2024 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Round One - Tuesday Matches

WTA Singles :

Swiatek vs Kenin :

Pretty dirty start for both players but Kenin’s results since her peak haven’t been good enough to avoid these situations. Kenin’s backhand is effective on grass and her spot serving can be too, but she isn’t consistent enough to shut Swiatek out and that’s what it’s going to take to beat her now. Swiatek’s game on grass is not as strong as other surfaces but she is still expected to beat most players in the draw. Swiatek in 2.

Jones vs Martic :

Jones seems to pop up once a year and win a few matches in Europe. She has real strong groundstrokes and half a chance at winning this. She withdrew from her last match prior to Wimbledon though, so her fitness is up in the air. Martic has a good game for grass but she doesn’t usually take the racquet out of her opponent’s hands. Her backhand slice works well but it’s a safe target for opponents. Her serve and forehand are the main weapons but overall her game is a bit delicate at times. Playing a very high skill approach means frustrating errors, so Martic’s ability to navigate the crowd here will play a role. Without knowing how Jones is feeling, Martic is the favorite here. Martic in 3.

Putintseva vs Kerber :

Putintseva just won Birmingham, so I don’t expect Kerber to win here. Kerber is capable of a high level but she seems to only play well for a week or two each year now. Putintseva even in a struggle is able to grind a match out, and I think her fitness is a little better than Angelique’s at this moment. Putintseva in 2.

Stakusic vs Siniakova :

Very unlucky draw for Stakusic. Marina’s game will have her on tour in no time at all, but Siniakova is one of the best grass-court players right now. Her power and ability to redirect up the line off both wings are proving to be a problem for her opponents, and Katerina is sneaky quick on defense also. Should be a close one but Siniakova in 2-3.

Garcia vs Blinkova :

Blinkova played really well against Tomova last week and Garcia hasn’t played since RG. It’s hard to see Garcia playing her best here. Her serve should let her make an impact, but Blinkova’s serving is decent enough (right now) to keep Garcia from dominating return games like she usually does. I just really liked Blinkova’s commitment to hitting hard last week and she could easily have been in the semifinal if Tomova didn’t play some excellent service games late. Blinkova in 2-3.

Potapova vs Pera :

Adding up stats here it seems like they’re fairly even on serve and on the forehand side, but Potapova’s backhand is much more aggressive and she hits down the line extremely well. The best way to stop a lefty is with a great two-hander, and Potapova has one. Neither played is really a grass-court terror, but Potapova in 2. Potapova’s stats when she wins the first set are extremely impressive.

Dodin vs Snigur :

I like Snigur here but Dodin’s game is exactly what thrives on grass. She has a huge serve and giant power. In the past Snigur has beaten some big names for 2/3 of the match but late in the proceedings her serve/offense can falter a bit. Part of this is how flat she hits. It creates some great shots, but as fatigue sets in the timing and torque that it takes to do that well can create errors and deceleration. Dodin hasn’t been playing so, Snigur in 2.

Ostapenko vs Tomljanovic :

Ostapenko hasn’t been great so far in this grass swing and this is an opponent she has had trouble with before. Their AO meeting this year went to three, and Tomljanovic beat her before at this event (though she lost in straights in Eastbourne the following year). Losses to Cocciaretto and Tauson make me think Tomljanovic has a shot here because those are two players with big power and a straightforward approach. Ajla does exactly that. She hits hard and stays in crosscourt patterns. I expect Ostapenko to get rushed here, and it’ll depend entirely on her 1st serve percentage. Above 55, I think she gets through because Ajla’s returning isn’t automatic yet. If she struggles to score quickly though, I think Tomljanovic’s weight of shot will create errors. Tomljanovic in 3.

Collins vs Tauson :

Third meeting for these two, and both have gone to Collins. Danielle didn’t play any warmup events, but Tauson lost both of hers to Avanesyan (not great) and Niemeier (acceptable). I think Tauson can get off to a quick start, but Collins should find her game and win. They’re a bit similar but Collins defends better. Collins in 3.

