2024 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Round Four - Monday Matches
Sped through the a bit to get it up so apologies for the brevity. If you prefer the brevity, I have included a haiku version of some match writeups instead. Unfortunately, I was stuck at a tournament all day and saw 0 tennis today. Since I missed the day, I probably will skip the writeup for the Tuesday matches or do something slightly different.
Rybakina vs Kalinskaya :
thwack thwack thwack thwack thwack this one lady seems scary can Anna hold serve?
Rybakina was unplayable last round. Wozniacki might be one of those matchups she just thrives in and feels perfectly safe, but when Rybakina starts crushing her groundstrokes, serving bombs, and not missing there aren’t many players who can do much with her. Kalinskaya is a very similar challenge for Rybakina but she has her legs under her more than Wozniacki and a bit more power in her forehand. They’ve been fairly competitive in the past but if Rybakina carries over that same level into this match she wins in 2. Will she? Hmm. Beating Samsonova is solid but she gives up the type of unforced errors that let Kalinskaya win; Rybakina seems like she’s ironed though out. Rybakina in 2.
Svitolina vs Wang Xinyu :
tutorial skipped, keeps pressing the same button, can’t knock down a wall
Svitolina and Jabeur was expected to be close, but Svitolina handled the moment way better. Jabeur settled into the match in the second, but despite being on serve, she was rattled. The match isn’t over, but she loses one point to a bad bounce or tough shot and she begins going through the motions of woe and lament. It only serves to inspire your opponent when you look visibly discouraged, and Svitolina is the wrong person to encourage. Here, Svitolina has basically the same equation. Wang has been smashing away and eventually finding her rhythm against players who have either a similar but smaller offense, or who are mainly defensive tests. Here Svitolina will be able to hit with her even when she redlines as far as weight of shot, and I think Wang will force the issue and make unforced errors as the match drags on. Svitolina is serving decent now as well. Svitolina in 2.
Collins vs Krejcikova :
No haiku for this one because I’m scared of Danielle.
Krejcikova got the benefit of a retirement against Bouzas Maneiro in the previous round, so I’m not sure if I was wrong or unlucky. Bouzas had an issue with her back and despite a lengthy and vigorous treatment, she was unable to continue down a set and 4-3. Krejcikova has a tough match here, because Collins matches up well with her. Collins’ backhand is stronger and more versatile, and she’s much more consistent than Krej. Collins was down 0-4 to Haddad, and won the set 6-4. Maybe she starts slow again, but I think her level has been higher than what I’ve seen from Krejcikova. Collins 2-3.
Putintseva vs Ostapenko :
tiny lil nuggets, raging away in the grass, whose backhand is best?
Putintseva multiplied the chaos at Wimbledon by beating Iga Swiatek. She started to frustrate Iga into errors in the second set and never took her foot off the gas. The constant retrieving and peppering of Swiatek’s backhand paid dividends, and it’s pretty much the bigger win of Putintseva’s career. I had Ostapenko beating Swiatek in this round, but I like her style against Swiatek’s more than Putintseva’s. Most of Osty and Putsy’s previous matches have been close, and their last meeting was a three setter. Ostapenko has the power and aggressive shot selection to hit through anyone, but Putintseva has been one of the best defenders on tour for a long time. If Ostapenko can stay stable on her backhand, she can win, but her temper and patience are not always there. This week she’s serving well, and returning well, so this is at worst even. I expect 3 sets here because both players are at their best, and their styles conflict. Putintseva is looking to keep Ostapenko out there forever, and if Osty could shut her out completely she’d already be the favorite to win this event. At the same time, Putintseva defends admirably, but Ostapenko’s power, serve, and aggressive returning mean that all the defense in the world won’t matter in some stretches. Ostapenko in 3.
Musetti vs Mpetshi Perricard :
Musetti has been excellent on grass, and Perricard has been the bright point of this season. It’s a rematch of the Stuttgart match a few weeks ago where Musetti won 7-6, 7-6. In that match Perricard save 8 of 8 break points, but surprisingly Musetti faced 0. That’s the one reason I think this match is basically a coinflip. Perricard can be unplayable on serve, and he already outdueled Korda in this tournament which is a win of the same caliber as Musetti. Lorenzo had the tougher 3rd round against Comesana, and while it took a long time he was always a bit stronger from the baseline in terms of being able to end things. I don’t expect Musetti to go 0/X on break points forever, but he’s not the best returner so this is likely to see a number of tiebreaks again. I don’t think there’s a great way to be sure of an outcome here. Perricard has been sharper here but those break point stats make me feel like Musetti can win again. Musetti in 5.
Fritz vs Zverev :
Fritz and Zverev were excellent in the third round. Fritz was able to get past Tabilo in straights, and he served well and hit his forehand for excellent effect. Tabilo looked flat, and his legs didn’t have to oomph to really defend when Fritz got a full swing. Zverev should do better with that, but he did tweak his knee last round and Norrie was able to grind him out a bit. Since Fritz’s offense is much bigger and he’s playing well, I expect this to go 4-5 sets. Zverev’s serving is just as good as Fritz’s, if not better. He has a big edge in backhand exchanges, but Fritz’s forehand is way more effective. Since both have their bright points and both are in a good service rhythm, I could see this being close. Their h2h in recent years has seen them trade wins, but Zverev seems at a slightly higher tier here. The upset could be possible if Fritz runs away with things in the early going, but Zverev in 5.
Fils vs De Minaur :
De Minaur gets a walkover and Fils plays a 3.5 hour battle with Safiullin. Seems fair. De Minaur is going to profit from Fils’ errors, but Arthur does hit big and that’s a key here. Alex only really struggles against player with huge power, because his flat hitting is ineffective against a very heavy shot. When Fils gets a full swing, he’ll look excellent, but when he’s on the move and trying to create against a better baseliner who doesn’t miss much, I think he’ll falter a bit. De Minaur in 4.
Rune vs Djokovic :
4 sets? 5 sets? 6 sets? 8 SETS????? This is pretty much guaranteed to be close. Rune was down bad against Halys, but that doesn’t mean much to me. Halys was serving as well as anyone in the tournament, and running his offense well. He had just beaten Khachanov, and Rune kept battling and eventually won. For him to mentally withstand the onslaught and still win shows me he’s in good form, and he’ll need that same resilience here. Djokovic dropped a set against Popyrin, and while the outcome looked pretty inevitable, I haven’t seen the unbeatable Wimbledon winning version of Djokovic just yet. Rune will have his chances, and grass is not really the surface I’d want to fully exert on after knee surgery.
It feels like it’s now or never to beat Djokovic basically. Holger has had success in the past, but he gets way too passive in the matches I’ve seen him lose. Djokovic will eventually make errors, but if you give him time to find his rhythm then he tends to lock in and not drop his level until the match is over. Rune will need to get his 1st serve percentage higher than 64 (vs Halys) or he’s in for a really long day, but he landed 80% in the 5th set so he might be trending in the right direction. There’s no way to be sure what will happen tomorrow, but we either see Djokovic find his best tennis, or Rune advance. Based on what I’ve seen so far, and since Djokovic is slightly less than fit, I think I like Rune in 5.