2024 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Round Two - Wednesday Matches

ATP Singles :

Sinner vs Berrettini :

Big test here for Sinner. He’s currently the favorite to win this event which is pretty amazing considering the defending champion just won the last major, but nobody really wants to play Matteo Berrettini. Berrettini’s serve and forehand are good enough to score on just about anyone, but he’s been denied a major time and time again by the big 3. With them out of the picture, guys like Sinner and Alcaraz are expected to fill that role. Berrettini’s offense is absurd, but his backhand is a liability. His two-hander isn’t consistent, and his slice is good but it doesn’t get him out of trouble. He’s 2/3 of a Grand Slam winner, but the guys who are complete players always look inevitable against him.

Sinner is playing well, and he’s one of the best returners in the game right now. His backhand is in the top 5 on tour, so this is a bad matchup for Berrettini. There will be a lot of hype for Matteo and he certainly can take care of his serve most of the time, but his run since his return to the tour came against players at a much lower tier. He lost to Giron, and he lost to Draper. They played once before in Toronto, and Sinner won in straight sets. With the boost grass gives to Berrettini, I think he can get to overtime in at least one set, but he’ll need to be very good about his decision-making in those big moments. Berrettini’s forehand is also huge, but Sinner reflects power very well and he defends to the forehand wing nicely. Sinner in 4.

Kecmanovic vs Griekspoor :

Griekspoor was very solid in round one, and I think he’s a bit better than Kecmanovic here. When Miomir is on, he crushes the ball and serves well, but he has lapses in quality and his timing on the forehand can disappear. Against Nagal, he was pitching a shutout early, but Nagal defending was enough to get him back in the match and even earn him a set. Griekspoor can rally better than Nagal, and he serves significantly better. They just played in Hertogenbosch and the result was a 3 set win for Griekspoor. Oddly, all three sets were tiebreakers, so it can be expected here that the server will hold a big % of the time. Griekspoor’s mechanics are just a bit more repeatable than Kecmanovic’s, so I think he repeats here. Griekspoor in 4-5.

Shapovalov vs Altmaier :

Shapo! Denis played a great match in round one, and he gets a break here. Altmaier managed to outlast Arthur Fery, but he was extremely error prone. He rushed things often, and missed a bunch of forehands. If Fery was a bit more effective on serve, he could have won. Here, Shapovalov is thriving on the surface and Altmaier is struggling against it. I expect this to be pretty lopsided. Shapovalov in 3.

Harris vs Shelton :

Both these players played a five setter in round one, so neither one will be terribly confident coming into this. Harris and Michelsen was expected to be close, so Harris will be happy with his win. Shelton Bellucci, on the other hand, is a match Shelton would normally be expected to win quickly. His slump on grass does not seem to be ending though. He makes a few too many errors and he doesn’t seem to return well either. The losses in minor tournaments are ignorable, but when you start struggling with every lower tier player it becomes a problem. Losses to Duckworth, Perricard, Jubb, and now 5 sets with Bellucci. It’s hard to picture Harris winning this match with a smaller offense, but it’s where we’re at. Shelton has the serving ability to overcome his errors, but Harris is a good defender and he’s in a good rhythm. If he can isolate Shelton’s backhand, he is at least 50/50 here. I do think the upset is en route. Shelton has been able to come from behind for a long time (especially on hardcourt) but on grass against a player with similar firepower on serve, it’ll be tough. Harris in 4.

Dimitrov vs Shang :

I don’t think too many people thought Shang / Garin would be a straight set win for either player, but Juncheng (or Jerry) has been improving his game constantly and grass seems to suit him. He defends as good as anyone from neutral in a rally, and putting extra balls back pays huge dividends in tennis. Here he’ll have a really tough opponent but should acquit himself well. Dimitrov has somehow turned into a consistent performer, and he was able to beat Lajovic in straight sets as expected.

Shang should focus here on isolating Dimitrov’s backhand, but this is a tier of player and a variety of player he has lost to thus far. He lost to Billy Harris (big serve and forehand), he lost to Fearnley (big serve and forehand), and he lost to Taylor Fritz (big serve and forehand). It isn’t that Shang is a bad returner, but the defensive baselining is something that can be overcome on grass by a big enough offense. Dimitrov is serving well and his experience and athletic ability should let him navigate Shang’s strong defending. While I think Shang is outgunned here, I do think it will take Grigor a while to get the win. When he knows he’s going to win, he tends to play very controlled and measured tennis which is good, but can lead to him becoming a bit predictable. It happened against Bergs at RG and I think it’ll happen here. Dimitrov in 4-5.