Sherif vs Galfi :

Galfi serves huge and hits the ball huge. There’s really no reason she can’t win this match, and she outlasted Danilovic nicely in qualifying, winning a match in two that many were sure would go three. Sherif is not great on grass, and it’s really just her defense that will cause issues here. If Galfi’s offense is legit, she should win in two. The problem has been injuries and inconsistency though, so any early round for Galfi is a bit scary.

Osorio vs Davis :

On paper, Osorio does everything better than Davis and is a bit younger. Experience on grass is a big thing though, and Davis has won a lot of matches on the surface. When Davis is on (excuse the comparison), she’s a lot like Diego Schwartzman or a tinier version of Halep, so her vs Osorio should feature a lot of breaks of serve and extended rallies. The good Davis is rarely seen these days, but this might be a good draw for her. Davis in 2.

Frech vs Haddad Maia :

Whenever BHM wins, we go “oh she’s good at this”. Last year she had a great grass season and we said “oh right, she’s a grass-court terror”. Before that she had won on clay and we said “she’s a clay specialist”. The story before that was “she’s actually better on hardcourt than clay”. The point is, she’s equally excellent on every surface and equally bad on them also. It seems like her game is based around being consistent and hitting big, but she can crash out randomly against lower tier players. Maybe professional tennis is just hard. Bella has lost 2 out of her 3 grass matches this month, but they were to solid players which is a bit better than Frech losing to Bronzetti and Osorio. BHM in 2.

Kudermetova vs Krejcikova :

Krej has won their meetings on clay, and Kudermetova on hardcourt. I think this pattern continues with Kudermetova getting a slight boost from the fast condiitons. Krejcikova has been losing to unforced errors for the past few seasons, and it’s odd that here she’s the more consistent player. Veronika smashes away at anything that comes her way, so wild scoreline changes and lopsided sets are possible. I think in the end she has a better serve though. Kudermetova in 3.

Volynets vs Carle :

Volynets has become one of the most solid baseliners on tour. Her doubles experience has given her comfort using slices on both wings and she’s just in a great rhythm defending to the wings. I’m a big fan of both these players, but Carle is a bit too defensive to really score on Volynets here, and Katie has shown the ability to move the ball when she does gain control. She never scores with a single shot, but give her 2-3 swings and you find yourself in terrible position. Volynets in 2.

Bucsa vs Bogdan :

These two won’t budge off the baseline, so this should be over quick. Neither one is that good on grass, but Bogdan is a bit more willing to change gears with her shot selection if things aren’t going well. I think Bucsa still needs another year to figure out what her game looks like. Bogdan in 2.

Bouzas Manerio vs Vondrousova :

Vondrousova has won this event, and she’s healthy and in halfway decent form for this one. It’s not really clear how far she can go, but the first two rounds should be simple for her. Vondrousova in 2.

Rybakina vs Ruse :

Tough opener for Rybakina who had to withdraw from her last match against Azarenka. Rybakina’s health has been a slight issue this season, so playing a qualifier in good form is a quick look at whether she’s a contender in this event. Ruse was one of the most impressive but inconsistent prospects on tour. She has a great forehand and when she’s on she finds the next offensive shot with great creativity, but errors and inconsistency abound and she’s had a lot of tough draws. This is another one. Rybakina in 2-3.

Siegemund vs Baindl :

Siegemund has won almost every set these two have played. Baindl is a good defender, but stylistically these two have a similar approach but Laura hits the ball much harder. Siegemund in 2.

Bronzetti vs Fernandez :

Fernandez coming off a finals run should take care of this easily, but I feel like she won’t. Bronzetti doesn’t have the serving to win outright, but she has a great backhand and that usually helps a bit against a lefty. Anyone trying to beat Bronzetti quickly usually winds up in a 7-5 set situation they do not enjoy, but Fernandez’s stamina and baselining is pretty good at the moment. For me, she’s a bit like Dimitrov, because at any moment she can lose, but when she’s on you say “she could win the title”. Fernandez in 2-3.

