2025 Australian Open Women's Round One Monday & Tuesday Matches

Gauff vs Kenin :

Gauff is one of the few players that have a really good chance to win this tournament. Every season that passes sees her game improve, and the results that have come even while she irons out issues with her forehand and serving are as good as anyone on tour. Kenin was a great champion, but she seems to only get her timing together for a set at a time. Gauff in 2.

Jeanjean vs Burrage :

This is a fun matchup between two players with solid offense and who’ve gotten stuck off tour quite often. Burrage has been dealing with injury issues, and it’s great to have her back but she’s not at her sharpest yet. I think she hits harder overall than Jeanjean, but Leolia has a really solid forehand and looked good in qualifying. Slight edge to her, but both players could use this win. Jeanjean in 3.

Bucsa vs Paquet :

Both these players have powerful offense and not a lot of defense. I don’t mean to be reductive, obviously everyone on tour plays a tremendous level of tennis, I just see Bucsa and Paquet as players that generally only win when their opponents don’t hit that big. Bucsa with time has amazingly quick groundstrokes, and Paquet has one of the better serves on tour. Here I expect Bucsa to win. These fast courts are good for her game and she has a much better backhand than Chloe. Bucsa in 2 close sets.

Starodubstseva vs Fernandez :

Starodubtseva and Fernandez are already on court so I can’t take credit for a prediction here. Staro is not completely healthy so Leylah should win.

Muchova vs Podoroska :

Podoroska has a good ability to push the pace but Muchova hits bigger on both wings, and serves better. Karolina looked decent at the United Cup so I think she can win this in 2.

Osaka vs Garcia :

Osaka was in tears after her withdrawal so I’m not sure how she’ll play here. It’s natural to feel a bit emotional when you work so hard to get back on the court and get injured, but it may hopefully have been an overreaction. Osaka is such a great player and has given the sport a complete career already, so hopefully she gets a few more years. I think she could really really really use some sort of ego-dissolving practice to give her perspective and allow her to enjoy tennis again. It always feels unfair to judge Osaka for the awkward social media posts, or to judge her at all when she’s admitted having some mental health issues, but I do think she can access the tools and methods to help her shift things a bit.

The results-oriented reactions are a tricky juxtaposition with the forced smiles after losing a point, the little footwork shuffle reset she does after a miss, so sometimes it feels like Osaka is being micromanaged to a degree where she’s at times not totally sure who she is or what she wants to do. Coaching is such a mainstay in tennis since a young age and it does feel like a number of players on tour don’t really get the emotional maturity that they might if they were living a more mainstream/independent life. Once you’ve secured a few big titles as Osaka has, you’re basically set even if you never do anything again. Osaka can go out there and hit underhand serves for a whole year. She can play dropshots. She can go for big shots and interact with the crowd. She can have fun, and I’m not hitting the “you should smile more” cliche, I really would like to see Osaka enjoy tennis again.

Osaka is allowed to do as she pleases obviously, but honestly the demeanor she’s been coached into on the court and the Vogue photoshoots and so much about Osaka’s life just feels like someone else’s decision. We all make our own decisions in life, but often we choose the path of least resistance when it means deferring to the whims of others. You can imagine a tennis prodigy who’s worth so much money to so many people has had a constant hovering presence in every aspect of her life, and despite the “I have to support my family” post being deemed tone-deaf, it does speak to an underlying feeling of being beholden to someone else for much of her life. In life, we may not always agree with someone else’s perspective or reported troubles, but it doesn’t mean they aren’t experiencing exactly that. This isn’t a simple task either. It is a really difficult thing (even for someone worth millions) to step back and do some self-inquiry, and for all the self-help gurus on the net there really aren’t a ton of people out there who can really help you let go of your troubles and develop new, healthier perspectives, and from that list generally not every teacher’s methods or explanation will suit you or resonate with you at whatever stage you’re at in life.

Tennis, I guess, is what we’re here to discuss. Garcia hasn’t played much, and Osaka played great for a week before getting injured. If Osaka is healthy, she wins. If she has to withdraw, I will make a sad face. Osaka in 2.

