2024 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Round Four - Sunday Matches

ATP Singles :

Sinner vs Shelton :

Jannik Sinner looks like he might go for back to back majors here. Of the big names in the tournament, he’s the only one whose results so far are constantly reflecting the expectations. Kecmanovic is supposed to be a tough opponent, and Sinner never really looked in danger. Here, he gets another opponent who’s tricky, but simple. The reason Sinner generally loses is because of overall fatigue. His legs can get a little bit worn down, and Alcaraz has been the one to do this. If Jannik can keep winning quickly, he’ll have a full gas tank when he gets to the later rounds.

Shelton is through after a thrilling match against Shapovalov. Shapo could have won, but he failed to execute over and over. Shots at net, running forehands to the open court, and a bunch of shots I know he’l want back. Shelton’s serve proved more reliable than his, and I guess it makes sense that although Ben is not sharp on grass he still has been more active than Denis and was able to convert more often in key situations. There’s not a ton of analysis here. Shelton’s serve is the only way he stays in this match. His backhand is a target for Sinner, and against one of the best returners in the game, the chances for a server in somewhat adverse conditions are low. Shelton and Shapo was an environment where unforced errors don’t cost you entire sets, but against Jannik they will. Shelton being a great competitor will likely make an come in handy here, as he’ll want to step up. When he’s totally focused, he does have a huge forehand and a great court-sense. This should be fun, but the outcome will feel inevitable. Sinner in 3.

Dimitrov vs Medvedev :

Medvedev has beaten Dimitrov almost every time they’ve met. Dimitrov’s backhand vs Medvedev’s is a bad matchup, and in general they serve about even. Dimitrov at his best looks dominant against Medvedev but over the course of a long match it feels like Medvedev has a clearer head about what to do with each ball. Daniil was slated to struggle against Struff in the previous round, but the defensive pressure he applied earned him errors in key moments. Even late in the fourth with a sitter backhand at net, Medvedev’s appearance sprinting cross-court made Struff paddle the ball 4 feet long. It was a version of what I think we’ll see from Dimitrov vs Medvedev. The conditions are better for Dimitrov, but doing it for an entire match against Med seems like something he hasn’t done yet.

One of Dimitrov’s only wins (3-7 lifetime) against Medvedev is on grass, but it’s been 7 years since that match, and Medvedev’s play has gone way up since then. This probably ends up in a 5th set, and Medvedev has adopted an “outlast them” strategy against the big offenses like Cilic and Struff and Dimitrov so he could be down early, but I think he’s a bit more resilient than Dimitrov. Dimitrov might be hyped to get some ground back in the h2h but it’ll loom in his head in the rough patches and I expect him to run out of shots a few hours into this. Medvedev in 5.

Humbert vs Alcaraz :

Alcaraz and Sinner make things easy sometimes. Humbert just froze Nakashima’s excellent run in a four set win, and he’s generally good on grass, but it just feels like he has no chance here. Alcaraz has literally just been taken to 5 sets, and still it doesn’t really feel like his ability or prowess is impacted. The longer a match goes, the harder it becomes to beat Alcaraz. He’s 12-1 in 5th sets and once his opponent’s best tennis is gone, it’s really hard to beat him. Alcaraz’s fluid forehand production means that early in a match, he can be rushed into less than perfect contact at times (by serves and pace). As the physical toll of playing at Alcaraz’s pace makes his opponent go more with shape and less with pace, Alcaraz has more time to swing and then his Nadal-esque forehand starts to really become a problem.

Tiafoe served excellent and gave us the match of the tournament so far, but as it headed into a fifth it seemed like he was toast. I will say that late in the fourth he had a few chances, so it was a positive result, but it was what we expected. Tiafoe the ability to play at that level, but Alcaraz can do it more often and for longer. In this match, Humbert’s offense is good enough to score on Alcaraz, but I don’t think he can hang defensively. Some of the best matches he’s played on tour have been going uphill on grass, and his timing is excellent so he’ll be able to deal with Alcaraz’s pace for a time. I just think Alcaraz brings too much variety for Humbert to stay at his best throughout. Carlos isn’t the best server yet, but he varies his location constantly and I don’t find Ugo to return with the type of depth that’ll bother him. Alcaraz in 3-4.

Paul vs Bautista-Agut :

This would have been closer in an earlier round I think. RBA has played excellent the past few weeks. The hallmark of that run has been pulling away in the second half of the match. Hitting a good stride and moving the ball well is an excellent plan, but after a few long matches and a 5 setter against Fognini that stretched across two days, I’m wondering how much he has left. Tommy Paul shrugged off Virtanen woes and straight setted Bublik, and his record against RBA has shifted over time in his favor, with Paul losing in 2021 3 times but wining in 2022 and winning their last match at the Australian Open in 4. I don’t think RBA serves well enough to hold easily in this one, and Paul’s speed and serving ability should ensure that he’s able to score. Given their familiarity and RBA’s style of play (careful and well-crafted baselining), this should be a high level affair, but I think this is the round where Bautista-Agut is not the stronger player in the second half of the match. Paul in 4.

