2025 Australian Open Men's & Women's Round Two - Sort Of

Giron vs Etcheverry :

Giron and Etcheverry are both playing well, so this should be close. Giron prefers this surface and his speed will make it tough for Etcheverry to hit through him. Giron’s forehand and serve are in good form right now. Giron’s backhand is actually not doing so bad this season, but it is always the target for his opponents. Once you find Giron’s backhand, he can’t escape. He doesn’t hit hard enough to really score, so Etcheverry’s job here is simple.

Etcheverry took advantage of Cobolli’s mini slump, and he does fare well in this long format. As a guy who tends to maintain a solid level rather than peaks of play, he can really drag you down over the course of a long match. I think him and Giron will be very close because both will have a difficult time scoring. For me, Etcheverry hits a bit harder off both wings in neutral rallies so I think he’ll get the benefit of more errors and lucky bounces. Etcheverry in 5.

Hurkacz vs Kecmanovic :

Hurkacz looked solid in round one, but it appears Griekspoor is not really himself yet this season. Kecmanovic will be a tougher test. Although Miomir took 5 sets to get past Lajovic, he’s turned in some good performances this past week, including a close two set loss to Korda and a win against Bonzi. Their previous meeting went to 3 and it’s likely that Kecmanovic’s style yields him a set this time. Hurkacz serving well is going to beat most players in a long-form shootout, but Kecmanovic will make him engage in a number of long baseline rallies and eventually this can wear someone down. I’m not saying anything magical here; Hurkacz has long struggled with his length in baseline rallies, and his serve and skill bail him out even if he loses some sets. I like him to continue the run here. Hurkacz in 4.

Berrettini vs Rune :

These two met twice last year, and Rune was able to outlast Berrettini on both occasions in three sets. I’ve spoken about how Rune wavers between two less than ideal modes, and I think sometimes players who make the choice for him can help. Berrettini’s aggressive serving and shotmaking force Rune to defend, and he’s not bad at it. It’s a huge leak to hang behind the baseline when you’re in a neutral rally, but against Berrettini it’s just where you wind up, and putting the extra ball back pays dividends if you can land it on the backhand side of the court. The backhand is always the place where Matteo loses against the top tier of the tour (which Rune is somehow in). It’s too safe a target for them, and almost every top 20 player has an incredibly solid backhand.

Berrettini making improvements lately and Rune going 5 with Zhang make the upset possible here. Norrie is out of form but he does still play good defense, and Berrettini was able to hit through him. I’d need to see a higher level from Rune than he showed in round one, and while stylistically it seems that Rune can wear Berrettini down, he has had the good fortune to play him during Matteo’s worst period on tour. Berrettini in 4. I think he needs to lock this up quickly but this is his best chance so far to beat Rune.

Diallo vs Khachanov :

Diallo was in big trouble against Nardi but the 3/5 format seems to really bring out the best in him. He hits the ball a ton and is very aggressive. In a short match, that can crash you out in early rounds. In a major, you have time. The bigger hitters have been getting rewarded so far this week, and that makes this match interesting.

Khachanov had a pretty middling 2024 by his standards, and he lost to a bunch of opponents (Giron, Bu, Hong) that you wouldn’t really expect him to. So how long is he there for the taking? For a guy who had a slump, he also won a ton of matches, and he beat Diallo in both their meetings. The second one went to 3, and I think you can expect Diallo to win a set here also. The knock on Khachanov is not being aggressive enough against the top tier, but he’s been a solid gatekeeper for a long time. The amount of defense he plays and the solid ballstriking he brings can make opponents feel like they need to create, and Diallo can create, but should he? I don’t know if he can wear Khachanov down, but his best tennis can definitely hang even. This second round has a lot of interesting matches, and this one will probably fly under the radar but it should be very good. I like Khachanov’s overall level and physical strength to come through here. Khachanov in 4-5.

