2024 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Round Three - Friday Matches

ATP Singles :

Sinner vs Kecmanovic :

Jannik Sinner makes these articles really easy. No matter how well someone plays, Sinner deals with it. Berrettini’s play in round two would have beaten most players in the tournament, but Sinner was able to navigate it and win in 4 sets. Despite the score being close, it always felt like Jannik was going to win. It’s cool to see the players we thought were going to fill the power vacuum actually do it. Sinner’s next round is against Kecmanovic which is a tough baseline battle but an arguably easier match. Kecmanovic pulled of a somewhat surprising win against Griekspoor in round two, and throughout the match it seemed like he was just a little more comfortable on offense. Tallon’s forehand seemed to falter in some stretches and Kecmanovic benefitted late in the fifth from some of the errors.

Sinner hasn’t lost to Kecmanovic in any of their previous meetings, he hasn’t lost a match yet on grass here, and he’s the most solid baseliner right now. Miomir is very good, but he’s just a little bit outmatched in every department. Sinner in 3-4.

Shapovalov vs Shelton :

Predicting who’ll be more reliable here is like guessing which goldfish will score higher on the SATs. Shapovalov had a very easy match against Altmaier, but the rain delays played an issue here. In round one, Altmaier was error prone, struggled with his timing on his forehand, and looked very out of sorts. The extra day or so and the extra practice sessions seemed to get him into decent form though. He competed even with Shapovalov in the last three sets of their match and came very close to pulling off the upset. Despite Shapo taking the long route to get through, I still like the level he’s playing at. He’s hitting his forehand solid, and his returning is decent. Shelton and Shapovalov are basically the same player at this point with the same issues, so this is a very interesting match.

Shapovalov came on tour and immediately got high level wins (including Nadal). He maintained that level for a bit, but soon unforced errors and unnecessary aggression started to cause slumps. He developed an issue with double faults, and the slump has lasted a few season now. Shelton had a similar arc, and while his results this year might not be bad enough to be considered a slump, he has become error prone and isn’t thriving at 250s. They aren’t the most important tournaments, but beating the players you’re supposed to is important. When you’re upset prone, everyone tries hard against you. Everyone believes. When you dismiss the Challengers, they fall out of their own games against you and force the issue, usually resulting in errors.

Shelton’s 5 set match with Bellucci in round one was a bad result, but his 5 set win over Harris was excellent. Lloyd hit over 30 aces in this match, and his delivery was excellent throughout. Shelton played near perfect in the third set on serve, and in the tiebreaker he made a single mistake, while Harris coughed up 3. Seeing Shelton get by with big serving and big hitting reminds me how well he can play, but expecting Harris to beat him makes me worry his run is over here. Shapovalov is not as good of a server as Harris, but his backhand and speed are more effective on offense. Harris did most of his work with his serve and forehand, but Shelton looked mostly safe in rallies. If Shelton carries over his 5th set level, it’ll be hard for Shapo to find breaks, but it’s hard to pick Ben here given how reliably he has struggled so far this event. Shapovalov in 4.

Dimitrov vs Monfils :

Shang was expected to give us a look at how well Dimitrov was playing, and he almost beat him. Shang on tour for a long time seems almost assured at this point. There are guys ranked just ahead of him who he’s a little better than, and he does it with consistent play so he’ll keep whatever ranking he can get (currently 91). Dimitrov will be happy to get through, but he has another exhausting defense to deal with this round. Monfils was down a few times against Wawrinka, but he got through in straight sets. Dimitrov and Monfils haven’t played in 8 years on tour, but Monfils won most of those. These are two wholly different players at this point, but Monfils should still be effective.

The big difference for me here is in offensive attempts. Dimitrov is much more likely to be looking to score on an average shot. Monfils tends to give up control of the rally and look to make a big forehand at a random time. He serves as well as Dimitrov, but Grigor is moving the ball more aggressively and I think he’s a little more able to go the distance here. Playing Shang will have him a little flat early perhaps, but it will also have him in a good rhythm from the baseline which is a key against a good defender like Monfils. No quick path to the finish for either of these players. Dimitrov in 4-5.