WTA Singles :

Sun vs Raducanu :

There’s a little mystery in this one, even though Raducanu is favored. Lulu Sun is a brand new name for most people, and every result she has in this event is her best result on tour. She beat Lin Zhu in straights, and while Raducanu is much better on grass than her, the way Sun scores might not be player dependent. She has an excellent lefty serve, and a laser of a forehand. If you give her time or a short ball, she can take the racquet out of your hands. Add in that Raducanu withdrew from her mixed doubles with Andy Murray due to wrist stiffness, and Sun might be in better shape here than we expect. Skipping doubles to pursue a singles title is pretty standard on tour, so Raducanu isn’t necessarily going to be limited, but hearing a player has a wrist issue who is returning from wrist surgery is kinda scary.

If Raducanu is at her best, her backhand wins her this game. She’s able to return pace well cross-court, and if she can trade neutral from there then the matchup becomes about her forehand vs Sun’s backhand. Emma has a big edge there, and she’s serving well on her home courts so overall it feels like Sun needs a subdued Raducanu to have a chance. Emma played excellent against Sakkari, but I actually think Sun has more ways to score than Sakkari (this week at least) so this might be a little closer. Raducanu in 2 close sets.

Badosa vs Vekic :

Brand new matchup here. Vekic’s power and dropshots vs Badosa’s heavy shotmaking and defense. If we go off the previous rounds, Badosa looks better. She was able to outduel Kasatkina in a marathon three-setter, and that means any issues with inconsistency aren’t really there. Beating Kasatkina means you can keep the ball in play, and you have a lot of power. Badosa also serves effectively so I like her side here. Beating Vekic is a different equation than most players on tour. She serves well, and her forehand on grass is nearly unplayable. She hits the off-forehand inside out very often, and the ball slides in a wicked manner. She mixes in a plethora of dropshots as well which are really tough to retrieve on grass if you’re not alert since changing direction can often lead to slips. I expect Vekic to dominate one set, but not to win the match. Badosa’s ability to defend and extend points may frustrate Vekic, and she tends to throw in at least 1 rough service game per set. With the courts getting chipped up and the players starting to be a bit fatigued, I’m leaning towards defense starting to play a larger role in match outcomes. Badosa in 3.

Paolini vs Keys :

I wish I hadn’t just said the thing about defense playing a larger role, because now this match is a bit trickier. I expected Andreescu to outlast Paolini, but after losing a close first set she had no energy left. Paolini vs a tired opponent is a bad situation, and a 6-1 win sends Paolini into the fourth round. Honestly, her ascent this season has been incredible, and tennis conditions dictate who will win but staunch defense and lack of unforced errors has always paid dividends even in the underwater events or the famously cancelled “Serves On Ice” events of the 90s.

When Keys is winning, I don’t bother her. She gets going and trounces people in straight sets, and the tennis just improves every round. Her serve is powerful, and her groundstrokes are nearly unplayable when they land in the court. This week, she’s doing great, and she beat Paolini 1,1 in Dubai this year so there’s some expectation that she can hit through the tour’s new favorite underdog. If Jasmine can make this a backhand exchange, she has a chance. Keys hits her backhand down the line well but it’s the weaker wing. Paolini has a good off-forehand so she’ll be able to isolate that wing if it’s having trouble. The plan is simple, but I think Keys really does have enough power to beat Paolini, a big enough serve, and unlike Andreescu she’s match fit and ready to play a 2+ hour match if necessary. Keys in 3.

Navarro vs Gauff :

Shnaider’s lovely run on grass finally ended, and it wasn’t as much fatigue as it was Navarro’s excellent play. Emma looks really comfortable moving on grass, and she has a pretty effective forehand. Her backhand was her main weakness, but it has looked better every time I’ve seen her this season. Her serve isn’t the most powerful delivery, but it’s located well and has some good kick. Navarro vs Gauff is the best match of the day, and it’s our first look at Coco’s real title ability here. Thus far, Gauff has been dominant, but she’s mostly played local phenoms and junior standouts. Great player, but nobody with the power and offense and durability to really threaten her. Navarro can hang in rallies and she serves well also. She reminds me a bit of Andreescu in terms of her court sense also. She knows when to go a bit safer and just put the ball in play, and she’s not scared to go big on a huge point if the opportunity is there. Beating Gauff is about more than decision-making, but physically I think Navarro can push her. Working against that spectator hope for a classic match is their previous meeting. Gauff won 3,1 in Auckland and she just seemed to hit bigger and serve a bit bigger also in that contest. Even if Navarro can wrest control of this contest, Gauff still defends the baseline as well as anyone on tour. I expect a close match, with Gauff’s power and speed proving to be a slight edge in long rallies. Gauff in 3.