2024 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Round One - Monday Matches
Wimbledon puts the draws up a day later than most majors so I’m splitting the days to get these up early. Tuesday will hopefully go up tomorrow night. I’m rushing a little bit, but sometimes there’s not a lot to say for certain matchups. The grass season is a very strange time and there isn’t a lot of great data go go off of aside from the few weeks of warmup events. Since these are usually dominated by lower-tier players, much of the expectations stay the same for big names even though they’ve likely not played much or dropped an unexpected match. The approach is generally to use the warmups to get court-time and matchplay, but not to risk injury. On grass, knee and abdominal issues are pretty common due to slips, so going deep in a tournament can inadvertently hinder your chances at Wimbledon. Only Berrettini (Stuttgart finalist) and Sinner (Halle champion) really went deep from the list of actual contenders, and luckily they both came through unscathed.
Grass is a unique surface where there aren’t enough for anyone to really become a specialist, so the players whose games adapt well get the benefits. It will sound monotonous if I just note who serves slightly better, but that is largely what dictates grass-court matchups at the lower levels. Aside from serves, flat hitters also get a small boost. The ball already slides on grass, so players like Kukushkin and De Minaur are able to make the ball dip nicely. The off-forehand is a very effective tool, as is pretty evident by Raonic’s success in the past few weeks. The big thing I think grass rewards is athleticism. This is kind of a vague term, but on a court where constant errant bounces and slippery conditions for footwork are in play, being able to quickly and fluidly adjust your swing and shot are a major key. Players who have excellent body control like Novak Djokovic are able to make these shifts, and it helps them extend rallies and force their opponents to go for a bit more. Players like Frances Tiafoe are able to use their strength and agility to navigate the slippery surface, and change their swings last minute in order to create what’s possible rather than what they intend. I know you’re thinking “But blurry, hasn’t Tiafoe been in a slump? Didn’t Kukushkin already lose in qualifying? Is Raonic even in the tournament?”, and well, yes. But I’m not rewriting it.
Sinner vs Hanfmann :
Hanfmann started off the grass season sharp and I had high expectations for him against a slumping Tiafoe in Stuttgart. He went 0/11 on break points in that match and since then he’s looked less than stellar. Sinner winning Halle is really exciting because grass wasn’t expected to be a surface he dominated this year, and he looked great. Djokovic sometimes hits a level where it doesn’t seem like he’s concerned with ending rallies, and he’s just enjoying playing tennis. His ballstriking is pure and he hits whatever shot is right rather than trying to end the point in one swing. That is what Sinner displayed in Halle, so it’s very likely he winds up in the semifinals here. He’s probably the best returner on tour right now, and he’s figuring out how to navigate on grass quickly. His quarter is wide open since Shelton is the other big seed (Ben has been struggling on grass thus far), and his hardest match will be Berrettini in the second round. Hanfmann is a good server, but his movement is a little slow for grass. Sinner in 3.
Berrettini vs Fucsovics :
Fucsovics can pop up and pull off some big upsets, but his game has always been hindered by a slightly more defensive approach than needed. He has a decent slice backhand but it becomes a safezone for his opponent at times, and his two-hander isn’t really going to score on its own. Fucsovics hasn’t played since Roland Garros so it feels like here he’s just picking up a check. I wouldn’t expect him to get beat badly by most opponents, but Matteo should be able to win in straights. They have a similar game, but Berrettini serves much bigger, his forehand is much faster, and he loves this surface. Berrettini in 3-4.
Nagal vs Kecmanovic :
Kecmanovic won a few matches in Eastbourne, and Nagal has opted to go back to playing clay.
Kecmanovic in 3.
Carreño-Busta vs Griekspoor :
Bought my mom a house, spent the rest on PCB. It’s great to see Pablo back on tour, and he’s somehow one of the tour’s most experienced players despite still being in his 20s. An early outting against RCB showed that Pablo is in decent form, but not really ready to start winning tough matches yet. Griekspoor is having a tremendous season and he’s one of the more solid baseliners in the middle tier on tour. PCB’s comeback is almost guaranteed to materialize at some point, but it seems he’s not there yet. Griekspoor in 4.
Jarry vs Shapovalov :
Pretty fun matchup here. Jarry is a huge server with great power if he has time. On grass, he won’t. Shapovalov is one of the most exciting phenoms the tour has produced in a long time, but he’s been outcompeted by his contemporaries and is starting to seem like a disappointment, despite still being able to play some high level tennis. Shapo bothered to show up to Surrey and Stuttgart, and while he only won one match, he should be sharp enough here to pressure Jarry. I like Shapovalov to be slightly more capable of breaking here despite having a worse serve. Denis can double-fault away key games, but Jarry’s movement on grass is not great and I think Shapo can find his backhand in the long run. Despite the lack of prep for Jarry, Shapovalov is not the guy to reliably dismiss someone quickly. There will be ample chances for both to win sets. Shapovalov in 5.