Erjavec vs Lamens :

This one started already. I did feel that Lamens is a little bit burnt out mentally and sunburnily after a lot of matches in the last few months, but still the better player. Erjavec lost the first 7-5. They played three last time, but I think Lamens has more stamina so it might be the end for Erjavec.

Bencic vs Ostapenko :

Bencic won their previous meeting but it’s been a few years. Ostapenko has started off the year in half-decent for, but Bencic was extremely active this winter and is playing some really solid tennis. I think her defense is a cut above Ostapenko’s, and in a difficult match I’ll take the more active player. Bencic will be motivated to have a good result here after a lengthy injury break. Bencic in 3.

Badosa vs Xinyu Wang :

Badosa almost became a consistent player again last season, so you can expect her to beat Wang here. She fixed some of her forehand and timing issues, and seems fairly healthy after a lot of back issues. If her defense is there, Wang will hit herself out of this match. She has a huge forehand but struggles almost all the time (even in match wins) with maintaining depth and minimizing unforced errors. It’s amazing to watch her play when she’s winning but Badosa should be able to navigate this. Badosa in 2-3.

Sonmez vs Gibson :

Sonmez is one of the best players coming onto the tour this year. She has won a ton of matches at the 100k and Challenger events just off tour (not sure if they’re officially called Challenger events honestly), and she plays really solid. I think her results will mostly be within her weight class and against players struggling to find form, but she has a really consistent baseline game and hits the ball well. There isn’t a real hole in her game, so Gibson will have her hands full here. The Aussies are thriving because they’re comfortable with the heat there, but Sonmez is a tiny bit better at this point. Sonmez in 2.

Niemeier vs Chwalinska :

Niemeier manages to constantly be in a slump, but still hit some of the best shots on tour. She’s incredibly powerful, but can be forced into errors if you move her well. As a result, I think she has the power to hit through Chwalinska, but maybe not the stamina. As this match progresses, I expect Chwalinska to get on the front foot and start taking more control. Chwalinksa in 3.

Hibino vs Kostyuk :

These matches are always tough. Hibino is peaking right now, but is playing someone who’s whole game is really bigger than hers. Kostyuk doesn’t really make a ton of errors, and I tend to think of her as someone who can compete with the top players for a set rather than being someone whose game dips significantly. She lost to Krueger last week, but a lot of people are going to lose to Krueger this year; she has the ability to become a top 10 player if she irons out the errors. Kostyuk in 2-3 here, I think she’s better but Hibino has a way of grinding you down.

Samsonova vs Rakhimova :

Tough time to play Samsonova. She was hitting the ball really well last week, and almost beat Madison Keys. An injury withdrawal makes this a bit tricky, but if she’s healthy for this Rakhimova doesn’t have a great path forward. Kamila basically hits solid and tries to outlast her opponents, and the result is very long sets and very close matches. Samsonova can spray errors, but after a week of her playing well it would make more sense if her forehand was the biggest weapon on the court and her stability was just good enough to beat Rakhimova in 2.

Rus vs Danilovic :

Rus has a way of always winding up in a third set, but Danilovic beat her quite easily in their last meeting. Danilovic lost to Joint in a lopsided match last week in Hobart, but Joint was playing really well so that result can be slightly discounted. Danilovic in 2. Rus is a tough out but Danilovic hits bigger and Rus’ lateral movement is not great.

Mertens vs Golubic :

Mertens is playing well again, and made the finals of Hobart. For me, that means she beats Golubic. Mertens hits a bit harder, and Golubic will have a hard time breaking down Merten’s backhand. Since Golubic is on a run of 5 wins in a row, this could be close than the Hobart result indicates. Mertens in 3.

Pegula vs Joint :

Not a cool draw. Maya Joint has gotten a lot better and can really play a good level. i like her chances against a good 50% of this draw, but not against Pegula. Pegula had a good week and her flat hitting is pretty effective on hardcourt. Joint will make this competitive, but I think she’ll have a difficult time scoring on Pegula. Pegula in a long 2 sets.