Kalinskaya vs Udvardy :

Kalinskaya started off slow on grass but won a few matches recently. Udvardy was a bit of a shock in qualifying, as she usually wins mostly on clay. Since she’s a baseliner, Kalinskaya has an advantage here. You need big power to bother Kalinskaya. AK in 2.

Bouzkova vs Riera :

Bouzkova hasn’t dominated by any means on grass, but Riera hasn’t played since the French. She’s good enough to win, but it would be a huge surprise. Bouzkova in 2.

Kalinina vs Avanesyan :

Kalinina’s huge serve and power should get her through here. Avanesyan hasn’t done much on grass, and despite her admirable defending grass is the wrong conditions for her to really be automatic about breaking serve. Kalinina in 3. It should be straights but I feel like she has trouble moving quick enough even on hardcourt and grass won’t help.

Masarova vs Samsonova :

Samsonova’s first round losses make me grumble, but she remains the favorite in almost every match she plays. Masarova has a big serve and nice power, but Samsonova’s overall game is much better and she can match the serving. Samsonova in 2.

Jabeur vs Uchijima :

Ons Jabeur at Wimbledon is a problem. She has such deft touch and a big serve, and at this point enough time has passed since her finals fumble that she should play free once again. She’ll need to, as her second round matchup (Gadecki or Montgomery) is a big problem. Uchijima is solid but she tends to win more against players she hits bigger than, and Jabeur has easy repeatable power in both swings. Jabeur in 2.

Montgomery vs Gadecki :

Ha! You think I know who wins this? I don’t. Montgomery is having a great 2024, and her grass game is the best I’ve seen so far (from her) which is a nice surprise. If you haven’t seen her, she’s a fast lefty with a beautiful forehand. She’s newly out of the juniors so her technical skills and shot selection are lovely to watch, and she’s been winning nonstop on grass. Enter Gadecki. Last year at the US Open qualifiers Gadecki was hitting the ball so hard that I heard it over the match I was watching. She reminds me of a Samsonova/Rybakina combo. Huge power, but good movement for her height (which is unlisted on the WTA site for some reason). She loses to unforced errors at this point, but this week she’s been in good form. This is a very close contest, and I’m expecting it to go three sets. I think Montgomery is a bit more stable with her level throughout a match, and that should be a key. Definitely worth tuning in for this one, as the winner will give Jabeur a very tough time. Montgomery in 3.

Golubic vs Niemeier :

Ha. Another one I have no clue on. Both these players are seemingly resurrecting their careers over the past month, with Golubic racking up 5 wins over 9 matches and Niemeier getting what feels like her first three wins of the year in the first rounds of Bad Homburg, S’Hertogenbosch, and Surbiton. Niemeier’s progression in the next rounds has been stagnant, but the tour is tough and her level has been good. Good power and a nice serve let her really dominate at times, so this should be fun. Golubic is a bit small, but she has a very good game. The way she plays makes it seem like she trains with big hitters, because a lot of her shots are designed to stay out of trouble and when she’s on offense she goes very big. One of the last solid one-handed backhands on the women’s tour will be on display here, and I think she’s actually a bit too consistent for Niemeier. Golubic in 3.

Linette vs Svitolina :

Finally a simple one. checks h2h Nvm. Linette beat Svitolina before on grass, so despite Svitolina being a solid favorite here and enjoying a much better year than Magda, this could be tricky. No real way to discount a server who has a history of winning long matches, but Svitolina in 2 close sets.

