2025 Roland Garros Men's Singles - Round One

Sinner vs Rinderknech :

For Sinner fans, this is a pretty good draw. The usual suspects will appear down the road, but he should have a minimal workload for the first two rounds. This is vital because the main issue for him right now is letting the blister on his foot heal. With top tier healthcase, you can heal a blister in about a week. He’s had this week off , but the area will still be tender so him and his team will want a soft start. Rinderknech provides that, despite being a great player. Playing a guy who serve-volleys a lot of the time keeps the points short, and honestly Arthur is not a significant threat in the rallies because he’s a little bit slow. This is a server going against the best returner on tour. The next round against Atmane/Gasquet is likely to have more baseline rallies, but neither of them possess the type of firepower necessary to really make Sinner exert.

Prior to the blister, the main question mark for Sinner is how sharp he’d be. He had a great showing in Rome, and only looked fatigued in the match against Cerundolo (which he won in straights). Getting a few matches in at that event was vital, and I don’t really see anyone besides Alcaraz beating him here. Jannik clearly was in the gym during the layoff as he’s gained a bit of muscle, and he has enough safe rounds of tennis here to get to Fokina/Lehecka in good form. I wouldn’t say that Jannik played his best tennis in Rome (there were some patches of unforced errors and timing issues on his forehand), but he didn’t exhibit any huge weaknesses, and I think the unforced errors will disappear by the time he gets deep in this draw.

A break from the tour is supposed to leave you slightly rusty, but Sinner won the Australian Open twice already so his team clearly knows how to manage time off from competition. I don’t see a better team on the men’s side right now. Vagnozzi and Cahill have created a well balanced player with great composure on court and they’ve shored up his stamina issues. The interactions between him and his box during matches are efficient and informative, which is something that professional tennis lacks a good chunk of the time. I’m excited about this era of tennis, because Sinner has hit a tier of tennis very similar to some of the big 3, and has also been the first to bring that level as consistently as them. Sinner in 3.

Atmane vs Gasquet :

It’s both unfortunate and fortunate here that two French wildcards are playing each other. If Gasquet wins, it’s unfortunate because he’s doing so at the expense of an up and coming talent, and also because he’ll be exiting the second round anyway. If Atmane wins, it’s fortunate that he got a chance to play an aging champion, and a second round result at a major for him is big since he’s ranked right on the edge of the tour (121 currently).

This should be a really close matchup. Atmane has good cardio and winning 3 set matches has been a hallmark of his ascent, so even if he’s down early against the quality of Gasquet he should maintain a certain level of belief and competition. Atmane is a lefty who plays in the traditional patterns and isolates his opponents backhand. It can take a while to wear Gasquet’s backhand, but lefty vs one-handed backhand is a classic matchup that usually favors the lefty. Both of them have been playing well lately, with Atmane having wins against Galan and Gaston, and Gasquet having defeated Arnaldi in 3 in Monte Carlo before losing a close 3-setter to Altmaier.

At the end of the day, Gasquet is better but the format and conditions favor Atmane. He’ll have a chance to bring endurance into it, and Gasquet has lost a bunch of deciding sets lately. It sort of mirrors the Wawrinka decline. These guys can still play great tennis, but the options available to them in the 2nd and 3rd hour of a match are thin. They start to hit more slices to get time to recover position, and as your legs go so does your serve. I don’t expect Atmane to have a quick way to generate points since Gasquet is so solid and skillful, but I think this will turn into a bonus as he inadvertently drags Gasquet into frequent long exchanges. Atmane in 4-5.

Lehecka vs Thompson :

Good Jiri Lehecka looks like a contender for titles, but he really has not been a consistent performer. Injury retirements have plagued him in the past, but this season that doesn’t even seem to be the issue. He just seems very susceptible to losses in early rounds, and tends to play overly aggressive at times. Today he lost to Etcheverry in Hamburg, which is fine, but Tomas has really struggled to win matches lately. We can point at the win against Cerundolo the round before as a good sign, but Francisco was in a rush to exit that event. He looked as if he was just checking that all his parts functioned before heading to RG, and he was quick to exit most rallies with dropshots.

Even with all the struggles, Lehecka should still beat Thompson. His technique is much more suited for clay, his background coming from the Czech Republic means he’s comfortable on clay, and he has a lot more power. Thompson is mainly looking to wear players down and frustrate them into errors by moving the ball around, but he’s fairly harmless on clay. He hits the ball flat on his backhand so it doesn’t travel through the court or get bad bounces, and his forehand is a bit nerfed here. It’s a fortuitous first round for Lehecka, but he hasn’t really shown the ability to dismiss lower tier challengers with ease. It might sound odd, but you’re almost better off scaling back your offense against a less dangerous opponent, simply because they won’t be able to create much scoreboard pressure when you’re not taking chances. Lehecka in 3-4.

Davidovich Fokina vs Llamas Ruiz :

ADF is coming into Roland Garros in good form. He lost quickly to Cobolli, but most of the actual threats in this draw are not looking to grind a 250 the week before a major. He played well against Monfils, and he respectfully made his exit. It’s funny that he and Cerundolo did something similar, and they both have a tricky first round. Llamas Ruiz is really solid, and has shown the ability to pull upsets. He defeated Gaubus in the final round of qualifying, and he’s been adept at finding a way to win sets at the Challenger level. If this were a 2/3 match, he’d have a better chance, but ADF is much more physically strong at this point in their careers and more familiar with the situation. Fokina in 4.

Rublev vs Harris :

Rublev is in the finals of Hamburg, so he should have control of this match. Harris is a surprise qualifier since his best work is usually on fast courts, but his serve, forehand, and athletic ability make it tough to hit through him. Where Rublev can thrive here is that his attack comes from both wings. He doesn’t have to give Harris a break, and I think Harris’ backhand will break down eventually. Fatigue after a finals/title run can occur, but Rublev has been struggling for so long I think he’ll be happy for the chance to compete on a win streak. Rublev in 3-4.

Walton vs Marterer :

Good run for Marterer. I’ve been watching this guy for 5-6 years and it’s always puzzling why he can’t get on tour. He’s a tall lefty who moves well and has huge power. He serves well also. Maybe it’s a lack of variety, and maybe it’s about defensive ability on the varying surfaces, but he remains stuck outside the top 100. This draw will help that a lot. Walton is not that experienced on clay, and hasn’t been that active. Marterer qualified in a really deep draw, so I expect him to win here. Marterer in 4.

