2025 Australian Open Quarterfinals Day 1

Djokovic vs Alcaraz :

This is going to be one of the best matches between these two that has ever been seen. Djokovic has been as good this week as he has been in about a year. He’s made his last two opponents look like they had no chance to win the matches, and this was established very early. Jiri Lehecka came in serving well and hitting the ball very hard, and only midway through the first set he began unraveling. Errors on the backhand were a constant theme, and Djokovic just entices his opponents to bail out of rallies with offensive attempts that in hindsight they’d never want to go for. Lehecka’s backhand just didn’t hold up here, and it’s something for him to work on in these high-profile clashes because once you have a glaring weakness that’s the place you can expect to be attacked.

While Djokovic was sprinting ahead, Lehecka did find his best serving and force a tiebreaker, but Novak isn’t likely to fall apart up two sets, and he was able to close out. Djokovic should be fresh for this match against Alcaraz, which is great for fans. Alcaraz will be fresh also, as he hasn’t been challenged yet this week, and got a quick walkover against Draper. Jack entered the match a bit fatigued, and he just wasn’t able to continue. It’s possible to outduel Alcaraz from the baseline. He is a tremendous defender and tends to make the extra get where others won’t, but in more neutral rallies he still makes errors. Everything about his game is great, but he’s not automatic off either wing if his opponent is hitting with pace and depth. I do think Djokovic has a small edge here in neutral rallies. Alcaraz hits harder, but his game is more about big swings and agility than it is about being a wall.

In terms of creating opportunities, I think this will be pretty even. Djokovic serves better than Alcaraz, but this won’t be a match where both players are getting aced. The best shift I enjoyed about the big 3 matchups was how diminished the advantage was of serving. In so many lower tier matches, the player up a break gets the set. With top players, anyone can break at any time, and the constant duece games coupled with the fact that losing serve isn’t a match-ending disaster makes the entire match fun to watch. Coming into this event, I was looking for cracks in Djokovic’s armor. I’m grateful to still have him on tour, but I only felt he looked fully committed to going the distance in the Olympic run. There were matches last season where he seemed like he’d adjusted his plans to try to win quickly, and I think as you make these shifts you become a dangerous floater rather than a perennial obstacle. Not a lot has really changed about Djokovic’s game here, but I think Alcaraz is finally the one who’s able to play his best tennis for longer periods, and I think Djokovic knows that.

It feels crazy to write sentences doubting Djokovic. He’s just completely dismissed two guys who I thought would win a set against him, but I have expectations for Alcaraz over the next few seasons that I think are going to come to fruition. I think the mental game is huge at the top, and Alcaraz’s joy and passion for tennis give him a big boost. The better you play, the more he engages. He’s playing regular tour guys and looking absolutely bored here, and I think this isn’t a “wow I have to play Djokovic” situation as much as a “yes I get a good match” spot. Alcaraz is a bit faster, a bit stronger, and he hasn’t really had his ceiling displayed yet this event. It’s tricky to declare someone’s improvement during an offseason, but there hasn’t been a period yet on tour where Alcaraz and his team were not working and improving his odds.

Once it becomes a “you can’t win the long way” equation with Alcaraz, I do feel his defense (the extra gets and squash returns and lobs) are going to start to pay dividends more often. He’s already found a way to win on almost every surface before his game was optimal on them, and that’s huge because he gets to play without pressure in big moments. If he loses this match, it’s okay. It isn’t his one chance, and it doesn’t tarnish his record. The same could be said for Djokovic, which is why I think this will be so close and so excellent. Novak winning the Olympics notched off the only event he’d really want to add to an already complete record. He leads the league in everything basically, and adding anything is a bonus. This is his best tournament, he’s fresh, he’s playing well, he has Murray in his corner providing an additional bit of focus, and there’s zero pressure and unlimited motivation available to him.