Altmaier vs Fery :
Altmaier also opted to play clay leading up to Wimbledon, but he still should win this match. Arthur Fery is a good prospect, but he hasn’t won matches yet on grass. The home crowd and a weak opponent should help him, but his losses recently have been mostly 6-3/6-2 type sets. It shows that he isn’t really adept at holding serve at the higher level yet. Altmaier will struggle to keep the ball in play so this could be tricky, but he is just playing tennis overall at a higher level right now than Fery. Altmaier in 3-4.
Harris vs Michelsen :
Lloyd Harris seems to always be good enough to win on tour, but he’s only active for a month or two each year at the tour level. He has a big serve, a heavy forehand, and a defensive slice backhand. He’s a tremendous athlete, and most of his winning comes from defending and outlasting his opponent, which is doable when you have a big serve to rely on. Everything about his game is improved a little on grass, so he’s a slight favorite against Michelsen. Alex has the big serve and power you need to win on grass, but he’s not there yet. I don’t like his movement on grass, so while his baseline game is a big more versatile (more varied backhand in terms of shot location/ability to execute down the line), I think Harris should outlast him. Harris in 5.
Shelton vs Bellucci :
Bellucci qualifying was a big moment for him. He would be an underdog against most opponents, but here he has a unique opportunity. I mentioned last year that I was seeing some parallels to Shapovalov in Shelton, and they have continued. He has started to be a bit careless with the ball at the lower levels, and unexpected losses to weaker players have started to pile up. Shelton still has a tremendous serve and a huge forehand, but his willingness to pull the trigger from difficult positions has made him inconsistent, and his returning and backhand aren’t really as dangerous as they could be.
Overall, it’s fair to say he’s in a slump, but only because his initial impact on tour was so huge. It’s hard to continue that level of result with the depth on tour. This happens with a lot of junior phenoms; they arrive on tour, they notch a bunch of huge wins and results, and then coaches and players get familiar with their games and the struggle begins. Big wins at majors and M1000s also make it harder for players to grind at the lower tier, but those big wins aren’t guaranteed with the depth on tour and the stylistic matchups that can prove troublesome in any random draw. Shelton is still capable of beating anyone, but trying to hit big winners on his forehand wing has cost him some matches lately that I think he could have grinded through.
With Shelton still figuring out grass, and Bellucci having won several rounds of qualifying, this could be tricky. Two lefty’s is always a fun matchup, but here I think Bellucci is slightly outgunned. Shelton did lose to Paul Jubb, but Jubb is a grass specialist at this point and Bellucci’s run came at the expense of claycourters like Adjukovic and Zapata Miralles. At this point, Shelton is wholly unreliable, but he should win in 4.
Dimitrov vs Lajovic :
Lajovic is not great on grass, and Dimitrov is having the best year of his career in terms of consistency on court. Barring injury, Dimitrov should win this in 3.
Garin vs Shang :
I’d only want tickets to this if I brought ample sandwiches. Garin is a clay-court wall who somehow serves well on fast surfaces and goes on a few runs each year. He was pretty dominant in qualifying, and he’s at least good enough to hang with Shang in rallies. Shang has been grinding his way onto the tour for 2-3 years now, and he has finally arrived. The hallmark of his game is his speed and his commitment to hitting another solid shot. Even though he plays a bit like Nishioka, Shang hits every ball bigger. When he’s on the run, he makes sure to go to a safe but aggressive target. Long story short, this is going to be a very close match. Both players are good enough defensively to make life difficult for their opponent, and neither one serves so well that they can guarantee holding onto a lead. Garin’s physical strength and endurance could be a big key here, but when I go to type his name my mind goes to the wind-blown half-chopped looking Garin who gestures vaguely at the court or net while he loses. Shang also has a temper out there, but he fights through it a bit better. Shang in 5.
Wawrinka vs Broom :
I don’t really know Charles Broom yet, and Wawrinka is a pretty powerful server with good experience. It makes this pretty fruitless to predict. The thing with Wawrinka is that this is the first season he has looked completely toasted. In the past two seasons he was automatic for some first round wins and he’d gas out in the 2nd or 3rd round. This season he’s run out of steam within a single match, so Broom plus the crowd plus grass not being the best for his backhand and movement issues could be a problem. On the flip-side Broom has been losing good matches but at the Challenger level. Playing Svajda and Harris close is excellent, but losing those matches means that Wawrinka may still be a bit better. Wawrinka in 4. If this goes the distance I don’t think he can hang on though.
Monfils vs Mannarino :
Mannarino has had some bad draws this grass season but he hasn’t been his usual self. His movement looks a bit slow and that spells trouble for a guy who wins behind his speed and decision-making. Monfils just made a semifinal a week ago in Mallorca, and he’s always dominated matchups against his compatriots as there is a higher level of comfort playing someone you know. This should be fun but Monfils in 3-4 is the most likely outcome.