Carabelli vs Munar :

One of the best matches of the first round that no one will watch. Ugo Carabelli and Jaume Munar are true clay-court specialists, and both have managed to figure out how to earn hardcourt wins after arriving on tour which I really respect. Munar has great improved his serving and physical fitness, and this season is probably his best ever in terms of competing at the higher levels. He has wins against Korda, Shelton, Tiafoe, and he even beat Novak (Dennis). The big hole in his game is that he doesn’t hit the ball as big as most of the players on tour, so he has to do a lot of running and play very careful. This makes him a bit pushy at times, and that lack of offense gives Carabelli an even shot here. They’ve traded wins in the past, but Carabelli beat him last season in Buenos Aires and has a decent shot here.

I would normally like Munar, but his attitude during difficult periods on court has been poor, and the French crowd does enjoy poking any bears that wander into the stadiums. Having the last loss (which was largely considered an upset) on his mind, I think patches of struggle will make him a bit reactive which may hurt his game. I think Carabelli will get the crowd, and I like him to win a close match where his emotional stability gives him an edge. Even while writing this I am completely aware that this is storytelling; this is a spot where both are playing well, and neither should really be able to pull away, so I’m pointing to the only glaring weakness on the court. In truth, this has roller coaster 5 set tug-of-war written all over it. Carabelli in 5.

Jarry vs Fils :

Jarry is struggling with vertigo and he has taken months to start winning matches this season. It’s good to see him playing well again, because he is a giant human with a cool serve (almost no backswing) and a powerful game. He also wears cool nose strips which remind me to breath (are you breathing? breath some). He’s like that guy in the commercial who’s like “hey kid” and throws the towel but instead he throws some nose strips and maybe he feels nauseous so you get him some vestibular rehabilitation therapy. Fils is one of the only guys on tour that can actually compete at the top tier because he has world class speed, and a commitment to going for his shots. He takes huge rips at the ball, and doesn’t back off because he’s missing. This results in him losing a lot of first sets, but finding his range in the second and rolling from there. Here, I think he’ll win in a similar fashion. Jarry’s top gear can score, but if he’s not serving well Fils’ pace and variety will expose his movement (he’s 6’7”). Fils in 3.

De Minaur vs Djere :

Laslo Djere is very capable of competing at the next level, but winning seems to elude him. He hits the ball solid, he plays in careful patterns, and he moves well. He serves better than average for a clay-court specialist, and he has a good attitude on court, it just seems like a lack of variety hurts him against the better players. De Minaur’s style of hitting the ball isn’t ideal for clay since he plays a flatter shot and doesn’t generate much pace on his backhand, but this season he’s really been efficient about winning matches he’s supposed to. Alex has been one of the best gatekeepers on tour for a long time, but doing so on clay is a good step. He’s had a shaky run (by his standards) since his knee injury last season, so getting back into strong form and ironing out the timing issues is good. Unforced errors have cost him recently in those types of matches where you’re sure he’s going to wear down his opponent, and you can only play clutch tennis for so long so a run of wins will help him shake that off. 

This should be a long match with one winner. De Minaur is fast enough to run down Djere’s shots, but Djere’s weight of shot will make it tough for Alex to impose himself. I expect this to be a cardio battle, with De Minaur’s speed and ability to neutralize and utilize the dropshot causing Djere to be stuck trying to knock him over. De Minaur in 4.

Bublik vs Duckworth :

Duckworth did win a challenger on clay this season, but it didn’t mean much last week as he crashed out to Bertola in the first round in Geneva. Remy Bertola doesn’t really win at the tour level yet, so it was a rough loss. I don’t think he’s likely to turn it around against Bublik, who has actually bothered to play some tennis in the past few weeks. Alex dropped back to the Challenger level, won matches, and has wins against Altmaier, Etcheverry, Arnaboldi, and Bu. These are names that wouldn’t generally be impressive, but for Bublik to beat guys who want to grind from the baseline means he’s at his best. It’s also perfect prep to play Duckworth, who serves decent but mostly just wants to wear down his opponents. Bublik in 3-4.

Basilashvili vs Rocha :

Basilashvili seems like he’s playing his best tennis again, and he cruised through qualifying without dropping a set. He’ll be favored to beat Rocha, but Rocha won their only meeting in three last year. That match featured two tiebreakers, so there’s a chance Rocha is more competitive than some may expect. Basil’s game being so powerful and his losses being due to unforced errors will likely help him in the 3/5 format, but I expect the early sets to be competitive. Basilashvili in 4-5.

Muller vs Mensik :

Muller had a good showing in Hamburg this past week, defeating Zverev in a close match and then losing in 3 to FAA. He’s an ideal candidate to beat any struggling name on tour because of his style, but doesn’t really blow anyone off the court. Muller tends to lock into a level of hitting that’s solid enough to keep him from getting blasted off the court, and safe enough that he doesn’t really make errors. It reminds me a little of Djokovic (don’t kill me) only in terms of his ability to find and maintain a level, but it makes him able to win some matches you wouldn’t expect. A lot of guys try to redline and play a game they don’t possess against higher tier opponents, but Muller just says “prove it” to them. At the 250 level, this is a great plan. In a major, idk. 

Jakub Mensik is having his best season ever, his serving has improved, and he’s looking confident. Beating Djokovic in the finals of Miami was one of the best moments of his career, and it was the best level of tennis he’s displayed. Mensik is a guy whose early losses came partially from having to compete at his physical limit, so seeing him add strength and conditioning to his arsenal is great for the tour. Muller will play a similar level of baseline tennis to Mensik, but I don’t think he’ll get as many free points. It’s such an uphill battle to earn all your points against a guy who’s getting 1-2 quick points on his serve every game. Mensik has a good chance to make the second week here, and this is a good look at where his game is at. Mensik in 3-4.

Hurkacz vs Fonseca :

The first time I saw Fonseca play I declared him King of the Moon. I was very impressed. Unfortunately, it appears he is used to moon gravity, and unforced errors have become the main cause of his losses. I don’t really mind his approach, as he’s aiming high with his game and it’s likely to come to fruition. Fonseca has really good feel on return of serve, good hands and adjustments at the net and for finesse shots, and he has a stable base that lets him go huge from tough positions. He’s also under 20 though, so he’s not physically strong enough to bring his best tennis all the time. His losses at the Challenger level were all against guys who could defend and drag things out, and on tour most of those guys can also hit the ball pretty big. As such, Fonseca is likely to have an easier time winning matches on faster courts early in his career.

Joao has a good enough serve to be competitive here, and two weeks ago he would have been a heavy favorite, but Hubert has started to look like himself again. He has wins against Fritz, Mensik, and Martinez in the past month and he’s still alive in the Hamburg draw. The long week could help Fonseca, but this is a case of two players trending in the opposite direction.

