2024 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Round Three - Saturday Matches

ATP Singles :

Comesana vs Musetti :

Time to get some matches wrong. Comesana played excellent again and managed to outlast Adam Walton. Walton’s wide serve from the ad side is nearly unplayable, and Comesana basically needed to hang on and manage his emotions during the service games where he didn’t get a look. It was a good win, and he is playing another somewhat winnable match here. Musetti is playing some great tennis, but he’s playing it when he needs to so far this week rather than all the time. Darderi was up on him in the scoreline 2-1, and he had chances to win. If Darderi had a bigger serve, I think he’d be through to the third round. Musetti served 74% for the match which is excellent, and his winners/unforced errors ratio was positive (66-44). His defense will make it tough for Comesana to score, and he’s the bigger hitter when he ratchets up the pace.

For me, I think Comesana serves a bit more effectively than Darderi. He looks to score when he can, and he has a better set of slices and net approaches than Luciano. Against Musetti, it will be very tough to score, but I think he can play even with him for much of this match. Walton is a much easier match than Musetti, but his serving is much tougher. A good baseliner vs a tremendous baseline defender usually makes for a long match, and I think physical strength will win this one. Musetti should outlast his opponent here, but since Comesana’s run on this surface is brand new, it’s still very much up in the air where his current ceiling is. Musetti in 5.

Mpetshi Perricard vs Ruusuvuori :

Perricard’s win against Nishioka was extremely impressive. Nishioka is not the best competitor when things go against him, but beating him in straight sets after beating Korda indicates that Perricard is near the top of his game. Ruusuvuori and Tsitsipas turned into one of the more subdued upsets of the day, as Ruusuvuori just sort of found momentum and kept winning. It seemed many times like Tsitsipas would come back and finish him off, but it just never happened. The best thing Ruus did in this match was hit his backhand crosscourt. He created very sharp short angles over and over, and Tstitsipas has trouble generating power from there with his one-hander. It’s not bad footwork, but i feels like he needs to get further sideways than some to hit his backhand well, and it means that when he’s dragged wide, it’s extra work for him and he tends to just spin it in cross-court without much depth or pace.

Perricard should beat Ruusuvori. It’s one guy whose game is perfect for the surface and who is playing their best, against a guy who’s struggling to find form and has just sort of dragged their way through two matches. Oddly though, I’m not sure Perricard gets this. His offense is tremendous, but he isn’t the sharpest on defense. Ruusuvori just got a number of reps isolating a one-hander, and this match is largely the same formula. The good Ruusuvori has a higher ceiling than Perricard, so the question here is how “back” is Emir. Perricard’s run has been great, but a lot of his wins have been against weaker players. This is a very interesting spot, and my “what I know” is very vague. I’m fairly certain that Ruusuvuori doesn’t get beat the way Nishioka did. He hits much bigger, he serves much better, and grass suits his game better. He did well returning Tsitsipas’ serve, and while Stef is not a great grass-court player, it’s still not easy to beat him. Everything about their season so far says Perricard is supposed to win, but Ruusuvuori’s slump is unique. His slump is only notable because of how tremendous his game is when he plays well. With him winning two matches in a row, I’m scared his run might continue, and Perricard is not the best defender since he’s tall and utilizes a one-hander. I’ll get this one wrong, but Ruusuvori in 5.

Fritz vs Tabilo :

Fritz has played great this week, and his last round he decided to try his hand at being spicy. Rinderknech and Fritz had a contentious match at Roland Garros, where Fritz gave the “shush” gesture to the crowd and trolled them in the post-match interview. Here, he seemed okay for most of the match, but at net he had a few words for Rinderknech. “Have a nice flight home” is pretty good, and while I don’t know that it was necessary, a little salt is okay if you’re about that life. The problem for me is what happened after. Fritz went to put his racquet away, but Rinderknech came over to talk to him. At that point, Fritz didn’t really seem to want to talk anymore, and stayed rummaging in his bag. Tennis is not the NHL by any means, but if you’re the instigator and then you’re not up for whatever comes next, it’s kinda soft. It’s not a stretch at all to say that Fritz and Rinderknech are soft, and that almost makes their frosted mini-beef acceptable. Nothing will come of it, and a little rivalry is okay. Still, you can’t start it and then decide it’s over. I also am not a fan at all of talking trash after you win the match. Would Fritz have had something to say if he lost? Talk during the match, talk before, make it exciting, and give the other person a heads-up.

Up next is Tabilo, who is in great form and just beat a top tier player. I like Fritz to continue his run here but only because of fatigue. Tabilo played a bunch of matches last week, and his 5 set battle with Cobolli was exhausting. Flavio plays every point like it’s match point, and Tabilo’s reserves have to be dwindling after that match. Fritz has beaten Tabilo in their last two meetings (hardcourt and clay) and his serving and form currently make him at least an even prospect. Since their last rounds were wildly different, I think Fritz will be in 2nd round form physically and Tabilo will be in second week form. Fritz’s forehand here will make life tough on Tabilo’s backhand, and he trades cross-court well with his own backhand so he’ll have a slightly better split on both of the main battles. Fritz in 4.