Rybakina vs Jones :

Rybakina is being massively distracted here by discussion of her relationship with coach Stefano Vukov, yet when I filled out my draw I still had her going fairly deep. She has some very random losses in her history, but playing a wild card in round one I think she navigates through. Rybakina in 2.

Parrizas-Diaz vs Jovic :

Parrizas-Diaz has been really active lately so this will be an interesting match. Jovic is one of the top prospects from the USTA right now. She won a boatload of matches last season, and I think she’s a little better on hardcourt than NPD. While that’s the case, Parrizas-Diaz has a uniquely flat style and she is a tenacious defender. This is a match where I like Jovic’s side, but I think the volume of tennis that Nuria makes you play will result in a third set. Jovic in 3.

Kovinic vs Sun :

Danka Kovinic isn’t back to her best, and Lulu Sun has been struggling a bit lately. Sun showed signs of life last week, so she’s a healthy favorite here, but i don’t expect Kovinic to slump forever. Sun in 2.

Sherif vs Yastremska :

Hmm. Someone who’ll make you play 1,000 balls vs someone who swings as hard as they can at every ball. By the end of this, Yastremska should be in really good form, or completely miserable. I think it’ll be the former, because while Yastremska makes a number of unforced errors, Sherif has a tough time holding serve even with the lead. Yastremska in 2-3.

Keys vs Li :

Ann Li is starting to play well again, and its interesting that dropping some of the muscle mass has coincided with this. Keys is one of the best players on tour right now, so this is a rough draw. Li has the offensive drives to score, but Keys should win this fairly easily. They both make a number of errors, but Keys in form beats most of the tour. Keys in 2.

Begu vs Ruse :

Begu isn’t at her best right now, but she’s still a good server and a powerful player. Ruse coming through qualifying should indicate a good enough form to win, and she did actually beat Begu on clay as well in their only meeting. Ruse in 2.

Minnen vs Aiava :

Aiava recently complained that team Aussie didn’t really practice or hang much at the United Cup, and while some people backed up her claims, and some said she was asking for too much, I thought it was a good complaint. Aiava hasn’t really seemed totally committed to tennis in the past, so anything that indicates she wants to train and get better is positive to me. She has a lot of power and a pretty good serve, and I honestly think she’s an even match for Minnen here. Minnen serves well and her offense should score on Aiava, but I don’t really see her winning the majority of the baseline rallies here. Aiava in 3.

Snigur vs Collins :

This might be spicy. Collins is on a run of 6 losses in a row, and Snigur has a very unique game. Her forehand production is unique, and she hits very flat. Collins was okay against Jabeur, but faded in the second set in Adelaide. The string of losses and her having referenced her retirement a few times already make me think this could be another big Snigur moment. Daria in 3? My problem with this prediction is that she has gassed out a few times against top competition when she gets to a third, but this is likely to be a very close contest in some stretches. Collins in 3? SNIGUR IN 3? COLLINS IN 8? THE MATCH NEVER ENDING???? IDK Snigur in 3 is my actual suspicion. Collins in a slump is something we have seen before and this is tricky.

Haddad Maia vs Riera :

Riera is much better on clay, so even though BHM can really play a frustrating level of tennis at times she should have ample time to win here. Haddad Maia in 2.

Zheng Saisai vs Erika Andreeva :

Zheng was a good defender when she was on tour, but she hasn’t been at her best since her return and Erika is starting to win more matches on tour. Andreeva in 2.

Veronika Kudermetova vs Gadecki :

Kudermetova found some good tennis at just the right time, and now she has a good chance against a hometown favorite. Gadecki is a bit like Krueger. She has enough power to really become a top player, but it’s still hard to control at this stage. Kudemertova at her best hits with good depth and has a lot of pop on the ball, so this will really be about who can defend better, and that’s probably Kudermetova. Veronika’s form can come and go pretty randomly, and Gadecki can take the racquet out of your hands, but I think this is Kudermetova in 2-3.

Marino vs Boulter :

I like Boulter here. She has as good of a serve as Marino and is a lot more mobile. Marino has been doing well lately but I think Boulter’s work at the United Cup was just sharp enough and she did defeat Rebecca in both their previous meetings. Boulter in 2.