Fonseca has had a tough run of early draws, but has lost all three matches on clay so far in this European swing. Paul, De Jong, and Maroszan are solid opposition, but the Fonseca hype is falling a bit short. Since phenoms tend to have a big breakout stretch and then slump for a while, it’s unclear when Joao will get back to winning. Coaches map out a new players game, and as their stock rises opponents compete harder against them because it becomes a slightly more valuable win. Every match is important to these guys, but it’s hard to deny the added motivation when you’re capturing a valuable Pokemon.

Fonseca is the better player from the baseline, and errors are something both fall to at times. Hurkacz’s serve is good enough and his form is solid enough that his side is assured here. Fonseca’s return quality is his path through, but he’ll need to temper his aggression. Hurkacz does not like being trapped in long rallies, so Fonseca’s team will need to stress patience with Joao. If he plays around the level he did against Tommy Paul, he can win, but it’s hard to overlook current form based just on potential ability. Hurkacz in 4-5.

Herbert vs Bonzi :

This has potential to be close, but Bonzi has won all 5 of their previous matchups. The only saving grace for Herbert is that none of them were on clay and he’s been grinding the clay circuit lately while Bonzi has not played in a month. Skipping a major when you’re on the fringe of the tour is not something players are going to do, so there’s a question mark about Bonzi’s health here. He has a much better backhand than Herbert, and will be familiar with Pierre’s offense, so he should win on a slow court. Herbert has had a long career of finding ways to win sets, so I’m expecting (if Bonzi is healthy) Bonzi to win in 4-5.

Monfils vs Dellien :

This is a tough matchup for both. Dellien serves way better in the first round than he does deep in a tournament, but Monfils is an excellent returner. Dellien wears down his opponents with strong forehands directed mostly to their backhand, but Monfils arrives exhausted and never folds. Gael should be better in just about every category, but his passive play and his middling stretch of play the past month make him a flight risk. I don’t see an easy way for either to score, so this will come down to who plays the big points better and whose game lasts longer. I’ve watched Dellien win the first set with perfect play only for his serve to fall off late in the match to really believe in the upset here. It’s possible of Monfils doesn’t dig in, but his home major seems like a spot where he’d want to play, and Dellien losing deciding sets when he’s an underdog has been a theme on tour in the past few seasons. Monfils in 4-5.

Bellucci vs Draper :

Bellucci’s level can fluctuate wildly, but he’s a good lefty who’ll likely remain on tour for a long time. If he ever struggles, he can probably switch places with Herbert to throw off his opposition. Here, he is most likely toast. Draper has somehow shored up his stamina issues, and has also figured out how to play clay-court tennis effectively. His patterns are eerily similar to Nadal, and echoing the clay-court GOAT’s shot selection is a pretty smart move. His forehand crosscourt works well because it kicks up high, and he’s able to take the ball down the line on the run which makes it dangerous for his opponents to create short angles with their backhand. His backhand cross has a nice sharp angle and he keeps it low which is effective, and when he goes down the line the topspin keeps it just out of the strikezone enough to not make it a major liability. On hardcourt, this shot is more vulnerable. Jack also has surprisingly good dropshots, and he’s found a nice control of his serve where he’s only dialing up the big power on key points. 

Draper has a good chance of making the quarters here, and is hinting at being a real threat for hardcourt titles in the future. Lefty vs lefty can always be tough to navigate, but he has more firepower here and is in good form, while Bellucci has been hit or miss this season. Draper in 3-4.

Zverev vs Tien :

Learner has yet to really make an impact on clay, but he competes well and the results will come. He doesn’t really have the power or the serving to score easily, so right now his best route on the dirt is to just outlast opponents. Here, he has an opponent whose biggest mistake is thinking he can outlast opponents. Zverev has a level of self-absorption that seemingly has him at capacity for ideas. There is no room for anything else in there. No room for dropshots, even though all he does is hit the ball hard enough to keep his opponents behind the baseline. No room for serve and volley, even though he has one of the best serves on tour and doesn’t maintain any advantage once a moderately deep return is put in play. No room for self-awareness, as recently he told press he’s an aggressive player during a rant about slower fluffy balls. The idea that one of the most prolifically timid pushers on tour would consider himself a shooter is the reason the blinking white guy meme was made. Anyway, the point is there’s no room! There’s just no room!

Zverev’s work in the gym and his tennis ability continue to drag him forward, and his lack of belief (ego is not belief) and refusal to listen to coaches (as first evidenced by his interactions with them at the UTR events) keep him from reaching that next tier, but he still is in the mix for the title here. The format favors his passive play, as he has more time to wear down his opponents. The format favors someone who’s physically strong enough to grind for two weeks. The format places a huge bonus on being able to earn cheap points, which his serve tends to in the second week of an event.

The only issue here for Alex is that his forehand technique has become an issue. At times he’s concentrating so much on the technique that he loses depth, and at other times he becomes predictable because he won’t accelerate on the shot. You see this with Gauff also. Once they lose confidence in that wing, they’re only willing to swing moderately hard cross-court. Anytime they go down the line, they just guide the ball in. An opponent who hits a good straight backhand off that shot is going to be able to almost completely ensure that Zverev/Gauff are going cross-court off that shot, and since they can lean on the backhand they also know the depth isn’t going to be there. Expect Djokovic/Sinner to both employ this tactic if Zverev gets that far, and for his main chance at beating either player to be serving lights out. It’s possible, and Zverev has played some decent tennis this season, but in terms of “why you are losing”, the answer has been the same for Zverev. This draw is honestly primed to expose that, so it’ll be interesting to see how he navigates his nightmares. He plays Cerundolo in the 4th round if they both win through, and Franciscio has been able to break Zverev’s forehand down in almost all their meetings. Zverev in 3.

De Jong vs Passaro :

Passaro didn’t look great in Rome, but he beat Tseng. He got a fortuitous draw then, as Dimitrov was not healthy and let himself get beat. He headed to a Challenger event after, and again didn’t play his best, but he beat Gomez and Darderi before having to withdraw against Bu. Passaro is in that next tier after Arnaldi/Cobolli, so his arrival on tour is somewhat expected, I just haven’t really felt like the level he’s playing at should be having results. Here he plays Jesper De Jong, whose name is neat and that makes me somewhat like his game. De Jong plays like a hybrid of Ruud and Rune, but a smaller version. He has a great forehand and that’s most of his offense. He’s at his best on clay, and while his backhand isn’t really dangerous (the Ruud aspect), it’s solid. Passaro definitely has more power and aggression here, but I think unforced errors may cost him. Their previous match went to 3, and included two tiebreakers, so this is one both will think they can win. Passaro’s unforced errors will likely cost him as De Jong is generally able to maintain the same level throughout a match. The withdrawal against Bu may have been to save energy for RG, but that’s a bit of projection and any physical malady will be tough to navigate in the 3/5 format. De Jong in 4-5.

