2025 Australian Open Round Three Day 2 Matches

Rybakina vs Yastremska :

This is probably the most lopsided match of this section of the draw, but it’s still not a safe spot for the favorite. Rybakina made quick work of Jovic, and she seems to be playing with focus which is excellent in a section of the draw that’s a bit soft for her. Yastremska has huge power and she’s playing well, but so far she’s played two clay-courters and they weren’t at their best. Yastremska can run off a few games in a row here but Rybakina’s serve always makes her a heavy favorite, and her ability to trade well from the baseline against big hitters also makes her steadiness a factor against Dayana. Basically, the unforced error count will decide this match, and I think Yastremska will be going uphill and force more shots. Rybakina in 2.

Keys vs Collins :

Ruse put up a tremendous fight against Keys, and I think I might have liked her against Collins also. I was basically going to pick the first solid baseliner Collins played, but Keys’ offense might also work here. They haven’t played on hardcourt since 2020 (Keys won), and last year’s clay-court meeting went to Keys in straights also. I thought Collins made too many unforced errors in round one, and she was her usually competitive self in round 2, but it wasn’t a much higher level. The frantically aggressive play is a great move, but I think Keys is playing a little too solid right now. Collins is capable of a high level, but the only thing I’m really concerned about here is that she’s a slightly better defender than Keys. If Collins is landing to Madison’s backhand, it could be a long day. Keys in 2. Collins hasn’t really shown the Grand Slam challenger level that she’s capable of, and I think it would have been there last round if it was summonable since she was in a tough spot.

Haddad vs Kudermetova :

September 21, 2024. Haddad Maia defeats Kudermetova 6-4, 6-4 October 9, 2024. Haddad Maia defeats Kudermetova 6-1, 6-4. January 18th, 2025. ??? Kudermetova had a rough season in 2024, but ended the year by racking up wins at the lower level. So far this week, she had one tough test, but she played admirably against Katie Boulter. Having lost twice and by a more convincing score the second time is not ideal, but a lot of people are looking at this as Kudermetova’s time. It’s a matchup nightmare if she’s not playing well, which she really wasn’t in those previous losses. Kudermetova goes very close to the baseline with her shots, and constantly applies pressure. If she’s a bit off, she’s a lot off. Early in her career she regularly traded lopsided sets as a result. Since BHM is a wall when she’s playing well, it makes sense for Kudermetova to struggle a bit in the matchup.

This week sees Haddad Maia in a mini-slump, and she almost lost to Riera in round one. Smoking Andreeva 2,3 is a solid win, but I’m not sure Andreeva would fare any different against Kudermetova. Veronika is peaking right now, so this is just about even for me. I’d have had Boulter against BHM, so I lean towards Kudermetova also. The best BHM wins, but she can lose the plot at times so I’m expecting the surging player to do well here. Kudermetova in 3.

Svitolina vs Paolini :

Whatever that gif is where the guy who looks kinda like Michael C Hall tilts his head, that’s the look I made when I saw this match. This is good stuff. Svitolina is back from an injury and playing fairly well. Paolini is looking to back up some absolutely meteoric stuff from last season. So far, neither have really been in a bad situation, so both should be fresh and compete well here. I don’t really know who is better, and this is their first meeting which feels crazy but makes it even more exciting. Paolini can run down anything. Svitolina can run down anything. Paolini’s forehand inside out is a huge shot, but Svitolina can take hers crosscourt and create similar issues. I don’t see any way for this to be over quick, as their strengths are similar and there aren’t glaring weaknesses here. A big serve is usually the thing that upends Paolini, but Svitolina isn’t exactly acing ppl. She’ll get balls to work with, but Paolini’s speed can usually make up for things. Since Svitolina is a little bit rusty, I like Paolini here. It could go three, but I almost expect the rallies in this to be so long that whomever loses the first is kinda mentally spent for the second. Paolini in 2.

Navarro vs Jabeur :

Wuh oh. Navarro is in rough form. She managed to outlast two great players thus far, defeating both Stearns and Wang Xiyu in 3, but it has not been simple. Emma seems to be improving a bit as she goes, but she’s not reliable right now. Her path to victory here is through endurance and defense, and it’s going to be close. Jabeur had some issues with her stamina the past few weeks, but she just won in straight sets twice so she’ll have a shot here. Jabeur’s forehand and skill make her even in any match, and this is likely another spot where Navarro will have to outlast her opponent. Wang was crushing returns last match, and Navarro’s serving patterns look to have been a bit solved. Even with the lead, I think Navarro has trouble with Jabeur, but trading breaks and dragging out a set is likely to her advantage. I think Navarro keeps it going here. She’s less reactive to the rough patches than Jabeur, and I think she’s managing the slump well and finding ways to win anyway. Navarro in 3.