Cirstea vs Svitolina :

This is my kind of match. Cirstea is struggling for form and has done poorly at this event in the past few seasons, and Svitolina is recovering from foot surgery and this is her first match back. Neat. Cirstea’s whole game is about power and offense, so her in poor form is a bad idea against a great retriever like Svitolina. Should be a rusty but nostalgic match. Svitolina in 2-3.

Dolehide vs Bejlek :

Bejlek seems like she grew a bit since last season, and the extra pace she’s hitting with is really making her more effective. Dolehide still has the best kick serve I’ve seen on the women’s tour, but errors are always an issue for her and Bejlek plies that lefty game pretty much constantly. I don’t think Dolehide’s backhand will hold up. Bejlek in 2.

Townsend vs Zarazua :

If these two both play well, this should be great. Zarazua’s forehand and serve are not ideal for hardcourt, but her backhand is automatic. Townsend has one of the most fun offenses to watch on tour, but she can also send shots 10 feet past the baseline when her timing is off. Zarazua playing recently matters to me, but Townsend had a good 2024 and should be able to isolate Zarazua’s forehand enough to win. Townsend in 3.

Paolini vs Wei :

Last year’s major hero vs this year’s minor hero. Wei has really won a bunch lately, and her game is very interesting. She has a solid backhand, effective dropshots, and she seems to be improving while on tour. Her run through qualifying was against excellent competition (Sasnovich, Stojanovic, Korpatsch) and this should be fun. I think Paolini’s speed will let her navigate this well, but honestly I wonder how long she can keep up her heroic level of play. 2024 was a unique season for her, and it’ll be interesting to see how she backs it up. Paolini in 2-3.

Navarro vs Stearns :

Emma Navarro started off the year in rough form, but last week she was able to defeat Alexandrova. She ended 2024 on a slump as well, so her playing an opponent she has defeated in all previous meetings has to be a welcome thing. Stearns has already defeated Veronika Kudermetova, Sakkari, and taken sets off Badosa and Kasatkina this year, so this will be close if Navarro is not at her best. I think Navarro’s speed and defense make it really tough for Stearns to score, and when she forces offense with her forehand she can sometimes lose her timing. Navarro to grind through against is the most likely outcome, but this will probably be their closest match ever. Navarro in 3.

Wang Xiyu vs Grabher :

Good to see Grabher back on tour, but this is a tough first round. Grabher is a lot better on clay, so Wang in 2.

Kalinina vs Jabeur :

Kalinina is peaking and Jabeur is doing something that is somewhat successful but looks bad. She looks fatigued on court, and yet still is a very tough out. Kalinina has huge power and can score on Jabeur, but I think that Jabeur tends to thrive when she has the bigger forehand. Kalinina needs to isolate Jabeur’s backhand to have a shot here, but she’s playing well so it’s entirely possible fo her to get to a deciding set. Jabeur playing a bunch of subpar tennis is still Jabeur playing a bunch of tennis, so I think she’ll put it together. Jabeur in 3.

Osorio vs Sakkari :

Sakkari is still making decisions on the fly on the court, but she’s playing decent tennis. Osorio is sharper about shot selection, but has less weapons than Maria. Sakkari in 2.

Putintseva vs Avanesyan :

This is likely to take a long time. Avanesyan can retrieve any ball, and maintains excellent depth when retrieving. For every break though, she gets herself in trouble in the following service game. I think the end result here is Putintseva squeaking through because she’s a bit more offensive minded in her service games and play steady throughout. Avanesyan is right there in all her matches, but she needs to fix her shot selection on serve. Putintseva in 2.

Zhang Shuai vs Kessler :

McCartney Kessler just turned in her best week ever in Hobart, winning the title in Hobart. This should make her a big favorite here, but Zhang just beat her in straight sets in September. Zhang has really strong groundstrokes, and when she was playing full-time on tour she could compete with anyone. Since Kessler does most of her work in the rallies, I think Zhang’s power starts to make a difference. Coming off a first title also there’s likely to be some physical and mental fatigue, so I’d circle this one as being a bit of a trap. Someone in 3.

