2025 Australian Open Women's Finals

Sabalenka vs Keys :

If you tell someone there are two tournaments to start the year, and the winners of those two events are now in the finals of the next big event, they’d nod. “Of course”. We don’t usually get this in tennis though. There are a lot of tremendous matches over the course of a major, but in this event it feels like every round has gotten better. This finals is between the two biggest hitters on tour right now, and both are in just about their best form.

Sabalenka had a pretty quick win in the semifinals. She went down an immediate break, but it was partially due to the style she adopted for this match. Sabalenka swung as hard as she could on every ball from 0-0, and while this impacted her percentages early, once she started landing it created overwhelming pressure. Badosa started struggling with double faults in key moments, but it was not really nerves as much as it was Sabalenka’s aggressive returning. Badosa’s toss location has a bit more variance in it than most, so it gets even trickier.

Badosa played a decent match and scored when she had the chance, but most of her success in the earlier rounds had come from being very solid, and that alone doesn’t work against Sabalenka. Aryna’s offense is real, and she hit winner after winner in this match. She hits off both wings with more weight and pace than Badosa, and again this matchup saw Badosa struggle slightly with clean contact, and Sabalenka basically able to swing for the fences whenever she wanted. Since Sabalenka hits so hard, even when she’s in trouble she’s one big swing away from getting back to neutral.

I thought Swiatek had a better chance to beat her in the finals because she’s able to create sharp angles on her forehand and because her backhand goes down the line so well, but Keys really deserves this final. Her semifinal with Swiatek was the best match I have seen in quite some time. Her quarterfinals with Svitolina was the best of that round, and her match against Rybakina the round before was the best of the r16 offerings. Keys has been dishing out heroic performances this whole fortnight, and her game is really dangerous. Swiatek started off their match by keeping Madison moving. She was up and early break, and even after giving it back she managed to break again and close out for 7-5. Keys and Sabalenka actually had similar approaches, and once Swiatek stopped keeping Keys at bay, she was in big trouble. Swiatek’s serve had been really effective this week, and she kept her first serve percentages high in this match throughout. The delivery got less and less effective as things went though. Iga won 59% of 1st and 36% of 2nd serve points in the first set, but only 38% of 1st and 0% of 2nd serve points in the second set. The number tell the tale of Keys staying in and returning aggressively.

Once Swiatek was in trouble, she made a few more errors while trying to dictate, and she played a bit more defensively. Looking to outlast Keys is a viable strategy, but in her current form she’s shown that it’s 50/50 at best. The third set saw Keys miss a few break point chances while leading 3-4, and things looked over as she went down 0-40 in the next game. She managed to save 4 break points in that game, and it felt like the moment she really earned her place in the finals. That rebound break after missing a break chance is so prevalent in tennis, but not as prevalent as trading breaks at 5-5 in the deciding set. The 10 point tiebreaker was a great end to the match, but Swiatek will be a bit upset with the loss. Keys made a handful of errors in the first half of the breaker, and Iga just wasn’t able to establish distance. In the end, Keys hit two unreturnable first serves at 7-8, and that was the difference. Keys has been able to produce her offense in big moments, and her opponents really have been looking for her to regress so it’s a big factor.

It’s good to see Badosa and Swiatek elevating their respective levels on hardcourt, but for now Sabalenka and Keys are setting the top level of the tour. In this matchup, Sabalenka holds a 4-1 lead, with Keys’ one win coming on grass. The reason’s why are slight but consistent. Sabalenka has a slight bigger forehand, with a more efficient takeback and better defensive ability. She has a tremendous backhand technique, and she manages to lean on this shot well. In the past I’ve seen a lot of counterpunching and rallies at the top level, but it seems that at this point being able to hit big can overcome slight lapses in defense or speed. Keys’ backhand is a cannon, and her ability to go down the line will definitely expose Sabalenka’s movement, but Sabalenka has the more reliable backhand in neutral rallies. I think Sabalenka might be a more fluid mover as well, although Keys has done a lot of work on improving her fitness. In the serve department, they both have top tier deliveries, but Sabalenka’s serve tends to get more effective as a match wears on. In set 1 against Badosa she won 67% of her first serve points, but in set 2 she delivered a whopping 92% won. Sabalenka does everything a tiny bit better, and her defense tends to be a little more stable so it’s hard for Keys to win without really delivering something special.

Sabalenka and Keys famously played a US Open semifinal in 2023, a match that saw Keys up 6-0 in the first, and up several breaks in the second, including serving for the match before losing a tiebreaker. She was up a break in the 3rd as well before losing another tiebreaker, and after that match Keys’ results dropped off in a major way for a while. Those sort of tragic losses tend to sit with you for a while, so it’s good that she’s getting to play on a big stage again against the same opponent. After the US Open, their most recent meeting was a 6-3, 6-4 win for Sabalenka in Beijing, and that’s what I’m expecting here. Keys is playing tremendous, but Sabalenka has made some big strides in the past two years. She’s experiencing 2-3 poor games per match, but commitment to big hitting has seen her become somewhat unplayable. Keys Sabalenka feels a bit like Shelton Sinner. Keys has the offense to make this a tremendously exciting and close contest, but I don’t think her defense will hold up in a long match. Sabalenka in 2.