2025 Roland Garros Men's Final

Lock in for the first of many Grand Slam finals between these two. This one will make history, as it will be someone’s first loss in a major final. Sinner is 3-0 (2024/25 Australian Opens, and 2024 US Open) and Alcaraz is 4-0 (2022 US Open, 2024 Roland Garros, 2022/23 Wimbledon). There have been a lot of lopsided RG finals in recent history and some foregone conclusions, but this one is extremely close. I feel this will be the best match we see this season. Both players are playing excellent, there’s enough recent history for both to really want to win, and both are pretty healthy and have dismissed all the second tier competition in their own respective ways.

Sinner is into the finals after a straight set victory vs Novak Djokovic that despite the scoreline is likely the highest quality match of the tournament. It was clear early on that Sinner would not deviate from his plan, which is to counterpunch, give his opponents very little to work with, and push the pace and move his opponent. It sounds like an ideal but simple plan, but his ability to actually execute it is world class. His footwork is proactive and constant, and to out-rally Djokovic even at the tail end of his career is incredible.

Novak has taken some disheartening losses this season, but after watching the semifinals it’s pretty clear those were due to injuries and disinterest more than the quality of his tennis declining. He might be a half step slower, he might not be totally committed to playing 5 hours of tennis, but I don’t think anyone other than Sinner and Alcaraz can defeat him when he plays like that. Djokovic had opportunities in sets 2 and 3 to extend the match, but Sinner played some solid points. There’s one forehand in the third Djokovic will want back; his box had just directed him to play aggressively on his second set point, and he ripped a forehand down the line that drifted wide. It was a very aggressive choice, and that is often the way in tennis. If you go too aggressive on the first, it’s too passive on the second, and vice versae. The way that Djokovic left it all out there is admirable, and the level he displayed makes me think he’s still a threat on the quicker surfaces for at least another year.

For now, my takeaway is that Sinner played a perfect match. He had some glorious performances in Rome and early in this draw, but it’s the first time I’ve seen him have to play solid tennis for a few hours. That’s a key piece of data because it’s the only way he can win against Alcaraz. Carlos is through after a pretty comfortable run through this draw. With Sinner/Djokovic/Zverev/Cerundolo in the top of the draw and Rune losing to Musetti, Alcaraz avoided most of the names who have given him some trouble in the past. Tommy Paul has two hardcourt wins against him, but that doesn’t really factor here, and Tommy was less than 100% for their clash. At his current level, I think only Sinner really has a shot in 3/5, but it’s still nice to get to the finals completely fresh.

To his credit, Musetti played well in the first half of their match. He served well, and he was a bit more aggressive than usual with his forehand. In particular, I thought his forehand inside in was hit really well. After splitting sets, Musetti hit a wall. He didn’t win a game in the third, and had to retire with a left thigh injury. Hopefully he’s able to heal in time for Wimbledon, but it was a great clay season for him and he’s made great progress on faster surfaces so there aren’t really alarm bells if he has to take some time off.

Sinner and Alcaraz’s recent history has mostly gone Alcaraz’s way. It’s been four wins in a row for Carlos, and he won their most recent meeting in the Rome finals. That was an interesting match and doesn’t really shed perfectly reliable light on this matchup for a few reasons. One, Sinner basically stayed steady and had the first set all but locked up, including several set points. Two, it was Sinner’s first tournament back from his layoff and there were a number of strange results. He managed to almost blank Casper Ruud, but then got left on 1 in the first set by Tommy Paul in a stretch of play where he could not find the court at all with his forehand. He had some issues with depth against Cerundolo, but then found his best tennis a round later. In short, his timing was off, something we haven’t seen here in Paris. Despite having 3 months to work on fitness and plan his return, it seemed like he was feeling things out in Rome, like a baby bird stretching its wings. Sinner had a moderately rough blister that week also, and I wonder if that didn’t make the prospect of playing 3 long sets in the finals something his team had advised against. I’m aware it’s speculative that his team might be okay losing or impose limits, but Sinner’s movement that week was visibly labored at times in the second half of the draw, and his team is hunting majors at this point. M1000 titles are amazing, but they don’t really alter his career trajectory or his legacy. Alcaraz won the tournament and he’s been dominating this matchup (in close matches), but my point is I don’t expect the same one-sided scoreline.