Zhang vs Janvier
Zhang has beaten Janvier the 3 times they played, and he just had a great run in Halle. Neither player is at their best on grass but Zhang has a bigger serve and more power. Janvier running through the qualifiers is impressive so this has a slight chance of an upset, but if they both perform well Zhang wins every time. Beating Nava and Perricard is good, but I don’t really think either of them can maintain the level of ballstriking that Zhang can when he’s playing well. Zhang in 4.
Struff vs Maroszan :
Maroszan reminds me a bit of Popyrin. He has crisp power that seems to come from nowhere, and his penchant for offense does not stop. The difference I think is in the cleaner contact and the use of the dropshot. Maroszan’s mechanics are very repeatable and that helps him thrive at the top level. So far he hasn’t been tremendous on grass, which gives Struff a chance to get going. Jan-Lennard has basically turned his career around in the past few seasons, and has gone from being a wildly inconsistent player to being one of the tour’s best producers as a favorite. When he’s in form, his serve and power just let him apply pressure to so many baseliners. Here, it’s a duel of offense, but Struff should be a little more comfortable on grass since he loves to serve and volley. Struff in 4-5.
Muller vs Gaston :
Gaston in qualifying has proven to be a big problem. In the finals, I liked Kukushkin’s chances to best him in a two out of three format, but in the 3/5 format it didn’t feel good. Gaston’s style of play means his opponent has to do a ton of footwork, so you need someone fast and with a deep gastank to beat him. Of course, anyone with a big serve will do the same, but the tour has sort of featured fewer and fewer servebots lately. Muller can play well on grass and managed to beat Rinderknech last year, but Gaston is a bit sharper right now. This should be close but Gaston playing qualifiers and Muller opting for clay challengers makes Hugo a very slight favorite. Gaston in 5.
Kovacevic vs Medvedev :
Medvedev doesn’t really serve as well as he used to, but he looked okay in the exhibition against Djokovic and this should be a simple match. A loss at Halle against Zhang doesn’t inspire confidence that he’ll make a deep run here, but it’s still pretty tough for any non-contender to hit through him. With Kovacevic, it’s hard to predict when he’ll be competitive and when he’ll revert to a more conservative approach, so Medvedev in 3 is likely but him in 4 is possible.
Alcaraz vs Lajal :
Obviously, Alcaraz is a favorite for this event. He eclipsed forearm concerns by winning Roland Garros, and he’s the defending champ here. I still would tune in for this match, because Mark Lajal is possibly the next big thing. It is a very outside chance at this point, but he has been getting a lot of respect in his matches at the Challenger level for the past two years. Qualifying at Wimbledon is a huge result for him, and even more impressive was his straight sets win against Duckworth in the final round. Duckworth is one of the more annoying players to play on grass. He serves hard, he hits very flat, and he’s tenacious as all heck. Alcaraz will likely win this in 3 sets, but Lajal is bringing in a very high level, with 0 expectations, and on a big stage sometimes a junior phenom can bring some entertaining tennis.
Vukic vs Ofner :
This should be pretty even. Both have huge serves, huge forehands, and have been winning in the warmups. The big weakness on court is Vukic’s backhand, so I like Ofner in 5. There isn’t much between their offenses, so if either has a rough day, they’ll lose. I know that sounds reductive, but thats how grass goes with big hitters.
Coric vs Meligeni Alves :
Coric has been sort of hurt and sort of fine for a while now, which makes this tough to predict. The good Coric can certainly beat Meligeni Alves, and the bad one will lose in straights. Meligeni is a guy who serves big and hits hard, but he’s mainly a lower tier clay-courter. For him to win this would be huge, but it isn’t impossible. He just played Coric on hardcourt this year and wound up in a third set, and he just outdueled Cressy in the final round who I would have beating Coric here. Coric did at least go to Boodles and get 2 matches (beat Diego 2-0 and lost to FAA in 3), but Boodles is for the crowd more than anything. I know these are prediction writeups, but I feel like I should wave my arms wildly for anyone going in thinking betting on Coric is a good idea here. It really could go either way. Coric in 5.
Arnaldi vs Tiafoe :
When I first looked at this match, it felt like one of those “if Tiafoe is motivated” situations, but looking at it now it might be too late. When you’re one of the better players on tour, you drive the competition to improve. The target is on your back, and guys like Arnaldi are putting in the work. So yes, Tiafoe has a higher ceiling than Arnaldi, but that only matters early in their careers. You can elevate and beat anyone in a third or 5th set, but enough time in a slump and them grinding away in a productive manner means that at a certain point, it doesn’t matter what level you summon. I know by writing this I’m summoning the best Tiafoe somehow, and fuck yeah that is what we want, but it feels like Arnaldi has passed Tiafoe by. Arnaldi approaches the game in an extremely professional manner, he works hard every point, and his backhand is excellent. Tiafoe’s serve and forehand can score on anyone, but Arnaldi is going to guarantee his end of the competition here and I think he wins via a few unforced errors that come as Tiafoe tries to maintain a high gear that he really hasn’t been cultivating in the past season or two. Arnaldi in 4-5.
