2025 Australian Open Round Three Day 1 Matches

Djokovic vs Machac :

The majors are a tricky thing to watch. There are 30 matches going at the same time, and it’s easy to overlook the ones that are expected to be one-sided. The rain delays on Tuesday almost helped, because a number of us got to watch Jaime Faria play some incredibly high level tennis. The outcome never felt like an issue for Djokovic, but the fact that Faria played hard anyway is a great sign. He has a good serve, and great power, but with the partial clay background he also maintains a good level of consistency. I’m a parrot about this, but the matches where you know you’re going to lose are sometimes some of the best training grounds. See where you need to improve certain shots, play within yourself enough to realize that some good patterns and depths are good against any competition, and stay composed enough that your opponent’s letdowns actually benefit you. This is what Faria did, and the result was a very competitive match and him winning a set against one of the greatest tennis players of all time.

Tennis is in a good place right now, because the household names are not unbeatable. When I see Sinner lose the first set, I still think Sinner in 3, but Schoolkate snagging that set incentivizes others to fight hard also. When everybody competes, the tour wins and the fans win. In this next, Machac will definitely compete, but the question is how much is left in the gastank. Machac has had fitness issues in the past, so while Novak looks slightly vulnerable, I wonder if Machac can go the distance. After seeing Medvedev play poorly against Samrej and then crash out the next round, it’s difficult to rule Machac out. Djokovic is in that era where his play and level will be constantly scrutinized. I expect the top players like Medvedev and Djokovic to level up when they need to, but at this stage it’s not entirely clear what level Djokovic can elevate to. Against Faria, it seemed like he didn’t need to deviate much from the plan. He was enjoying the tennis, and he never really was too far back in the scoreline. It was a great match for fans, but a somewhat comfortable match for Djokovic.

When Novak mentioned Daniil’s quote about “if he plays like this, he can have etc etc etc” I thought it was funny because these guys are used to players missing. For years players have known the top guys were not going to give them errors, so they forced the issue and made mistakes. The next generation has no reason to do that. Sure, Samrej overcooked some dropshots at strange times, but the lower ranks have gotten a bit better I believe, and the players coming through the Challenger level are more consistent from the baseline than in the past. With every passing era, the leaks in a player’s game are ironed out, and the base level of each skill required gets a little bit higher. The gaps in skill between someone ranked 150 and someone ranked 50 are not as wide as they used to be, and the gap is still narrowing. Basavareddy is basically going to stay on tour now, and he was ranked outside the top 150 a week before the Australian Open. These guys are very good, and the training grounds have become a more effective place to spend time. There was a time when the US Challenger circuit was pretty weak, but now with Kypson/Basavareddy/Krueger/Svajda/Eubanks/etc an almost constant presence, it’s solid. I’m ranting about nothing, but it is exciting for more matches on tour to have intrigue.

Machac has really good backhand stats, but I think that’s his weakness. He’s very willing to go big on his groundstrokes, and unforced errors are usually how Djokovic edges ahead. He tries to play at a controlled pace, and slowly elevates that as he works out his timing on the court. While this is going on early, he tends to play an almost table tennis style with a number of slices and controlled pace. He doesn’t give you much, and the challenge for you is to figure out whether you should try to take control of the points and risk burning yourself out swinging for the fences, or to remain in the cat and mouse game and risk slight technical deficiencies being the reason you lose a 6-4 set. While Djokovic is easing into a match, his serve keeps him more than competitive. He is the best spot server on the tour since Gilles Muller, and it’s another aspect of his game he keeps under control until he needs more. When Djokovic faces a break point, you can see a noticeable difference in the quality of the next serve.

Machac fans need not panic, because this is likely to be a close match. Their previous meetings have been split, with Machac winning on clay in 3 last year and Djokovic in 3 in Dubai 2023. This is the toughest match Novak has had so far this event by a good bit, and it’ll be an immediate test of his defense and his speed. Machac’s groundstrokes may be a bit risky, but they are composed entirely of fuzz and lightning. His last outing wasn’t terribly inspiring, but a win against Opelka always feels good. The question mark for Machac around his fitness was present before the Opelka match, but Reilly was also dealing with a slight back issue. I always expect Djokovic to step it up in big moments, but he’s not automatic anymore. As players see you as vulnerable, they tend to play better against you. It’s the reason behind Rublev, Tiafoe, and many other player’s slumps. I wouldn’t be surprised if Medvedev had an uncharacteristically rough year. I don’t see a straight set win for Djokovic here. You see him at around -430 in the odds, and this is actually the low end for Djokovic. He’d generally be -600 here against a player like Machac if he were definitely going to outlast him, and typically once you see Djokovic sub -500 he’s entering into a seriously competitive match.

