2024 Wimbledon Men's Semifinals

As usual, for the semis I have installed cameras in the player’s rooms to offer an insight scoop on their morning routines.

Medvedev vs Alcaraz :

5AM.

The furious sound of clicking wafts over the distant sunrise. Medvedev has been awake the entire night.

“Nice try, Mario,” taunts Medvedev, “but you’re no match for Daniil Kong.”

“You need to sleep, Daniil,” pleads Gilles, “you have a match today”

“I always have a match, when is Daniil time?” asks Medvedev. “Besides, I’m getting warm, is Mario Tennis”

“That’s Mario Kart, Daniil”

“See that’s why you’re the coach, Gilles, that’s why you’re the coach”

Gilles sighs, and goes back to reading Laid Back Guy magazine. It’s time for the Wimbledon semifinals.

5AM.

Alcaraz has been awake the entire night pretending to sleep.

Alcaraz opens one eye.

“It’s” he starts.

“No, Carlitos,” says Juan Carlos.

“tiiiiime” he continues.

“IT ISN’T, CARLOS,” insists Juan Carlos.

“FOR PRACTIIIIIIIIIICE!!!!!!” says Carlos, as he bounds out of bed and begins bouncing tennis balls off the walls, ceiling, and various coaches.

“Hitting practice is at 9, CARLITO….” attempts Juan Carlos, but it is too late. Alcaraz has already placed him in an oversized backpack and darted off down the hallway to the courts.

It’s time for the Wimbledon semifinals.

Last round was full of surprises, both pleasant and chaotic. Medvedev’s solid play was pleasant. Sinner having issues with the heat and dizziness was chaotic. The first set could have gone either way, but Medvedev blinked first. Early in the second, Jannik sat down and called for the trainer. He was moving a bit sluggish, Medvedev had broken, and Sinner reported feeling dizzy. He went off court for a moment, and while he forced Medvedev to serve it out, things looked grim for him.

They honestly have some incredible treatments on tour. Anytime I see someone taking tablets, they seem to recover enough to finish the match. Sinner recovered enough to force a tiebreak in the third (despite trailing by a break until 5-4), but Medvedev won. Sinner’s technical quality kept him in this match, but it was clear he didn’t want to play long points. The result was that Medvedev locked in and didn’t miss. Any time he got in trouble, he purposely played a long rally, and Sinner looked less than himself in the following point. Daniil is already looking to outlast his opponent, but letting him profit from extending rallies just makes him more consistent.

True to the chaos, Sinner came back in the 4th. Medvedev went down a double break and let the set go, and they were off to a fifth. The fifth could have gone either way. The early games were all extremely close, but Medvedev broke for 3-1 and held on to win. It sets up another battle with Alcaraz that I think I have to go against him in, but it should be a tremendous match. Sinner losing his rally tolerance really played into Medvedev’s hands, and he still barely won. I expect that since Alcaraz wants to play long rallies and since his level elevates as the match goes, it’ll be more about his percentages than anything. Once he was off his A game physically, Sinner resorted to a number of dropshots. While this isn’t his usual approach, they worked well for him. That means Alcaraz’s dropshot heavy approach might be really effective, and the combo of his power on grass and the well crafted dropshots is the right formula to beat Medvedev.

Alcaraz is starting to win in a similar manner to Nadal. Everyone can play with him in the early goings, but as the match goes on you almost want to be taking more risks and playing shorter points. Tommy Paul matched up with him incredibly well in the first set, but somehow he got the worst end of a game where Alcaraz faced all the pressure. Alcaraz had a 17 minute service game at 2-3, and he smiled throughout. Tommy was playing excellent, but the physical output of playing such a long game at Alcaraz’s preferred pace took the edge off. He won the set, but from there he faded. By the 3rd set Alcaraz was running away with the match, and that should be a warning sign for the tour. His inconsistency is the path to beat him, but it’s also important not to let him get in a rhythm. Kyrgios’ announcing was excellent this week, and I’m reminded of how few normal rallies he would play against his opponent. When Alcaraz is hitting each shot for the first time, he has a tendency to be less than perfect. By forehand/backhand # 40, he just locks into a very high level.

I almost always like Alcaraz against Medvedev. Daniil can serve his way out of trouble here, but I think grass gives Alcaraz a little boost. On hardcourt we force shots and make errors trying to create. We try to make the ball slide or jump with spins and flat hitting. Those bounces are uniform though. We need to really be perfect to score and consider location. On grass, not so much. The back of the court is very worn down at this point, and players can really just keep driving the ball and benefit from random bounces. I think Medvedev is excellent at reflecting power, but I don’t think he’ll get out of trouble when he does. Alcaraz is varying his service location well this week, and Medvedev will have to stand in on returns to avoid getting picked off by Carlitos’ dropshots. Really no one on tour is able to beat Medvedev easily when he plays well; he defends as well as anyone, hits excellent passes, and has every shot at his disposal with tremendous reach. That being said, I think the conditions will let Alcaraz eventually wear him down. Alcaraz in 4.

