2025 Australian Open Women's Round One Saturday Matches

Sabalenka vs Stephens :

Aryna Sabalenka was up against an extremely difficult challenge in the finals in Brisbane and she still won. Polina Kudermetova was serving well, and hitting every shot with full conviction. She rattled off three games from a break down to win the first set, but somehow it still didn’t shift the momentum. Sabalenka hits the ball too hard. If she gets frustrated or starts missing because of wind issues she can donate sets, but winning the entire match against her takes something special. You have to be able to reflect power incredibly well, defend admirably, or somehow rush or move her. It’s basic tennis strategy to do those things, but it just felt like if Sabalenka kept hitting the court, her weight of shot would get her the title.

Sabalenka is set up here to make another solid run at the AO title. The court conditions are good for her, she’s comfortable, and she’s coming in on a hot streak. Sloane is a good shout to put up a competitive fight because she hits bigger than most of the WTA, but the days of her being a threat for titles and big upsets are mostly over. Sabalenka in 2.

Kartal vs Bouzas Maneiro :

This is a very interesting one. Bouzas Maneiro has turned in some really high level upsets, but a lot of middling losses. She defeated Sakkari and Krejcikova and several other good names last season, but she also lost to players right around Kartal’s level. Kartal was mostly competing at the smaller events, but she had a tremendous season, including winning her first WTA Title in Monastir and 3 ITF level events. This should be a good battle. Kartal has a massive forehand and a decent serve, but Bouzas is a great defender and has good variety when she gets inside the baseline. Bouzas having played a few more warmup matches may give her a good shot here, but I tend to think of her as thriving when her opponent is making errors and I’m not sure why I’d be assuming Kartal will do that. It’s pretty obvious Kartal works really hard on her fitness, so I’d guess this offseason has been productive. Kartal in 3.

Pera vs Maria :

Pretty cool matchup here. Pera has an excellent forehand with time, and Maria gives you something that sort of resembles time. Tatjana Maria slices almost 90% of her shots, and it is a challenge that many players on tour have folded against. Pera has the weight of shot, and as a lefty you somehow are more used to dealing with the backhand slices, so I think she can get through. At the same time, Pera’s losses are very regularly because of unforced errors, so this could easily go the distance. Pera in 2-3.

Tauson vs Noskova :

I guess we like Tauson here? When the prediction is tough, we’re a team btw. I really loved the level Noskova showed against Todoni a week or so ago, but then she had a rough go of it against Andreeva. She has the offensive power and flat hitting to really thrive on these courts, but struggling for consistency is a scary thing. Tauson just won the title in Auckland, and her run to get there included wins against Keys, Kenin, and an in-form Montgomery. The forfeit in the finals against Osaka wasn’t ideal, but Tauson is playing better than Noskova heading into this battle. I don’t honestly see how either player can defend against the other. They both hit a bit huge and their only real weakness is their lateral speed, so this doesn’t have to go to the way their early seasons have been progressing. I like Tauson because I think she’s more likely to lock into a level and remain there as she did in Auckland. Noskova has the game to beat anyone and she might even normally be favored here, but the loss to Andreeva and Sakkari will have her slightly less than 100% about her decision-making, and points in this match will likely go quick. Tauson in 2-3.

Frech vs Kudermetova P. :

The P. is for Put some respect on her name. Polina Kudermetova was grinding away in ITF and Challenger events for a few seasons now, and at the age of 21 she’s made her first final on tour. When she wins, it’s all about remaining steady. She can rally for days when she’s focused, and her serve has improved a bit during the offseason. The main difference in Brisbane is that she hit the ball really hard and was full commitment whenever she had the chance on offense. Defeating Samsonova, Kasatkina, and Wang Xinyu in one event is excellent, and she also took a set off Sabalenka and this is all after coming through qualifying.

Polina also qualified here at the AO, and the stretch of excellent play is starting to look LIKE IT WILL NEVER END, he said, jinxing her. Frech probably isn’t the household name she once was, but she has defeated Polina in both previous meetings. Those were a while back, but these two have similar styles and Frech’s ability to redirect power and make the extra get are valuable against Kudermetova. I’d expect a lot of people to pile in supporting Kudermetova’s side, and for them to have to endure a very long day at the office. Frech is solid, and I think this goes the distance or includes tiebreakers. When someone you know how to beat/have had success against goes on a run, it almost incentivizes you to defeat them because they have that buzz, that elder wand status at the moment. I think Kudermetova is playing great but there’s half a target on her back now as the new young phenom. At the end of the day, I think Kudermetova’s strokes are more reliable and create more power, so I’ll lean towards her. Kudermetova in 3.

Saville vs Blinkova :

These two played in Hobart 2024, with Saville winning in three. Daria is likely to have even more support at the AO, so this will be uphill for Blinkova. So far this season, she’s been off but Saville has been a little worse. Saville’s forehand might be the biggest shot on the court, but Blinkova’s weight of shot is bigger consistently, so if I didn’t see the Hobart result, I’d like her side of this. Blinkova in 3.

Uchijima vs Linette :

Linette crashed out pretty quick last week against Maya Joint, but the young Australian really played some solid tennis. I like Linette to rebound here, and she’s leading the h2h 3-0 against Uchijima. Uchijima tends to thrive against players she hits bigger than, and her and Linette are pretty evenly matched. Linette has more offensive capabilities and a better serve, and that’s what’s propelled her through in the past. The one bright point is that each match has gotten closer, and Uchijima did win a set in Beijing. Perhaps she finally reverses the trend? I still like Linette in 3.