Cilic vs Cobolli :

Cilic managed to get a lucky loser spot here after Lloyd “Don’t call me Lloyd” Harris defeated him in 3 in the final round of qualifying, but he gets a tough opponent. Cobolli is in the finals of Hamburg right now, and while many players drop out after a title run, Cobolli had a really tough start to the year so he’s not withdrawing from anything. He’s playing well, he’s ripping his forehand, and he has shrugged off the nightmare form that saw him launching double faults and spraying errors. It’s hard to really say what was going on in those times, but clay seems to be giving him the extra moment to find his timing and that’s translated into wins. Cilic’s offense and serving will keep this close at times, but I think he’ll get worn down eventually. Cobolli in 4.

Arnaldi vs Auger-Aliassime :

This is one of the toughest first rounds, but it only became so last week. FAA has pretty much followed Shapovalov’s progression on tour. First, become one of the best players on tour. Then, lose constantly while making unforced errors and double faults. It’s a formula for success that is tried and true. Honestly, I don’t really like it. Felix is so much fun to watch when he’s winning, and when he’s losing it looks like he just doesn’t want to deviate from plan A. The same goes for Shapovalov. They seem to enjoy tennis a lot, but when the errors begin they don’t stop. Conversely, the moment FAA finds his serve and starts hitting the court, he’s a top 20 talent again. He beat Altmaier, Perricard, and Muller this week, losing today to Rublev in a vaguely competitive straight set affair. This all adds up to him having a pretty good chance against Arnaldi.

Arnaldi lost in Geneva to Novak, who looks like he’s elected to win the title there. Djokovic playing well is a welcome sight, and I wouldn’t take much away from Arnaldi because he lost the runback (he defeated Djokovic in Madrid). Felix wins behind his serve, and it’s a much more dangerous delivery than Arnaldi possesses. He’s going to have a slightly easier time holding serve, and his forehand is the biggest shot on court. Where I think he’ll struggle is in neutral rallies. Arnaldi is more disciplined, better defensively, and he’s just been at a high level on tour for a longer period. Passaro De Jong feels like a similar case, and while the offenses (FAA/Passaro) can win, it’s hard to see them doing so over a long match. Despite backing Arnaldi here, I don’t think he’ll be able to get past Felix quickly as he doesn’t really play an overwhelmingly offensive brand of tennis. Arnaldi in 5.

Cerundolo vs Diallo :

Cerundolo checked out of Hamburg quickly and without much fuss, and it’s an okay decision as this is his best chance at a major. He’s having a great year, he’s hitting the ball clean, and he’s in good shape. This is a terrible first round for him though. Cerundolo tends to win with his power and his stability. He has a really strong base and can generate length from anywhere, and his net clearance is minimal so it’s tough for opponents to create. Against a defensive player, he can dominate. Here, the neutral rallies that Cerundolo can control aren’t likely to be a thing. Diallo mirrors Fils a bit in that he goes big on every shot. He has a huge serve, and despite being mainly known as a server in his early career, he has had some solid results on clay, including wins against Bergs, Norrie, and Majchrzak. I don’t expect him to win here, but the constant onslaught is something that can sometimes frustrate Cerundolo, and Diallo’s serving is world class. Diallo won their previous meeting, but it was on hardcourt. Still, the belief will be there. This is worth watching, even if the upset is not so likely. Cerundolo in 4.

Giron vs Griekspoor :

I keep expecting Griekspoor to do well on clay, but it seems tough for him to pull away from most tour level opposition. This will be another difficult match as Giron is harmless but a good competitor. Giron’s speed will make him tough to hit through, and so Tallon needs to grind for errors. Giron’s backhand is always the target, and this match will be no different. He seems to fight it off at times, and even if he’s hitting it well he pretty much only goes crosscourt with it so Griekspoor should be safe. The job is simple, so the analysis is short. The only way Giron wins is if Griekspoor gets impatient, and Griekspoor will know he can’t win quickly since Giron is such a solid athlete. Griekspoor in 4-5.

Shevchenko vs Lajovic :

Shevchenko has received a lucky loser spot which makes this a tough matchup to call. He lost to Misolic, but has won a few matches lately and seems to be finding his range again. I’m not sure if he was struggling physically, but for a few months he seemed to be unable to keep the ball in the court unless he was hitting it fairly slowly. For a guy who got on tour by grinding away in long rallies and hitting every ball with as much juice as he could, it was a bit of a puzzle. He’ll have chances against Lajovic, as the aging champion has lost to Quinn/Pellegrino/Fearnley recently. 

Lajovic is capable of a really high level on clay, but he hasn’t displayed that level consistently and the clay season is basically over. He has okay wins (Norrie/Djere) but he has Challenger level losses. This is a toss-up basically and since they haven’t played previously, there’s no much data to go off. Thinking about the tennis, Shevchenko probably has more rally tolerance at this point, but no quick ways to score. Lajovic’s forehand is the biggest shot on the court, but if he’s having stamina issues at the end of a 2 month clay season, winning a 3/5 is not in the cards. Shevchenko in 5.

Quinn vs Dimitrov :

I don’t think Dimitrov is physically healthy for this, so it’s a good chance for Quinn. Dimitrov just turned in a lackluster performance against Passaro in Rome, and Quinn has won a bunch of 3 set matches recently which is key because to pull off an upset you will generally need to finish strong. Quinn’s game is pretty good and he has a very sharp forehand. The extra spin drags the ball wide nicely when he goes crosscourt, and his main trouble at this juncture is unforced errors. Dimitrov can be pretty passive at times, so Quinn will have a chance to work himself into this match. This is mostly based off Dimitrov’s health struggles, but I like Quinn here. Dimitrov also has some honor system about not withdrawing, so he seems likely to take the court and lose rather than withdraw. Quinn in 4.

Medvedev vs Norrie :

I spent this clay season watching to see if Daniil would revert back to hating clay, but he gave it a full effort in almost every match and it worked out. He’s not the most effective on the surface, but he can gatekeep very well. That’s the story of this match against Norrie. Norrie wants to wear down his opponent, but his version of pushing is actually less offensive than Medvedev’s. Daniil has more variety in his game and a much better serve, so he’s able to play a bit freer and the result is he enjoys the tennis.