Cerundolo vs Diaz Acosta :

Diaz Acosta just survived an amazing battle against Bergs, so it’ll be interesting to see how he turns around here. He’s a claycourter so you’d expect his fitness to be top tier, but now he has to try to outlast a guy who can decide to be good. It’s unfair to blame Cerundolo’s losses on effort/focus, but that’s what I do. When he digs in, he’s a top 20 player. When he goes for instant winners and gestures at misses like they’re drivers disobeying traffic rules, he loses to anyone. I really thought he might crash out against Bublik, but Bublik decided to exit first. He lost a lopsided tiebreak, and it was good night from there. Diaz Acosta will perform significantly better in terms of effort, but I’m not sure if he can outlast Cerundolo. Bergs is a good win, but he tends not to really have much offensive firepower. He has a strong forehand, but it’s a lot of hard work and charging the net and mental pressure. Cerundolo with time can take three swings and end the point. Since Cerundolo hits his backhand pretty flat and low over the net, Diaz can target that wing and earn some errors. It’s the typical lefty format, and honestly Cerundolo hasn’t really done much yet this season to prove he’s in it for the long haul. Tentatively, Cerundolo in 4.

Boyer vs De Minaur :

Boyer has the power to get himself on tour, and qualifying and winning a first round is a great step towards that. This next one is a test of his mental fortitude. It is likely that he loses to De Minaur, and it is likely that the crowd and the defense of ADM will frustrate him. I’d like to see Boyer avoid rage, and just put his head down and compete here. I always point to De Minaur’s backhand as a target, but it really has been a long time since he’s taken an unexpected loss. His return from injury last season was an uphill battle, but he seems almost beyond that now. De Minaur in 3.

Fritz vs Garin :

This is a good contest to see who can make the exact same expression more often. Fritz and Garin both have a remarkable way of staring off in the distance while they crush people. Fritz is finally good, and Brooksby wasn’t a tough test at this stage in his comeback but it’s still good to see Taylor get through in straights. Garin gave Coric the business, and this match should be good. I don’t see a real threat to Fritz here because these are better conditions for him, but Garin hits hard, defends well, and he has a decent service motion. This is the type of match where I think Fritz will play much better once he gets a bit clear of Garin on the scoreboard, and the safe patterns he tends to play in early will make this look close. Honestly, as good as Fritz gets, I still see effort being a good formula against him, and Garin has been locked in since the opening round of this event. Fritz’s serve will let him escape here, but I think it’ll be a long day and Taylor will have a hard time dominating baseline rallies. Fritz in 4.

Altmaier vs Monfils :

This is a rematch of Vienna 2023 where Monfils won 6-4, 6-4. I don’t think a lot has changed about either of their games, and both are through after heroic 5 set wins. Monfils beating Perricard is a much tougher match then Altmaier, but Daniel is a lot more dangerous from the baseline. Monfils’ height makes him a tough returner, and his commitment to chipping returns lets get a lot more in play. Eventually, he wore down Perricard. It was one of the best matches of the first round, but it showcased how hard it is to hit through Monfils. Altmeir will likely keep this match close throughout, but even with the lead I don’t think he’s more than 50/50 to close out a set.

Monfils is running on 6 wins in a row, so fatigue will become a concern at some point. Altmaier tends to play to the level of his opponent, but idk this feels almost safe for Monfils. Monfils in 4.

Carreño Busta vs Shelton :

The return of PCB is very welcome to me. Majchrzak had won both their previous meetings, but Pablo was too solid throughout. I think his consistency and discipline will prove useful against Shelton, but he might be too late to profit off the Shelton slump. Ben lost the plot a little last season, and his aggressive/somewhat careless play in early sets started to cost him matches. It set up some buzz that Nakashima might trouble him, but Shelton woke up in round one. Nakashima led the first set, but once Shelton found his way to a tiebreaker he started to really engage and make shots. His forehand remained a problem for the rest of the match, and when Ben is enjoying tennis he really opens up on serve. The majors have seen him do his best work, so this is very uphill for Pablo.

I think PCB can win a set or two if Shelton starts slow, but the problem in Pablo’s game traditionally has been winding up at duece in his own service games too often. This doesn’t work against a strong server and solid front-runner like Shelton, so PCB will want to get off to a quick start. It isn’t so wild for Shelton to win this, but I think it’ll be a good test of his attention span. Shelton in 4.

Shapovalov vs Musetti :

Can Shapo play the volume of tennis it takes to beat Musetti? Arnaldi couldn’t. Shapovalov has way bigger weapons, but Arnaldi is much more consistent. Musetti is there for the taking for anyone who can play solid offense on hardcourt. He’s really good, but he doesn’t do any one thing that’s going to blow you off the court. Musetti is just willing to play tennis with you forever, and when you ease off he has a very capable offense. This is a match where I expect Shapovalov to struggle with success. He’ll have control of a lot of rallies and opportunities to break, but I think realistically the amount of time it will take to grind through Musetti will see his issues rise up. Impatience, and service motion glitches that can result in untimely doubles. He played well against RBA so it’s not out of the question, but I think Musetti outlasts him in 5.