Boulter vs Maria :

Maria is having a Mannarino stretch here. She’s supposed to be a really tough out on grass, but her draws have been tough and she just hasn’t won much. This is a terrible first round also, because Katie Boulter has a big enough serve to negate Maria’s slice returns. Maria slices almost 100% of shots in a tough match, but this patch has seen her try to hit over the ball more just to get things going. I think she needs to revert back to the slices here, as her only shot against Boulter is to wear down her legs. Katie is the better player and is having a career year, but she’s played a lot of tennis in the past few weeks (defended a title in Nottingham). Boulter in 2. I can hype Maria up but Katie is playing with great composure and a legit offense is tough to stop on grass.

Dart vs Bai :

I like Dart here, but it’ll be close. Dart has played a lot of close matches against good competitors in the past few weeks (including a three setter with Boulter), but she hasn’t gotten across the finish line. Bai isn’t at her best on grass, but she’s adapting slowly and managed to qualify. Bai at this point is bisecting the tour. She can beat everyone outside the top 100, but against the better caliber players she’s not the bigger hitter anymore so things are close. Both are very consistent here, but Dart will the crowd at her back and bit more experience. Dart in 3.

Wang Xinyu vs Tomova :

Wang has edged Tomova out in a few close matches, and she might do it again. Both have a great serve and forehand, but Wang hits slightly bigger. That means in the crosscourt exchanges, she’s the one who can win more points without incurring risk. I loved Tomova’s level against Blinkova and Vekic, but it seems like a bigger hitter is a difficult equation for someone who’s hitting big. I don’t see any chance of Wang winning quickly here; Tomova is playing great ball and serving well. Someone in 3, I guess Wang (though I think I’m slightly biased because I just saw Tomova play).

Krueger vs Pegula :

Ashlyn Krueger still has a year or two more before she gets big results on tour, but getting into the top 100 is a great result, and she’s already starting to score big wins. Beating Pegula on grass feels out of the question, but Pegula loves to infuriate her fans with puzzling struggles in early rounds so we’ll see. Pegula in 2.

ATP Singles :

Hurkacz vs Albot :

Albot played well in qualifying and he’s a veteran of the tour. For a little guy, he serves well and closes to net in a timely manner. He’s up against it here playing Hubert Hurkacz but Albot has found a way to break server against big servers like Isner in the past, so I don’t think he’ll get totally shut out. Hurkacz can throw in a slow start occasionally and his timing can be off in an early round, but he’ll have ample time here for his serve to drag him through. Despite worries, I also think that Hurkacz’s game has shown remarkable improvement this year in terms of rally tolerance and contact point. I see him training often with the tiny racquet in practice and it seems like it’s helping. Hurkacz in 3-4.

Fils vs Stricker :

Fils is a bit impatient on the court but he’s playing well in this grass swing, and he beat Machac and Koepfer in Halle before losing the Zverev in 3. That level will get him past Stricker here, who is newly back to the tour and not yet at his best. I think Stricker’s peak is higher than Fils because he makes fewer errors, but that level hasn’t appeared yet. Fils in 4.

Murray vs Machac :

Murray remains fun to watch, but his movement has gotten a bit too slow for the tour. Machac is a particularly tough matchup for him here because he has a laser of a forehand and pulls the trigger early and often in points. You can beat him with consistency and defense, but Murray isn’t able to run the sprints anymore to utilize his solid tennis base. Machac in 3.

Safiullin vs Cerundolo :

Safiullin is priced to win here, but neither of these players have done anything on grass yet this year. Cerundolo’s court positioning isn’t ideal for grass, and Safiullin serves a lot bigger than him. The problem with Safiullin is he plays his absolute best unreal level of tennis two weeks a year, and does nothing the rest and looks like a completely different player. Safiullin taking a set off Berrettini was good, but only taking a set off Maroszan was bad. I’ll still side with Roman here, he’s the bigger offense. Safiullin in 4.