Putintseva vs Kasatkina :

Kasatkina just defeated Putintseva in Ningbo, but it was a very rough win. She won 6-4, 1-6, 7-6, so Putintseva will feel positive and motivated heading into this. Or grumpy and cantankerous, either two. Putintseva has been playing well to start the year, but so has Kasatkina. I’m really happy as a fan that there’s this much depth in the tournament, but this is a close matchup. Putintseva definitely hits her backhand harder and plays more offensively, but Kasatkina is extremely fast and has looked exceptional on defense this year. I guess it’s Putintseva’s weight of shot and her similar defensive prowess that gives her a tiny bit more control, but her temperament is a liability at times. Real close situation here. Putintseva in 3.

Lys vs Cristian :

Amazing lucky loser result for Lys, and another somewhat winnable match. Lys has won every single one of their previous meetings, but all of them went to a deciding set. This is projected to be another amazing contest, and Cristian is hard to rule out. She finds ways to win as an underdog over and over. I check her scorelines during the year and she’s randomly in so many deciding sets where I felt she’d be toast. Lys having that h2h dominance is difficult to ignore, but it’s too easy to just predict another 3 set Lys win. Cristian might be a bit less consistent defensively than Lys so she’s getting outlasted, but it feels like she’s peaking right now so this should be 50/50. Lys in 3.

Raducanu vs Swiatek :

Yay! The good Raducanu! Alexandrova and Anisimova are excellent wins for Emma, and there is a gift and a curse ahead. It’s great for Raducanu to get a shot against the tour’s best while she’s playing well, but it’s a rough opponent for her. Swiatek has been able to expose the dips in Emma’s level in the past. Raducanu trades extremely well, but Swiatek tends to keep her moving and create angles and heights that aren’t ideal. Hitting at one pace against Raducanu lets her lock in, and Swiatek just puts a ton of junk on the ball. Add in the injuries and fitness issues, and suddenly the scrambling and late adjustments and trying to infuse your own pace becomes tough to do for an entire match. Since Raducanu has had a tough couple seasons some of the losses can be dismissed as data points, but Swiatek is playing well right now so the upset is unlikely. Swiatek in 2.

Men’s Singles :

Sinner vs Giron :

Sinner made me tune in for the first set, but he was never in real danger. Schoolkate showed great heart and his technique held up in pressure moments, but Jannik is nearly unbeatable. He does everything well, and he doesn’t panic. It’s likely that in this next match Giron will be able to find some offense as well, but it won’t matter. Giron played excellent against Etcheverry, and I will say that his backhand held up better than expected. He was able to go … not quite down the line, but he spread his backhand towards the duece side often enough to keep Etcheverry guessing and it paid off as he made it mostly a forehand battle. Giron will have to serve well here, and I think Sinner’s ability to redirect (while stable or on the run) will make life really tough on Giron, who likes to run around his backhand a lot. Sinner in 3.

Kecmanovic vs Rune :

Hurkacz really couldn’t land first serves in round two, and it cost him the match. Kecmanovic was able to put returns in play in every service game, and that’s just not the norm for Hurkacz. He got impatient, and it cost him the match, but without his serve he was likely going down anyway so the frustration made sense. Kecmanovic Rune is one I expect to have a lot of extended rallies, and a lot of deviations in how brave both are feeling. Rune wasn’t bad at all against Berrettini, and he served fairly well. His last match with Miomir went to three in Basel, and the one before that (both in 2023) went to Kecmanovic in straights. This should be pretty close. Kecmanovic should be able to take advantage of Rune’s deep court position, and his backhand will be a tougher obstacle than Berrettini’s. If I hadn’t watched the Hurkacz match, I’d have been more inclined to pick Kecmanovic here. Rune is unreliable and not the sharpest tennis player yet, but his ceiling is really high and he is at least even here in baseline rallies. Rune in 5.

Michelsen vs Khachanov :

For years I’ve been lauding Khachanov’s game, but he’s become somewhat of a top tier gatekeeper. Where does Michelsen sit? He’s shown moments that would plant him squarely outside the gate, and some peaks that make him seem like a future top 20 stalwart. Khachanov hasn’t been the best, but I have a difficult time picking Michelsen here. I’m just biased. Michelsen is serving better, and crushing his groundstrokes. I think he can get deep into this match, but I think Karen can drag him and win the physical battle. Khachanov’s height makes him a decent returner against the tall servers, and he reflects power well. He definitely has the less offensive game, but his backhand is a wall and he moves much better than Michelsen. For Alex to win this I think he needs to sprint through the early sets. We’ll see. Khachanov in 4-5.