Wawrinka vs Monfils :

Wawrinka played well in round one and a straight set win means he’ll be able to ball still in round two. The ol Wawrinka legs have at least two rounds in them as long as he doesn’t go above 3.5 hours, but if he gets through here I think he’ll be toasted. Monfils is an excellent defender and he has a good serve. He’s not always great on grass, but he’s having a good month here. Last round against Mannarino got a little tricky, but Monfils was able to outlast him in rallies pretty consistently. Wawrinka’s serve will allow him to keep this close, but the moment it becomes a baseline battle it will be really tough for him to score. He can dial up a really high level still, but I don’t think it happens for long enough to hit through La Monf. Monfils in 3-4.

Zhang vs Struff :

Good wins for both in round one, and this is going to be a ridiculously entertaining match. Both Struff and Zhang have a huge first serve and immense power, and they both are offensive minded. I actually think Zhang is a better defender, but Struff is having a much better run on grass right now. He also defeated Zhang in Stuttgart last year, so he’ll be familiar with the task at hand. Sometimes playing someone for the first time can make it really tough to return serve, but for an aggressive returner like Struff familiarity can let him open up. Zhang’s losses to Tiafoe and Kecmanovic make me think he’ll be a few games worse in this one. On hardcourt I think it’s even but on grass Struff’s comfort serve and volleying can help him a lot. Struff in 4.

Muller vs Medvedev :

Good win for Muller in round one (Gaston in 3), but he’s now expected to get the business from Medvedev. I don’t necessarily think Medvedev is that good on grass, but Muller is a baseliner and he doesn’t have the type of power you need to really rush Medvedev on grass. Should be a high quality match but one that Medvedev gets to decide the length of. Medvedev in 3-4.

Alcaraz vs Vukic :

Alcaraz won in 3, but the story of the match was Mark Lajal. He showed great poise, served within himself, and pushed the defending champion way more than was expected. It’ll be good to see him get some chances later this year in indoor events, because his offense is excellent.
For now, Alcaraz plays another good serve who will score on him, but likely can’t really hold onto the lead long enough to be a threat. Vukic and Ofner was a tremendous battle, and while Vukic is likely going to be okay for this one, mentally it can be a grind to find your best serving after a 5-set battle. Alcaraz details can wait for later, but the kid plays harder than everyone, he’s in better shape than them, and he’s constantly improving. Vukic will compete fine when he’s standing still but he’s a step too slow to hang with Carlos. Alcaraz in 3-4.

Coric vs Tiafoe :

I saw none of Coric and Meligeni Alves. I thought I had all the time in the world because I expected a 5 setter, but Coric won in straights and that leaves this match a bit difficult. Tiafoe Arnaldi was a thrilling battle, but Arnaldi was unable to close out. The lack of matchplay was clear from Tiafoe. He’s still an incredible player, but he was unable to execute reliably. He hits a great serve, then he double faults. He hits a perfect forehand, then he sends one wide. Any run of match wins can get him back into form because it’s just repetitions that are lacking, but in this round he’s up against a guy whose entire plan is to be a frustrating opponent. Coric plays slow, grinds away, and his celebrations are meant for his opponent to see. He’s not a villain, but it is likely that he’s the type of player Tiafoe does not want to have to player all out to beat. Coric back in form makes this a good spot, and after Tiafoe’s comment about “losing to clowns” there will be a lot of people who want to see him lose. Still, I think Arnaldi is a tougher test for Tiafoe than Coric, because while Borna is better on grass, he’s not as good from the baseline. I expect the Tiafoe run to continue, and hopefully when he sees how much the gap between him and Alcaraz has widened, he’ll start training again. Tiafoe in 4.

Nakashima vs Thompson :

5 hour battleground classic incoming. Thompson will smash at least 2 racquets, Nakashima will hit at least 5 open court shots long for no apparent reason. These two are playing great on grass right now, and this section of the draw is a little bit weak. Humbert/Botic are waiting in the next round, and that’s winnable. Nakashima is holding serve well lately, but he’s a little bit slow laterally which may let Thompson out-rally him in the end. Thompson had a really tough spot against Kotov, and while it went 5 sets he closed out nicely. Both players are too good to get blown out, but not great enough to really win quickly. To me, Thompson likely has better stamina here and more experience playing marathon matches. Thompson in 5.