Bondar vs Wang Yafan :

Wang withdrew from her opening match against Brisbane, so there’s reason to believe Bondar can get through here. Bondar has a lot of power but less than stellar speed (she’s kinda tall), so a player like Wang who can extend rallies and utilize height and spin can be tough. Still, injury concerns always make me doubt people. Bondar in 2.

Kasatkina vs Tomova :

I really liked how Kasatkina started the season. She played well against Stearns, and she remarked herself that she felt good about her stamina and level. That fitness is going to be a big factor in this tournament, and I think Kasatkina is primed for a deep run here. Tomova is a tough start because she hits the ball so hard, but I don’t think she hugs the baseline aggressively enough to really hit through Kasatkina even with control. Kasatkina in a long 2.

Kalinskaya vs Birrell :

Guessing whether Kalinskaya is healthy is tricky. I know Birrell is playing well, and she has good power. I know Kalinskaya withdrew from her last match and lost to Krueger to open the season. I’m not really sure how I can blindly declare her the winner, but she does have the ability to outlast Birrell in rallies if she’s healthy. Kalinskaya is one of the best baseliners in tennis, but when she’s not 100% she can really lose to anyone. Hard to call anything here.

Gracheva vs McNally :

The return of McNally is exciting. Gracheva plays like mini-Federer twice a year. I won’t lie, I can see the finish line and this makes this match tough to talk about. This probably goes three because neither one is at their best. I think Gracheva is more likely to create offense, but McNally has more variety in her game. I really don’t know anything except that it’s 11pm on Saturday but somehow it’s also 3pm on Sunday. HOW DOES TIME WORK, AUSTRALIA? Gracheva in 3 on an undisclosed day.

Martic vs Cristian :

Lucky loser Martic will be happy with this draw. She wasn’t at her best recently but she’s been active, and Cristian is sometimes not sharp. For me, Martic’s backhand makes her beatable and Cristian has demonstrated a more consistent level of play lately. Cristian in 2.

Bronzetti vs Azarenka :

This should be a really fun battle. Bronzetti is a wall, and Azarenka just lost to Bouzkova who plays a very similar game to her. Azarenka has lost to Rakhimova and Wang in the past few months, so there’s a good chance she struggles here. Historically she plays well at the AO, but I really don’t see anyone beating Bronzetti easily unless they’re serving very well. Azarenka in 2, only because Bronzetti lost to Minnen and Zarazua so far this year and those are rough Ls for her style.

Alexandrova vs Raducanu :

I actually don’t see why Raducanu is favored here, but she was decent at the BJK cup and Alexandrova has lost a few matches. For me, Alexandrova is more likely to go on a run here, but Raducanu at her best will win this match with her steadiness. Are we about to get the good Raducanu? I don’t quite believe it but I’m open to it. Raducanu in Raducantwo? Oh yeah, the quality of this article is dropping quickly.

Anisimova vs Carle :

Anisimova withdrew from her last match against Avanesyan, but her offense is a bit too much for Carle to beat her if she’s playing well. Anisimova has one of the best offensive backhands on tour, and her serve can be a weapon as well. Carle is a good defender and has a nice run in Hobart, but the only way she wins this is if Anisimova isn’t 100%. Anisimova in 2.

Sramkova vs Volynets :

Volynets has a great tennis IQ. She isn’t the biggest hitter but she finds ways to win constantly. Here she faces one of the best surprises of 2024 in Rebecca Sramkova. Sramkova lost both her opening matches this season but Avanesyan and Kessler were both playing well. I think the volume of tennis that Volynets represents will let Sramkova find her best game, and she does hit a little harder than Volynets. Slight edge to Sramkova in 3.

Siniakova vs Swiatek :

Swiatek on hardcourt means me painting elaborate pictures of ways she might lose early. Siniakova played well in Adelaide, but is it enough? Swiatek can definitely be rushed on hardcourt, and Siniakova is good at generating pace on both wings. My problem with announcing doom is that Swiatek played fairly well at the United Cup. The win against Muchova and Boulter in particular are the type of challenge that a good Siniakova can represent. With all the pressure on Iga here and the slight distraction of her doping case, this is a tricky opener. Swiatek in 3.