2025 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Singles - Quarterfinals

Sinner vs Bublik :

Jannik Sinner has started to make the 2nd tier players on tour look harmless. He wasn’t as aggressive as he was against Lehecka, but he wore Rublev down and gathered unforced errors throughout the match in admirable fashion. Jannik had the attitude of a cat today, just getting low and running Rublev from side to side constantly. Nothing flashy (by his peak standards), but he had a clear game plan and it worked. When Rublev finally got in position to rip forehands, he sent them long. There is a theme in this article and it’s patience. When you want to get out of the rally, it really affects your shot quality and your decision-making. Rublev does need to go big to score on Sinner, but it felt like his opportunities caused him to get a little too excited. 1,3,4 sounds like a bad loss but it was a high quality match.

Up next for Sinner is probably the biggest surprise of the men’s tournament. Alexander Bublik is through to his first quarterfinal at a major, and he’s done it by playing excellent tennis. Draper looked a bit flat at times, and his forehand wasn’t as sharp as we’ve seen it this season, but Bublik deserves the credit here. Alex served well, was solid from the baseline, and he made absurdly good use of the dropshots. His dropshots are always a theme in his game, but today he varied them well and he was extremely accurate. There was a brief blip in the final game where Bublik seemed like he might fumble, but Draper sent a makable forehand long at 15-30. 

When the match was over, it was really nice seeing it sink in to Bublik. He always had that attitude early on that he didn’t care so much. He’s said before that he only plays for the prize money, and his “You’re 15 years old and play like this? Good job” comment to Sinner falls in line with a lot of press moments where he seemed to want to deflect from the pressure of losses and stave off the desire to win. Sure, he competes well at times, but excuses for losing are often a crutch for a player who wants it badly but isn’t sure if it will happen. This week, it happened. Seeing how moved he was and how happy he was to have the crowd roar for him got me emotional, and I hope it encourages him to keep going because he is one of the most entertaining players on the tour.

Can Bublik do damage to Sinner? Probably, but how much. He has a great serve, but Sinner is the best returner. He has a solid ground game, but he’ll have to dial up the pace in order to score and that can sometimes lead to errors. The dropshots will likely be effective because he plays them so well, but Sinner tends to hug the baseline so it’ll be risky to play them. Sinner basically has the answers to Bublik’s game, and while Bublik has been seeing how things go, Sinner has been grinding. This is a spot where Bublik will see how far off the top he is. It isn’t that far, but minor lapses in concentration and slight egoic choices (like not chasing a ball or two in the 3-5 game in the 4th against Draper and trying to play a fancy shot instead of converting the opportunity) will cost him. No shame in losing to Sinner, and I think he has a much better chance than Rublev to win a set because his serve is much better and his offense is more unpredictable. Still, this is a lucky quarterfinal for Sinner to receive and his team will have gameplanned this well. I expect Sinner to do the same thing he did against Rublev and just keep Bublik running until he wins. Sinner in 3-4.

Zverev vs Djokovic :

Interesting spot here. I often find my ideas about why someone will lose shifting during a tournament. Early on I thought Cobolli could wear down Zverev’s forehand, but I felt being able to win a set there was the same as being able to win the match. Either you can hold off Zverev’s serve and find his forehand, or he’s going to drag you down. Even if you get to tiebreakers, he tends to play a little freer in them and suddenly a few unreturned serves are a massive bonus. I felt Griekspoor would do okay in a loss, but he suffered an abdominal injury and had to withdraw down a set. It sets up a tricky match where I think Zverev’s weaknesses are his best chance to win.

Djokovic had a brief struggle at 3-3 in the second set. Norrie started to hit some return winners, and Novak gestured at the court and the ref for a while. Maybe he wanted her to have the court flattened/swept during the changeover? Things started to look close, but Norrie took a medical timeout for an ankle issue and was pretty ineffective from there. If you can’t run against Novak, you’re toast. He’s too accurate and when he knows he’s the more durable athlete, he plays patiently. Will he have that same patience in this next match? I’ve stressed Djokovic getting to this round fresh throughout the week, because I have seen in his game lately a desire to exit points. I mentioned this earlier, and it stands even for the GOATs of tennis : if you’re looking to shorten points, it affects your game in a negative way. Not wanting the ball to come back leads to stress. The bad bounces frustrate you. The moments where your opponent recovers from a bad position frustrate you. Djokovic is usually really good about resetting the rally in those times, but not this season. These are minor issues in an otherwise great game, but it feels here like Djokovic feels he needs to win every early set.