Van De Zandschulp vs Humbert :

I was not aware, but Broady is dealing with a stress fracture in his ankle, and he recently had a concussion. It translated to Botic winning a much needed first round at a major, and now he plays a volatile lefty in round two. Humbert is stable emotionally, but his game ebbs and flows. He plays very aggressive and hits very lose to the net, so errors can flow. Shevchenko benefitted from extending rallies, but I’m not sure if Botic will do the same. This looks more like an offensive battle, and Humbert is in slightly better form. Humbert in 3-4.

Paul vs Virtanen :

Otto Virtanen played amazing against Purcell. His serve is a cannon, but his forehand was hitting clean winners and dropshots over and over. He looked comfortable, but Purcell looked tired. After a long run in Eastbourne, he seemed to have trouble landing first serves, and his timing suffered. So despite Virtanen’s excellent play, I think Tommy Paul represents a huge step up. While Virtanen’s offense is nearly unplayable, he does make a lot of errors if he feels pressured. Paul’s speed and solid backhand will make things a little rough on Otto, and Tommy is looking in decent form this week. He’ll have to outlast the peak moments from Virtanen, but his own serve is good enough to trouble Otto, who can spray errors at times in return games. I expect Virtnanen to win 25% of this match basically. If it was a 2/3 format, he’d have a much better chance, but in a long match I don’t think he maintains the level required. Paul in 4.

Cazaux vs Bublik :

Great comeback win for Cazaux. The final set tiebreakers on tour are really tough to watch sometimes. Bergs plays a great match, and in the tiebreaker he made 3-4 immediate errors and never got back into the match. Halfway through the 5th set Cazaux looked exhausted, but throughout the match he seemed the player more willing to take big chances. In this next round, he might actually be the more consistent player. I like Bublik to win this match, but he was really tough to watch in round one.

Bublik has a habit of deflecting when the situation is difficult and a loss looms in his thoughts. He starts making excuses to his box, keeping track of what unlucky things happen, and it’s like watching a player craft a story justifying their loss before it even happens. Sometimes when I find myself in my own head before a serve or after a rally, I take a deep breath and remind myself that “I’m still here”. The sky hasn’t fallen, the future we’re worrying about often doesn’t arrive, and even if it’s looming we might as well do our best right now and see what happens. The moon doesn’t explode if you try your best and lose, but if you don’t dig in in those moments you never improve, and you never find out where your game is at. Bublik had Mensik at duece in like 50% of his service games, but he couldn’t break. I think he’ll fare much better against Cazaux, but he needs to manage his focus because Cazaux is more comfortable on grass than Mensik. Bublik’s game is perfect for grass, he just needs to see the fear that comes up as noise. What if thoughts can take on many different forms, but they’re just thoughts. Clouds can look like tigers, but we don’t get bit. Anyway, Bublik in 4-5. I think he’ll have slightly more stamina here.

Sonego vs Bautista-Agut :

RBA is back! Both these players raced through their first round, and now it’s a great spot for both to snag some $ and points. Bonus here with Ruud in the next round, because Casper is not expected to go deep in this event. Sonego has the classic grass-court game I expect to do well, but RBA is really tough to hit through. Sonego’s output is incredible, and his serve is effective, but RBA makes the game ugly. He doesn’t hit big enough to end rallies, but he doesn’t make many errors that let you escape. He wears down your legs, and he isolates your backhand. It’s the exact right formula to possibly beat Sonego, who’s big liability is unforced errors and his backhand. RBA in 5.

Fognini vs Ruud :

Fognini has a poor attitude at times so it’s tough to expect the best from him in a losing effort. Ruud barely plays grass and his first round win was a bit of a surprise. This should be a great match as a result. Ruud managed to save 9 of 10 break points against Bolt, so I’m expecting Fognini to win at least a set. Fabio straight setted Luca Van Assche (a solid defensive baseliner), so you know he’s capable of creating in rallies now. Ruud should grind through this. Fognini is good, but Ruud is a younger player and has a decent serve. His forehand isn’t ideal for grass, but it’s the biggest weapon on tour. As I’m typing this alarm bells are blaring because Fognini is such an unknown commodity, but Ruud in 5.

WTA Singles :

Sun vs Starodubtseva :

Huuuuuuge upset for Lulu Sun. Zheng isn’t the best on grass which is what caused the result, but it’s still the biggest win of Sun’s career and she played well. Despite beating Zheng, I think I like the other side here. The one thing Sun is still lacking a bit is defense on her backhand side, and Starodubtseva is in great form during the rally. Should be really close in terms of score, but Staro is a bit more well-rounded so a lot of pressure will be on Sun’s serve. Starodubtseva in 3.

