2025 Australian Open Women's 4th Round Day 1

Djokovic vs Lehecka :

Finally Djokovic gets the chance to play a backwards hat Czech prodigy. This is shaping up to be a very interesting draw for Novak, and a straight sets win against Machac lets him head into this one at a solid level. Djokovic dropped sets against his first two opponents, but he was locked in against Machac. He didn’t give Tomas any pace to work with, and he barely made errors. Machac had done well against Djokovic before, but he really couldn’t score in this one and he looked less than 100% at times. All that’s missing here for Djokovic is a slight injury that the media focuses on while he wins a major. We’ve already had the random set drop to an American, then the match that makes us think he might be vulnerable, followed by the “oops he’s the GOAT” performance. Jokes aside, this is one of the most difficult draws he has had in a while, and it should illustrate how much easier it is to contend for big titles as a top seed. The 7th seed’s path here is already a mess, and this match is not easy.

Machac has good pace on his shots and speed, but the weight of shot is not really there in the same way Lehecka’s is. Djokovic was able to reflect his shots, and once the scoreline got bad it was prominent how uphill any comeback would be for Machac. Lehecka is a different opponent than Machac for a few reasons here. He hits much harder, he’s not nursing any injuries, and he’s serving as well as he ever has. When Jiri lands his first serve, it reminds me a bit of Djokovic. He has such good pop on the ball for a guy who doesn’t seem huge, and he tends to hit very small targets. No one can serve Djokovic out in a 3/5 match, but you need to be able to score quickly against him. Djokovic in a rhythm from the baseline stops missing and gets more and more creative, so short points are a key. Lehecka hitting hard can also work in his favor. Djokovic sometimes appears as if an invisible explosion has occurred near him after a miss. He mistimes a ball, then he crumples in an exaggerated manner and gestures at the air and floor as if they shifted. It’s not frequent, but one of the things that causes it is simply extremely heavy ballstriking.

Lehecka has been at his best, and I think it’s just good enough to compete with Novak. They had a three set match at the United Cup, but it was bad news for Lehecka as the scoreline was 6-1, 6-7, 6-1 for Djokovic. Lehecka can hang onto his serve here as long as he’s fresh, but I think his huge hitting will eventually lead to errors if Djokovic is able to extend rallies. This is definitely going to be more competitive than the Machac match because of Lehecka’s physical strength and serving, but Djokovic in 4 is the likely outcome.

Draper vs Alcaraz :

I am going to shift my entire opinion of Vukic. That performance last night was incredible. I’ve never seen him serve so well, nor have I see him go after his forehand with that much aggression and success. He must have had a really productive offseason to bring that level, and in the past I’ve often seen him as a passive baseliner so it was wild to see him crushing winners against Draper. Jack is 20% exhausted, but it doesn’t seem to go past that point. He looks less than fit, but he just keeps playing good tennis. If we weren’t used to a higher level from him, we’d likely be lauding his efforts. Only a few chances remain to cheer for him, because his tournament is over. Three 5-setters is a lot for anyone, but now he plays Alcaraz who seems like he went to 4 against Borges because he wanted to play more tennis.

Alcaraz looks great this event, and this is his first big test. That sounds weird to say, since Borges is a very capable player, but Alcaraz is at a different level here. He looks interested in tennis, and he enjoys it the way a puppy enjoys playing. The more you turn it up, the more engaged Alcaraz gets. Draper will be able to compete here because he can end points in one swing (including the serve), but Alcaraz is a combination of everyone he’s faced thus far. The defensive presence and solid backhand of Navone. The massive forehand of Vukic, and the fresh haircut of Kokkinakis.

Fresh Draper loses to Alcaraz in this long format, so fatigued Draper is toast. It’ll be fun, but will feel inevitable. Draper was somewhat lucky to sneak by Vukic, and a controversial net-touch may have even gone his way. Alcaraz in 3.

Davidovich Fokina vs Paul :

It was hard to watch Mensik in the third set. He got a medical treatment on his foot, and it was pretty clear he had a blister on the top of his foot. The one announcer asked the other about it, and luckily the other announcer cagily didn’t confirm or deny the malady, and offered that lots of players tape their feet. Still, even while protecting the innocent, Mensik’s face and body language made it clear that he was struggling to move. He went down 5-3 and the match started to feel like a long painful win for ADF, but Fokina is not the type to win. He’s the type to be about to win and go down 0-40. ADF gave the break back, barely got to the tiebreaker, and then saved multiple match points. If you can, go watch the third set tiebreaker, it was one of the most exciting builds I’ve seen and ADF played some incredibly perfect points to hang in there. The match took a while to complete, but that made it worse as a fan. Mensik clearly knew he was going down, and he just couldn’t push through the pain to change that fact. He was the better player, but blisters in tennis are a killer. The top of the foot is easier to manage, but once you have to stop play and get treatment mid-match, you know things are pretty bad.

Up next is the end of the road for Fokina. He can bring a really high level of tennis, but his two big wins here have asterisks near them. FAA was at the end of a very long run of wins, and Mensik got injured. Tommy has won all 3 meetings between the two, and with his solid backhand he’s well equipped to battle ADF all day. He has a much better first serve, and his forehand is better as well. Paul has won all three previous meetings, although last year’s AO was a 5 set win. Here I just think Paul is fresher and ADF will be somewhat satisfied. “He can’t keep getting away with this” will be the feeling if this starts to go deep, but I think Paul is uniquely fresh for this after having a quiet winter. Paul in 3-4.

