2025 Australian Open 4th Round Day 2

Sinner vs Rune :

Jannik Sinner is cruising through this draw and the 1 seed seems to carry with it matchups that are tough on paper but stylistically simple. In round 3 he managed to get past Giron without much trouble. Marcos was playing his best but beating a complete player with just a forehand is not really possible at the top levels. Opelka has the best serve in the entire game and even his win against Djokovic was a wild surprise and generally only possible in the 2/3 format. Here, Sinner will have another gift. Holger Rune can be really good. He has a great base because the mechanics of his swings are so repeatable, and he’s hovered around the top of the game even while slumping. Rune initially won their meetings on hard and clay (2022 Sofya and 2023 Monte Carl) but the next two meetings were won by Sinner.

In this matchup, the big factor for me will be their path through the draw. All of their matches have gone to a deciding set, and Sinner is prone to dropping an early set, but Rune has just played five sets with Kecmanovic that saw him looking extremely tired and dealing with cramps at times. It’s possible to recover in a day of rest, but Sinner is coming into this as fresh as you can be, so he has two routes to victory. The first, he’s simply better on offense than Rune. The second, if the match is close he can just minimize errors, extend rallies, and know that Rune’s game is going to fall off first. There might be “just one more set” or “a few more games” left when you hit a wall, but when your opponent has made it clear they’re not going to bail out of rallies, the volume of work and your odds of winning go down significantly.

Rune does start to go huge when he’s in big moments or down in the scoreline, but I don’t see that as a possible way to beat Sinner right now. He’s playing too stable, and if Rune’s game was big enough to take the racquet out of your hands for 3 hours I think we’d already have seen it on a big stage. Rune is now in that Tsitsipas/De Minaur territory where he can hang with the top tier, but doesn’t really match up well enough in all the areas of the game to get across the finish line. This should excellent, 40% spicy, and see Sinner through in about 4 sets.

Michelsen vs De Minaur :

This is an interesting one because I’ve been fooled before, and it’s allllll about me. Michelsen was one of the best prospects on the US Challenger tour for a brief period, and that period was only brief because he got himself on tour so quickly. He’s had the usual breakout success that guys like Opelka/Donaldson/Brooksby/Tiafoe and the other powerful Americans have had, but has also tossed in the same rough losses. For me, Michelsen is a tremendous player who has a clear cap on his mobility. His height gives him a great ability to serve and his groundstrokes are solid, but it’s visible that the pace of baseline rallies at tour level requires him to max out his focus and movement. This means minor lapses cause errors, and someone like De Minaur has made his entire game about exposing this stuff. For me, Michelsen can never beat De Minaur in a long match.

Now for the tricky part. De Minaur just beat Cerundolo, but it wasn’t his best performance. He had a knee injury last season, and in his return he was very vulnerable. Alex is still in that recovery arc. Physically he’s fine, but it takes a while to return to your peak tennis because the only path to that generally is through matchplay. This match will be a good look at where he’s at in that journey. The extra wrinkle here is that Michelsen (as a young player) has a somewhat uncapped ceiling. I can tell you where it is physically in terms of running sprints, but the results he’s put up this week have been above his general level. He was projected to beat Tsitsipas and he did so fairly quickly. I thought Khachanov would drag him down but he won in straight sets. It’s hard to insist someone revert to their usual level when they’re very clearly balling above it. Michelsen is slapping his forehand fast this week, and he likes to go inside out with it when he has time which is the exact right shot to play against ADM. ADM has a lot of speed but a very flat backhand. It’s a safe target for Alex. This is really a race. Can ADM lock into Michelsen’s service patterns? If he’s able to put half the returns in play I think he’ll be able to establish a trend in the baseline rallies that makes Michelsen get a bit impatient. At the same time, Michelsen is scoring on guys who would compete fairly well against ADM so I don’t think there’s any way he gets shut out here.

For one set, I might like Michelsen. When I see guys who aren’t really defensively competent baseliners play De Minaur though, he just makes it obvious very early that every point is going to be a sprint drill, so I think he outlasts him. The rough thing about this prediction is a match I watched Virtanen play against ADM last year (while ADM was still not 100%). Virtanen has a wildly powerful offense, but could barely score on Alex. I think Michelsen should win a set or two based off the level he’s played thus far, but if he loses the first, or errors start to come during neutral rallies, it puts a lot of pressure on his first serve. This is one I think will show us a lot about Michelsen’s current level and his future ability. De Minauur in 4-5.