Zhu vs Pavlyuchenkova :

Zhu played great in round one, but Begu was all out of sorts. She made frequent errors and didn’t look like herself at all. It’s a good win for Zhu, who now faces a slightly more powerful opponent. Pavlyuchenkova hits big, has experience on grass, and serves better than Zhu. Barring fatigue (which is unlikely since Pavs just played an offensive talent), this goes to Pavlyuchenkova in 3.

Raducanu vs Mertens :

Raducanu got a big gift in round one, as Alexandrova had to withdraw. The replacement was Renata Zarazua, who doesn’t really have the serving ability nor the offense that Alexandrova did. Still, Zarazua’s defense and consistency pushed Raducanu to the limit. The book on her at this point is that she can play with anyone, but her level can drop off at times. It makes this next match pretty interesting. Elyse Mertens doesn’t seem that reliable lately, but when she’s on she still beats lower tier opponents. I don’t know if Raducanu is considered better or worse than her honestly. Raducanu’s US Open title makes her career sound better, but overall Mertens has been way more lodged in the top echelons of the games. Raducanu’s consistency is pitted against Mertens ability to move the ball around here. I like Emma because she hits the ball bigger than Mertens and her backhand is excellent, but watching Zarazua wear her down makes me think Mertens will make this closer than the crowd is comfortable with. Raducanu in 3.

Rus vs Sakkari :

Surprise (at least for me) win for Rus in round one, and her reward is one of the seeds who enjoys early exits in matches no one expects her to lose. Sakkari has become the FAA of the women’s tour, with all the tools to win and past success against every big name, but an inability to summon her best tennis on command. Tennis is tough, but it feels like it’s a mental thing here. The decision-making falls apart in pressure moments. Can Rus apply enough pressure to benefit from this? I don’t actually think so, but Sakkari matches are no longer sure things. Sakkari in 3, Rus is not really at this level but her being lefty and serve well will put a lot of pressure on Sakkari’s backhand.

Kasatkina vs Miyazaki :

Great win for Miyazaki. Kasatkina is unfortunately a matchup nightmare. Miyazaki does most of her work from the baseline and Kasatkina is a wall. Kasatkina in 2.

Badosa vs Fruhvirtova :

I tuned in halfway through the Andreeva Fruhvirtova match and the level was so impressive. Junior matches (even in the pros) feature such clean ballstriking and long rallies. Fruhvirtova had been getting outlasted early in the match, but as the second set went on she started to be the player more in control. She found a good rhythm, and Andreeva started to only defend. It was a huge win for the junior phenom, and I don’t totally count her out against Badosa. Paola played a great match against Muchova, but the blowout win wasn’t totally her stellar play. Muchova is not herself yet, and a wrist injury takes a while to come back from. Edges Badosa has against Brenda are power and serving. Badosa hits much bigger than Andreeva, and she can get short returns off her serve. Andreeva eventually got outhit by Fruhvirtova, so it’ll be interesting to see how she does against a more powerful opponent.

Working for Fruhvirtova is the fact that Badosa is not the most consistent player. She can be an excellent defender, but if you ask whose game is more consistent : Mirra or Badosa, Badosa herself will tell you it isn’t her. She should win here, but Fruhvirtova’s play is really sharp. Badosa in 2 or Fruhvirtova in 3.

Yastremska vs Gracheva :

Yastremska’s power against Gracheva’s … accuracy? Varvara Gracheva plays some incredible tennis at times, but it’s hard to describe her game. Her forehand is a smooth technique, but it sometimes comes out with immense pace. Her backhand is pretty flat, and her serve is decent. She isn’t the biggest hitter, or the best defender, but she has a really interesting shot selection and it seems to work. Here, Yastremska is the bigger hitter but she’s probably not the favorite. Gracheva’s game gets a little bigger boost from the surface and Dayana’s run at the AO is the last time she really played her best tennis. Really close one here, but Gracheva in 3.

Vekic vs Erika Andreeva :

I think this is simple? Andreeva lost a lopsided match to Kartal at the end of qualifying, and Vekic has the same level of ballstriking and power. Andreeva got Sabalenka’s spot which was a great gift, and defeated Bektas in 3. I think Andreeva’s defense is incredible, but Vekic should be too strong for her here. Vekic in 2.

Paolini vs Minnen :

Paolini was up 4-0 against Tormo in the second, and wound up back on serve. She won the match in straights, but it just took a long time to get there. I’m not totally optimistic about her chances here as a result. Minnen has a great serve and lot of power in her forehand. While she loses to unforced errors, and that’s the way Paolini wins, Paolini isn’t guaranteed rallies on grass. I would not be surprised if this went 3 sets, and Paolini will be happy I think to get back on clay for the Olympics. Paolini in 2-3.