Baez vs Nakashima :
Somehow a guy who I consider a baseliner is turning into a servebot. Nakashima’s return stats are not great, but his service hold percentage is excellent. What is that percentage? Idk. Just trust me. I’m like a turtle or something. Anyway, Baez is not great on grass but Nakashima is not capable of outhitting him once they get in rallies. This depends entirely on Nakashima’s first serve percentage, but he’s been winning a ton on grass so he should get this. Nakashima in 4.
Kotov vs Thompson :
I don’t think anyone on tour expects to lose to either of these guys, and yet no one wants to play them first round either. Kotov hasn’t played since the French Open, but that doesn’t mean a lot here as the grass warmups on tour are hard to get into and Kotov isn’t traditionally known as a grasscourt terror. Thompson excels on this surface, but the serving battle is a little bit in Kotov’s favor. In years past we’ve expected the clay-court guys to crash out easily, but I think the overall level of specialist on tour has improved. Most of these guys are more versatile now and capable of competing on any surface, so I expect a handful of wild results and unexpectedly close matches to materialize. Here, Thompson has better stamina and a bit more comfort on the surface, so he should be able to win in 4.
Van De Zandschulp vs Broady :
Liam Broady is like a slightly less tricky Adrian Mannarino, and playing at home against a guy considering retirement is a good spot. At the same time, Botic’s game is much bigger than Broady’s and he is an excellent server, so the outcome of this depends entirely on the winners to unforced errors count for Botic. Broady won their last two meetings which makes things a bit cloudier. 50/50 match here with a second tier pro against a struggling ex-champion. I’ll take Botic in 4. Broady can win but I think he’s a little better on hardcourt.
Shevchenko vs Humbert :
Shevchenko is a constant delight on tour. He hits the ball well, he goes for whatever shot he feels is correct in a situation, and he doesn’t give up even though he’s generally the underdog in most matches he plays. So far, he hasn’t been much on grass, but he has an opponent here who can lose the plot. Humbert plays a very measured game. He holds his swings a long time, his forehand is mostly about finesse and contact points rather than weight of shot, and he has a nice lefty serve from the ad side. It all adds up to him being a solid grass-court player, but his forehand can disappear within a match. Shevchenko’s only hope here is for that to happen. If Humbert plays well, he’s just a step above Shevchenko in terms of producing quick points. Humbert in 3-4.
Paul vs Martinez :
Tommy Paul was briefly the American #1, but for me he’s been the most legit American pro for the last 5-6 years. Fritz and Tiafoe have had higher highs, but Paul has been the one who has consistently gone to Europe and battled against the tours best players. When he runs into the big names at minor events, he fares well. When he battles them at majors, he falls but the buzz going in is generally positive. His speed around the court, ability to serve big, and solid backhand are the best things about his game, but he has a huge kick serve and a spinny forehand that are very useful in pressure moments. So many players decelerate in the big moments, and Paul doesn’t have to. Isner, Fritz, and Tiafoe have bigger weapons, but Paul seems like the best all-around player from the current crop of pros. Anyway, Martinez is not as bad as you’d think on grass, but he shouldn’t win this match. Paul in 4.
Virtanen vs Purcell :
This should be very good. Purcell was excellent this week in Eastbourne. He was excellent in return games and his variety and adept serving was on full display. Purcell was a doubles specialist for a while and it really helps him on grass. I think he’s the better player here, but Virtanen’s offense is scary good at times. He has a huge serve, and a cannon of a forehand. Basically, Virtanen has been projected to get on tour for the past year, but his inconsistent performances have kept this from happening. He’ll be a huge favorite and he’ll lose 6-1, 6-1. He’ll drop the first set 6-2 and win the second by the same scoreline. It’s likely a by-product of his immediate offensive choices, but it makes me think Purcell is going to win. Virtanen is excellent, but Purcell is going to win extra points by minimizing errors and being able to defend a bit more. Purcell in 5.
Bergs vs Cazaux :
For a brief moment last season, Cazaux looked like he was going to be a top player on tour. That has faded a bit, as injury issues have kept him from being very active. He has a shot here, but Bergs was pretty impressive in qualifying and his style of hitting big and overwhelming his opponent by pushing the pace constantly seems to unravel all but the top 30-40 players on tour eventually. Cazaux did beat Arnaldi at Hurlingham so this is by no means a simple match, but Bergs enters this as the deserving favorite. Bergs in 4.
Mensik vs Bublik :
Someone reminded me today that Mensik is just 19 years old and it’s hard to process. He already is more reliable than half the players on tour. This week will be tough as his grass-court play is not as solid as his hardcourt, but against Bublik there is always a chance. Bublik has the exact game that can thrive on grass but losses to Eubanks and Vukic mean Mensik has a decent chance. Mensik did just beat Eubanks in Mallorca, so this is an interesting spot for an upset. Mensik isn’t great on grass yet, but he is a bit more focused in general than Bublik and his approach is more straightforward so he’ll have fewer decisions per set than Alex. Feels crazy to lean into the upset here on paper, but Bublik is a flight risk in an early round. Mensik in 4.