Monfils vs Shelton :

I flinch a little when the predictions are wrong, but I also smile to the heavens when I see Fritz nonplussed on the tennis court. Monfils is so good for tennis. He does things that no one else does, he plays for crowd, and he’s a tremendously skilled athlete. Yes, he grabs his ankles and pretends to be exhausted and injured. Yes, he gives up against Djokovic and the top guys and folds and cheats us of amazing matches. There may be issues, but the man with those issues also beats Taylor Fritz, so all is forgiven <3.

The book on Monfils right now is that he’ll be tired at some point. He’s at the end of a long run of matches after his title run in Auckland but there’s not a great way to determine when he’s toast. At the beginning of this event I might have liked him against Shelton, but this should be close. Shelton has buzzed through this draw with huge offense and careless errors. He made 556 unforced errors against Musetti, but won 81% of his first serves. Shelton is not careful for the ball. He plays for the crowd and wants to hit big winners and celebrate, and it is almost a curse that he has the ability to do this. When you can land the big shot, you see it on every swing. That option to go for the gusto is always present in your mind, so it starts to take even more self-control to stay in conservative patterns.

I would like Fritz against Shelton, so I should like Monfils as well. My issue with that is that I like to be stupid. I crave it. It becomes me. Shelton is a big match player, and he’ll know that this is a gift in the draw. He just played two solid defenders in PCB and Musetti, so he’ll know that he’s capable of winning a long match. His forehand and serve are the biggest weapons on the court, and we’re adding one more round of fatigue and exultation to Monfils, who many already thought would crash out against Fritz. It’ll be interesting to see how Shelton handles the pressure and the opportunity here. Shelton’s movement is better than Taylor’s, and despite him having a somewhat pedestrian backhand (compared to his forehand), he can be pretty stable on that wing. Monfils is playing well, but he doesn’t do anything in the rally that will keep Ben from plying his craft.

This is a careful dance where Shelton needs to minimize unforced errors and choose which points to play aggressively and which ones to relax on. He needs to manage his arm and expect a long match, and alternating between careful and courageous is a formula that will keep Monfils guessing. If you just make it clear to Gael that he can defend and expect errors, you’re never going to win. I think Shelton should be just a tiny bit better as this goes on, but that’s based on his ceiling more than it is on his results for the last few months. Shelton in 5.

Sonego vs Tien :

I like Learner Tien. He’s endearing in interviews, he’s absolutely maxing out his results based on his stature and physical ability, and he has an interesting name. His win against Moutet felt like karma after Moutet’s behavior against Krueger, and it lets him head into this match fresh and basically freerolling in this tournament. Tien’s whole progression on tour has been built around outlasting his opponents. He doesn’t really have a big enough game to stop anyone from getting into his service games, but he tends to get slightly better and eliminate errors as matches progress. Here he plays a guy who is the ideal opponent for him, but maybe he’s playing him at the wrong time.

Lorenzo Sonego has a great serve/forehand combo. He mixes in huge groundstrokes with deft dropshots, and his game has a significant peak and a lovely deep valley. He has wins against Djokovic, and losses where his opponent doesn’t even matter. The issue with Sonego’s game is always unforced errors or his backhand. For a tour level player, his backhand can have issues if it’s in constant use. This is tough against Learner, who maintains the lefty patterns well and wears down his opponent’s backhand, but also can go inside out comfortably. The spin he generates on his forehand lets him create some really nice short angles, and I think this one will be really tough for Sonego. I do think the hype surrounding Fonseca allowed Sonego to get a bit of defiance going, and he had some lucky breaks against Maroszan in the second set that allowed him to get a lot of momentum. Sonego’s best can beat Tien, but it will take a long time. I’ve predicted him losing two rounds in a row here, so I’ll sit quietly and watch every moment of this match. The best Sonego is incredibly good, I just think this is a stylistic nightmare for him, and Tien has the right game to drag him into a long match. Tien in 5.

WTA Singles :

Rybakina vs Keys :

Heading into this I had the sense that this is such an interesting clash that it doesn’t matter who I pick. I have a 50/50 chance of being right. When I know I don’t know, I try to offer that. As much as there’s a format to these things, I mostly want to offer what I see and know about tennis, sports, and turtle related activities. Chasing small fish, finding nice logs, and digging in the mud for good good bugs. These are the vibes.