Norrie just played 3 with Novak in Geneva, so he won’t crash out like he did earlier in the season, but the upset here is going to take a massive amount of work and will require Medvedev to get upset enough to donate sets. One thing about Medvedev’s tantrums is that he’s thrown so many of them that he has developed the ability to reset within the match. He also has recently celebrated wins in an almost child-like manner (leaping up and down and screaming), which is funny for fans but also indicates that he had forgotten or lost the ability/desire to really want to win at tennis. The crushing major final defeats and guys retiring who you never got to dismiss can weigh on you, so it might be that Daniil gets a second wind now that the spotlight has been off of him for a season or two. Medvedev in 4.

Kovacevic vs Ruusuvuori :

Ruusuvuori released some press about his mental health struggles, and it’s good he’s getting help. Not everyone needs help, and not every method is right for everyone, but it should all be available. Some people thrive without help, some people find peace in religion, or therapy, or relationships, exercise, career pursuits, even just in healing with the passing of time. To each their own, you know? While I’m happy he’s healing, he hasn’t won matches recently, so Kovacevic has a chance here. Alex has not really been impactful on tour in this clay swing, but he’s been active. The best of Ruusuvuori can win this, but it’ll be the first time we’ve seen it in a few seasons. Kovacevic in 3-4.

Fearnley vs Wawrinka :

Wawrinka’s lack of stamina has treated us to some of the best first round matches over the past few seasons, as his shotmaking becomes necessary and his unsung opposition become worthy villains. It’s tough to see great champions age, but if you’re a fan of tennis, his early rounds are still worth watching. Here, Fearnley should be able to win, but there is 0 chance that it will be easy. Fearnley wasn’t really expected to have such a big impact on clay, but thus far this season he has exceeded expectations. His forehand is excellent, his serving is effective, and he seems like the type of complete player who can remain on tour for the rest of his career. Early on, I expect Wawrinka’s power to create issues, but Fearnley’s accurate and consistent offense (he redirects down the line well with his backhand) will likely wear down his legs. Once the legs go, Wawrinka’s serve is not as dangerous, and I think Fearnly wins this in 4.

O’Connell vs Humbert :

Humbert is a tough player to predict right now. He fractured his 5th metacarpal on his right hand, but is still playing with a cast. The fact that he’s still playing is impressive, and the fact that he’s been somewhat competitive in his losses is also. O’Connell is not really a claycourt master, so this almost doable for Humbert in my mind. The mind is a terrible place to live though, as it possesses only the information I do, and I am a number one dumb guy. Some internet clicking shows me that O’Connell beat Humbert in 2 in Munich qualifying 2 years ago, and if he can beat healthy Humbert, the one that just withdrew against Moutet last match is in trouble. If he takes the court, I think fresh Humbert will do fine, but as the match wears on O’Connell should win in 4-5.

Shapovalov vs Martinez :

Shapo’s last two losses to Gaubus and De Minaur and his withdrawal down a set and a break to Dedura seem bad, but he has an opponent here that I think he can handle (and Gaubus is quietly excellent). Martinez plays optimal tennis with his skillset. He serves in an intelligent way, he uses dropshots and slices, and he comes up with great defensive gets. I don’t see a lot that he does though that will really make Shapovalov miss any more than he usually does, and that could be a problem. Shapovalov makes unforced errors because he tries to hit a shot on every shot. When he works a point patiently, he instantly wins, but this is not his mode. When he struggles with confidence, his serve gets less swingy and more rotatey (big science analysis here), and he loses pace and double faults. He has the strength and fitness to be a grinder, but he wants to be an exciting shotmaker. Tennis is a tricky balance of being stingy and aggressive, and on clay this is even more important. Martinez can expose Shapovalov’s impatience, but I also think that Shapovalov’s weight of shot and commitment to making his opponent constantly run will pay dividends against Martinez. Pedro is a great competitor, but he’s a bit past his prime and I don’t think a day of running wind sprints is where he’ll thrive. The 3/5 format should also provide Shapovalov time to implode and to reset, which is important. On a big 40/40 point he’s going to fumble, but if you give him 10 chances at it he’s going to win 6 points. Shapovalov in 4-5.

Misolic vs Bu :

Bu is having a roller coaster clay season. He wins two matches then loses two matches then pulls a big upset then crashes out as a favorite. His style of tennis is really entertaining but his serving is not strong enough to make him dominant against anyone. That makes this a tricky matchup for him. Misolic plays a powerful style of tennis and he was good in qualifying. He’s been around the tour for the last two seasons doing well on clay and getting close to the top 100, and a win or two here (totally possible with Shapo/Martinez next) would go a long way towards that goal. Misolic’s losses tend to come because he plays so straightforward. He hits huge, but at times a quick opponent can outlast him in rallies. If the ball keeps coming back, he can get impatient and seem like he’s trying to knock his opponent over. His backhand also is mostly a defensive tool. As a result, I think Bu will have good chances in stretches of this match. The good play from Misolic can take the racquet out of Bu’s hand, but he didn’t really play anyone great in qualifying (toughest match was likely Neumayer). Since Misolic didn’t drop a set in qualifying, he’s likely still fresh for this, so I think he wins in 4-5. Bu can make things tough, but I don’t think he can close out easily even if he gets the lead.

Moutet vs Tabur :

Moutet is really good, and has somewhat left his right wrist injury behind. He still uses the one-handed backhand a lot, but he’s adjusted his footwork well and he just turned in a good performance in Rome, besting Rune and almost snagging a fatigued Jack Draper. When I watch Tabur I’m impressed that he’s able to win so many matches without really hitting the ball with full exertion, but that lack of explosive hitting mean he probably can’t beat Moutet. He can get good height on the ball when he hits his forehand, but his backhand is not great with the ball up high, so Moutet’s forehand is likely to cause problems. With Tabur’s form and playing his compatriot, I doubt this is one-sided, but I think Corentin has more ways to score. Moutet in 4.

McDonald vs Djokovic :

Djokovic is in Geneva right now on his way to title #100 which is ridiculous. He has all the statistical categories locked up already and yet managed to be near enough to the next milestone to lock it up with a nice vacation to the Alps. We’ve seen this movie before. Djokovic goes to a 250 the week before a major (when he’s struggling), bags the title, and comes into the major at his best. This is important here because the main worry for Novak is fatigue/wear and tear in the early rounds. He has a tough draw in general with Moutet/Shapovalov/Medvedev/Zverev/Sinner, but he still can beat the first 4 guys in a single match on a given day. He looks good and focused in Geneva, and is travelling with a smaller team which is good because it means fewer distractions. I don’t think Djokovic is going to win another Roland Garros (this is the “these edibles ain’t sh%t” of tennis blunder comments), but I absolutely want to see him try. McDonald is a nice guy. My friend went to one of his matches a while back and his family let him sit in their box and take photos, so they’re nice too. Mackie isn’t a pushover, and Djokovic likes to dump early sets in majors, but I don’t think the upset is on the table here. Djokovic in 3.