Navone vs Sonego :
Navone is a clay-court specialist, and Sonego has an excellent serve. Sonego is supposed to win this match in straights, and everything about Sonego’s approach to the game is what gives Navone a slight chance. He’s ultra-aggressive and hits a ton of errors. He’ll hit himself out of a match if his timing is off, so this is a spot that’s worth watching to see if it’s good Sonego or the other fellow. Sonego in 3-4.
Bautisa-Agut vs Marterer :
A month ago I’d have expected Marterer to win here, but RBA played well in Mallorca and seems to have found his range on grass again. I’m still not really loving the depth and angles he’s creating (playing a bit extra safe at times), but RBA hitting the court and moving the ball is good enough to get him past Marterer. Max has great power and a good serve so this could be close. RBA in 4.
Koepfer vs Fognini :
Fognini will look much cooler than Koepfer, and yet he still won’t win this match. Koepfer is a very frustrating opponent and he defends admirably. That’s usually the key to beating Fognini, who is still a dangerous player but not one to dig in and play a marathon match. Koepfer in 4-5.
Bolt vs Ruud :
I don’t know if Bolt’s backhand is good enough to hold up in a 3/5 format, but in a 2/3 one I like his level here against Casper. Ruud doesn’t play very much grass, and he skipped it entirely this swing. Bolt has a very sharp and flat forehand, and a tricky serve with a lot of zip. It’s literally just his offense against Ruud’s consistency, and I think he’ll win a lopsided set or two. In the past, stamina has been his undoing at the majors, as his style of tennis requires a mental gas-tank that can run out if the shots start missing. Ruud in 5 or the upset. Beating Riedi in the qualifier finals was a really good result, and Ruud’s side is the one that’s not guaranteed here.
Rublev vs Comesana :
Good safe opener for Rublev here. He’s not that good on grass but his power and serving are good enough to get him past a clay specialist. Rublev in 3.
Coria vs Walton :
Coria only plays Wimbledon every year when he’s ualified in, and he’s never won a match. Great draw for Walton. Walton in 3-4.
Darderi vs Choinski :
Darderi is playing surprisingly well on grass, and pushed Struff to the limit earlier this month. He’s won 3 matches already, and his opponent here has yet to win one. Choinski is a good server and has had great results on the Challenger tour over the past few months, and having the home crowd at your back will help a bit. Darderi is playing well, but he doesn’t have a huge game and Choinski will get chances to play. I expect Darderi’s speed to frustrate Choinski eventually, and for him to win a competitive match. Darderi in 4.
Lestienne vs Musetti :
Musetti has been the biggest surprise the past month, and it makes him a pretty heavy favorite against Lestienne. Musetti’s athleticism and variety are letting him win a lot of close matches, and he has a decent draw here. Musetti in 3-4.
Korda vs Davidovich Fokina :
ADF is in a slump, and he doesn’t look on the court as if he’s puzzled his way out of it just yet. Any Fokina match at a major is worth watching, and Korda is a similarly talented skill player so it will be really exciting no matter what happens. Offense will win this and Korda has been much better lately. I will point out that ADF lost to Tabilo in 3 in London, and Tabilo just won the title in Mallorca. Korda’s serving should give him a big edge here in what might be a longer match than recent play would suggest. Korda in 5.
Nishioka vs Borges :
Nishioka had a good run in Eastbourne but he imploded late in the match against Vukic. He lost from 5-2 up in the tiebreaker, and when they got to 5-5 he double faulted almost on cue. Any points are useful for him right now, but grass points are a big bonus because his serve is severely lacking. Borges is not great on grass, but anyone is even against Nishioka right now. Borges’ unforced errors will cost him, but he’ll have a long time to get involved in this match for he has some good pop on his serve and hits a bit bigger than Nishioka. Borges needs time to produce his shots, so whoever wins the wrestling match early will probably win this match. It feels incorrect honestly to pick against Nishioka after he had a good run, but he has no mental fortitude and Borges is a fighter. Borges in 5.
Ruusuvuori vs McDonald :
Ruusuvuori actually won a match last week, and that sets up a nice match between the two biggest ghosts on tour. McDonald and Ruusuvuori have both struggled mightily in early rounds, and both have shown a really high level at times also so it’s very surprising. In this one, McDonald’s game is more organized but Ruusuvuori hits bigger and actually has a backhand. McDonald’s backhand isn’t bad, but also, McDonald’s backhand is bad. Since both have been less than stellar, it’s hard to expect either to step up in a major way here. Ruusuvuori in 4.
