2024 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Quarterfinals - Wednesday Matches
Musetti vs Fritz :
Most years this quarterfinal would point to the tour lacking depth in the post big-3 era. This season though, these are two of the best performers on grass. Musetti has been afforded a pretty simple draw, but each round he’s shown a bit of improvement in his level. With the grass playing a little slower than past years his defense is paying dividends, and we see a handful of great baseline defenders profiting this week (Svitolina, Paolini, Medvedev, De Minaur). Breaking Fritz will be a good bit more labor intensive than Mpetshi Perricard, but it was good prep for Lorenzo to play a big server before facing Taylor.
Fritz was the hero of the previous round, winning a titanic contest against Alexander Zverev. Zverev and Fritz served tremendously well and hit the ball very hard in their match, and it was pretty close in the early going. Fritz from from 4-2 up to 6-4 down in the first set, and in the second he lost a tiebreaker. From there his level stayed the same and Zverev’s dropped. Some of the story here was Zverev’s limited movement. He had injured his knee and had a brace on it, and he wasn’t as fast as he generally is. Still, the level he played at was very strong, and Fritz earned the win.
Taylor Fritz is the last player I’d expect to come back from 2 sets down, but it was a great win and he was the player more willing to take risks. His forehand was excellent, and despite having the weaker backhand, he created wider angles with it in the exchanges. At the end of the match Zverev seemed frustrated with the manner in which someone in Taylor’s box was cheering, but it didn’t seem like much of a big deal. There is certainly a difference between supporting a player with your efforts and trying to bother an opposing player with them, but I don’t think we’ve really seen video or a solid report on what was going on and Zverev’s track record of self-centered thinking makes it likely he was deflecting from the loss.
Against Musetti, Fritz will have a much easier time putting returns in play. Musetti is serving around 70% first serves in which is solid, but it’s not a huge delivery. There will be a lot of opportunities for Fritz to get into his service games, but the big difference here between Musetti and Zverev is physical ability. Zverev was a step slow and Musetti is one of the most noted defenders on tour. Lorenzo is a tremendous athlete and while his slightly deep court positioning hurts him on hardcourt, he has seemed to get a big bonus from being able to extend rallies and plat tricky slices on grass this season. Basically, Fritz is playing better and will be able to score quick points with less effort, but Musetti is almost guaranteed to make this a long day. In 2022 Fritz beat Musetti in straights, but Lorenzo this past month has played well and he hasn’t done that much in recent history. Musetti won their last meeting but that was on clay in Monte Carlo where Fritz can’t score. It’s weird to say Fritz deserves to be in the semifinals here, but he really does. He’s put the extra work in to compete when he gets to the late rounds and he’s taking the initiative when he’s in big moments. Fritz in 4.
Djokovic vs De Minaur :
I fell for it once again. I thought two things that just weren’t true. One, Djokovic was less than healthy. I guess it doesn’t make sense for him to compete if he doesn’t feel well on the court. The second part is Rune stepping up. He plays well for a game or two, but there are just too many unforced errors from his side. Rune has all the tools but the consistency just isn’t there. It’s almost like he gets excited when he sees an opening, or gets frustrated with deficits and tries to get it all back in one swing. The output needs to be constant against Djokovic and rally ball errors are unacceptable, and unfortunately we’ve only seen that level from Rune a few times.
Djokovic can make anyone look pedestrian, but he really cruised in the last round. He had some minor stomach troubles and got salty with the crowd and his box as usual, but he was always in control and he has once again made it to the second week completely fresh. Djokovic needs to win 3 matches to snag his 25th major title, and the projected road is De Minaur, Fritz, Alcaraz. Not easy, but a huge opportunity. The ADM Novak match has a bit of confusion in it even aside from the tennis analysis. Alex seemed to tweak something in his leg at match point in his previous match. He limped to net, and there’s no real way to know what state he’s in. His camp won’t release actual information that would help Djokovic, but this one might be over before it starts if Alex’s mobility is limited. If he’s okay, it should be a fun match. De Minaur is not that good on grass to expect an upset, but he’s far more consistent than Rune from the baseline. He moves the ball well, he plays as hard as Nadal, and he’s extremely fast. He’s a nightmare matchup for most players, but Djokovic is good enough and stacks up well.