Djokovic vs Musetti :

5AM.

A silent alarm goes off.

Djokovic senses it and awakens.

He begins stretching.

He stretches too far and tears his knee cartilage.

It automatically reknits for some reason.

He tweaks his neck doing downward dog, but after several neck rolls it heals and his muscles increase for some reason.

“Time to win again,” says Novak to the mirror.

The mirror Novak says nothing.

“Haters are everywhere,” says Novak.

It is time for the Wimbledon semifinals.

5AM.

Musetti awakens with a start, but looks cool doing it.

He begins eating lasagna.

“You can’t eat lasagna for breakfast, Lorenzo,” says his coach Simone Tartarini, through mouthfuls of lasagna.

“YOU’RE EATING IT TOO!” says Lorenzo, as he eyes another delicious bite.

“I can do anything I want,” says Simone Tartarini, as he confiscates Musetti’s lasagna, “I’m Simone Tartarini”.

“Very true,” says Musetti as he begins eating his secondary lasagna. “When you’re right you’re right.”

It’s time for the Wimbledon semifinals.

A lot of people think this match is going to be one-sided, but it should not be understated what Musetti has already accomplished. Prior to this month, Musetti making the semifinals of Wimbledon would have been wholly unexpected. Even after thriving on grass, it still is pretty surprising. Musetti is 18-17 this season. 12 of those wins are on grass. Prior to this run, he has been really struggling to find wins, considering his talent. For him and Tartarini to keep their focus and find the tactics and results that we’re seeing this fortnight is incredible. We all think the run is over, but it’s hard to feel too comfortable with that when I couldn’t have predicted the run would even exist back in May. This is a familiar foe also, which as we saw in the Krejcikova run matters a bit at Wimbledon. Musetti has lost two 5-set classics to Djokovic (though he withdrew before the close of one after being up 2-0) at Roland Garros, and he’s played him 6 times. So far Djokovic has dominated their hardcourt matches, but Musetti is playing free here and Djokovic still hasn’t been fully tested.

The last match Djokovic played was against Rune. He played solid, and Rune couldn’t maintain his level. De Minaur unfortunately hurt his hip and had to withdraw, so it sets up a very interesting situation. Djokovic is at his second best tournament, completely fresh, and with one of the more favorable semifinalists he could have played. Him and Med or Alcaraz would make for an historic final, and I think there is no downside here. If Musetti competes well, we watch great tennis. If Djokovic gets through, we get to watch him dig in for #25 just a few weeks after he had knee surgery. The guy just Wolverines his way through draws no matter ailment seems to arrive, and since he probably only has about 2-3 more competitive years in the majors, every one of these events is a gift.

Musetti and Fritz was an interesting match. Fritz won the first, but it took a while. The set felt like it could be over in 20 minutes, but it took almost 40. The second set took an hour, and Musetti snagging a tiebreaker there was huge. Suddenly extending rallies and forcing Fritz to play a lot of tennis started to pay dividends. His legs left him a little, and so did his serve. We’ve seen a few up and down performances from round to round in this tournament (Paolini vs Navarro and vs Vekic was an entirely different person), and Fritz didn’t fare as well here as he did vs Zverev in terms of focus. Against Zverev, he was pretty willing to stay in rallies no matter what. He went for his shots, but he was not really frustrated if he didn’t see immediate success in a rally. Against Musetti, he looked frustrated. He resorted to battering away and trying to make the moon explode, and it was just slightly less than optimal against Musetti.

Isolating Musetti’s backhand is the path, but his slice was bothering Taylor a bit so that plan went out the window. I think a lot of the tour has also gotten used to playing Tsitsipas and wearing down his backhand, so when Lorenzo brings consistency and clean hitting, it can suddenly be a “where’s christmas?” scenario. Fritz struggled to generate much pace from the low slices, and he got drawn into the front-court often where he’s not at his best. It seemed like the Zverev draw just left him with only 2-3 sets of top tennis left, and so Musetti profited again from his excellent defending.

For Djokovic here, isolating Musetti’s backhand is the plan. Any one-hander against Novak’s two-hander is a losing proposition, but it isn’t about gaining outright errors. Here, it’s about Djokovic establishing that the rallies don’t end unless Musetti does something special. He’s already shown that he has a little edge in this matchup in terms of stamina, so him minimizing unforced errors and displaying patience will pay dividends. Musetti’s serving is pretty good, but Djokovic is likely to really apply pressure. The delivery isn’t that powerful, and his second serve in particular is not really dangerous. Musetti’s returning is solid right now after facing Perricard and Fritz, so Djokovic’s spot serving will take a while to pay dividends. For me, a 5 set upset win just feels like a huge moment, and huge moments involve emotional and physical output. It’s hard to compete even when you’re physically in the semifinals and your opponent is basically several rounds behind. Musetti has played 22 sets and Djokovic has played 14. Maybe Djokovic starts slow or lags a bit at the finish line, but I expect him to be a bit better than Musetti and for a big chunk of this match. Djokovic in 3-4.