Bouzkova vs Andreeva :

Both these players are playing well right now, so this should be another close match. This draw is similar to the ATP side in that a lot of similar players are competing. The biggest difference I see here is in their forehand. Andreeva can lose depth at times going crosscourt but she hits harder off that wing than Bouzkova, who tends to do most of the work with her legs and her backhand. Andreeva is probably the better server as well, but Bouzkova in good form can make life difficult on anyone so this will be a tough mental test for Andreeva. Andreeva in 2.

Shnaider vs Cocciaretto :

There are high expectations hanging over Shnaider this year. Last season she finished at number 13 in the rankings, and she has 4 titles already on tour. Her consistency and her huge lefty forehand make her a really tough player to play, and her skill is incredible as well, as showcased in her Silver medal in the doubles at the Olympics (with Mirra Andreeva). Shnaider is great, and the wins should continue. Cocciaretto has the serve and power to score on Shnaider, but maybe not the defensive abilities. Shnaider in 2.

Tomljanovic vs Krueger :

This will be one of the best matches of the day, in a tournament where the majority of the matches are close and players are playing near their best tennis. Ashlyn Krueger is like Samsonova, Sabalenka, and Rybakina all rolled into one. She can really spray errors at times and has struggled to bring her best game to an entire match, but there’s been a big shift this year where she’s able to play well in deciding sets. That’s a huge step for a power player and it also means victories, because the way she’s able to hit the ball can do serious damage against tired legs. It’ll be interesting to see how she stacks up against Tomljanovic, who isn’t quite back to her best self yet but is hinting at arriving there soon. Ajla crushes the ball and has found some very good results at major events by just staying steady. With Krueger coming off a few good weeks already, she should win but those lapses can be tricky since Ajla isn’t really looking to make errors and is one of the few that can match Krueger’s power. Krueger in 2-3.

Vondrousova vs Fett :

Vondrousova is injured again. She left the court in tears in Adelaide, and so this is really not a simple match to analyze. Fett has big power in her forehand, but she’s a level below Marketa. If Vondrousova is okay, I think she rolls here. If she’s injured at all, I don’t actually expect her to take the court. She has major titles to her name already and is still pretty early in her career to be risking compounding an injury. Vondrousova in 2.

Parry vs Vekic :

Vekic lost her last two tour level matches to Putintseva, and that’s not entirely unexpected. Here, she’s favored to beat Diane Parry, but I’m not sure it’ll be so simple. Parry can definitely struggle on hardcourt, but she beat Vekic in 3 last time they played, and Vekic has lost her last four matches. Parry hasn’t played yet this season, so she might not start out so sharp, but that seems like a big assumption to make. I’m a Parry fan, so I think this will be close. The warmup matches do count though, so Donna has a good shot here to level the h2h. Vekic in 3.

Pavlyuchenkova vs Yuan :

Yuan is generally a good strong baseliner, so seeing her struggle to maintain a consistent level on tour is a little puzzling. Pavlyuchenkova is a tough matchup for her because both hit the ball hard and don’t really like to move off the baseline. Normally I’d like Pavs her because she serves a bit more efficiently than Yuan but she didn’t play since the US Open last season and I didn’t catch her opening match against Vondrousova. I’m a little blind here, but I think Yuan has a lot more to play for and she’s played 4 times as much tennis this month. Yuan in 3.

Zidansek vs Potapova :

Zidansek may have fallen off in the past few seasons, but her forehand is still brilliant. She was able to navigate through qualifying and now plays a big name who’s not in the best spirits. Potapova did a lot of shouting and racquet swiping during the loss against Birrell, and Zidansek did take her to a deciding set in all their previous meetings, actually taking the most recent match in Monastir in 2022. I think Potapova being such a big hitter means she needs a quick start to really let loose, and the errors that fly when sets are close seem to trigger more to arrive. It’s something for her team to work on, or not. This I think will be close. Zidansek shouldn’t be able to win, but she’s done well in the past. Potapova in 3.

Siegemund vs Baptiste :

This is gonna beeeeee so goooooood. Baptiste has huge power and a great serve, and she’s starting to really compete well on tour. Siegemund has seemed like the tricky veteran out there for her entire career, and she still has the ability to frustrate opponents with her tenacious defending. I like Baptiste’s chances here because she just had a great little run in Auckland, but she has some losses against baseliners that show she can still be dragged into marathons and defeated. This is really tough to call. Baptiste is the obvious pick but Siegemund served 69% first serves in against Bencic in her loss and she’s the exact type of player who can frustrate Baptiste into errors. Baptiste should get through here, I just think it may take 3 sets.

Zheng vs Todoni :

A.A. Todoni is probably one of the best WTA prospects to appear in a very long time. People might call me crazy or say I’m asking too much, but her game is big enough to compete for majors. She’s a solid athlete and moves extremely well for a 6’0” athlete. She hits the fuzz off the ball and competes well, and with a clay background she’s already fairly consistent. The match her and Noskova played was such high level hitting that it made me think Noskova could beat Andreeva (she could not), and while Todoni is not there yet, I think this is a match you really want to tune into. What I liked from the Noskova loss is that Todoni was willing to go shot for shot even while down in the scoreline. The scoreline never affected her aggression or belief, and that’s big because going all out while you’re losing is how you can find the next level quickest. She has a great run through qualifying, beating Lepchenko and Jimenez Kasintseva, and while Zheng is likely too large of an ask, it’ll be exciting tennis. Zheng not having any warmup matches makes me think this could be tricky, but the odds are she’s training well during the offseason, so Zheng in 2. Todoni can hit with her, but ending the points will be tricky and Zheng’s serving will be a big boost.