De Minaur is great, but he struggles with players who can consistently hit bigger than him. He’s on a good run here, but his serve is not that strong. I feel like Djokovic will get into most of his service games here, so even if De Minaur breaks in one of Djokovic’s poor games (he’s good for 1 per set just to inspire hope), it’ll be a long journey to hold onto the lead. I can march out the “Djokovic’s movement is less than optimal” hope for him, but Novak has gotten through here without a lot of wear and tear. The hardest he’s had to work so far was the Fearnley match, and he’s had 3 full days off since then at least. I’ll add in that even though De Minaur’s motor is unreal, he got tired against Fils. Maybe he knew the match was over since Fils was spraying unforced errors and winners in equal parts, but he slowed down in the 3rd and the 4th featured a lot of break points for the Frenchman. I expect a lot of breaks in this match, but for Djokovic to be the one whose serve nets him more comfortable holds. If ADM’s leg is hurt, this could be hard to watch. If not, Djokovic in 4 close sets.
Ostapenko vs Krejcikova :
The wonderfully plucky run of Ostapenko has continued. Last round she played Putintseva who is one of the tour’s most effective pushers, and it was all Ostapenko from start to finish. 6-2, 6-3 against a player who outlasted Swiatek’s offense is really impressive. While I did have Ostapenko beating Swiatek, it becomes tricky to see anyone beating Ostapenko at this point. This match is really tough for that reason. Ostapenko and Rybakina (and sort of Paolini) have elevated their offensive output to levels that look unplayable. They’re consistently hitting the ball huge, and Rybakina and Jelena both face opponents this round that are nearing their best form.
I had Krejcikova losing to Collins, but she played so much better than expected last round. She served big, she kept her unforced errors down, and she outrallied Collins. When Krejcikova is landing her shots, only Rybakina and Sabalenka hit the ball bigger. That makes a match against Ostapenko extremely exciting, but I’m not sure if the extra pace will keep Ostapenko from exposing her slightly slow movement. Krejcikova moves well for a taller player, and her swings are extremely smooth, but if you rush her she makes errors. Barbora landed 67% of her first serves last round, but as many aces as double faults. She had 20 winners, but 19 unforced errors. It was the best she’s played in a long time, but I still think Ostapenko’s level has been more impressive. In the past they’ve traded a handful of wins, but Jelena has been winning over the last few meetings and convincingly so. Since Krejcikova has a huge offense, this might be the first time Ostapenko drops a set, but I don’t think she can maintain the level over the course of a long match. Ostapenko in 3.
Rybakina vs Svitolina :
Right now, Rybakina looks like the favorite to win this tournament. The outcome of this match could solidify that, because Svitolina is playing excellent at the moment. She disrupted Jabeur’s rhythm and won in straight sets, and last round she completely shut down Wang Xinyu’s power and won in a lopsided 6-2, 6-1. She’s serving well and hits hard, and defends almost as well as she did in her prime. There’s a reason Svitolina doesn’t have a major title though. The big names that tend to rack up the titles can overcome the best defenders. You can’t outrun the ball, and offense (at the highest level) tends to beat defense in most racquetsports.
Rybakina’s serving is unreal, and her baseline hitting looks robotic. She tends to stay in cross-court patterns which minimizes her errors, and after a blowout and a withdrawal (up 6-3, 3-0 against Kalinskaya) she’ll be fresh for this and rounding into excellent form. Svitolina hits harder and serves more effectively than Kalinskaya, so I expect this to be a bit closer, but Rybakina really only loses here if unforced errors and impatience sneak back in. If she didn’t display those traits against Wozniacki and Kalinskaya, I don’t expect them to override her chances to win here. Svitolina is a fighter, but even if she can extend this to a third by slowing the pace of the match and sneaking an early or late break, I think Rybakina just resets and wins a third. Rybakina in 2 close sets.