Alcaraz is who I suspect will take over the tour and I expect it to last at least a few seasons due to his physical dominance, but if you look at 2024 he has a lot of losses on fast hard-courts that Djokovic would never take. He lost to Zverev, Ruud, Humbert, Machac, and Van De Zandschulp. Everyone drops matches, but fast hardcourt is a surface that still sees him making timing errors off both wings, so facing a guy like Djokovic is tricky. Djokovic’s approach to a match is usually to play at a pre-determined pace early, and look to get into a rhythm. He’s a bit like Kasatkina (don’t kill me) in that he tends to lock into a level, and then stay there. Obviously his tennis is difference than Darya’s, but it’s a similar commitment to not really overpressing once he finds a good level. Djokovic is not going to miss, he’s going to move the ball well, and it’s almost a gambit that his opponent’s hot streaks won’t last. Medvedev does something similar, but his defensive prowess is starting to fade a bit. There are extra gears in Djokovic’s game, but the only time you’ll really see him make a big shift in tactics or effort is on break points, where he tends to serve a bit bigger.

Keys for Alcaraz are to minimize errors off rally balls. Djokovic can make mistakes when facing heavy hitting, and the visible difference in hitting between the two may wear on him if Alcaraz isn’t giving him errors. Djokovic is incredibly efficient at net, so Alcaraz will have to be extremely cautious with the dropshots (one or two a set just when the play has been forgotten), or utilize it constantly if he thinks he can wear Djokovic down. Since it’s a night match, I don’t think either of them hit the wall completely, but it will still be hot and that favors Alcaraz a bit.

Zverev looked good early in the event, but he really fell apart mid-match against Humbert last round. Sinner has beaten both these guys on hard-court, but he looks less than 100% physically after having some illness issues last round. That makes this a potential finals, and with Tommy Paul actually leading the h2h against Zverev they might end up seeing a very fortuitous path from here. This is a big moment, and there’s a lot to suggest both of these guys are going to play well. Im excited for it.

As far as the results, I think Alcaraz gets the win here, but it isn’t assured, and it could never be quick. Djokovic serves too well and Alcaraz often takes time to get the timing down on returns. Alcaraz is also likely to face a great deal of pressure in the middle sections of the match where Djokovic returns his best, and while Djokovic doesn’t hit quite as big with a full swing as Alcaraz, he is moving the ball really well on his cross-court forehand this week. Giving Djokovic time or control are going to be a problem, and since he’s pretty fresh Carlos will have to do a lot of running. I think Alcaraz will be in the match long enough that he’ll find his best tennis, and his best tennis is him taking full rips on forehands. Early on I think Djokovic’s depth or shot will keep Alcaraz from really finding winners, but as it gets to the 3rd/4th set Alcaraz will start to get a little bit more time from the baseline and once he has this he’s going to wear Novak down. We saw a little in the Kasatkina Navarro match how the bigger hitter can really wear down the opponent, and what really hurt Kasatkina there was that Navarro couldn’t hit past her with one swing. It was a constant barrage and Kasatakina was forced to make gets which really took it out of her. So here, I think Alcaraz not being able to hit clean winners against Djokovic may leave Novak a bit winded in the late stages. Alcaraz in 5.

Paul vs Zverev :

There is a lot of discussion on Tennis Channel of who the best American is, but Tommy Paul has been one of the most consistent performers in the majors for what feels like forever. He’s always in the second week, and the constant battles against the top opponents make him a little better every season. Here has a really interesting chance, but there are factors in both directions for the Tommy Paul fans. Tommy has beaten Zverev in both their previous meetings, so he’ll be comfortable in the matchup. One was in 2020 in Acapulco though. You can imagine the commitment level a young Zverev is bringing into that event, and he was much worse at the time. The next one was at Indian Wells in 2022. This one was a three set win and a good data point, but the slower conditions there really impact the big servers, and again Zverev only recently started to get himself together on the tennis court. In 2022 we were still talking about double faults, and it’s worth noting Paul was down 4-2 in the final set there and got the break back because of a Zverev double fault.

Thus far in the event Zverev has won fairly easily, but the Tommy Paul bright point came just last round. Zverev has absolutely played a perfect first set of tennis against Humbert, and then completely collapsed. In the first he was dominant. He hit every good shot once, and barely missed. He used dropshots, he had full commitment to technique, and no superficial worries about how he looked. Then he completely imploded, and played a terrible second set where he lost by multiple breaks. Sure, he fixed things and won, but Tommy Paul is a lot more durable on defense than Humbert and has shown in the past that he can score on Zverev. Zverev is really solid, but he tends to show you where he’s going at times and hits down the middle a little too often. This is where Tommy generally hurts him, because he doesn’t really show you where he’s going. I think since Paul had basically a walkover, this should be a close match. Zverev has hit a new level with his serving and he played really well here last year, so he should finally get his first win, but when we start talking about what Zverev “should” do my head starts to tilt sideways like a puzzled dog.