Daniel vs Tsitsipas :
Tsitsipas’s backhand is hard to watch on grass, but he serves much bigger than Daniel and he seems to thrive in these spots. Look for Stef to storm around the court confidently and nod and fistpump to his box as if beating Taro Daniel proves some point. Bonus points if he goes at Daniel at net for no reason. Tsitsipas in 3.
Fritz vs O’Connell :
Fritz just won the title in Eastbourne fairly easily, and he’s in a great service rhythm. He should have a decent run here and coast until he reaches Cobolli/Tabilo in the third. Fritz in 4.
Nishikori vs Rinderknech :
Nishikori is back! He’s not really back to his old self, and his results in Challengers don’t indicate that he’ll get there. Still, it’s great to see him playing and his backhand and court sense are world class still. Rinderknech’s serve and volley tactics are a big key here, and he can really use a big result here. I think he gets there, but he isn’t at his best so it could be close. Rinderknech in 4.
Cobolli vs Hijikata :
This is a great matchup, but maybe these guys would have preferred a simpler first round. Hijikata has been playing some scrambly tennis on grass so far, and Cobolli doesn’t seem to run out of energy. I think Hijikata will be the player holding serve easier early on in the match, but Cobolli’s tenacity and his experience this year playing big matches will let him continue to compete regardless of the score. I think Hijikata hits cleaner with time, but Cobolli can outlast him. Cobolli in 5.
Evans vs Tabilo :
Tabilo just won the title in Mallorca, and he’s up against a player here who’s struggling to find wins on tour. Evans started his grass season early at Nottingham, but he went down in 3 to Zach Svajda. He has the game to play anyone close, but Tabilo’s serving is very sharp right now and Evans is low on confidence. Tabilo in 4.
Draper vs Ymer :
Good stuff for Ymer to qualify after a long break from success on tour. It’s over now because Draper is simply too good, but still it’ll be interesting to see how high Ymer can climb. He has all the physical tools and can play good tennis, but he gets a bit too passive at times and it keeps him from stringing together results. Draper in 3.
Norrie vs Diaz Acosta :
I don’t know what’s going on with Norrie, but he’s become very beatable again. I guess it’s hard to make “get everything back” your main plan for season after season, but Norrie has been mediocre this season and I don’t think he’ll get anywhere close against Draper in round two. Norrie in 4ish here. Diaz Acosta is an unknown commodity on grass, but Norrie is not himself. I really haven’t liked his timing on returns on the forehand wing, and his backhand production makes it tough for him to return when the ball gets up high. Basically, people can score on him now and it makes him an entirely different player.
Searle vs Giron :
Searle is a good prospect, and British tennis looks strong for the first time in a while. Giron is probably too heavy of an ask, but only because Marcos has woken up this month and is serving well and hitting his forehand inside in with some serious commitment. Giron in 3.
Carballes Baena vs Zverev :
Zverbb says Wimbledon is within reach, and I say “no it is not”. His serve guarantees him a deep run, but his ability to find conservative shots and make himself into a pusher is poison on grass. Grass is for short points and clever, stingy defense. Going “AHHH!” on every forehand and landing it just past the service line is not the wave. I don’t expect RCB to win, but he’ll make at least one set competitive. I’m expecting something like 7-6, 6-3, 6-2.
Zheng vs Sun
Lulu Sun has been showing great promise lately just off tour and now she’s qualified for Wimbledon in her first attempt. She’s a lefty with a tremendous serve for her height and a good forehand. Her backhand is honestly not there yet, and neither is her defense, so grass suits her right now. Zheng is a huge ask for her since she’s really just an offensive talent at this point, but Qinwen hasn’t been at her best yet this month so Sun should win some games. Zheng beating Osaka pretty much secures that she can win this match, but there could easily be some twists and turns as well as Sun is playing. Zheng often takes the scenic route in early rounds. Zheng in 2 close sets.
Van Uytvanck vs Starodubtseva :
Starodubtseva has excellent results in qualifiers at majors so far this year, and it feels like she’s the next Ukrainian player to make her way into the top 100. She has had some late-match letdowns at tour level, but she hits the ball extremely well and pushes her opponent around as long as she’s fresh. Here she’s have the interesting task of getting returns in play. There aren’t many servebots on the women’s tour, but AVU is one of them. She’s not as active as she used to be on tour, so Starodubsteva is my pick here. Alison can hang onto her service games, but I’m not sure if she’ll win enough baseline rallies to really get pressure off herself. Starodubsteva has also played a few matches on the surface already so she’s likely to start off quicker than the veteran. Starodubtseva in 3.
Begu vs Zhu :
I’ve sort of made a shift away from mentioning gambling odds in these articles for a while now, but there is still some interesting info available in them. Zhu is ranked 60 spots higher than Begu, and Irina hasn’t played since Roland Garros, while Zhu has played two matches on grass (W-L). Despite this, Begu is still slightly favored here. That surprises me a little, because Zhu is a pretty solid baseliner, but Begu’s serve is what’s likely driving that number. She would dominate this matchup on clay, be about even on hardcourt, and on grass I guess she just has a chance to squeak by. In my head, Zhu moves better on the surface and will outlast Begu, but I’m willing to accept that I might not have the sharpest opinion about this particular matchup. Begu in 2.