Cerundolo vs De Minaur :

De Minaur is like a video game character. Not the boss, but the one you absolutely hate playing even though he’s supposed to be easier. He doesn’t blow anyone off the court, but he punishes you for every mistake. His lack of raw power honestly makes it tougher to play him, since you waste energy trying to get back the points you give him control of as he sends flatties all over the place. Cerundolo can play with ADM, but I don’t love his attitude for a match like this. He gets visibly frustrated, and he can get impatient in rallies and go for too much. That spells disaster against Alex, and you can be sure him and his team have already committed to making this a long day on the court. ADM in 4. He’s still not back to his old automatic self, but his speed and the quick court are perfect for his flat hitting to frustrate an opponent in middling form.

Fritz vs Monfils :

This should be fun. Fritz seems to have almost made progress during the off-season, and that’s impressive. Monfils is in good form, but he’s on the tail end of a long run of tennis. At some point, he’s going to be toast, and Fritz playing well poses a difficult test. Taylor is serving well enough to have smoked Garin, and his play from the baseline is solid enough to have kept winners above unforced errors (24/20). This isn’t a wildly strong ratio, but Garin tends to be pretty consistent so it’s good enough. Monfils should be able to return well, but there isn’t pressure here for Fritz to end points in one swing. He’s healthy, he’s been winning, and he has the deeper gastank here if things get tricky. Fritz in 4.

Shelton vs Musetti :

Musetti requires 4 hours of tennis. If you can’t hit big for 4 hours, you’re not beating him. His overall game is too good. Nothing is crazy powerful, but he does everything pretty good, and he aims for a good level. Musetti isn’t hitting constant winners, but he goes for them when he has control. He isn’t serving constant aces, but he is aiming for aggressive spots. Him and Shapovalov had incredibly rallies, but Musetti was just a little more willing to stay in them. His level stayed the same, and Denis fell off. It’s the same path to victory he took against Arnaldi, and he doesn’t have to change much against Shelton.

Ben is finally looking sharp again, and a quick win against PCB was another good sign. Shelton’s serve can make him a dominant hardcourt player, and he’s hitting his forehand inside out really well this week. The question is just how long he can maintain focus for. Shelton is a good player in the spotlight, but the lapses in effort and focus are the reason he’s been losing more matches than expected, and it’s hard to reverse a trend/habit just because you need to. The best Shelton wins this every time, but it’ll require him to be present for the aforementioned 4 hours. I’ll happily witness it, but for now I think Musetti is a little bit likely to repeat his Miami 2024 win. Musetti in 5.

Sonego vs Maroszan :

I wonder if Sonego would have played so well had the hype not been so pre-packaged. I think Fonseca is going to be excellent, but I already think he’s there. The holes in his game are all about physical strength, so I’m willing to shrug off losses. That being said, I think first round he’d have had a better shot against Sonego. The win against Rublev put a target on his back, and the pricing and predictions before the match had to have given Sonego a little chip on his shoulder. It was a great performance and win from Lorenzo, and he has a somewhat winnable match here also. Maroszan and Tiafoe was a close match, but Tiafoe just seemed to need to lose the lead in order to play his best. Maroszan’s mechanics are more repeatable, and his game seem to require less output to maintain a level.

Maroszan vs Sonego feels similar to Maroszan vs Tiafoe. Sonego is a great sprinter, but Maroszan’s controlled hitting feels like it’ll be slightly more steady here. Fonseca’s losses come from lack of physical strength in long matches, and Maroszan is a bit more durable. As I typed that, I got scared because honestly Maroszan’s legs are not that strong and Sonego is playing his best to open the season, but Maroszan has a similar level of offense to Sonego and a much more developed backhand. I think he’ll be just slightly better again. Maroszan in 4-5.

Moutet vs Tien :

Learner Tien you rascal. Fonseca beats Rublev so Learner goes and defeats Medvedev? Mitchell Krueger might be in the audience for this one. Moutet was pretty unbearable against Krueger in round two, and I do sometimes wish tennis players would offer a polite “just f’in play” to people like Moutet once in a while. Moutet went from arguing with line calls, to saying “No” to foot fault calls. Idc how sure you are, the response to an automated call is not refusal to accept the call, and insisting on speaking to a manager. In a match where Krueger was likely fitter, it’s doubly shady to argue calls for long durations before important points. Moutet behaved like a little bitch in this match, and it overshadowed his tennis.

Against Tien, I think we’ll see more antics. Tien isn’t the most powerful player, but he outlasts a lot of players. Moutet is an excellent defender and can come up with passes and lobs from anywhere, so Tien will need to be very patient. Krueger took chances that were fine, but they also cost him the match as Corentin’s skill on defense came through. Tien may have a letdown after facing Medvedev in a long match, but I think he’s just a little more stable than Moutet. It’s a great opportunity for both, but I think Learner’s time on the Challenger circuit will help him remain patient in what I expect to be another long match. Tien in 5.