The reason I think this is a great spot for Zverev is because he plays so passive. Djokovic doesn’t really want to play long rallies constantly, but against Alex you don’t have a choice. Zverev’s backhand hits heavy enough to keep him safe, and while his forehand is a target, on clay he gets a little more time and the benefit of some bad bounces on the other end. I will say that Zverev has been hitting his forehand well cross-court this week, but it’s still the main liability. That stuff just adds up to him being just about even at best for me, but the wildcard here is Zverev’s serving. He’s landing his first serves at an incredible rate in every match so far, and he’s playing fairly aggressive when the returns fall short. It’s a spot where Djokovic doesn’t really want to win the match with 3-4 hours of defense, but it’s one where he has to. If he redlines and plays all out like he did at the Olympics, he may fare well in the early sets, but I don’t think he has 3 sets of all out tennis in him, and that risks him gassing out. 

Getting tired against Zverev is not the best plan, because his serve gets frustrating when you’re getting there late. I think here we’ll see Djokovic try to play measured tennis and avoid getting involved in too many fast paced points. The usual steady play with the occasional infusion of depth rather than pace. I haven’t seen a number of great dropshots from Djokovic this week, but Zverev’s deep court position and whippy forehand absolutely call for them. Djokovic is still serving well, but I worry that Zverev’s height and reach make him a decent returner here. I don’t know why I’m calling for Djokovic to be the less durable player when he got here without much wear and tear, but it seems like Zverev is playing his best here and his specific style is going to drag Djokovic into a long battle that ultimately will be won by cheap points on Zverev’s serve. RIP my inbox for calling for a potential GOAT loss. Zverev in 4-5.

Musetti vs Tiafoe :

The odds for this are larger than Musetti vs Rune (-240 vs -500 for Musetti) but I think this will actually be closer. Tiafoe is not a clay name and he’s had a rough season, but he is playing incredible tennis right now. He’s serving with aplomb, he’s crushing his forehand, and his speed is making it really difficult to score on him. Time and time again against Altmaier he was able to produce angles on his forehand cross-court that were so sharp Daniel didn’t even get to move. Tiafoe’s ability to serve big also will be very necessary here. The Musetti Rune matchup was highly anticipated, but Musetti was just a little more consistent on the day. He looked physically stronger, and again his defense and making his opponent play one extra ball is paying off. 

I think Tiafoe is better at hitting clean winners than Rune. He goes more aggressively, he has more faith in his forehand, and he gets to net more often. Musetti takes up a very deep return position, so Tiafoe will want to serve and volley a bit. Where I think Frances will get punished is on the second serve S&V. Musetti may stand deep, but he can generate a lot of variation in height, speed, and location from those spots on both wings. Tiafoe has a good kick serve but it doesn’t have a lot of pace, and if he stands back I think Musetti’s deep returns and the chipped up baseline may prove difficult. Tiafoe has a good overhead, great feel at net, and he can take his backhand both directions. I think he will make more unforced errors in this match than against previous opposition, but I don’t think he gets shut out. The guy is a great big-match player and this is a great opportunity for him where he has very little pressure and is playing his best.

Where I think Tiafoe loses is in neutral rallies on his backhand. Musetti can give you a lot of different looks, but he tends to not give you a lot of pace to work with. Tiafoe will have to supply his own power on his backhand, and doing so off of slices and low forehands is tough over a long match. Patience is again a key here. If Frances is looking to outlast Musetti and wait for opportunities on his backhand side, I think he’ll do a bit better. If he’s trying to create, I think he’ll force things and come up short. Musetti in 5.

Paul vs Alcaraz :

It’s been really nice seeing Tommy Paul constantly making great runs at the majors. He plays an extremely entertaining game and competes well even in losses. Here, I think he’ll have a tough time, but there were some developments that I think are connected to his injury that I like. Tommy has a slight abdominal issue this week. I don’t know if it was connected of if he just wanted to find Popyrin’s backhand, but he hit a ton of kick serves in the last match. Normally Tommy is dialing up the pace on his delivery a good chunk of the time, but last round he went with kick serves. When the returns came back, he hit heavy topspin. It was a slightly less aggressive approach, and it worked. Popyrin had highlight moments, but he started to run around his backhand and take big rips at the ball, and he got punished by Tommy’s backhand down the line over and over. It’s obviously different but it reminds me partially of Nadal’s approach to clay. Sure the heavy topspin forehand isn’t going right past you, but when you try to play aggressively off of it you telegraph your shots and you miss.

