2024 Wimbledon Women's Finals

Krejcikova vs Paolini :

There are 0 people on the planet who expected this to be the closing match at Wimbledon, yet this is one of the best finals we could possibly have. Krejcikova and Paolini have shown up in a major way this week. Krejickova is a player I’ve thought would lose every round she’s played, but her level has improved in each of those matches. She has played to the level of her opponent and shown a wide spectrum of play, but at this point there’s no reason to doubt her anymore. Beating Rybakina in the form she was in was incredible, and she did it by wearing her down with big hitting. Early in the match Elena was her usual dominant self, but rather than shift towards defense, Krejcikova just kept swinging full. When Rybakina finally eased up, she lost control. Once Krejcikova was the one with time, the match looked very even. If you happened to watch Fritz vs Musetti, you’re familiar with what happened here. Rybakina still had control of rallies, but Krejcikova’s defense sharpened up. The ball kept coming back a few extra times, and rather than look to score in a few shots, Rybakina kept trying to finish the point with one big swing. Players wind up supplying all the offense, punch themselves out, and the unforced errors start to feel like huge moments.

In the second, Krejcikova faced a break point in each of her first three service games, but she was able to hang on until she broke for 4-2. The boomerang break after not capitalizing is pretty common, and while it might be coincidental more than causal, Rybakina seemed to get a bit frustrated. She had one opportunity to apply pressure to Krejcikova’s serve at 3-5, but a slight lack of focus gave Krejcikova the game. Rybakina had been brought forward and off the court to the ad side, and the ball she sent back was a fairly simple putaway. Rybakina was only just outside the court and inside the service line, but she stood still after the retrieve rather than recover to the court. Krejcikova misjudged the putaway, and ended up floating a half volley that let Rybakina back into the rally. Since she had stopped playing, she got there late and the lob attempt she was forced to play was put away easily. If she’d have kept playing, it would have been an easy put-away and a service game at duece gives Rybakina a good chance and puts a lot of pressure on Krejcikova. Not a huge issue, but something to remember. Play until the point is over; he’s obviously faster than her but it’s something Nadal has always done and he has profited from it so often.

After finding her game late in the first, Krejcikova would go on to not lose her serve for the remainder of the match, and this build to a high level has been the key in her last few wins. Krejcikova starts slow, but if she can get in a rhythm, she hits bigger from the baseline than most servers, and serves too well for most baseliners. She’s just a bit better at a few things than most specialists, and her doubles savvy lets her utilize a lot of variety and tough shots in big moments when most players default to just hitting the ball hard and hoping for errors. This will be a key against Paolini, who has proven to be one of the best defenders on tour this season.

Paolini is into her second Grand Slam final in a row after one of the most clutch performances I have ever seen. Vekic and Paolini played a two hour and 54 minute semifinal that featured nonstop offense from Vekic and saw Paolini just hanging on by a thread for the last two hours of it. The first set was no contest. Vekic was serving incredibly well, and her forehand was unplayable. Paolini had served and hit well against Navarro, but her serve completely abandoned her in this match. This let Vekic take full swings and hang in on the baseline, and unsurprisingly she created 14 break points in this match. Just for context on how lucky Paolini is to be through, she lost the first set 6-2, and was down in the scoreline in every single service game in the second set.

There are sometimes points that swing the momentum in a match in a major way. The one I’d point to was 3-4 15-30 in the second set. Vekic had an easy overhead (thought nothing is easy in the semifinals of a major) at net, and somehow sent it all the way cross-court and out. Hindsight is 20/20, but it was a ball she could have converted with less power and a much safer target. At the time, everything was going well, so the mistake didn’t seem big, but it was a match where Paolini had resorted to scrambling and trying to infuse height on her forehand hoping for errors. At that point, they hadn’t come. After the point Vekic smiled and laughed a bit, but she stayed at net for a bit longer than I liked. Not that everyone can be Nadal, and not that a single point is why she lost the match, but a quick reset and a less emotional response might have fared better. It was a huge chance to close out, and she tried to hit an emphatic winner in a match she was already dominating. Paolini was looking for literally anything to grab onto in this clash, and that is the point where she really started to believe. Her hustle started to pay off, and she finally was able to break Vekic’s serve at the end of the second.

