2025 Australian Open Women's Semifinals

Keys vs Swiatek :

This is a very deserved semifinal for both of these players. Madison Keys has just downed two former major champions and one of the best players to never win one (Svitolina). For me, it’s not just the wins she got, but the path she took. When Keys loses range on her shots, it’s really hard to believe it’s going to return, but she has just completed two very good 3 set performances. Svitolina’s defense and underrated serving got her quickly ahead in the first set, but it was a long match and you can’t outrun the ball. Defense can cause unforced errors, but when they don’t come, Keys is the slightly better player. She painted lines in the third set and was able to execute serve +1 combos for almost the entire second half of this match. I think she’s just about even in this matchup, and were it not for Swiatek’s resurgence on hardcourt I would like her outright.

Iga Swiatek made a few of her traditional hardcourt mistakes, but she was dominant against Navarro. She hit her backhand with great depth, and applied pressure in almost every Navarro service game. The forehand battle had gone in Navarro’s favor against Kasatkina, and that let her get into better position to go down the line. Against Swiatek, this advantage was flipped. Neutral rallies were advantageous for her when trading crosscourt, and her speed around the court neutralized Navarro’s dropshots fairly well. Navarro’s backhand can be really well-struck, but today there just weren’t a lot of places to score on Swiatek. Iga’s hardcourt errors really seem to come from trying to take full swings on shots that are better guided in. She hits a very spinny backhand cross for short angles on clay, but on hardcourt it seems like the extra speed on the ball makes her contact point unreliable at times in this shot. This is just a minor critique, as this is only responsible for a few points a game, but the hardcourt specialists almost all drive their two-hander in these spots so it represents a leak over time.

Keys has an edge in serving, and her power is absurdly useful. Rushing Swiatek has been the number one way to beat her on hardcourt, and Keys is the right candidate to do that. She was able to wear down Svitolina’s defense and really fluster her, and there is similar opportunity available against Swiatek. Some things shift here though. Swiatek spreads her backhand really well around the court, and it’s not the easiest to read. Keys takes big strides but her first step is not always the quickest and her squash gets/slices are less than perfect. Swiatek doesn’t T-serve as well as Svitolina, but she gets a lot more action on it, and that may give Keys a bit more trouble as an aggressive returner. It’s good to take serves on the rise if you can but a good kick serve can earn errors as fatigue and pressure set in. Swiatek seems like almost as tough of a defensive test as Swiatek, but she’s way more dangerous when she has control of the rallies.

This is a great match because of the difficulties these two have faced and how well they’ve maintained a level this tournament. The possibility of them reverting back to some of their rougher forms has been discussed all week, but they’ve delivered in every single round. Since they’re both around their peak, I’m going to skip the past matches. There hasn’t been a hardcourt meeting in 3 years, and this is a different Swiatek. I do expect Swiatek to be the fresher athlete her having gone through a much lighter draw, and also for her combo of defense and offense to be something that ultimately takes advantage of the slight lapses in shotmaking that come from Keys playing such a high-risk game from the baseline. Swiatek in 3. Keys can be unplayable so I don’t think she’ll get blown out, but Swiatek is the most complete player she’s faced so far in terms of offense/defense/athleticism/form so it feels like she’ll get outlasted.

Sabalenka vs Badosa :

The 2/3 format of the women’s slams makes for some incredible semifinals every year. Players find their best tennis, draws work out, and heroic performances land some very deserving players in some big spots. Paola Badosa has dealt with injury issues for a long time now. She’s had issues with her forehand, and troubles with consistency, and finally she’s gotten clear of them for a sustained period. This past week Badosa has been at her best. She was an incredible player when she first got on tour, but there is an increased sense of calm about her now in these big spots. Paola wasn’t given much of a chance against Gauff, but it was a lopsided match in her favor. Gauff started off with forehand errors, and then threw in some forehand errors. When that didn’t work, she tried forehand errors, but that didn’t seem to work either.

It was just one of those days for Gauff, but I think we’ve all been there. A few misses turns into a lack of confidence, and then the bigger the moment, or the larger the scoreboard deficit, etc the more we decelerate or swing too hard and miss again. Then we play safe, which immediately results in some of the most infuriating “first one in the net” “second one long” error combinations. The good news about a technique breakdown is you get immediate training. Her opponents will be looking to target her forehand even more than before now, and that’s great because Gauff is a quick study. Part of the reason I think Gauff’s forehand can break down is because it doesn’t really seem like the natural way she’d swing. Her backhand looks fluid, like she would have swung that way even if coaches didn’t exist. The forehand looks manufactured at times, and that can sometimes lead to issues (Konta is a good example of this). It’s possible that her agility and strength would let her do a lot more with her forehand even if she chose to take a more spin-heavy approach. Gasquet’s forehand didn’t really land clean winners, but he was able to work at the highest levels of the game with it. It would also help her manage the big takeback she goes with. The big extended takeback tends to result in length issues at times, as Madison Keys sometimes experienced earlier in her career. More timing issues can go wrong with a long swingpath, and it’s difficult to adjust to different bounces and fast shots.

I’m not the best technical analyst,so I’ll just quickly say what I think. A shorter takeback and a more brushy approach would probably work for Gauff. Gauff’s footspeed and power and the fact that she can beat most players even if she used her backhand for 2/3 of the court means that the only way past her (if she irons out the unforced errors) is to play offense. If you’re trying to keep your opponent from taking big swings at the ball, maximum topspin is one of the best things you can do. I think some of the professional forehand glitches and unique techniques stem from how early these players are playing in a competitive environment. They’re trying to hit the ball as hard as they can when they’re like 7, and the apparatus and the game are a real heavy workload so the technique changes during matchplay (because you’re overexerting so often). In a tournament, full commitment to technique goes out the window at times and you just smother the ball to where it might score. With positive results comes more competition, and ironing out habits can sometimes be really difficult to do. For most players, I might not believe in a huge change, but I think Gauff is capable of it if she decides she wants to. I also think she’s shown constant progress on her serve/forehand issues, so even if there are some rough performances along the way she’s likely to iron things out eventually.

For now, it’s Badosa vs Sabalenka. Aryna is through after a scary match with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Pavs put on a masterclass in staying composed in this one, running away with the second set in surprising fashion after being outhit in the first. It really is hard to see a player getting by Sabalenka without a tremendous offensive performance, but a few players have already profited from gaps in Sabalenka’s best tennis. I talked (too much maybe) about Gauff’s forehand, but a lot of credit can be given to Badosa for applying pressure to it. Badosa is hitting the ball well, and defended well in the quarterfinals. Scoreboard pressure also played a part, but Paola has been taking care of her serve well which is really important to have a shot against Sabalenka.

The problem with hoping for an upset is the h2h. Sabalenka has won the last 6 matchups, and Badosa’s only victories against her were in 2021. Sabalenka is likely to lose a stretch of games here, and this is her toughest challenge yet, but the lack of offense from Badosa might be an issue here. She takes a few shots to work a point, which is great against most players but risky against Sabalenka. Aryna can get out of trouble with one big swing, so you’re almost better off going bigger and to smaller targets against her. Even if you miss, it avoids her getting in a rhythm, and that might be another issue. Badosa is a wall, but she tends to hit in a singular pace and big hitters like Sabalenka really thrive on that at times. This should be closer than their World Tennis league meeting (6-2 for Sabalenka) but I think it’ll be difficult for Badosa to hang onto her serve here. Sabalenka in 2.