2024 Wimbledon Women's Semifinals
Rybakina vs Krejcikova :
A big surprise and a great resurgence for Krejcikova to make the semifinals of Wimbledon, but her play has improved every round. In the quarterfinals Ostapenko was expected to have the upper hand, but Barbora was just a little bit better on the big points. A tiebreaker win in the second had to have felt so good. Just avoiding that looming marathon third set situation can free players up, and while Krejcikova later had a 2.5 hour doubles match, she’s coming into this one facing no expectations again and facing an opponent who she again, has had good success against. Their previous meetings were back in 2021 and on hardcourt, but Krejcikova won both. Rybakina has been able to outhit everyone thus far, but Krejcikova does serve well (73% first serves against Ostapenko) and she has enough power to bother Rybakina a bit when she gets a full swing.
While Krejcikova was sneaking by Ostapenko, Rybakina rolled Svitolina. They traded early breaks but Rybakina closed out convincingly. She didn’t drop a point in the second set when her first serve landed, and her baseline tennis has been relentless. One look at Centre Court and you can see how difficult it’s becoming to play the ball when it lands deep in the court, and Rybakina’s deep hitting is likely to produce unforced errors from a player who hit 27 in the last round (compared to 15 winners). Their offenses can be similarly large, so Krejcikova will win more games than Svitolina did, but for what feels like the 4th round in a row, I expect Krejcikova to be the less consistent player. Rybakina in 2.
Paolini vs Vekic :
Paolini is not supposed to be here, but she is appearing in a lot of unexpected places this season. She’s 24-12 in 2024, and 14-2 at majors. Her defense has always been an effective tool, but this past week her offense has really been a huge factor. Against Navarro, she was the bigger hitter. Paolini went down a break in the first, and from there she won 5 games in a row to take the first 6-2. The second was more of the same, as Paolini ran away with the match against a player who had just beaten Coco Gauff in straights. Paolini’s level was so high last round that it’s hard to see her losing to anyone left in the draw aside from Rybakina. It will take an impressive level of hitting and rally tolerance, or a lights out serving performance.
Vekic is the better player on grass, and her offense is huge. When she has a forehand and the open court, you are toast. When they’re at even though, I think Paolini’s speed and ability to reflect power will be a huge boost to her. A big part of Vekic’s offense is her dropshots, and I think again Jasmine’s speed and focus will help her negate that a bit. That extra pressure of hitting big against a very quick player or trying to make dropshots perfect can lead to errors. Vekic needs to serve well this match, and last round she was only at 54%. So far this event Vekic has been dealing with players who are honestly at a lower tier than who Paolini has been playing. Paolini has just gone through Andreescu (a threat to go on a deep run with multiple major titles), Keys (same thing but 1 major), and Navarro (who just knocked off the biggest seed left in the draw). Vekic has played Yastremska (who hasn’t been sharp post-AO), Badosa (whose result is the high point but who has just returned from back issues), and Sun (who is playing her first major and is mostly an offensive talent).
It’s an intriguing matchup of offense vs defense, but Paolini’s aggressive hitting against Navarro adds a new wrinkle. Vekic is not the best lateral defender and I think she’ll have a lot of pressure on her unforced error count (which was 32-26 vs Sun and 33-31 vs Badosa). She needs to do a little better or this is 2-0 for Paolini, and if Vekic wants to win a set she needs to land more like 60% first serves. Should be a tremendous match, but I like Paolini in 2.