“I used to beat you” is a real phenomenon on tour as evidenced by Cazaux’s magical victories in the past, and Tommy has gotten better each year, but I think he was thriving against Zverev in an era when everyone was. If TP was playing Humbert, I’d have him winning in 4-5. Zverev kinda dominated Humbert outside of the second set. I don’t really know if Zverev’s serve is playable right now, and Tommy hit a lot of aggressive returns in their previous meetings off of Zverev kick serves that had no pace. This should be another very close match, but I think Zverev will be just a tiny bit better. Zverev in 5. Even while picking him I still think that Tommy matches up well because he has a solid backhand and is fast enough to make Zverev hit the extra shot. It’s a mental test for Zverev and a physical test of his mechanics.

Gauff vs Badosa :

Curious Gauff prices these days. She was a heavy favorite to beat Bencic, and it wasn’t really smooth sailing. Gauff is better than a lot of these players, but there are double fault issues and unforced error issues. 9 doubles, and 45 unforced to be exact. It’s almost like Gauff’s B game can beat anyone in a long match, but she’s aiming for an A game that isn’t quite consistent yet. Errors are a problem against Badosa, and their last meeting in Beijing went to 3. It feels like the story with Gauff is that everyone can hang early, but as the match progresses her athleticism and lateral defending just make things rough. If she gets a full swing she can hit clean sliding winners right past you, and her serve is unreliable for a top 10 player, but is also very powerful. This is often overlooked in tennis; players can be doing something sub-optimally, but the person on the court still has to deal with a very powerful delivery and a difficult offense. “Put one more ball back and they’ll miss!” is a nice plan but putting the ball back takes a lot.

Badosa is having a great tournament, and her playing healthy is welcome. This is another Tommy Paul Zverev situation where Badosa actually has done decent in the h2h. It’s 3-3 right now and 2-2 on hardcourt. Badosa almost feels more steady in this matchup, but I can imagine her serving with the lead and having a very tough time hanging on. Gauff’s errors make her scorelines close, but there is a second gear where she just locks down on defense and her hitting is too strong for most. I think physically, Badosa will wear down first, but this should be close. Gauff in 3.

Sabalenka vs Pavlyuchenkova :

I love all these matches for tv, but they all have a h2h theme to them that’s tricky. Pavlychenkova won their most recent meeting (2021 RG) their only previous hardcourt meeting (Toronot 2019), and she’s playing well. In the last round she wasn’t broken once, winning a 7-5, 6-0 clash against Vekic. I know that Sabalenka is amazing, and difficult to beat, but the only players she’s had trouble with recently have been big hitters. Tauson gave her some issues, Kudermetova did while she was crushing the ball in the first set, and honestly it makes sense that Pavlyuchekova could be competitive here in at least one set. Pavs has a ton of experience and hits the ball huge. She’s really skillful, and doesn’t have much pressure on her here, so I really only expect her defense to be the deciding factor.

Sabalenka roasted Andreeva, but the issue in that matchup is just weight of shot. Andreeva’s contact suffers because Sabalenka is always getting the bigger swing, and Mirra’s serving isn’t big enough to keep her from having to retreat off the first shot. We all know how to guide the ball back off a drive, but how many of those can we hit cleanly before Sabalenka goes “nyyaaaahhhh” and sends a shot we miss. I guess these are the matches that set up the big clashes. Pavlyuchenkova is playing well on offense, but her movement is not good enough to defend against Sabalenka. It’ll be a big hitting contest but I’m not sure if Pavs can really get into Sabalenka’s service games, and the old h2h data is a bit too far in the past, when Sabalenka had double fault issues and just wasn’t as physically fit as she is now. If Aryna is hitting the court, she’s a favorite against anyone in these conditions. Sabalenka in 2.