The storyline is Machac playing sharper, but possibly not fit enough to go 5. Djokovic’s team will know that, and will gameplan for a long match. I really don’t know where Djokovic is worse than Machac aside from the average pace he hits with, but it’s getting late in the day for Novak. I’m going to close my eyes and say Djokovic in 5, but it’s getting harder to believe in his stamina being superior.

Lehecka vs Bonzi :

this one seems a bit easier on paper. Lehecka got a walkover against Gaston, but he didn’t really need it. He’s serving extremely well, and that gives him a good edge against Bonzi. Benjamin is playing the best tennis of his career, and a few seasons ago it seemed like he’d never get anywhere close to the tour again so this is pretty surprising. Bonzi’s best shot is his backhand, and that’s where he’ll want to remain in this match. Lehecka hits his forehand with incredible pace, and while he can be prone to errors if his opponent is moving him, I think he’ll have ample time here to run down most of Bonzi’s offerings. This is a great run for Bonzi, but he’s going to have to scramble a lot here and eliminate errors from his game. He has to basically make this a lateral sprint drill, and make it clear to Lehecka that he’s not going to miss. Even if he does, Jiri is still serving well and has a whole 3 days of rest. This is new territory for Lehecka, as far as being expected to win against a mid-tier opponent at a major, so it could take a while. As much as Lehecka will be happy with his form, Bonzi’s side will be looking at Lehecka’s past losses and thinking he’s one of the less consistently performing seeds. Lehecka in 4.

Draper vs Vukic :

Draper seems committed to proving he doesn’t have stamina issues anymore, by going 5 sets every round. I like it, but I also hate it. It’s so hard to watch the guys with injury issues; I just wind up peering at every drop of sweat as a cramp, and every long rally as career-ending. When they call the trainer, I tune out because I can’t watch the sad handshake. Somehow though, Draper made it through. So far he’s played only guys he’s supposed to beat. Vukic is another one. Navone doesn’t have the offense to beat Jack. Kokkinakis’ mobility was hampered. Vukic has no known maladies, but his overall level is generally not as high as Jack’s. Vukic has a pretty pedestrian backhand, and while his serve, forehand, and physical strength are good, I just think Draper has a safe target there. The game for a lefty is always pretty simple, but here I don’t think Vukic can protect his backhand since Draper goes down the line so well with his forehand.

Vukic had had success in the past against Korda, but I just didn’t believe it. I saw Korda with his torso heavily taped up, but I just thought he’d battle through it. My view of Korda is that he loses desire at times, so when things aren’t going well he isn’t too focused on that single match. He’s going to keep going for shots and trying to iron things out, and if the handshake comes before he figures it out, well that’s okay. Life is pretty good for Korda, so I don’t see him as that tenacious type of player who’s going to out-compete most of the tour. He’s way better at tennis, but tennis is full of guys with talent that lack consistency and heart. Everyone roars to the crowd when they’re winning, but who plays every point for the same crowd the way Nadal did?

Big opportunity for Vukic here, so he will dig in and play the match fully even if the scoreline gets. An opponent with fitness issues always offers that hope. I don’t think Draper is blowing anyone out this week, but this is basically the same equation as Kokkinakis and Vukic hits a bit smaller and serves a bit less effectively than Thanasi. Draper in 4. If he looks tired early though we could see a sad but well-earned Vukic victory though.

Borges vs Alcaraz :

Alcaraz is so ridiculously good, but it’s the fact that he genuinely enjoys playing tennis that is making him cruise in these early rounds. He wants to play. He’s like a giant puppy that can’t understand why the flowers are all crushed. They were JUST PLAYING!!!! Nishioka’s thing is being consistent, and he got zipped. It’s just wild. Borges definitely will do better, and he scored a surprisingly one-sided victory against Jordan Thompson in round two. Borges has the best offense Alcaraz has faced so far, but it’s not big enough. He’s gritty and he has enough speed to trade with Carlos, but for him to hit the ball as hard as Alcaraz he needs to swing full on every shot. I think he could steal a set but he’s likely to peak for a while and get worn down. Alcaraz in 3-4.