Auger-Aliassime vs Kokkinakis :

Felix on grass can beat anyone. His serve is excellent and he moves around the court effortlessly. At the same time, he’s capable of losing to anyone, and he just withdrew against Koepfer in Halle and his only prep was Boodles where he played Diego and Coric (this is not prep and neither of these guys are a threat in this event). Kokkinakis will test FAA’s returning, and both of these guys have similar approaches. Huge serve, and look for a big forehand. Both backhands are fairly pedestrian, and unforced errors on that wing are the general reason they lose. Should be fun, but FAA in 4-5 is the expected outcome. Majors give him extra time to find his range, and his serve alone can get him through most players on grass.

Pouille vs Djere :

I like Pouille here, as he looked excellent in qualifying. Pouille has been stuck off tour for a while, but he still has excellent bend on his serve and a powerful forehand. He’s quick, aggressive, and since he already did a lot on tour it feels like he’s freerolling from here on out. Djere can be problematic for anyone to play but he hasn’t been that active and he’s not having a great season. If Pouille’s stamina holds up, he should win in 3-4.

Munar vs Harris :

This is supposed to be a great draw for Harris, but I’m a little worried here. Munar is thought of as a clay-courter, but he has turned in some good performances on faster surfaces. He beat Isner at Wimbledon last year, and he played Norrie to 5 sets the year before. In short, this may be closer than people think. Billy “Everybody Eats” Harris has set the grasscourt world on fire this past month, winning a ton of matches against the likes of Cobolli, Perricard, Etcheverry, Fonseca. He’s played 15 matches, so fatigue may set in at a certain point, but he’s had a few days of rest here. Harris serves well and has a heavy forehand, so he’ll be able to score on Munar. Jaume at times struggles to find offense, and on grass it’s tough to buy time with the usual moonballs and slices. This is probably the biggest test Harris has had recently, but the win against Cobolli is exactly the level of play he needs to get through here. Harris in 4-5.

Duckworth vs De Minaur :

Duckworth suffered a surprise straight set loss in the final rounds of qualifying, but he got in as a lucky loser. It isn’t a great draw, but being in the draw is worth some $ and points so I’m sure he’s happy. Alex De Minaur is a more capable offense than Duckworth, and he can outlast him in long rallies as well. It’s a bad matchup for Duckworth since he usually since by outworking his opponent and pushing the pace. De Minaur in 3-4.

Rune vs Kwon :

Kwon apparently just plays majors now. I like the strategy, and he seems to show up and play effective tennis so Rune will be tested early here. Add in that Kwon won both of their previous meetings (5 sets in AO 2022 and a 3 set win on clay in 2021) and it becomes a tricky spot for Rune. Kwon hasn’t played a match on grass since 2022, so Rune’s team should feel halfway confident in this spot. Hurlingham is just exhibition matches, but he did get to hit with Khachanov and Norrie, so Rune won’t be frozen in this spot. Rune in 4.

Jubb vs Seyboth Wild :

Paul Jubb got a well deserved wildcard here, although last week’s result in Mallorca was the main reason it looks deserved. He managed to make the semifinals, including getting a win over Nadal in round one and a win against Shelton in the quarters. Jubb has done well in the past, but the results on tour are what really matters and getting some momentum is big for him. At 289 in the rankings, he won’t be getting into any ATP events, but he can make the argument to get some wildcards, and if Billy Harris wins his first round he’ll make the top 100 and Jubb won’t have to compete with him for the opportunity. Jubb has a big first serve, good athleticism, and his forehand is solid. Offensively, he’s really ready for pro tennis. Seyboth Wild is capable of competing at this level, but his play so far has been mediocre. He beat McCabe, and lost quickly to Fritz. His past results at Wimbledon are okay, having bested Herbert, but right now it seems like Jubb is a little better and playing in conditions he prefers. Jubb in 4-5.

Halys vs Eubanks :

Eubanks looked like he could potentially win Wimbledon last year at times, but this season hasn’t been great. As a result, he needs a big Wimbledon to keep his ranking from dropping. This section of the draw isn’t great for a server though. First he’ll have Halys, who can match him in the serving department and might be more consistent from the baseline. After that he’ll have Khachanov, whose height and power (and ability to serve big) make him a nightmare matchup for servebots. If he avoids Khachanov, that means Karatsev will have pulled off a major upset, and since Karatsev stands in and blocks returns well, it will be a tricky day for Eubanks.