Fonseca vs Sonego :

If you had any questions about Fonseca, I think they’re answered. He beat Rublev the entire match. When stamina issues were raised, and Rublev went up a break in the third, he broke back. When Fonseca faced a difficult point, he still hit winners. He still went for his shots. There is a big difference between being aggressive and being good. Fonseca’s shots aren’t low percentage because he has the skill and timing to hit them. It’s lovely tennis, and as he continues to add muscle he’ll become a really fun player to watch. The kid has a great attitude and is fun to watch, and now he has a very winnable match to go to the third round.

Sonego was a bit too sharp for Wawrinka. Stan chips a lot of returns, and his lateral movement isn’t good enough anymore to defend with his opponent inside the baseline. It’s a good tactic in pressure moments, but it gives up too much control at times. Sonego’s backhand won’t hold up in this next match. The serve and forehand combo is beautiful and he can compete at a very high level at times, but Fonseca is bringing a consistent level of tennis and he’s an adept returner. Fonseca in 3-4.

Moutet vs Krueger :

This feels scarily close to an upset. Moutet has just beaten Popyrin, but he led that h2h so stylistically there were issues. Popyrin’s backhand is not as solid as Krueger’s. Mitchell straight setted Hijikata, which is very normal and very odd. Hijikata was playing well, so it’s a good sign for Krueger. His game is very simple. He hits the ball hard and hustles. Moutet plays a lot of dropshots and slices and tries to frustrate his opponents, but I’m not sure how that will work against Krueger. It just feels to me like Krueger’s style and demeanor are the exact thing that will bother Moutet. He’s willing to put in the work, and he doesn’t really go for anything wild so Moutet will have to do a lot of creating. This can lead to impatience, and the “I’m better than this guy” concept can really be difficult to manage when your opponent doesn’t give you anything to feed off. I’ll probably eat it on this one, but I’m hungry. Krueger in 5. Moutet not having a two-hander to use here means a lot of running and I think one player is more likely to unravel mentally and physically in a long match.

Tien vs Medvedev :

Kasidit Samrej took a break from his world tour to pop in and play a little tennis with the boys. Lovely of him, and fans were treated to a great performance. A big theme in this match was Samrej looking like he was going to miss, only to have his shots land right on the lines. He really plays a measured type of tennis and Medvedev winning felt likely throughout but not any sort of a lock. Daniil was looking to outlast Samrej here, and it got tricky. Playing passive and looking for errors is fine, but Samrej wasn’t going to implode, and it was a great result for him in his first major. He did had some nerves closing out the third set, and went for some untimely dropshots,but this was a match he handled well.

If Medvedev is donating control in the next round, he could lose. Tien went 5 with Carabelli which I’m sure stressed out his backers to no end, but Learner’s game isn’t huge. He serves well for his height, and he has good shots, but he’s not going to blast anyone off the court. Most of his wins on tour have been via outlasting players from the baseline. It’s for that reason that I think Medvedev needs to be a bit more proactive here. If he lets Tien work the point, Daniil will have a long day, and this section of the draw is so open for him up until he meets Fonseca. He needs to get through fresh for that match, as it will be a really tough test. It’s so easy to think players will play poorly round after round, but Medvedev can turn it around and win this. Tien is good, but Medvedev has a much bigger serve. The scheduling for this may matter, as Medvedev looked to be getting cooked a bit in the sun.

Women’s Singles :

Keys vs Ruse :

Madison Keys just rolls people when she’s in form. It’s a testament to the depth on tour that she doesn’t have multiple majors. Here she has a tricky matchup against a surging youngster, but it feels like Keys’ offense is big enough that her opponent often doesn’t matter. Ruse is finally living up to the hype that she entered the tour with a few seasons ago, and a straight sets win after qualifying will allow her to play freely here. She’s not really expected to win, but Keys has injury issues in her past, so it’s worth it to fight hard here. For me, Keys tends to lose a close match and then mentally check out of the smaller events for a while. I don’t really see her losing form within an event, so I think she should win here. Keys in 2.