Mensik vs Fokina :

Foki! Foki! Chants could be heard from all around the world, or mostly by my neighbors. FAA seemed to be cruising, but things changed from there. ADF won’t warn us when, but he’s given us some of the most exciting 5 setters ever. Is another one incoming? Mensik is definitely a bit fresher than Felix was, but Felix’s serve should have have been the biggest weapon against Alejandro. I like Mensik here in a 2/3 format all day, but it feels like he’s going to be battering away for hours. ADF is now in an unexpected stage of the tournament, so he’ll play freely and in a long match his physicality can be useful. Mensik should be the bigger hitter for most of this, but I saw his forehand technique wear down a bit against Perricard recently so I wonder if ADF can’t force some errors over time. What happens after the edge is off, and neither guy is serving aces or crushing their forehands? Who’s stronger? Grown dwarf-elf-vampire-prince ADF, or 19 year Mensik, who is neither dwarf nor elf, but may be a vampire prince? I liked Mensik against Ruud because he’s more aggressive, and I like him here against ADF because he’s less aggressive. I think given his form and his improved fitness, he can get two of the three early sets and then hang on. Mensik in 4.

Carballes Baena vs Paul :

RCB’s journey might be ending, but everyone everywhere should be taking a small lesson from him. He is outworking players at every level who would likely be considered better than him at tennis. He doesn’t have the flashiest game, but a commitment to hitting the ball into the big rectangle goes a long way. I don’t think he can out-rally Tommy Paul, so Paul’s ability to serve big becomes a big factor. Paul just had a tough baseline test against Kei “Don’t Call Me Squishikori in your articles anymore” Nishikori, so he’ll be primed for this matchup. I don’t see a huge stamina concern for Paul either. Paul in 3-4.

Humbert vs Fils :

This should be really good. If it were raining, I’d like Humbert. Maybe I still do? This one is tough because of Arthur’s ceiling. If Fils maxes out his ability, and feels comfortable competing, I think he’s a top ten player. A good chunk of the time though, Fils is making unforced errors. They aren’t the type that can be shaken off either. He’ll have the volley won, go down the line, and send it long or into the net. It makes you unsure over time, and this tends to lead to acceleration issues. Easing off to guide the shot in finds the net. Going super fast to brush enough spin onto the ball to ensure it stays in makes you flick it long because you flinch at the last second when you think about missing. These are issues.

Humbert has his own troubles, and was never the most physically gifted player, but he’s more settled into what his final game looks like. He serves really well and with time he’s relatively unplayable. I think this will be a really close match, and not to stereotype but French players tend to always trade sets with each other. All of the French federation guys just seem to have completely unique styles and games, and their offenses are generally excellent so it’s hard for them to really shut each other out. Here I think Humbert’s offense is slightly more repeatable, so Fils will really have to drag him into deep waters physically to win. I don’t really see that happening because Humbert had such a quick round two against Habib, so I expect Humbert to win here. Humbert in 4-5.

Fearnley vs Zverev :

Fearnley almost got in trouble against Cazaux. I felt Cazaux would gas out, but a rain delay after the first set gave him a nice reset. It didn’t end up mattering, and Fearnley gets a nice reward here. A third round against a guy everyone wants you to beat is always good, and while I don’t think Fearnley is going to win, he’s steady enough to do well if Zverev implodes. The long format just gives Zverev so many more chances. In a single set, nerves can impact Zverev’s game and his ego has prevented him from developing critical thinking skills, so he reverts to pushing and hoping. In a 3/5 format, this is honestly okay. He’s better than his opponents, so playing a steady safe level is actually a decent plan. He tends to play close first sets, and then pull away steadily. I’d expect that here. Fearnley can win a set, but I don’t think he’s going to play a physical enough game to beat Zverev. Zverev in 4.