Struff vs Medvedev :

Struff’s forehand seemed to disappear at times on defense against Zhang, but other than that he played a solid match. He’s really efficient on serve, and the serve volley tactic is extremely effective against Medvedev. It’s almost a must if you want to beat him on a fast surface, because Daniil defends too well once they’re in a neutral rally to lose to Struff. Medvedev looked on his way out of the tournament against Muller, but the thing about a big upset is that it takes a long time. Medvedev takes hundreds of shots to beat, and Muller was able to get leads, but not keep them. Struff has a bigger serve and a lot of power, so he’ll fare a little better if he can get ahead of Medvedev. Their recent history doesn’t really help here. Medvedev won in 4 in Wimbledon 2021, but Struff beat him in straights in Halle a few weeks before that. This Struff seems better, and this Medvedev might be worse. I see this going a bit like Harris Shelton. One is way more suited to the conditions, but actually beating a player who’s better and more versatile than you is really tough over a long match. I expect Struff to win 2 sets here, but the third one is very up in the air. Medvedev seems vulnerable, but turning in the performance necessary isn’t guaranteed. Struff does lose to his unforced errors and if his forehand is a little off, Medvedev will notice that and isolate it. Struff in 4 or Medvedev in 5.

Alcaraz vs Tiafoe :

Tiafoe has been issuing some entertaining statements this week, and he said he’s excited to play Alcaraz. That’s fair, but I think this game might be a wake-up call. Tiafoe has been able to elevate and compete at this level in the past, but I think a lot of ground has been put between him and the top players on tour. I’m hoping that if he does get the beats here, it wakes him up and he trains for the next meeting. Tiafoe is right. He’s good enough to play against anyone, but lack of matchplay and less than stellar effort in minor events has left his technical skills in defensive points extremely lacking. If Murray is off the court and sends a lob up, it goes high, deep, and lands in the court. If Nadal gets caught off balance and slices the ball, the slice lands in the court. If Djokovic is moving wide and the pass is open on his backhand, he locates it where it needs to be. These are some of the best players to ever play the game, but that’s the level Tiafoe is aiming for. He loves playing big matches, and to do that you need to be sharp.

Here, I think Tiafoe’s serve and forehand are good enough to score. Alcaraz is not the most perfect returner, and grass is fast enough that being better from the baseline in neutral rallies sometimes doesn’t factor in all the time. It’s hard to see Alcaraz not finding his range also though, and his athleticism is at least as good as Tiafoe’s. This should be a ridiculously good match, and there are no bad outcomes for tennis. If Tiafoe snags him, it makes the rest of this tournament very interesting, and the USO conversation has to include Tiafoe which will motivate him to train. If Tiafoe loses to errors in key moments (what I expect), it will show him the new level of the top of the game and he can iron that stuff out and regroup for the North American tour. Alcaraz in 4, but for once I think a little chatter back and forth between the players is a good thing.

Nakashima vs Humbert :

This is a tricky one after the previous round. Thompson and Nakashima were somewhat expected to have a close match, but Nakashima smoked his boots. Brandon Nakashima has been a talented prospect for a while, but he’s never really been the type to win quickly. Here, he’s serving well and his run on grass the past month has seen him move up the ranking in a nice manner. All this gives him a good chance against Humbert, who is excellent but not terribly reliable. Humbert’s forehand on grass and ability to redirect quickly might expose Nakashima here. Brandon is serving well but I think Humbert at his best is a bit better on serve as well. He’s prone to disappearing within a match, but Humbert tends to expose slower players and Brandon is that. Since Humbert is not at his best and Nakashima is, I don’t think he can win quickly at all. This should be a very close match, but Humbert in 5 is what I expect.

Paul vs Bublik :

Hmm. Tommy Paul really almost lost to Virtanen last round, but it wasn’t a terrible result. The more concerning thing for me was that he was having tension issues with his racquet. This was likely because of Virtanen’s power, but it still is the sort of thing that you’d want sorted out before the match. If Paul is having trouble with his length here, he’s in trouble because Bublik is better than Virtanen. Similar serving ability for Bublik and Virtanen, but Bublik has way more ways to score when the ball comes back and his backhand is much better. His dropshots are world class and he has played Paul a handful of times so he’ll be familiar with the task at hand. After watching so many players struggle in an early round then crash out the next, Paul is at risk. Paul seems to be struggling with his consistency, and Bublik’s only win against him was their meeting on grass. Granted, it was 2021, but it’s half a data point.