Andreescu vs Noskova :

Andreescu is back, and I love it. She’s not totally her major winning self yet, but she has a great sense of what to do on the court. She chooses the right shot almost intuitively, and when she has two options it feels like she always manages to find the open court. Her and Noskova should feature big hitting and nonstop offense, so it’s worth watching this one. Noskova defeated Errani in straights, which might not sound great but is a terrific win. Errani is a bit past her prime, but she is excellent at finding ways to win sets. She was even up a break in the first, but Noskova reeled her back in. I think Noskova can hit big enough on her forehand to work through Andreescu’s defense, but Bianca is the better serve to me and that should eventually pay dividends. With two big offenses a few key points can decide a match, and things tend to go quickly, but I like Andreescu to make the right adjustments and a few extra retrieves here. Andreescu in 3.

Kostyuk vs Saville :

Saville only wins this of Kostyuk makes errors. Kostyuk played well in round one, and if she knows she has an edge in power she tends to play more measured tennis. Kostyuk in 2.

Wang Yafan vs Keys :

Wang continued her dominance against Schmiedlova, and Keys overcame some early struggles against Trevisan to win in two. Wang will move the ball around and give us a good look at Keys’ timing, but she doesn’t really have the type of weapons you need to beat Madison. Keys in 2.

Stephens vs Shnaider :

Shnaider had a really tough test against Pliskova, and was down a set before she finally got comfortable in the match. A three set win is more than welcome, and her title route here seems to only run through Grand Slam champions. Sloane Stephens was enjoying a mega-slump, but she played well against Jacquemot. Early in the match it was clear that Elsa couldn’t hit big enough to end rallies, and Stephens locked in and defended until she earned errors. This next match should be really tough for both players. Shnaider has to be getting a little bit tired, and Stephens is a wall. On the flipside, Stephens prefers to play a slower pace, and Shnaider’s power will rush her. Shnaider brings in the higher level but this is the most vulnerable she’s been in the past few weeks. I’m wary of believing in Stephens, but I feel obliged to warn people that Shnaider is at the tail end of a lot of matches. Shnaider in 3. Although Stephens is a tough matchup, I think Shnaider’s ability to hit big makes her more effective than Jacquemot against Sloane’s defense.

Osaka vs Navarro :

This is spicy. Emma Navarro has risen to the top ranks in tennis at a time where Osaka was wholly absent. Now she gets to play her on a huge stage, and Osaka is back to good form. Everyone loves an easy win, but great competitors want to challenge themselves, and Navarro will be hungry for this one. Osaka is back if you watch highlights, but she’s a little bit prone to rally ball errors right now. Backhands in the net or dragged wide are somewhat of an issue, so Navarro will get a little boost. I think Osaka plays better on grass, but Emma is the more steady player in random situations. Osaka winning is exciting for tennis, but I like Navarro here. She’s a really good player, and the only real problems in her game are that she can still be outhit by the top few players. Osaka fits that mold, but she’s not as steady as the Rybakinas/Sabalenkas of the tour. Navarro in 3.

Kartal vs Burel :

Burel surprised a lot of people by beating Lys first round, and after being wrong about that I will back it up by calling for her loss again. Sonay Kartal is a problem. She’s in incredible shape which makes her swing repeatable even under pressure or late in a match. This was big against Cirstea, who decided to redline at 0-0 against Kartal. Cirstea served huge, and hit every ball with full commitment. Kartal defended well, but Cirstea was a bit too much. After going up a set and a break, it felt a bit scary for Kartal fans. She started to make inroads though. Cirstea started to make errors, and Kartal started to dominate rallies. So far on tour, when Kartal has control, she doesn’t let it go. She rolled in the third, and I think she will be able to beat Burel. Burel is way more solid than Cirstea, but she doesn’t hit that big and Kartal has an effective serve. It feels like Burel will win only if Kartal gets impatient, and her game is pretty unknown and measured right now. Kartal in 2.

Gauff vs Todoni :

Tune in. Todoni is legit. She first popped up at the ITF and Challenger level in the clay tour in South America, and she was winning some decent matches. Fast forward and she’s qualified for her first major and she’s in the second round. Huge boost for her ranking and huge check in her pocket. I don’t think she can beat Gauff, but it’s a great opportunity to see how she stacks up against the top of the tour. Todoni is really good, and worth watching. Gauff in 2.