Women’s Singles :

Sabalenka vs Tauson :

Sabalenka has leveled up, so this should be an excellent contest where Tauson is just about a game worse per set. The difference for me is in speed. They both crush the ball, the both serve as well as anyone on tour, but Sabalenka is able to defend a bit better to the wings. Tauson has 7 wins in a row, and Sabalenka has 9. 9 is better than 7 obv. Sabalenka in 2-3. This is a really exciting contest, but what I saw from Sabalenka in the Kudermetova final in Brisbane is that she doesn’t need to change her game too much in tough moments. The weight of shot that she’s bringing is enough to wear her opponents down, so them thriving for a brief period isn’t the hugest concern because it means they’re emptying their gastank. I don’t think Aryna is invulnerable, but I think it will require a ton of stamina to beat her and that’s usually Tauson’s downfall.

Frech vs Andreeva :

Andreeva came as close as you can to crashing out of this event. Uchijima was serving for the match, and the first point of the game saw her smoke a forehand inside-out for a clean winner. She played a tremendous match and had a great tournament, and it shouldn’t be overlooked how important a second round finish is for Uchijima in her first full year on tour. The lack of a serve makes it really tough to beat Andreeva. She can land a few shots in the net at times and give up a service game, but she tends to avoid errors and risks once she’s down in the scoreline. Mirra is a really good baseliner, who just barely lacks the power to end rallies. She gained a little muscle this year, and that’s kinda the plan I think. It’s hard to win majors without big weapons, so stamina and mental strength are important for her. This is a winnable match, but it could take a while. Frech and Blinkova traded 6-0 sets in round two, which is somehow unsettling but standard. Blinkova just gassed out and Frech is really locked in right now. I don’t think she can score on Andreeva easily enough to win, and I don’t see Mirra getting tired, but three sets with Uchijima means Frech should have equal chances. I’m nervous about this one, because I think Andreeva has more ways to score, but is facing a wall on the other end who has a difficult but simpler task. Andreeva in 3.

Shnaider vs Vekic :

Nice wins for both players in round two. Shnaider probably displayed the higher level in the tournament so far, but Vekic’s offense means her opponent often doesn’t matter. Neither of them really thrive on defense, so this could contain some overtime sets. Vekic’s flat hitting is really effective on these courts, but I think Shnaider is able to vary her swings on defense a bit better. She’ll be rushed by Vekic’s power, and Donna’s dropshots are a great followup to her strong serve, but Shnaider is a bit more versatile, and her own power is likely to have Vekic reacting late anytime she leaves the ball short. Shnaider in 2. I’ll feel silly when they go three, but I just think Shnaider operates at a higher level and Tomljanovic was excellent prep for dealing with a big hitter.

Pavlyuchenkova vs Siegemund :

Siegemund won maybe the best match of her career last round. She fought hard from 0-0, and Zheng froze in the moment. The blueprint is one I think many players will try to copy, but it took a lot of heart to make it happen. Laura fell down after the match, and people discussed it online. For me, I do not love the fall down. It’s a bit performative, it’s a bit overdone, and it’s awkwardly placed in between the handshake and the real celebration. Celebrating raucously or tapping your head or pounding your chest on the way to the handshake is also awkward. The first move after a win should be to jog to the net (if you have the energy), shake hands, thank the ref, then the celebration can ensue. The problem is, at that point, the fall to the floor seems even faker. It’s not a “these ppl suck” or “you’re too serious” issue, nor can we assume if they’re genuinely shocked they won, nor can we assume their opponents even care. It’s just a logistical thing that tennis has. You win and you’re supposed to shake hands, but you’re far away and you’re excited RIGHT NOW.

I don’t think it’s a big deal either way. If my opponent falls to the floor after beating me, I’m walking around the net and offering them the handshake where they are, or helping them up and hugging them for a job well done. Pretending to be happy for your opponent is the gateway to realizing you really can be. I lost a lot of finals before I realized that sometimes, I’m the perfect villain in somebody else’s story. Since many of us are spiders weaving everyone around us to their past, the Siegemund hate makes sense. She’s done a lot of grimy things on the court in order to gain an edge, and that is prevalent in tennis but not always transparent. She’s become a villain. Zheng has too, in a sense. I can’t even remember whose soul was demanded as tribute when they first made comments about Zheng after a loss, but the public sentiment has shifted since then to decide that she is cold. When you’re under scrutiny, your actions are all scrutinized.