This next match feels too tough for Paul because he’s not 100%. Alcaraz and Shelton played highlight level tennis for the entire match, and I think Carlos has another gear. He’s like a big puppy. He wants to play and have fun, but when he knocks over a lamp (when he looks at the scoreline and realizes he’s down), he gets sad. Anytime Alcaraz needed a point, he just hit the ball to Shelton’s backhand until he won. Ben has made incredible progress in the offseason on his fitness and strength, and it allows him to play that aggressive style for a whole match. He also worked on his backhand and hits it much more solid now. The next step is to be able to take it down the line and to create short angles with it. Until he can punish Alcaraz a bit for predictable forehands cross-court, I think he’s gonna have a tough time in this matchup.

Tommy always plays well, and he just took a set off Sinner in Rome when we all thought Sinner would smoke him, so I’m not insisting on an Alcaraz straight sets win here. I just think Tommy needs his full arsenal to hang here, and Alcaraz will be able to wear him down. I’ll add also that Popyrin was like 9/10 on break points midway through the second set, so that straight set wins is slightly misleading. Alcaraz in 3-4.

Sabalenka vs Zheng :

This is a rematch of the Rome quarterfinal that saw Zheng get her first win against Sabalenka (she was 0-6 prior). Zheng is definitely bringing the same level into this but I think Sabalenka is much better this week. She was really aggressive against Anisimova and created good angles inside in on her forehand. I think this is key because Zheng tends to defend better to her backhand side. Aryna defended well against an offense that’s maybe more aggressive than Zheng and managed to win in straight sets, and while levels vary from match to match I have really liked everything Sabalenka has done this past week. I watched the whole Rome match (I had taken Zheng to win that and Zheng to win the tournament) and I can honestly say it was 50/50 at best. Zheng got lucky on some key points, and Sabalenka started to laugh it off at some point that she was running so poorly (as far as luck). This is a bigger event, and Sabalenka was at the end of a long run of tennis in Rome and also a long run of beating Zheng. The main reason I looked at the upset there was that it had a lot of combining factors to be a letdown spot. Here it feels like the pressure is on Zheng.

Samsonova and Zheng was a great quality match. The first set was a tug of war, and these two exchanged 9 breaks while playing extremely aggressive tennis. Samsonova playing consistently is excellent for the tour, and hopefully she keeps it up. Keys in this next match are shot selection. Zheng can get a little stubborn about going for backhands over the high part of the net (down the line). She hits it well, but when she’s fatigued she can lose accuracy. Both are serving very well, but I think Sabalenka’s delivery is a bit sharper here than in Rome. Zheng saved all 5 break points she faced there, and that’s a hard streak to continue. This should be close due to Zheng’s newfound confidence in this matchup and her overall great level, but I think that Sabalenka at her best is just a bit better. Sabalenka in 2.

Svitolina vs Swiatek :

Svitolina Paolini was overshadowed by Rybakina Swiatek, but these two matches were completely worthy of being finals. Svitolina will be extremely happy to be here, as most of the time she would be out of the tournament. Paolini was up a set and serving for the match, and not really in bad position. Svitolina managed to play some incredibly clutch tennis from there to win a tiebreaker, and Paolini was just a bit less powerful in the third set. I always find it interesting to see how players play when their choices in technique break down in big moments. Everyone hits beautiful topspin and slices and moves the ball well, and then when there’s a big point or it’s late in the match, players tend to just want to slap off-forehands and hope the ball slides. This is basically what Svitolina did as the match dragged on, but it’s her best shot. She’s able to torque her body on the inside-out forehand and do serious damage, and Paolini (once the edge was off) couldn’t really generate the same type of quick and chaotic offense in the third set.

No one is really expecting Svitolina to beat Swiatek here. Iga was in trouble against Rybakina, and these two played incredibly. The highlights from this match (check out House of Highlights on Youtube for some excellent 10-11 minute cuts) are world-class stuff. It was two of the best forehands in the game hitting cleanly and going toe to toe for two and a half hours. I loved it. The problem for Svitolina is that that last round was the one where Swiatek could crack. Being down in the scoreline and her recent losses could make her play a little tense, but once she saw the finish line she just immediately turned back into the player that’s won 4 Roland Garros titles. She was extremely active with her footwork, and rather than forcing winners she hit shots that got her a full swing at the next ball. That probing offense and heavy topspin occasionally gets you passed, but it also wears down your opponents since that type of scrambling is what can get any athlete a little winded.