Paul’s defense is good enough to upend Bublik, but Alex played great last round. This looks like a 50/50 matchup given their previous matches, but Paul should be able to outlast another offensive talent. Paul in 5.

Bautista-Agut vs Fognini :

A lot of tough matches today. RBA is playing well on grass right now and should win, but Fognini has just beaten Casper Ruud in a very solid performance. They haven’t played much recently, and barely ever on grass, but Fognini has a lot of wins against Bautista-Agut. That makes me think this could be closer than would be implied by RBA’s 4 set win against Sonego. Fognini has great power and an effective serve. He doesn’t go for huge shots at random moments, but he also does. It’s like watching Khachanov play, but with pace variation rather than a singular approach. RBA on the other hand is the classic Spanish federation player. His shot patterns and selection are near perfect, and his contact is solid. His inside out forehand is pretty flat, and it pays dividends on grass quite often. This is a spot neither player has been in in a while, and it’ll be interesting to see who rises to the occasion. I think RBA wins, but this really is up in the air. RBA in 4; he has seemed to elevate his game as matches went on, and Fognini’s win against Casper can partially be chalked up to Ruud’s struggles on grass.

WTA Singles :

Sun vs Zhu :

Good opportunity for both here. Lulu Sun was down a set against Starodubtseva, but her serving got her back into the match. As a lefty, the wide serve from the ad side just seems to get way wider than the same offering from righty’s. Starodubtseva played excellent, but she had some physical issues at the end of the second and in the third her movement was a bit limited. Sun will likely get into the top 100 after this result, and she’s pretty good on hardcourt also so she may stay there. In this next match, Sun’s forehand is the biggest shot on court. Zhu has won two good matches against Begu and Pavlyuchenkova, and since I was wrong about the outcome of both of them, it feels silly to pick against her again. But F it, let’s get silly. Zhu is not generally that great on great, but this run is impressive. I think she represents the same type of competition as Staro, a solid hitting baseliner who looks to overwhelm her opponent with pressure. That will work against Sun, but over a long match Lulu’s serve and forehand become really effective weapons. This is one I’m really not qualified to talk about since I got both Zhu losses wrong so far, but Sun in 3.

Raducanu vs Sakkari :

So spice. This round features some awesome matchups. Sakkari and Raducanu have not met on court since their first battle, a match at the US Open where both of their careers went in similar directions but not that week. When Raducanu played Sakkari at the semifinals of the USO, Sakkari was the only high seed left. She was the biggest name, and was expected to “finally” make her mark at a major. What ensued was a comprehensive straight set defeat. Raducanu played great, and players just couldn’t seem to read her shots. A big key that day was Sakkari freezing up on her offensive shot selection, but Raducanu’s backhand being so solid also gives her an edge against Sakkari. After that loss, Sakkari seemed to fall off the radar a bit. There have been a number of surprising losses since then, and while tennis is difficult, it feels like she sort of lost her mojo for a time.

Raducanu also fell off the map after her title win, but it was mostly due to injuries. She’s had trouble staying healthy, and at this point most of her unbeatable aura is a distant memory. This week she’s playing well, and she had good runs at Eastbourne and Nottingham so you can expect her to play well. With the home crowd at her back and Sakkari a little bit cognizant of their history, I think Raducanu can win again. She hits a bit more reliably on both wings than Sakkari, but the backhand difference is notable. Sakkari will need to serve very well, and try to keep her forehand on as many returns as she can. Raducanu is ballin, but her defense is not perfect. The first of a lot of exciting matches here. Raducanu in 2-3.