The tennis here could be amazing, or it could be sad. Madison Keys is playing excellent, and Collins was not really ready to put up her best fight in the last round so it was an extra bonus for Keys. Madison Keys, in form on hardcourt, can beat anyone. She hits the ball a ton, and while she has lost the last two matches against Rybakina, there are some injury concerns here. Rybakina had some lower back issues against Yastremska, and it’s hard to gauge if she’ll be 100% here. Lower back issues are a huge problem for a server so Rybakina is a flight risk here. She’s played well so far and off-court drama hasn’t really impacted her results, so it’s a shame to see an injury affect her chances. I still think Rybakina is better overall. She has less variance in her groundstrokes than Keys, and plays with more margin without sacrificing efficiency or potency. This should be a powerful contest, but I partially expect Rybakina’s back issue to be the main story so I can’t be sure what happens. I like Rybakina in 3 if she’s healthy, because Keys can lose focus at times and Rybakina has establish herself as the more consistent combatant. If she’s off, Keys’ big hitting will become an issue. Madison tends to go huge on returns and will donate points, but when you’re struggling to hit serves due to pain, big returns can score quickly. Rybakina in 3 or an uncomfortable Keys in 2.

Kudermetova vs Svitolina :

Did the Kudermetova sisters find a magic ring, and does the magic ring grant you super sweet tennis moves, and did they switch who’s wearing it this week? Yes. 100%. This week Veronika has played tremendous, and she breezed past Haddad Maia after going down an early break in the first. She runs into a tough test here, and it’s always interesting to see the surging offenses run into the best defenses. Svitolina was returning from foot surgery here, and it’s safe to say she’s back to form. The final set against Paolini was tremendous.

Svitolina’s defense is exceptional, but Kudermetova hits to really small targets. She has extremely good depth on her groundstrokes when she lands, so she will still be able to score on Svitolina when she’s on. The big equalizer here for me is the serve. Svitolina has one of the best serves of any of the players on tour who are thought of as defensive wizards, so she’ll be able to take care of her half of the scoreline. This means it’s likely to be a long match, and a big test of Kudermetova’s level. Boulter and Haddad Maia are good wins, but I feel like Svitolina is a combination of the two. I’m expecting her to drop a set because of how well Kudermetova is hitting, but for the base level of Svitolina to sneak by. Svitolina in 3.

Navarro vs Kasatkina :

These are all incredibly good matches. Tonight might be the best night of tennis so far in the tournament, but that makes my job tough. Thus far I’ve backed Navarro to win because I felt she would outlast her opponents. She’s in a somewhat obvious slump, but her ability to defend and extend rallies makes a big difference. Now, she plays someone who does the same thing, and is peaking. Kasatkina was slated to lose to Putintseva, but won in straights. Navarro is the bigger hitter here, but the player more likely to make an error. This feels like one of those matches where the entire crowd leaves buzzing about tennis. Navarro at her best hits heavier than Kasatkina, and controls the baseline. In this state, she will have to carefully manage her unforced errors and aggression, and Kasatkina’s speed will apply a lot of pressure to her groundstrokes even if she has control. Darya has basically no serve, but she’s sharper than Navarro here.

Tricky spot. Emma has the higher upside, but she needs that version to appear right here. She was good against Jabeur, but she had 5 double faults, 32 unforced errors (13 winners), and I feel that she won that match because of Jabeur’s stamina issues. I just think this is a deciding match for Navarro. I think she loses finally, but if she can win she’s a title contender. Kasatkina in 2. I’m a Navarro fan but it’s hard for me to call for a brand new level to appear mid-tournament. The good news is she’ll have lots of time, since Kasatkina pretty much engages in 30 shot rallies every point.

Lys vs Swiatek :

Eva Lys made great work of the lucky loser spot, and though this is likely the end of the road, she is still allowed to play. She has lost every single first set to Cristian, but won every single match. She should look to establish the same puzzling dominance against Swiatek. Why not?

Swiatek is playing really well on hardcourt which is a welcome change, and her match against Raducanu was a bit anti-climactic. If this was the first round, maybe I’d look for cracks in the armor, but here I think Swiatek hits bigger than Lys, and since Lys has had some stamina issues in heat (the loss against Ito in Osaka stands out) going the distance with Swiatek feels somewhat unlikely. Lys has good groundstrokes in her weight class, but I think she’ll find a hard time holding serve here since Swiatek is such an aggressive returner. Swiatek in 2.