Svitolina will have another very difficult match on her hands here. This is where Paolini’s Rome title starts to work against her. Everyone wants to win a major, but there is some mental fatigue after a deep run, and the target on your back gets bigger which motivates your opponents. Nobody taps out, especially Paolini, but the “well it’s been a pretty good run” thought arises in the tournament following a title no matter who you are. Minor things, but I think they’re worth considering. Svitolina won their previous meeting, a lopsided 3 set win at the Australian Open. This is a tough matchup for Paolini because Svitolina plays a similar style but hits bigger. It’s going to be difficult to Paolini to score here, and Elina is more likely to land a few unreturned serves. These factors make this about even. Yes, some things are working for Svitolina, but Paolini is still exhausting to try to score on and I believe she’s faster than Svitolina. Expecting this to be close, and I don’t see an easy path for either to win, nor is there a reason for either to give up at any stage. Paolini in 3. A lot of tiny things are lining up for Svitolina to come through here, but she hasn’t had the same success at the majors that Paolini has, so this feels like a “prove it first” spot.

Rybakina vs Swiatek :

These are some incredible matchups. Rybakina has lost 4 of the last 5 against Swiatek. Guess where the win came? Stuttgart’s indoor clay saw Rybakina win in three. Here at Roland Garros, there is again a chance that Swiatek falls. Swiatek played well against Cristian, but the second set was very close. That’s not a great sign leading into a match against a player on a 7 match win streak, who just took out an opponent that Swiatek regularly struggles with (Ostapenko). Jelena tried a lot of different tactics (jk she just smashed away) against Rybakina, but none of it worked. Rybakina and Swiatek have two of the heaviest and most unplayable forehands right now, and it’ll be interesting to see that tug of war play out.

Swiatek will want to create angles as often as she can here to Rybakina’s backhand. It’s the weaker wing, and Rybakina’s forehand cross-court may be better than Iga’s. Rybakina will need to maintain depth on her groundstrokes, because Swiatek moving forward on a shot is nearly unplayable because of how much topspin she gets on her groundstrokes. The big key I think that lets Rybakina have a big chance here is that Swiatek is not really locating her serves well. Rybakina hits the ball huge on returns without really going for much. Her power clears the court fairly easily, and Swiatek really struggles with her service motion at times. I think she’ll have a difficult time holding serve, and since Rybakina has one of the best serves on tour (maybe the best when she’s on), this just feels uphill for Swiatek. Iga’s speed will allow her to win some extra baseline rallies, but I think she needs to.

It may not make sense, but this feels like the finals for Swiatek. For her to beat Rybakina here, she has to navigate one of the biggest offenses on tour, an opponent she’s had some trouble with before, during a time when she’s struggling for confidence. She has to expose Rybakina’s movement and land a high enough first serve percentage and a varied enough delivery that Elena doesn’t get in a rhythm. It’s possible from the best Swiatek, but it’s a big ask. I think the upset is likely. Rybakina in 3.

Andreeva vs Kasatkina :

Kasatkina arrived in Paris in terrible form, and is now into the 4th round. Badosa completely unravelled in their clash, and spent a good chunk of the time blaming her box for her errors. The level of deflection in pro tennis is pretty ridiculous, but at least the players doing it tend to lose. Andreeva had a much simpler time against Putintseva, and I think she’ll win this also. Andreeva may actually hit bigger than Kasatkina, and she definitely serves better. Both players will be looking to play long rallies and wear down their opponent, but Andreeva likely has a better chances of scoring quick points. Interestingly, they just practiced in RG this past week so there should be no surprises for either, and they’re good friends so both will play freely. I like Kasatkina’s run, I just think Andreeva has been playing at a high level all season and will be looking at this as a must-win opportunity. Andreeva in 2.

Boisson vs Pegula :

Boisson has basically launched herself on tour in the space of a week. There will be no shortage of wildcards for her after her inspired play here, and it isn’t exactly over. Pegula enters this match as the favorite, but Boisson’s strength is her ability to rally from the baseline behind powerful backhands. Her strengths are basically essential if you want to play Pegula, because Jessica plays almost every rally exactly the same way. She has clean and compact strokes, and though she hits the ball fairly flat, her consistency works for her on clay. Pegula navigated a tough test in Vondrousova, and her ability to finish strong there makes me think she can win this also. Boisson’s win against Mertens is enough to expect her to win 3-4 games per set, but I think Pegula is a level Boisson hasn’t really shown yet. Pegula in 2.

Keys vs Baptiste :

“Did you know that you are winning?” I said to my screen, while patting tiny Kenin on the head. Tiny Kenin stormed around angrily. “Having match points is good btw,” I offered to tiny Kenin, while patting her on her tiny shoulder. Tiny Kenin threw her racquet. “Being at duece on your opponents serve is a good situation btw,” I offered to tiny Kenin. Tiny Kenin then began gesturing to her box, indicating she had lost. In what was a rough end to a great match, Sofia Kenin came up short against Madison Keys. She had several match points at 4-5 in the third set, and Madison played some incredible points to win them. She went big on backhand winners, she hit some huge kick serves, and it felt like she was just hanging on. For understandable reasons, Kenin was frustrated, but I think her box composition was contributing to the struggle. Her father is her coach, and during the match he can often be seen holding his head in his hands, looking generally stressed out, and just offering no energy whatsoever. Maybe this relationship works for them, but their opinion about it might need a second opinion.

I am not Sofia Kenin, but I occasionally had my parent in the crowd during big matches early in my career. I just really hated losing in front of them. I felt like I was clawing against the inevitable sometimes, and I would feel tempted by tantrums and shake my head at them the same way Kenin did. Almost like letting that person down easy, breaking the news to them that “no, I can’t do it, I’m sorry.” Obviously your family or loved one wants you to win, and loves you if you win or lose. On the court though, if you’re feeling that pressure, it doesn’t help. Kenin is finding her best level again, but since she’s already had a full career (having won a major), she should be feeling more free. She should be the one who feels comfortable taking chances, and the one who can shrug off losses as all part of the journey. I don’t mean to single out Kenin here. The number one thing that’s lacking on the pro tennis tour is perspective. A lot of the players are not getting the instruction or influence they need in order to navigate the emotional swings that are involved in playing an individual sport.

Anyway, Keys is playing great. She’s set up here for a great offensive clash in a draw full of them. I thought Baptiste would get worn down by Bouzas Maneiro, but she played excellent. Her progress on tour this year has been incredible. To be entering this match with a chance against Keys in good form is excellent. I don’t think she can run quick enough to hold off Keys during rallies, and that will probably be the difference. With her powerful game, I think she can send one set into overtime though. Keys in 2.

Alexandrova vs Gauff :

These two have played a bunch, with Gauff winning most of the encounters, but they’ve never played on clay. It’s interesting to me because Alexandrova is the right type of player to take advantage of a slow serving day from Gauff, and because Gauff had a middling second set against Bouzkova last round. Alexandrova tends to play well once she’s on a run, so this is a big step up in opposition for Gauff. She’s coming off a finals run and playing well, but the forehand/serve issues can arise at any time. Alexandrova’s strength is her serve and her power. She’s a very aggressive returner and her backhand is probably her best shot. I don’t think she has any chance at all if Gauff is in control of rallies, but she will likely be able to break Gauff a few times which can makes things close. I’m hesitant to lean into a bunch of upsets because I already saw a few earlier, but Gauff will need to weather the storm to come through here. Gauff in 3.