Musetti vs Hanfmann :

There’s a lot of buzz around Musetti right now, and it makes sense. He’s improved his aggression, and doesn’t really have a hole in his game other than being more passive than the other title contenders. He’ll have good crowd support because of his shotmaking, and he has a good draw. Hanfmann is a scary first round for most since he serves huge and has great power, but the hole in his game has always been his slightly slow lateral movement, and Musetti’s ability to extend rallies and defend should shut down Yannick’s offense more and more as this goes on. Slight chance that Hanfmann can win a set as he does compete well against top tier opposition, but Musetti in 3-4, and the 3 is more likely because Lorenzo has really done a good job of making his own serve/offense more imposing and consistent.

Royer vs Carballes Baena :

This is a good one. RCB is not 100% and withdrew against Ofner, so Royer has a shot. Normally, RCB’s consistent pressure and defending would expose the French player’s lack of durability, but here it’s a spot where Royer’s offense should be able to score. There’s not a concrete way to say how RCB is physically for this match without his practice sessions being public, and I’m actually not in France right now so I’m going to expect Royer to win until I see the old RCB appear. Royer in 3-4.

Opelka vs Hijikata :

Opelka beat Hijikata 7-5, 7-5 in Madrid, but this is not Madrid. What happened in Monte Carlo happened and what happened in Madrid happened, and we are in Rome(an Garros). The conditions in Madrid are good for servers because of the altitude, and Roland Garros is much slower. Hijikata has also gotten his game together a big since then and won a few matches in Bordeaux. One of those wins was Baez, but that data point doesn’t really matter much here because this won’t be a match of baseline rallies. If Hijikata can get serve returns in, he wins. If not, he still might win but it’ll have to be in tiebreakers. I think the result gets reversed here. Hijikata in 4-5.

Navone vs Nakashima :

Early in the clay swing I thought Nakashima was playing well and then I thought he was playing terrible and now I think he’s good again. Navone is the popular pick here as he’s put on some heroic clay performances but this is likely to be close. Nakashima beat him in 3 last year on clay, and Navone just lost to Nardi and Coric recently. It seems that he plays to the level of his opponent, but I think it’s also that he doesn’t really have an offensive game. Navone has a great backhand and a complete game, but there’s nowhere that he’s going to hurt you if you keep the ball in play. Earning all your points is tough, and Nakashima is pretty steady from the baseline when he doesn’t have to sprint. His speed is really the only thing holding him back, as his serve hold #s are oddly close to the servebots on tour. Nakashima’s serve netting him free points should keep this close. I think Navone has better stamina but this is one I expect the public to be a bit overconfident on. Navone in 5.

Machac vs Halys :

Machac can beat anyone, withdraw to anyone, and lose to anyone. His results are all over the place lately, and it reminds me a little of Lehecka. His offense should expose Halys’ movement, but the big man has been playing solid tennis lately so the scorelines could include some overtime sets. Machac also retired from his last match, so this is another one where the expectations are not worth much money. Machac in 4, or a Halys walkover.

Kecmanovic vs Baez :

I want to give you 3 paragraphs about who’s going to win but the truth is I’m not sure either are going to play well. Kecmanovic can be one of the best baseliners in tour at times, but every single one of his matches is close and he’s lost his last 3 matches. Baez is supposed to be the captain of the 2nd tier of claycourt masters, but he’s been more error prone this year and might be a little burnt out. It’s a good spot for both of them as a result. If Baez can turn into his robotic self, he should win, but the physical workload that requires against Kecmanovic is tough to conjure, and Miomir won their two previous meetings (though they were on hard and grass) so it makes sense for him to feel confident. Kecmanovic’s game is generally bigger but he’s not as solid, and Baez is going to have a hard time earning free points here and has lost his last 5 matches in the deciding set. That has to weigh on a player. Someone in 5.

Nava vs Van De Zandschulp :

Another puzzle of a spot. Botic retired from his last match, but before that he played 3 with JM Cerundolo and beat RBA. He’s not helpless here and his game is a little bigger offensively than Nava, but he’s probably not 100% here and he’s not brimming with confidence. Nava is a slight different story. He’s playing some of his best tennis recently, but it’s all at the Challenger level and he’s been losing to guys who aren’t tour level. Nava’s game is all about effort and footwork. While he does take a big rip at the ball on his forehand, he tends to wear opponents down more than blast them off the court. As a result, I think he’s likely to beat an injured Botic. If his offense were crisper, he might get stuck in a shootout, but it’ll be a longish day on the court and Botic is a flight risk. No real point in being sure of anything here with a player’s health in question, but Nava in 5.

Bautista Agut vs Rune :

RBA has found good form again, and he’s hitting his forehand a little different which is interesting. Rune is just good enough to make upsets seem unlikely, and just dense enough to fall victim to them. These guys have have a lifetime of training and nothing but time to figure out the game, but it seems like on tour they have to do it all over. Rune is trying to find the right balance of aggression, and to figure out how to defeat different opponents. He doesn’t have a defined game, so at times he falls into playing someone else’s version of the game. There are other times (like against Tsitsipas) where you can see that he’s worked the formula out already, and he thrives. In that matchup, he serves like 90% to the backhand, and just locks in on backhand exchanges during the rally. Honestly, that should be his default. It will work here, if only because RBA’s backhand is the way less dangerous wing. Rune should be the fitter player in a long match, and he’s in good form recently so I think he gets this in 4.

Tiafoe vs Safiullin :

I don’t understand how Tiafoe is still 17th in the world. Every week there is a spot where it’s clear that he might be about to lose to an underdog, and it happens anyway. It’s a testament to his ability that he’s still favored in all these matches, but I think these side-quest weeks at 250s are major opportunities for him to work on new stuff and get his ability to grind back, and they’re slipping away. Here he’s playing a guy he can likely beat in straight if he goes all out, but it’ll likely be close. Safiullin is on a losing streak coming into this, but their previous match went the distance. I like Tiafoe, but he’s in that deer in the headlights mode right now and needs to snap out of it. Tiafoe in 3-4, or another puzzling loss where he seems like he just hasn’t been playing a lot of tennis.