Norrie vs Zverev :

I’M SORRY CAM! I DIDN’T KNOW YOU WERE STILL HERE! I had said that Norrie had a good h2h against Draper, but that it was a “prove it” spot. Well, he proved it. Cam was back to his frustrating self, and he wore Draper down admirably. The one thing I really liked was how much pop Norrie had on his serve at times. That really let him close out in the third set, and now he’ll play a familiar foe. Zverev and Norrie have played 5 times, and Norrie is yet to win one. This year in Australia though he managed to drag things into a fifth, so he’ll be feeling optimistic. It’s really difficult to beat Norrie quickly, and if he’s playing well enough to beat Draper then he’ll be effective here. His backhand bounces very low and flat and that will test Zverev’s forehand. Zverev’s backhand is solid, but his forehand has trouble generating pace when the ball is low.

Norrie is a tough matchup for anyone, but Zverev has never lost to him. Zverev also is looking very sharp this week. I tune in to watch his service games, and he serves 3 aces and the game is over in 60 seconds. He’s hitting the ball solid in the rallies and despite his predictable patterns, the grass makes his power very effective. Norrie basically needs to convert every break point he sees here, and isolate Zverev’s forehand. If he was losing to the bad version of Zverev, it’s going to be tough to snag him now that he’s finally sharp and Norrie is just exiting a slump. It feels like the ankle injury has been beneficial for Alex. It has let him re-climb the ladder, and having that taken away from him has made him actually hungry for each new rung. Wanting to win each match, each title, and compete hard at majors and get back to those big stages is giving Zverev new focus and fixing some of his leaks. He’s still full of himself, but if he keeps improving, it will at least make sense. Zverev in 4. I don’t think he can shut Norrie out completely, but his serving is too effective to see him crashing out here.

Fils vs Safiullin :

Safiullin on a run is someone no one on tour wants to play. He’s another Karatsev. He’ll lose first round every week, then look superhuman for a week and make a finals or win a title. Here he’s in a good service rhythm, and he’s had a decent draw. Cerundolo isn’t great on grass, and Machac is still trying to learn what his game looks like on the surface. Here Roman will have a big test, because after a disastrous clay swing, Arthur Fils has found his range. Fils is through after a withdrawal from Hurkacz. Fils was winning the match though, and he was looking dangerous offensively before they stepped on the court. Against Safiullin, there should be some heroic rallies, but I think the biggest key in the end will be Fils’ speed. Everyone Fils has played so far has won a set, and Safiullin’s offense is too powerful to get shut out. Fils is playing well, but he’s hyper-aggressive with his shot selection so Safiullin’s more stable approach will profit in those rough patches for Arthur. In a long match though, I think Fils is likely to win more of the scrambling rallies, and to be slightly fitter. Having already dealt wtih Hurkacz’s serve, I think he can handle Safiullin. Fils in 5.

Pouille vs De Minaur :

De Minaur is in scary form right now. There’s not a lot that Pouille can do that will really hurt him. I don’t mean for this to be a 2 sentence write-up, and Pouille’s run has been a much needed infusion of points and prize money, but honestly his draw has been fortuitous. He got a slightly less than 100% Djere in round one, Kokkinakis defeated FAA and then had to forfeit mid-match with Pouille, and Luca has been stuck at the Challenger level for a while. De Minaur is the ultimate gatekeeper because his speed let’s him run down most of his opponents shots during a rally, and his main focus is hitting to the open court or isolating his opponents backhand. To beat him you need to serve extremely well and you need a ton of power, but consistency is required also. Pouille can serve well, and he has a powerful forehand, but his backhand is not up to par and he has been starting slow in every match this week. If he’s going to win a set, it’s the second, but I think he gets worn down here. De Minaur in 3-4.

Rune vs Halys :

Rune dropped the first against Seyboth Wild, but he’s been playing well this week. He’s fast and agile enough to deal with the rough bounces grass involves, and he serves well and has enough skill to take advantage of some of his own. This next match seems like one he would win in round one, but Halys is not going to go down easily. In the second round, Halys played Khachanov. Karen is not the best on grass, but he’s a nightmare matchup for Halys. He serves big, and hits hard, and doesn’t make many errors in a rally. His height makes him a good returner, and so a server has to be nearly perfect to get through. Halys hung in there, and I think him and Rune will be very interesting. Rune is supposed to win this match, but it’s his first big test. Halys is serving extremely well and his return game is strong as well, so Rune basically needs his world class level of play to appear here. If he plays passive, Halys will punish him, but alternatively if he plays sharp and hits to the open court Halys’ movement (as a tall fellow) will be a little too slow to win this match. This comes down to strategy and execution. Both are playing well, so I would expect them to trade some sets. I haven’t watched enough Rune matches to really know what to expect out of him, but if these two play well Rune should win in 5.