I think Svitolina will do well here in baseline rallies, and she’s much faster than Rybakina, but I’m not sure where she’ll score points. Similarly, Swiatek will have to play a careful and conservative game in order to avoid letting Svitolina’s defense seem like a great option, but it’s just a matter of patience and timely aggression for her. The match is on her racquet, and Svitolina may be a little fatigued from her battle with Paolini. Swiatek in 2.

Andreeva vs Boisson :

If you want to watch a fun game, go check out the final game of the Boisson Pegula match. It was an 11 minute long roller coaster, which is fitting because that’s what their match was. Boisson just pulled off the biggest upset of her career, and forget landing herself on tour, her legacy is basically already secure just off this run. She’s been so gutsy about going or shots, she’s constantly going for big serves, and her skill and sensibility are paying off. There have been times where she wasn’t able to hit the perfect shot, so she just landed it as best as she could. In an early round, that gets you punished, but in big moments it works. When you’re on defense in a big point, you’re taking the position where no matter what, you can get a racquet on the ball. You’re prepping to return a great shot. When your opponent leaves it short, or just hits a stick volley instead of a deep one, it should be a setup, but it takes a moment to adjust. Pegula ended up missing some easy shots because she was trying to make sure she got a play on the ball, and Boisson’s willingness to hit one more shot and defend paid off. I will say that there was a break point at the end of the match where Boisson framed a ball and hit a perfect dropshot, but honestly she deserved the win because to navigate that moment against such a high quality opponent is just incredible.

Can Boisson beat Andreeva? I don’t think so, but the wins she has tell a different tale. Mertens vs Andreeva? Pegula vs Andreeva? These aren’t matches where the young phenom is a lock. Where I think Andreeva will thrive in this match is in the skill exchanges. Andreeva doesn’t hit as big as Pegula, but she’s sharper at net. She has slices and moonballs and variation on her backhand that Pegula doesn’t. She plays lobs well, and her work in dropshot exchanges is solid. I just think Boisson’s variety has been giving her opponents trouble because they’re not sure what to expect, but Andreeva has ironed out these technical skills after a long career in the juniors.

Andreeva is looking to work multiple shots to win points, and while Boisson’s defense has frustrated many players, I do find that she leaves her slice a little short (which is tough because Andreeva holds her backhand well and takes it both directions from there), and her forehand gets also lack a little depth at times. Andreeva can work a little better off these balls in the mid-court even if they’re hit on angles because she hits with more topspin than Pegula. It’s easier for her to go down the line and still land the ball in, whereas Pegula tends to have to go cross-court on these. This has been a great run, and Boisson’s ceiling is unestablished as long as she keeps winning. For me, I think Andreeva wins in 2-3.

Keys vs Gauff :

Keys and Gauff played in Madrid last year, and Keys won in 3. Madrid has high altitude, and servers tend to do better there. Power and serving are less important in Paris, but a win is a win. There is no way for this to be easy for Gauff. She zipped Alexandrova in the first set, but the second was 7-5. The question is how well Gauff can serve here. She landed some great serves against Alexandrova, but she had a few double faults as well. 59% first serves isn’t bad, but you can usually expect Keys to be higher than that (she was 67% against Baptiste). It’s a spot where the surface favors Gauff and her defense, but holding onto leads might be tough. Keys is hitting big and playing with focus which is very impressive after her AO win.

In thinking about this, I’m almost starting my analysis in a third set. I don’t think Gauff will play well enough behind her forehand to win in two, and Keys hasn’t been shutting anyone out thus far. Baptiste played well, but 6-3 7-5 isn’t a scoreline that makes you think Keys can blank Gauff. So who is better in a third if it gets there? I’m asking you, because I really don’t know. Early in matches this week Gauff has really played solid. It’s an overall game, but her usual forehand troubles aren’t there early. She’s hitting it really sharply and creating cross-court angles, and this is usually enough to mean her opponent has to win long rallies to win a point. One last patience mention, but Alexandrova clearly looked like she wanted to escape points, and it led to some great winners but also some errors. It also makes the job easy for Gauff. If she knows you’re trying to create, she can just lean into backhands all day and win behind her footspeed.

For me, this is the stage of Gauff’s career where she’s still slightly beatable. Her forehand and serve technique are issues, but they get slightly better every season. Keys right now has the power and serving to be the more consistent producer as the match drags on, but is she in good enough shape to play her best in a third? When this match goes two sets I’m going to feel dumb, but someone in three. Someone. I get that I have to name a someone. I’m gonna say Gauff. The courts are just a bit too slow for Gauff to get discouraged and Kenin almost navigated past Keys with a lot less athletic prowess. Gauff in 3.