Carreño Busta vs Comesana :

PCB has arrived back on tour but is being held at customs. He has won sets against a lot of players in his return but has barely won matches. It makes the prospect of him winning a long match in the 3/5 format seem unlikely. Comesana has proven to be a big match player, and his skill and endurance should make things tough for PCB. The recent loss to Burruchaga and Carabelli are right around Comesana’s level, and the “when, not if” aspect of my belief in Pablo’s return to winning ways is starting to dwindle. Comesana in 4, I don’t see how PCB will hurt him.

Brooksby vs Faria :

This should be fun. Brooksby is not really a celebrated claycourt player but he’s proven that he can outlast opponents in the typical Brooksby way. Faria retired from his last match but he’s originally a claycourter and his results on tour have been pretty promising. He has a good chunk of power, and I expect him to win the early exchanges if he’s not making errors. The errors and frustration may add up though, and he withdrew from his last match against Taberner so he might not be 100%. Brooksby in 4-5.

Darderi vs Korda :

Luciano Darderi has gotten better in every single match he’s playing the past two months. He managed to turn his form around, and just played a three-setter with Rublev who is likely to win that Hamburg event. That makes this a winnable match against Korda, who has just gotten outdueled by Munar. Korda is great, but he’s also chillin. He’ll play tennis, but he’s chillin. If you want to put in a great deal of extra effort, it’s juuuust enough to get through. Darderi is a perfect candidate for this. Korda’s serve and offense are beautiful, but this will be a long match and I think Darderi is more durable and more motivated. I’d put it this way, if you picture these two competing in anything for a long period, which one do you expect to give up first? Darderi in 5.

Michelsen vs J.M. Cerundolo :

Cerundolo qualifying is well-deserved, as he’s been one of the better clay specialists who hasn’t really wound up all the way on tour. Michelsen is supposed to be a winnable match, but no one seems to have told Michelsen that. He can be error prone, and his movement is a big awkward on clay, but he still does a good job. Wins against Nardi/Pellegrino/and a set win against Borges are right around the level needed to beat Cerundolo. Juan has great patience and defending, and being lefty is a good thing, but he doesn’t hit big enough to take Michelsen out of this. Michelsen errors vs winners is the equation here. If they’re equal, he’ll win. Michelsen in 5.

Majchrzak vs Medjedovic :

Whoever wins this match has the potential to go a long way, but I think Medjedovic’s game is more suited to the deep run. Hamad has lost a few matches in a row, and Majchrzak has cooled off after an incredible run of going 7-1 in April. Medjedovic has great power and shotmaking, but needs to play at a certain pace in order to make that happen. Clay generally allows that, but Kamil has been taking the ball early and moving the ball well. This is a match where it’ll be tough for either to impose themselves, but they both possess the right game to down the other. Popcorn time, but it’s hard to say who’ll win. Medjedovic can probably make the second week if he wins this, so I’m pulling for him. Medjedovic in 4-5.

Kopriva vs Monteiro :

Monteiro has fallen off a bit this season, and Kopriva has been playing his best and winning a lot of matches at the Challenger level. He also managed to beat Baez, Sonego, and Darderi, which prove he can remain on tour. This is a good draw for him, as Thiago has looked slightly less than superhuman recently and Kopriva should be the more durable athlete. Kopriva in 4.

Altmaier vs Fritz :

This won’t be easy for Fritz. Despite upping his patience and composure, Fritz’s style is still not great for clay. His backhand tends to be more about blocking and reflecting pace, and his serve is a bit subdued on slow clay. Altmaier is on a bit of a losing streak, but he’s a shotmaker and tends to play to the level of his opposition. The 3/5 format gives him more time to work himself into a match, and Fritz just lost to Giron which is basically the same caliber of player. It’s not surprising to anyone to see me doubting Fritz, but I’m not imagining this one. Fritz should win, but I don’t think he will. Altmaier has been way more active, and Taylor needs to play his best tennis from 0-0 or this will get very tricky. Altmaier in 5.

Ruud vs Ramos-Vinolas :

Tough draw for ARV. He played really well in qualifying, but Casper is back to his old self, and is likely to wear down ARV’s backhand. Ramos-Vinolas has turned in some amazing performances against top tier players because he’s such a good ballstriker, but I think it will take too much work for him to beat Ruud. Ruud in 3 (but I’d be scared to rule out ARV taking a set as good as he’s playing and as rough as Ruud’s backhand can be in a first round).

Jacquet vs Borges :

Kyrian Jacquet is good enough to beat Borges in a single set. I could maybe see him competing even in a three-setter also. I’m not sure in the 3/5 format that he can outlast Nuno though. It’s not a stamina or a skill issue; Borges is just the guy on tour who whacks away and competes constantly. He’s used to having to go uphill, and he’s been struggling for wins this past month or so which has him oddly primed to play his hardest here with no expectations. I would expect Jacquet’s quality to land him on tour someday and for him to be very competitive here, but Borges in 5ish is what I expect.

Tabilo vs Cazaux :

Both of these players have incredibly entertaining offenses, and both disappear for long stretches of time. Cazaux’s absences are usually injuries, and Tabilo’s are usually errors. Tabilo hasn’t participated in tennis since Monte Carlo, which is a bad sign since he had some wrist swelling there. Cazaux just came back and lost to Hurkacz, which is not the worst, but he’s not sharp. Wrist injuries are tough, and if Cazaux can dig in here and avoid errors I think he can grind out a win. Tabilo is the better player but he hasn’t played and wrist injuries tend to pop up again if you come back too soon. Cazaux via withdrawal.

Nishioka vs Popyrin :

Props to Nishioka for competing on clay even though he’s not great at it. Popyrin’s unforced errors will keep him in the match, but he really can’t win. Popyrin in 3-4.

Khachanov vs Vukic :

Vukic has already performed way better than expected this clay season, so I won’t write him off completely. That being said, Khachanov is playing well and has mostly shrugged off the early season struggles with consistency. He just lost to Ofner, but I think you’ll find a lot of guys will lose to this version of Ofner. When he’s on, he’s a big problem. Khachanov’s ballstrking is more suited to clay, and he serves about as well as Vukic. Karen’s backhand is way stronger, and this feels a bit like Griekspoor vs Giron, where one guy just wins by having a more complete game. Khachanov in 3-4.

Ofner vs Struff :

Ofner is in the semifinals of Geneva right now, and he’s playing great ball. Ofner has immense pace on the ball, and goes huge on his forehand. Sebastian serves well, and prior to some injury issues he’d become a tour regular. It looks like he’ll become one again, as he’s up to 108 in the live rankings and will get to play RG and Wimbledon. Struff is a threat to anyone in the middle of the tour, but he has struggled to win a single match. It hurts me to say he’s not the greatest tactician, but it’s unforced errors and a sense of urgency that doesn’t feel totally warranted that cost him sets. I don’t think Struff is that rough of an athlete to have to force offense immediately on his backhand, but he knows better than me I’m sure. Tennis choices look simple when you watch, but on the court it takes a lot of effort, focus, and reaction. Ofner in 3 here, he’s just really playing great and even if Struff wakes up it makes him a game worse per set at best.