For now, Siegemund is into the third round and has a decent chance against Pavlyuchenkova. They’re both solid baseliners, and Pavs is a little bit past her prime so Siegemund will want to try to move and outlast her. I don’t think Pavs has the firepower that Zheng has, but I do think she’s a little bit shiftier about navigating a match. She’s not very reactive on court, and she doesn’t waste energy. Somehow, their only meeting was in 2016, and Siegemund won. Has Pavlyuchenkova’s entire career been a revenge tour building to this moment? I didn’t see a ton of either match, but I know that Potapova made Pavs play a ton of tennis, and I think her weight of shot will be enough to give her a slight edge in this. There is a trend in tennis that is somewhat results-oriented of players pulling a huge upset then crashing out, and that’s what I expect here. Pavlyuchenkova will be very happy to get an easier match, and Siegemund’s fall to the ground did seem genuine so there may be a big emotional letoff here. Pavlyuchenkova in 3.

Gauff vs Fernandez :

I owe Bucsa an apology. She played excellent in round two, and served well also. Fernandez just managed to move her enough to win, but Bucsa is a player who could really play at a high level if she gets a little bit stronger. Physicality is a tough thing to develop with the tour’s busy schedule, but this next match should showcase it. Gauff is playing solid, and hasn’t dropped a set yet. Fernandez can be a wall, and seems to be settling into a good level after a decent 2024. Gauff just beat Fernandez 3,2 at the United Cup, and while I deem that more of an exhibition event for analysis purposes, that’s a pretty significant scoreline. Gauff had a lapse in play during the second set against Burrage, and that’s when Fernandez hit a good patch against Bucsa, so that’s where I’d tune into this one. I think Gauff and Fernandez have similar approaches but wildly different games, and I think Gauff’s speed and power make it really hard for Leylah to score on her. Gauff in 2.

Osaka vs Bencic :

Bencic and Lamens played an unreal level at the end of the second set, which is similar to how Bencic and Ostapenko’s match went. Bencic is really consistent right now, and her ability to reflect power is the exact thing needed against Osaka. Naomi seemed in questionable health coming into this event, but seems fine so far. Honestly, Osaka’s draw thus far has been ridiculous. Garcia, then Muchova, now Bencic? Don’t worry, if she wins she can play Gauff.

I like Osaka’s win against Muchova as a higher quality than Bencic,but Belinda’s consistency may let her outlast Osaka. Naomi’s serve and power still let her basically beat anyone. She can hit her backhand down the line really well when she’s inside the baseline, so Muchova’s defensive slices were nice, but they gave away control. Bencic tends to maintain depth on her groundstrokes even on defense, so I think Osaka will have some forced errors here. Probably one of the best matches of the day here, but I think Osaka will run out of gas. Bencic in 3.

Badosa vs Kostyuk :

There are some matches in every draw that I want to watch more than predict, and this is one of them. Badosa hits the ball really solid, and defends admirably. Kostyuk crushes the ball, and tends to build her level as the match progresses. This should go to Badosa but it’s likely to include a number of breaks. What I’ve seen from the past season is Badosa improving very gradually. It’s easy to worry about her back issues and inconsistency, but it’s also good to remember the extremely high level she exhibited when she first got on tour. Badosa has won most of their previous meetings, but the most recent one went to Kostyuk (a forfeit on grass). I think Kostyuk can win a set, but maybe not the match. Badosa is defending well and Kostyuk has lost to the good defenders she’s faced so far this year. Badosa in 3.

Danilovic vs Pegula :

I knew Danilovic could score on Samsonova, but I didn’t think she’d actually win. Olga is through in dominant fashion, and the Zheng and Samsonova results have shifted this draw wildly. Pegula’s speed and defense should let her get past Danilovic, but it won’t be easy. Having big power and a good serve is so important in the WTA, and Danilovic has that. She tends to play her best at the majors also, so Pegula’s team will be stressing to her the importance of a fast start. Pegula being such a flat hitter might pay dividends here, as Danilovic plays better with time. Jessica was pretty solid in round two, so she should win here also. Pegula in 2-3. I think she can win in straights but Danilovic’s offense really can’t be overlooked once she’s won a match or two, and Pegula has only really faced defensive players thus far.