Halys is a tough opponent here, and he finished qualifying by beating a dangerous playing (Zhukayev) in straight sets. I think most people following qualifying thought Beibit would play Hayls close after beating Rodionov and Medjedovic, but he never really got looks at breaking. Zhukayev saw just 4 breaks point chances in the match, and only converted one. For that reason, I think Eubanks is in trouble here. He has a lot of pressure on him, he’s not playing his best tennis, and though these are familiar conditions, his opponents are now wary of his ability. Expect a handful of tiebreakers here in a very close match. For me, I think Halys will be slightly more steady on serve over a long match. Halys in 4.

Karatsev vs Khachanov :

Khachanov hasn’t done anything on grass, and Karatsev has only played one match (losing in three to Duckworth). For me, Karatsev’s peak sounds better, but Khachanov has been a consistent producer at majors for many seasons now and he’s able to negate some of Aslan’s power. Karatsev (like Safiullin), plays incredible tennis two weeks a year and looks like Popyrin the rest. Khachanov in 4. I expect Karatsev to win one of the first two set and fade from there as stamina becomes a factor.

Nardi vs Etcheverry :

We’re into a very tricky section of the draw here. With Popyrin/Monteiro waiting, there are a lot of points up for grabs here for anyone who finds their best tennis. Etcheverry has done okay on grass but he isn’t exactly dominant. His big groundstrokes can result in errors when the ball bounces poorly, and some of the outside courts at Wimbledon are already a bit chipped up due to qualifying. He just played two matches and though he lost both, 3 sets with Shang and Harris isn’t exactly bad. Nardi has been in a slump since his big Djokovic win, but a win against Goffin and a close match with Hijikata are good signs. Basically here, neither is playing poorly, but crossing the finish line seems to be the issue. I would guess that Etcheverry will have an easier time late in a match, as stamina and power have been hallmarks of his game. Etcheverry in 5.

Popyrin vs Monteiro :

Monteiro is good on grass but tends to lose at Wimbledon. Popyrin is inconsistent and his backhand is weak, so Monteiro’s approach as a lefty will be useful. Still, Popyrin’s serve is a big weapon on grass, and this is a match you expect him to win. Popyrin in 4.

Fearnley vs Moro Canas :

Despite having a mostly clay-court background, Moro Canas qualified for Wimbledon with a series of excellent wins against Fonseca, Gigante, and Dzumhur. The trouble with expecting his run to continue is that Fearnley has been winning at a slightly higher level. In the past month, he has defeated Shang, Jubb, and Lajal. He looks to be a really good prospect, and British tennis is just churning out winners right now in this grass swing so it’s an exciting Wimbledon. I’m honestly not familiar with these players aside from seeing their results over the past year, so it’s hard to point to exactly what will decide this match. I like Fearnley in 4, because despite Moro Canas good run, it’s against slightly less experienced competition and Fearnley is beating guys who have won on tour recently. Very possible this goes either way, but one side is almost 100% assured to perform.

Kopriva vs Djokovic :

Kopriva is a great warmup match for Novak. Djokovic played a practice set recently against Medvedev, and he looked decent. It’s very obvious he’s not trying to move quickly to either side to take it easy on his knee, but he didn’t look slow either. Kopriva can bring some heat on serve and he has good power, so with Djokovic a little off on returns, this could be closer than bettors will enjoy. Not upset close, but the possibility of Djokovic starting slow and dropping a set or playing a close one is there. In the end, Djokovic serves too well to lose early in this event. His recovery from meniscus surgery lends some question marks here, but he has a pretty good draw and he did seem to be winning his practice match the other day against Medvedev. Djokovic in 3-4.