Fucsovics vs Schoolkate :

Great draw for Marton, who’s been mired off tour but found his best tennis recently. He’s a former junior #1, and he really has some mercurial skill when he gets to show it. It’s odd to see a physical specimen with a good forehand struggle to win, but his backhand being mainly a slice and his preferred deep court position make it tough for him to distance himself from other guys on tour. Schoolkate is not a good claycourter, and his inexperience is likely to cost him here. Fucsovics in 3-4.

Moller vs Paul :

A lucky loser spot is great for Moller, but this is a bad draw obviously. Moller thrives when he’s the bigger hitter, but in qualifying he was struggling to land first serves late in the match against Gigante. I think he’ll wind up on tour by next season because he’s really a good player, but right now there’s a ceiling to his physicality that will be exposed here. Paul in 3-4.

Shelton vs Sonego :

I know which player prefers clay, but Sonego’s results haven’t been there, and Shelton’s have. Shelton just seems able to play tennis well enough to overcome the slower conditions, and since he plays harder in big tournaments he’s likely to give a good effort here. Sonego actually beat him here in 2023, but Ben has ironed out some of his error issues since then, and his backhand has steadily improved. They both just lost to grinders last week, Shelton dropping a somewhat predictable spot against Munar and Sonego losing to Burruchaga. They both have pretty huge offenses, but I think Shelton has the slightly better defense so he may be able to reverse the result here. I really would not write Sonego off here. The format allows his errors to matter a bit less and his commitment to offensive pressure can pay dividends when he’s allowed to drop an early set and not get punished for it. Shelton in 5.

Gaston vs Blanchet :

Gaston hasn’t really been the hero lately, but the French Open is always a place he thrives. Blanchet and him haven’t played yet, but it’s likely to be close. Gaston just lost to Atmane, and Arnaldi, and Jarry, and Gojo, and Ofner, and Norrie, and Carabelli, and I think you’re getting the picture. He’s not finding ways to win matches,and Ugo Blanchet has just done exactly that in a qualifier draw where he was an underdog in most rounds. The wins against Rodesch and Garin were most telling, those are two players who are really playing at tour level most of the time lately. I like Blanchet here. He’s bringing in a good level and he’ll be familiar with Gaston’s approach. Anything is possible with Gaston, but Blanchet in 4.

Hassan vs Gigante :

Hassan won their previous meeting in 2023 in a lopsided 3 setter (the last two sets were 1-6, 6-1). I think we’ll see something similar here. Both are playing well, and Gigante is prone to making errors for a few games at a time. Hassan is actually the steadier player, and where Moller ran out of strength I think Hassan will stay steady. It’s a close one, but I like Hassan in 5.

Etcheverry vs Tsitsipas :

This went from being an easy match to being a rough one in the space of a week. Etcheverry had looked lost out there for months, and finally he started to win in Hamburg this week, defeating Lehecka and Comesana. These are much-needed wins. He lost to Cobolli in three, so I don’t think he’s pulling the upset against Tsitsipas, but it will be more competitive than it would have been a month ago. Tsitsipas rolled him in Monte Carlo in their previous meeting, and he’ll be looking to start off well here after a two month period in which he learned that his best is now in the second tier of claycourt tennis. Stefanos has been trending in a decent direction even if his results haven’t been great, so he should do well here. Etcheverry is the perfect opponent to make him lock in early, and I think even if he drops a set due to frustration or late set shanks (his main issue) he’ll get this done. Tsitsipas in 3-4.

Perricard vs Bergs :

I’ll admit I drafted Perricard early in my fantasy team. I never thought it would be my fantasy to own a team of tennis players, but that’s my life now. I thought he’d lock into a level of serving that would make him the new Isner, but he’s locked into an interesting role of a player who is lights out amazing tennis a few weeks a year, and Otto Virtanen on a tough day the rest of the time (sorry Otto we love you). Bergs has been losing, but Perricard hasn’t been able to avoid baseline rallies and won’t be able to win them against Bergs. I’m going against the offensive player a lot in this draw, but I think Bergs has proven that when he knows he can outlast someone he plays his best. Bergs in 5.

Tirante vs Dzumhur :

Dzumhur must be eating a healthy breakfast or something this season. He completely got back in the top 100 with just Challengers, and then started winning matches on clay at a great clip. His level has cooled off a bit, but it’s enough to buy him a chance for main entry into all the majors for the rest of the season. This is a winnable match for him, but Tirante beat him in their previous match. Dzumhur’s speed and ability to move the ball on clay are what made him successful, but Tirante is used to that. A bunch of the players Damir beat were also somewhat struggling for form. This should be really close, but I think Tirante gets a little boost from getting a few matches in in the qualifiers, and lucky losers tend to play freely in the first round. Tirante in 5.

Maroszan vs Nardi :

Nardi matches are difficult to call, and there’s a chance he wins this. He’s developed a good composure on the court, and just keeps hitting even though he’s not the strongest player. Maroszan may feel he has to or should supply a lot of the offense here, and that can be tough to do over a long match. On paper, Maroszan is the better player. He has a better serve, more power, and better wins. At the same time, he has some rough losses and Nardi is solid right now. I tried to sell it, but Maroszan is 2-0 against him. Maroszan in 4.

Zeppieri vs Alcaraz :

Alcaraz won the first of many Sinner Alcaraz matchups in Rome, and he did it in spectacular fashion. Down 15-40 5-6, it seemed like Carlos’ errors would cost him the set against Sinner. My idea about how Sinner wins this matchup always circles around his game being less error prone. The Alcaraz highs are high, but the lows are lows. Once Alcaraz held though, the match was basically over. It gives a guy who already competes well even more confidence heading into this tournament, where he’s the defending champion. Zeppieri is a lefty with a crispy offense who hits the ball a million miles per hour so this match is worth watching. He’ll win a few perfect games, and lose the match. Alcaraz in 3-4. I don’t add the 4 because I think Zeppieri should win a set, but because Alcaraz’s approach to the game in the past year has been to go for his shots. If he’s missing, or gets broken, it doesn’t deter him. He’s had matches where he lost the whole thing because he kept firing. I think that’s okay, but it means that he’s not the Nadal type where he’s digging in to win every point. He has that ability, but he’s aiming to be something different.