Kasatkina vs Badosa :

Kasatkina won 6-0, 6-0 in round 2, and yet Badosa is expected to give her a really hard time. Badosa beat Muchova in the first, and last round she ended the Brenda Fruhvirtova hype train. Brenda hit big, but she made too many unforced errors here. Maybe some of them were forced due to Badosa’s defense. Paola is hitting the ball really hard, and defending admirably. That’s exactly the formula she needs to beat Kasatkina. Darya is a tremendous player and doesn’t miss much, but she has trouble against similarly talented defenders if they hit bigger. Stephens gives her trouble at times, and Badosa’s serving looks just effective enough to maybe get her across the finish line here. Beating Kasatkina is a really difficult task and will take a ton of tennis, so this match is worth watching. That hypnotic sound of the ball constantly being struck, and 20+ shot rallies that end with shots rather than errors will be available here. I’m hyped. It’ll be Badosa’s best win since her return, but I think she’ll have a shot at winning here. Badosa in 3.

Yastremska vs Vekic :

Gracheva was outlasting Yastremska in almost every long point, but the match went on long enough that Dayana’s power became a factor. She served well, and Gracheva wore down. It could set up an exciting match against Vekic, but she’ll need a quicker start than she had last round. Vekic is playing great, and has been solid throughout this grass swing. She serves bigger than Yastremska, and even though she’s error prone in rallies against power, she’s a bit more consistent when she has time than Yastremska. Here, Yastremska is the Gracheva, and Vekic just needs to maintain a good serve % and minimize her unforced errors. Tricky spot, but Vekic in 2.

Paolini vs Andreescu :

I like Andreescu here, but I’ve been backing her all tournament. Her major runs are still fresh in my mind, and every time she hits a good shot, my brain says “SHE’S BACK!” Last round she was just a bit stronger than Noskova, which yielded errors. She’s the bigger hitter against here, but Paolini is the fake test for her this week. Paolini is a great defender, and she’s not the best on grass but she’s won a few matches in the past two weeks. Andreescu’s stamina and shot selection will be tested. I think she’s capable, but it’s a big question mark. Can Bianca played 2 hours of tennis? Is her serve/power big enough to win this quickly? WILL SHE EVER RETURN MY EMAILS? Andreescu in 2. Paolini is good but these conditions suit Andreescu.

Kostyuk vs Keys :

Kostyuk and Keys actually played last year at Wimbledon, and Keys won comfortably. Kostyuk was down a set and a break against Saville, so she doesn’t look primed to reverse that result. Big hitting here, but Keys in 2.

Shnaider vs Navarro :

Shnaider “fatigue” concerns can be put aside. She left Stephens on 1,1 and played excellent. This match against Navarro is a rematch of Bad Homburg a few weeks ago, where Shnaider won in 3. Shnaider’s run has been immensely impressive, and the more comfortable and confident she gets, the better she plays. While she’s hitting a new peak, Navarro is finding her best game on grass. Osaka was a really difficult test, and Navarro navigated it perfectly. This match is hard to gauge. Both players have a win on grass, and while Shnaider won both meetings this year, they were both 3 set matches. It’s not a huge leap to expect this to go to overtime also, but Shnaider’s offense is legit scary. If Navarro can slow her down, she can win. Emma is a bit faster around the court and her backhand is more versatile. She serves well also, but overall Shnaider’s forehand is the hammer of Thor out there. This whole round is better for watching than predicting, but if I have to guess I’ll take Navarro here. Her ability to defend and familiarity with Shnaider should be a factor. Navarro in 3.

Gauff vs Kartal :

NO! I don’t wanna see Kartal go! Sonay Kartal has put on some inspiring performances. She serves well, has great power, and plays an aggressive game. If Gauff were playing poorly, I could see her doing well. Honestly, as solid as Kartal is, I don’t see her getting blown off the court, but Gauff’s defense is a big step up from everyone Kartal has played so far. Burel is a great defender without much offense, Cirstea is a huge offense without much consistency. Gauff is more than capable on offense, and is one of the best baseline defenders on tour. I don’t see a real path to victory for Kartal here, but she’s good enough to win a few games each set. It feels like once she gets down a break things may unravel though. Her confidence on court has dictated her shot selection a bit. Gauff in 2.