I can point to a missed overhead and try to pretend laughing has no place in a match, but Vekic still looked likely to win the third. Paolini played better,but she started off down a break. When she finally got it back for 3-3, she was quickly broken again. Vekic looked better, but she began having forearm issues. They levelled at 4-4 and wound up in a tiebreak. It felt like Paolini hadn’t scored two points in a row on serve in the entire match, so the tiebreaker format felt like it really benefitted Vekic. What ensued was a classic battle, in which they exchanged only 1 minibreak each until the end.

I do not honestly know how Paolini escaped this one, but I think she managed the moment better than Vekic. I’ll offer an example. Donna was having pain in her right arm in the third, and she asked for ice. They brought ice towels rather than a bag of ice. Vekic reacted somewhat poorly. The reaction makes sense, because ice towels won’t give the quick topical effect that direct ice will for inflammation/pain, and the match was nearly over. The tournament I think should have ice towels/icebags/other quick fix equipment on standby generally (the majors at least), but I lost a little sympathy when they brought ice at the next changeover, and she didn’t even use it. It felt like late in the match she started deflecting blame while worrying about the impending loss, and it took away from her focus and execution in a match that she absolutely could have won still. Her dialogue with her box became fairly labored, and overall it just felt like Paolini was in terrible shape the entire match but kept her head and kept grinding. If I notice that I’m lost in thought on the court, I take a deep breath, and remind myself that I don’t know what’s going to happen. “Why don’t you just stfu and see what happens” is not professional coaching advice, but it’s helpful to remember that the stuff you’re worrying about is just a thought.

Paolini vs Krejcikova is a match I’d rather not even try to predict, but here goes. They don’t have much h2h data, as their only meeting was over 5 years ago. Paolini has basically been a first round or qualifying loser at Wimbledon and all other grass tournaments until this year. The slower Wimbledon conditions can be half a factor in her success, but Paolini is really playing great this year. Paolini’s level against Vekic likely can’t beat Krejcikova, but the way she played against Navarro would be very competitive. The shift in Paolini’s game against Vekic was not ideal if I’m being honest. She went away from hitting flat (because she was rushed by Donna’s power and her sliding forehand), and started trying to use topspin to buy time. It really doesn’t work well on grass, and Krejcikova will outhit her if that’s her plan here. Barbora doesn’t have the same ability to make the ball slide on grass with her forehand that Vekic does, so we might see a more resilient and harder hitting Paolini in this one. At the same time, Krejcikova has way more rally tolerance than Vekic, and she isn’t launching aces but she has a big delivery on serve. It feels like Paolini’s only path to victory here is to outlast Krejcikova and expose her slightly slow lateral movement, but it’ll be very tough going if Krejcikova maintains the same level of play she ended her matches against Ostapenko and Rybakina with. Collins Ostapenko and Rybakina are absolutely considered title contenders at Wimbledon, and Krejcikova beat them. This would be an absolutely heroic win for either player, but it feels like Paolini will have to take the long road if she wins, while Krejcikova’s heavy hitting and Paolini’s difficulties serving may prove to be a big factor. I really don’t know who wins. Krejcikova serving 73% first serves in the previous round is unreal, but she had 26 unforced errors vs 25 winners. Paolini wins by outlasting players but Krejcikova has been adopting this strategy as well.

This is going to be one of the greatest finals in tennis history, and it will ultimately go to Krejcikova if she can up her consistency a little. Krejcikova in 2 or Paolini in 3 is what I’ve been going back and forth between, but it feels like both players are determined enough and consistent enough to force this to a deciding set. This should feature a lot of 10+ shot rallies, and I think the key is whether Paolini’s speed allows her to dominate these and force Krejcikova to go too big, or whatever Krejcikova’s power has the same effect on Paolini’s shot selection that Vekic’s offense did. I suppose I have to pick someone, so I’m going with the upset. The Centre Court conditions have allowed defense to become a big factor, so Paolini may be the perfect opponent to outlast Krejcikova. This depends entirely on Paolini ironing out her service issues, but she will have had a few practices to work on this. Paolini in 3.