Popyrin vs Djokovic :

Nice run here for Popyrin, and now he’ll get a big match on a big stage. Popyrin’s serve and power are good enough to hit past anyone, but the odds of him doing it for more than a set in a row are low. Errors make you lose to Djokovic, and once Novak locks in he stops missing and his opponents tend to force the issue. Supplying all the power is never a good formula in tennis. Fearnley played incredibly well against Djokovic, but I won’t overlook that he could have been out of there in 3 sets if he hadn’t broken back and played some huge points on his own serve. Djokovic in 3-4.

WTA Singles :

Swiatek vs Putintseva :

Swiatek’s failure to roll people on grass is a concern. This is a familiar foe, but the surface might level things out a bit. Putintseva has yet to win a set against Swiatek, but she’s on an absurdly good run on grass right now, winning 7 matches in a row. Putintseva is purely a baseliner, and her serve isn’t great. This means that Swiatek will have a long time to figure things out. Just because Iga struggled a little against Martic doesn’t mean she will here. Styles make matchups, and levels don’t carry over between matches. It’s weird to just expect someone to win every match, but at this point I don’t think Swiatek can win Wimbledon. This match is a really tough test for her, and I expect her to lose to Ostapenko the following round if she make it through. Putintseva will likely get as close to a set here as she ever will, and Swiatek will need to win in straight sets to really make me think she’s going to go deep in this tournament. Swiatek in 3.

Pera vs Ostapenko :

Pera is scary good on grass when she’s playing well, but she doesn’t play well for long. So far, she’s had to go to a deciding set in each round, but she’s been the better offense in the third. Against Ostapenko, I think she needs to go from 0-0. Jelena looks very solid this event, and the way she dismissed Tomljanovic in round one really makes me think she can go far. Pera’s serve and forehand need to be sharp here, but I think they will be. When she’s on offense, she can expose Ostapenko’s slightly slower than average lateral movement. The problem here I think will be how often Pera brings her best tennis. Ostapenko is a treacherous returner if your first serve percentage is too low, and 53% for the match (against Garcia) is probably going to spell Pera’s downfall. Ostapenko in 3.

Collins vs Haddad Maia :

There is a lot of buzz around Haddad Maia on grass right now, but I don’t think she’s shown me that level yet. She beat Frech, but that’s not a huge win. She then got a forfeit against Osorio, who isn’t really great at grass. Now she’s expected to do well against Collins, but Danielle’s resume right now is much better. Tauson and Galfi are dangerous, and neither could get much going against Collins. BHM also lost to Blinkova earlier this season on grass, and that’s a very similar player to Collins. Good power, aggressive returning, and a very good backhand make Danielle Collins a really tough out, and basically it would be the win of Haddad Maia’s season if she pulled this off. Since grass isn’t her best surface, Collins won’t be dishing a shutout here, but I like her overall level a bit more than Haddad’s. Collins in 2-3.

Krejcikova vs Bouzas Maneiro :

Volynets, like Kudermetova, pretty much won the match but lost the match. Krejcikova is still making errors, and her opponents are still getting looks at breaks and getting to serve for sets. Volynets really could not have been closer (as two tiebreakers would indicate), but Krejcikova’s power has made the shots she does land very effective. I feel conflicted here, because I would have Volynets beating Bouzas Maneiro, but I think JBM might have a chance here. Kudermetova hits huge but is very prone to errors. Volynets plays very consistent but she doesn’t have a big weapon. Bouzas Maneiro sort of sits in the middle. This run is a complete surprise, but her quality has been high.

JBM hits the ball hard when she has time, and she plays with great depth and location on offense. On defense, she’s stingy and uses her great movement and excellent body control to keep the rally going. The difference maker I think which may let her snag this win is that she serves a bit better than Volynets. Krejcikova will give you the chances, but you have to be able to close out because once she’s down, Barbora settles in and hits the court. The flipside of Krejcikova struggling to find the court is that she’s on a good run here. The quality of tennis she possesses is world class, and the deeper she gets in an event the more her confidence will raise. She let loose some roars last round so you know she’s really going all out here, and this should be a sneakily close match. I like Bouzas Maneiro to outlast her, but it feels like Krejcikova is in a good place in the draw and the match is on her racquet. Bouzas Maneiro in 3.