Humbert vs Zverev :

I haven’t watched much Zverev yet, because his matches have been so straightforward. This is the first time I’ll really catch a large chunk of the matches, and it should be a very good look at his chances to win this title. Beating Humbert isn’t the mark of a champion, but Humbert has a very precise and accurate offense. If you give him time, or a short ball, he will score on you. This is a key for Zverev analysis, because the one thing that holds him back from being a Grand Slam winner is losing depth on his forehand, and passivity during rallies. He can serve and defend his way through this because he’s physically dominant, but can he beat Humbert from the baseline as well? There isn’t a real reason for Zverev to have to drop a set here, but it’s mental focus and maturity that are the question marks. I think Zverev’s first big test will see him blink, but since his backhand is so good it’s hard for lefties to beat him because they have to switch out of their usual patterns. Zverev in 4.

Women’s Singles :

Sabalenka vs Andreeva :

Sabalenka took the long road to beat Clara Tauson. Tauson continues to improve and her power is enough to score on anyone. If she irons out her stamina issues she could actually challenge for major titles. I haven’t seen anyone really hit with Sabalenka without blinking in a while, and it’s about the best third round loss that anyone can take. For now, Sabalenka remains a difficult puzzle to solve. She’s physically dominant in most matchups against big hitters due to her agility, and she hits too hard on her average shots for the defensive players to really outduel her. The titles and success seem to have doubled her motivation, and physical training is a great way to make double fault and unforced error issues disappear. When you have to make an adjustment or your opponent is giving you a tough time, it’s tricky. When you have full control of your body and all the parts are functioning well, it’s easier.

Andreeva is always a threat, but she hasn’t been convincing so far this week. Three sets with Frech and Uchijima make this a really tough contest, and Sabalenka just beat her in Brisbane in straight sets. Sabalenka’s attitude on court can cost her a few games, but Andreeva doesn’t hit big enough to score on her for an entire match. This has that feeling to it of “too obvious” and given Tauson’s surprise success it could wind up being tricky, but what is the difference between here and Brisbane? Sabalenka should win in 2.

Vekic vs Pavluchenkova :

I keep forgetting what year it is. I checked the h2h for this, saw AO 2024 Pavlyuchenkova 2-0, and got hyped that the results were already listed. I love knowing the future, but I should perhaps focus on knowing the present. It’s 2025, and that means Vekic still has a chance. She won a very tough match against Shnaider, one where she was down a break in every set and managed to battle back. Seeing Vekic scramble on defense always looks like it won’t work out, but the depth she managed to find from awkward positions really made a difference. Shnaider had time and opportunities, but hitting clean winners from behind the baseline is a tough ask. She made a number of great shots, but she missed a few as well at key times.

Vekic has lost the last two in straight sets to Pavlyuchenkova, and I think Anastasia’s patience plays a big role in that. She isn’t going to try to hit around you, she’s just going to make solid contact and play in safe patterns until she can end the rally. She played incredibly last round against Siegemund, and despite being an unknown commodity (in terms of level) coming into this tournament, she’s starting to look like she could win here. Vekic is almost at her best, but she’s more error prone than her opponent. Shnaider I think is a tougher test than Pavs, but experience and past demons can play a role in outcomes. Pavlyuchenkova in 3. Vekic is playing well, but she hasn’t changed anything about her game, so whatever was holding her back in this matchup before will still be there.

Gauff vs Bencic :

Little blurry on this one. Gambling in its current form is a net negative on society. It’s full of predatory business practices, it removes capital from local economies without ever returning it, it has a drain emotionally and physically on those who lose, and claims of “tax revenue” are laughably shortsighted and not really even logical. That being said, the lines offered for tennis often contain a lot of information, so I look at them daily. Here, Bencic has just outdueled Osaka, but is +500 against Bencic. That is a lot larger than what I thought. I know Gauff is playing well, but Bencic is on a tear. She’s been steady from the baseline, hasn’t really broken down emotionally, and she’s one of the more talented players on tour. I know she was down early against Osaka, and won due to injury, but I have to give her some credit for her tenacious play causing that flareup of Osaka’s ab issue. Bencic lost to Gauff 1,2 in Washington 2023, but I still think this will be a good match. Maybe I’m not seeing this clearly. Gauff can be the best player on tour for patches; maybe she’s shrugged off the lapses in serving ability, maybe she’s ironed out the slight forehand length issues that can arise. Besting Fernandez in straight sets is a good sign, so I’ll sit back and go against my own judgement here. If Gauff doesn’t struggle with unforced errors, it does make sense for her to win comfortably. She’s faster than Bencic, hits harder, and is a bit younger. Bencic did have late struggles against Ostapenko and Lamens, so it’s possible that the pricing is more about her likelihood of winning a long match. Gauff in 2 feels entirely possible, but I would think it would be close. Osaka is not her old self, but I think it’s important to remember that her offense and power is something other players don’t really have at their disposal.

Badosa vs Danilovic :

Danilovic is on a great run here. Rus, Samsonova, and Pegula is usually good enough to be in the finals of a 250. At the majors, it just buys you another big name. Badosa hasn’t been a threat at majors in several years, but she’s playing well again. She had some good matches in 2024, and so far this season she has been really effective in defense. Paola is expected to win, but please keep in mind their one previous meeting on hardcourt went to Danilovic (albeit in 2019). Danilovic hits so hard and her opponent doesn’t make a difference to her willingness to compete, so her power against Badosa’s defense should make a great contest. I think the pace on Paola’s forehand will be a slight difference here, but who can really declare Badosa any tougher of an opponent than Pegula or Samsonova. Danilovic’s ceiling has become a bit unknown here. I think Badosa outlasts her and her reach lets her do a bit better than Pegula, but this is likely to be close. Badosa in 3.