As much as the Rome final had some questions surrounding it, those questions only cast slight doubt on Alcaraz. He’s been winning the matchup, he has only one loss on clay this season ((Rune in Barcelona where he was running on empty) and he’s improved aspects of his game this season. His serve percentage is higher than it was last year (when he beat Sinner here in a 5-set thriller), and he’s improved his backhand a bit in order to be able to go big without as many errors. Errors are a key here though. Sinner has improved a lot since last year. He has a robotic manner of tennis because of how consistent he has become. He doesn’t give you a lot, so the rally ball errors that Alcaraz made at times against Musetti can be costly. We’ve seen the all-out attack mode from Sinner, but that seems to be his new strategy for getting the simpler matches done quickly. Alcaraz’s speed and movement on clay are the best on tour, so just hitting through him is unlikely. I think Sinner will try to maintain his level and look for the dips and overly-aggressive choices from Alcaraz to be the way he wins. That spells a long day of defending, and Sinner’s stamina might be second best here.

This is just very close. Alcaraz has more ability to infuse big power, and I think his aggression is more likely to yield an immediate point than Jannik’s. Alcaraz moves better than Sinner, and his defense is similarly stifling at times. I’d give a slight edge in serving to Sinner, as he’s been able to hit the wide serve from the ad side really well, and he always has the slider from the duece-court as a first or second serve option. I wonder if the Djokovic match will be a plus due to getting high-level hitting practice in, or a detriment due to the wear and tear. It’s tricky to gauge Sinner’s stamina and health levels because he has an interesting gait. He’s a bit like Monfils where he steps gingerly and at times looks to be limping, but similar to Monfils he’s able to play 4-5 hours of tennis anyway. That’s what I think this match will require. Alcaraz has shown an ability to lock in for finals, but I don’t think he has shown the level of consistent offensive production that it would take to just dismiss Sinner. At times Carlos tends to play hyper-aggressive and only reverts back to lockdown defensive grinding and dropshots when the scoreline finally gets close.

This is a match of ifs. If Alcaraz starts off as he did against Musetti, he’ll need to mount a comeback again. The Rome dropoff from Sinner could easily have been from the workload that playing Alcaraz requires. In neutral rallies Sinner has a slight advantage because he’s more consistent and his groundstrokes are easier to produce, but if Alcaraz has a slight bit of time he’s able to infuse pace on his forehand that can really keep him in control. Not to make the obvious comparison, but Nadal’s forehand was similar. Early on you can hang and sprint and drive returns, but as the match goes on they get to swing more and more free as you get slightly less accurate and slightly slower. It gets harder to defend, and the player taking slightly bigger swings is going to get more bad bounces, and be more fluid in their offensive attempts on big points. If that’s the case, and Sinner was not hampered greatly by his blister in Rome, then he likely loses this in 5.

This is a war of attrition and to me it’ll be decided by Alcaraz’s unforced error count and Sinner’s legs. Making a prediction is not easy, but as fans, we get rewarded here because of the situation. Sinner’s level of play and consistent power is so high right now that for Alcaraz to win, he’ll have to produce something actually spectacular, and he’s actually capable of that. This is the beginning of a long run of these two meeting in the finals of majors, and at the end of writing this I’m still not really sure who I like. Last year I thought Sinner was overlooked and the 5 set result showed that, and he has made enormous strides since then in his fitness and mental game. Clay is often about stingy play and raw power, and these two are the best at those two things. I can paint Sinner as more solid and composed and I believe that, but it isn’t like Alcaraz isn’t consistent, and he has shown the ability to elevate in finals. They both have. Hmm. Jannik has demonstrated a higher level this week than Carlos, and the Djokovic match was significantly better than anything we saw in Rome. If the wind is anything similar to today’s WTA finals, Sinner’s compact strokes are easier to adjust than Alcaraz’s huge forehand production. Sinner in 5.