Rybakina vs Wozniacki :

Great win for Wozniacki, thwarting Fernandez’s run and setting up a fun match against Rybakina. True to form, Siegemund did not stop competing even though Rybakina came out in good form. Dropping a set to Siegemund may ring alarm bells for some, but Rybakina served so well overall that I think she’s fine here. As some of the other seeds start to look a little bit vulnerable, she would do well to get through here without worry. Wozniacki is a perfect look at whether Rybakina will win this tournament. She doesn’t have the firepower to really beat the good version of Rybakina, but she will make her play a ton of tennis. Wozniacki moves the ball excellent off both wings, and she has excellent patterns. As a former major winner who won without ever being the biggest hitter, aging a bit hasn’t really impacted her results on tour. She extends rallies and she keeps great depth on her groundstrokes, and it works. Tennis is simple sometimes, and Wozniacki makes it look that way. Against Rybakina, she’ll need some help. If Elena serves well, she wins. It’s a huge weapon, but mostly it’s the thing that Fernandez couldn’t do. Wozniacki put most of the serves back in play, and it was a long grind. Rybakina can be prone to making errors and crashing out unexpectedly earlier is one of her strategies, but she’s pretty technically sound so Wozniacki vs Rybakina I expect to look a bit like Swiatek vs Rybakina on hardcourt. Crosscourt trading, but one player hitting a bit bigger on every shot. Rybakina in 3.

Kalinskaya vs Samsonova :

Samsonova won the only meeting between these two, a hardcourt match in 2021. A lot has changed since then. Samsonova is still a top player, but she struggles to find simple wins. Kalinskaya used to be a solid prospect, but she’s really elevated her consistency and is having the best year of her career. This is a good opportunity for both.

What I’ve seen from Samsonova has been really impressive. When she lands her first serve, the second shot usually gets put away. She seems impatient at times which leads to errors, but her forehand is freezing people in place. The one data point I’d look at here is Samsonova’s loss to Siniakova. If you have the power to actually rush her, and the consistency to extend rallies, it seems like Samsonova can be outlasted. Since her serve and power are world class, I don’t really think it can happen quickly. I would expect this to go to a third, because both are in good form but neither are really grass-court experts. Kalinskaya in 3.

Jabeur vs Svitolina :

Some classic matchups here. Rybakina Wozniacki is great. Jabeur vs Svitolina is amazing. The only problem is they’re hard to predict. Both dealt with a young offense in the previous round. Jabeur endured a late surge from Montgomery, but looked pretty impressive. Svitolina got past Niemeier in straight sets, and has the game to really bother Jabeur. Anyone who can keep the ball coming back has a shot against Jabeur. She has every shot, but that leads to some poor decisions sometimes. She can be a bit impatient about ending points, and is fairly reactive to the outcome of points. So far on grass, she’s playing great, but this is the toughest match she’s had this week. Svitolina’s backhand is just plain better than Jabeur’s, and she’s a really tenacious defender. She’s made a career out of extending rallies long enough for her opponent to lose their peak, and then her bludgeon of a forehand starts to score. I expect Jabeur to win the early exchanges, and for Svitolina to be very competitive late in the second set. Whether she gets across the finish line there determines the outcome. For me, Jabeur wins in 2 or Svitolina wins in 3. I think it’s the former.

Dart vs Wang Xinyu :

JustPegulathings<3 is trending after another surprise loss sends a title contender out in an early round. There is no shame at all in losing to Wang, but Pegula seems to build momentum until the public is starting to buzz about her game and then boom, we get blindsided by an opponent who seems like her level is good enough to defeat. Wang inherits Pegula’s draw here, and she also gets a boost by avoiding Katie Boulter. I noted that Dart’s previous match against Boulter was closer than Boulter fans would enjoy, and this match was even closer. So close, that Dart seemed to win at the end and celebrate.

I don’t necessarily think Dart is sunk here either. Wang’s forehand is, again, a cannon. She has crazy amounts of power, but she makes errors also. Dart is adept at keeping the rallies going, and she’s playing at home. Not many players have packed in as many matches on grass this year as Dart (this will be her 11th), and she has a win against Wang in their only previous meeting (1-6, 7-6, 6-4 on hardcourt in 2022). I think this will be close, and a lot will depend on Wang’s percentages. 38-34 W-UF isn’t really going to cut it here. Pegula made 10 more unforced errors than winners in their last match, and Dart won’t give her that same courtesy. It’s weird for me to be thinking defense could beat offense on grass, but Dart is more tricky to beat than you’d expect. I think I’m going to eat it on this one because I’m trying to use their previous match as evidence. Dart beat her, but winning a second set tiebreaker doesn’t guarantee that you don’t get blitzed in set 1 against and have only a 50/50 chance at the end of the second. The home crowd though and a consistent defender in good form sounds like a spot where Wang would crash out. She’s won in 3 sets each round so far, so maybe I will change gears and take Wang in 3.