Pavlyuchenkova vs Townsend :
Townsend is a player I would expect to thrive on grass with her excellent serve and skill at net, but the results aren’t there. Pavlyuchenkova hits pretty hard also and while she’s not as dangerous as in the past, she still is pretty consistent. Pavlyuchenkova should win in 2.
Alexandrova vs Raducanu :
Raducanu has played some great tennis in the past few weeks, including a tremendous win against Jessica Pegula. While she plays well at times, her stamina is not really tour level yet in this return. Since this is a first round, I don’t know why I mentioned that. Raducanu is pretty solid right now, and Alexandrova has won a bunch of matches recently, so this should be an excellent clash of offenses. Raducanu’s backhand is a masterclass in swing production, but Alexandrova hits bigger off that side. Raducanu moves the ball better with time, but she won’t have time here since Alexandrova plays pretty much nonstop offense. This might be the best match of the first round for highlights, but both players are equally likely to implode so I’m expecting a three set battle. I really don’t think Alexandrova will be bothered by the crowd, and I do think she’s the one more guaranteed to produce in this matchup. It’s hard to point to her as an outright winner also, because I don’t think she can run down Raducanu’s groundstrokes for a whole match. Really close match here, Alexandrova in 3.
Hibino vs Mertens :
Mertens was on a roll last week and had to withdraw, which makes this tricky. If she’s healthy, she should always beat Hibino. Nao is a great baseliner, but grass is more about hugging the baseline and battering away. Hibino tends to use height and angles to her benefit on the run, and Mertens should be able to find the open court most of the time. On hardcourt, Hibino can change direction much easier. Mertens in 2.
Rus vs Yuan :
Rus seems best on clay these days, and Yuan is a pretty powerful server. Yuan in 2-3.
Kessler vs Sakkari :
Sakkari is back to her old tricks. Losing in first rounds, confusing fans, it’s all good stuff about the Sakkari coaster. McCartney Kessler basically outlasted everyone she played in qualifying, so Sakkari should be able to win. The only way she loses this match is to errors, and so the question is do I think Sakkari is going to implode? Yes? However, Kessler’s early difficulties holding serve against qualifier level opponents mean Sakkari should at least have a set in the bag before trouble brews, and that makes me think she can win in 3.
Kasatkina vs Zhang :
Zhang is not back yet, and Kasatkina just won a title. Go Darya!
Korpatsch vs Miyazaki :
Miyazaki has a lot more experience on grass and she’ll have crowd support, so she has equal chances here. Korpatsch is a bit more steady, but her defensive/outlast style doesn’t work great on plant matter. Miyazaki in 3.
Badosa vs Muchova :
Badosa hit some huge shots against Shnaider, but the result seemed inevitable. Huge moment for Shnaider, and it was really nice to see Badosa acknowledge her at net and give her a big hug and congratulations. I love athletes who can see beyond the moment while they’re still in that moment, and I am possibly a Badosa fan after that. Muchova is newly back from injury, but she’s winning matches already. Badosa took a while to get going, but she’s now back near her old form (near but far). I’d buy tickets to this, but I think Muchova is going to be slightly more comfortable creating opportunities on grass so it might be one-sided. Muchova in 2.
Fruhvirtova vs Andreeva :
Funny to think that Fruhvirtova and Andreeva are so close in age. Andreeva is going the Gauff route in terms of ascent on tour. At this point, she’s almost expected to beat everyone outside the top 10, and against them we all tune in and hope. It’s a lot of pressure but she’s very good, so the expectations are reasonable even if they sound wild on paper. It’ll be a few years I think and some physical strengthening before she’s able to contend for majors, but in an early round against another junior I think her defense is a bit too much. Andreeva in 2.
Yastremska vs Podorska :
Yastremska and Podoroska have both been pretty lackluster in the grass swing. This is wide open honestly because Yastremska doesn’t lose to her opponent but to her own errors. She’s a smashy player and constant big hitting coupled with inconsistent timing doesn’t work out. Podoroska’s best hope here is to slice her backhand forever and just look to hit forehands to the open court. Simple enough, and I wouldn’t really deviate much from error hunting because Yastremska hits way bigger than her off both wings. Yastremska in 3ish.
Tsurenko vs Gracheva :
Tsurenko has been resting a back issue, so Gracheva should win this. Tsurenko is defending a lot of points from her deep run at Wimbledon last year, so there’s a lot of pressure, she’s not 100% physically, but also she’s good in these conditions. It’d be easy to pick Gracheva, but she just lost to Martincova in qualifying at Birmingham. Expecting a close match here, with Gracheva able to edge it out in a third.
Vekic vs Wang Xiyu :
Last week’s champ should win this. Vekic was always good on grass and her form is sharp. She had a finals run which is fatiguing, but she won the last few rounds in straight sets before falling to Shnaider. Vekic in 2.
Bektas vs Sabalenka :
Sabalenka floated some injury concerns this week, but Bektas is not there yet defensively to compete at this level. Sabalenka in 2.
Paolini vs Sorribes Tormo :
Despite a few weeks off, Paolini played well last week. Tormo hasn’t done much on grass, and Paolini’s speed means Tormo will have an impossible time scoring. Paolini in 2.
Minnen vs Watson :
Great server’s battle here. Watson has the home crowd but Minnen is a bit better at scoring off her +1. Watson plays well for 2-3 weeks a year but it’s hard to expect her to be clutch when she’s in the second half of the second half of her career. Minnen in 3.
Andreescu vs Cristian :
Andreescu’s first event back was a huge success, as she made the finals of S-Hertogenbosch and narrowly lost in a third set. Cristian has very little chance here against a genuine contender for this title. Andreescu in 2.
Errani vs Noskova :
Tricky spot for Noskova. Errani is past her prime, but she can still ball. She won a bunch of matches in Gaiba, and Noskova can sometimes throw in a few bad games. Linda should win this in 2, but it would not surprise me if this was closer than her fans want it to be.
Kostyuk vs Sramkova :
Sramkova the clay hero is back! Unfortunately, grass is a surface you need to prove your ability on, so Kostyuk starts out as a heavy favorite here. Kostyuk in 2. She hits bigger and she has experience.
Saville vs Stearns :
Saville is always projected to be a tough match, but if Stearns plays well she’ll win. She’s as fast as Saville, has way more ways to score, and serves better. Stearns’ only win on grass so far in her career was vs Stusek who is 15 and was a lucky loser entrant, so it’s hard to think that she’s going to dominate this. Still, Saville does all her work with her speed and forehand and I think Stearns will be able to match her out there and figure it out eventually. Stearns in 3.
Schmiedlova vs Wang Yafan :
Wang has won almost all their meetings, and bothered to play grass warmups. Both of their grass histories are littered with losses, but Wang seems to be working on fixing that. Wang in 2.
Trevisan vs Keys :
Madison is pretty effective on grass if her opponent doesn’t have a big serve. Keys’ only real trouble on the surface is her big swing is not conducive to dealing with bad bounces and slides, and Trevisan likely won’t be on offense enough to earn errors. Keys in 2.
Azarenka vs Stephens :
Stephens plays to the level of her opponent, so this should be a great matchup. She has a great serve and easy power. Guessing if Sloane will ball is not fun, but watching her ball is. I’ll hope for the best, but I think Azarenka can win anyway. She’s 14-0 in the first round at Wimbledon. Azarenka in 2-3.
Pliskova vs Shnaider :
Pliskova is not the first round reward you want after your first title run, and Shnaider will have her hands full here. I don’t think a player as dedicated to tennis as her is going to party much after a title, so she should be ready for this. If fatigue is a factor, Pliskova wins. That’s not saying anything terribly brilliant, but this should be close even if Shnaider is fresh. Pliskova is a tremendous server and grass just makes her groundstrokes even more effective. Someone in 3.
Osaka vs Parry :
Osaka’s return is going way better than I expected, and I half expect her to win a title in the hardcourt swing. Parry can win this if she serves well and Osaka starts slow, but I don’t see both things happening. Osaka in 2.
Wang Qiang vs Navarro :
Cool to see Wang back on tour, but Navarro in your first match is not a winnable situation. Navarro in 2.
Cirstea vs Kartal :
I think Cirstea’s game should work on grass, but so far it doesn’t seem that way. As a result, Sonay Kartal has a first round she can absolutely win. Her qualifying run ended on a high note as she smoked Erika Andreeva, and Cirstea losing to Zhu means Kartal’s level is good enough to snag her. Kartal in 2.
Lys vs Burel :
Burel hasn’t been great on grass, and Lys just qualified. I’m picking two qualifiers in a row because honestly the levels here are very similar, but Lys hits a bit bigger overall. Lys in 2.
Danilovic vs Todoni :
I have no clue who’s going to win this match. Danilovic beat Todoni on clay at the French, and clay is supposed to be Todoni’s best surface. Todoni is a junior still and her level is pretty incredible. She’s been crushing it at the lower level, and beating Birrell and Parrizas-Diaz is good enough to beat Danilovic. By the same token though, Danilovic hits a lot bigger and had a tougher qualifying draw (Galfi in the final round). Very tough to guess the outcome of a brand new matchup. Danilovic will make more unforced errors but she also sometimes locks into a very high level on serve and being lefty is a huge advantage on tour. Todoni in 3. I think she’s navigated the surface better this past week.
Dolehide vs Gauff :
Dolehide! Gauff in 2. Maybe not honestly, because Dolehide can serve huge and Gauff is a slow starter. All the knocks on Gauff’s game are slowly fading, so every time I write an article it gets less and less logical to doubt her.