2024 Wimbledon Men's Finals

Alcaraz vs Djokovic :

This is it. Exactly what we wanted, exactly when we wanted it. The GOAT (at the very least by statistics) against the future. Last year’s champ against last decade’s champion. The perfect rematch, and in some way the perfect conditions. Djokovic has made a career out of outlasting his opponents at the majors, and that trend hasn’t ended even though he’s well into his 30s. That being said, Carlos Alcaraz operates in the same way Nadal did. He plays at a pace that is so furious that most players get worn down halfway through the match, at which point they fall victim to his forehand. Djokovic’s health and stamina are legendary, but after losing last year’s final, having him afforded an easy draw makes this a much closer final.

There are no easy matches on the pro tour, but Musetti represented a challenge Djokovic was able to bypass with his normal game. He serves slightly better than Lorenzo, his backhand is more consistent, his returning is better, and he was a game better in each set that they played. Musetti has proven himself up to the task in the majors against any level of competition, but there was never a point where he looked like he could win this match. When Musetti did manage to arrive at a tiebreaker in the second set carrying a good bit of momentum, Djokovic elevated his game and his consistency and played a near perfect tiebreak. This was what I watched throughout the match. Musetti would start to apply pressure, and Djokovic would raise his level briefly. Whenever he got down in the scoreline, Novak was able to put a little more pop on his next serve and quickly net a point. He erased 0-15 in almost every service game in the 3rd set, and it just seemed like Djokovic had another level just in case things went south.

What really stood out in Musetti’s game was his power on the run. Many players have difficulty finding depth when they’re sprinting or wind up deep behind the baseline. Musetti has the ability to generate pace from there but doesn’t lose accuracy. It let him get back into many rallies where he’d been outmaneuevered, but Djokovic is a little too composed for this to really score. One of the best attributes of Djokovic’s game is how his offensive attempts are more probes than home runs. He looks for a ball to move in on, he watches his opponent’s body language as they approach the ball, and he minimizes risk and avoids being predictable. If he has the advantage and loses it, he just resets the rally and begins working again. It’s a trait that pays dividends and on a tour where so many players have immense talent, it’s also prudent. Musetti had a great run, and after the first set he elevated his level and played some incredible tennis.

Musetti had good success with dropshots, and that spells trouble for Djokovic against Alcaraz. Carlos hits harder off both wings than Musetti, but his forehand is a laser. This means his dropshots are more effective, and he disguises them well and executes them at a good clip as well. Djokovic’s knee seems fine, but Alcaraz’s pace will be the most difficult test he’s faced since the surgery. It’s a bonus for him to have skipped De Minaur, but for analyzing the match it’s a shame. Playing someone who really pushes the pace and takes time away like that would be a good look at how Djokovic is defensively. Against Musetti he was mostly neutral in points, and his deep central returns were what really paid dividends. Against Alcaraz there will be times where he has control, but a lot of scrambling will be necessary.

After losing in 5 last year, the Djokovic armor seems penetrable, and Alcaraz’s play has trended in the right direction. He’s mixing up his serve location well, and that is a big key against Novak. Djokovic tends to get a read on his opponent’s serve by the end of the first set, and he’s able to redirect serves back down the center of the court reliably in a manner that really stifles his opponents’ offense. One of the shots that Alcaraz does miss is the inside out forehand when he’s backpedaling, and his forehand production is best when he’s running to the forehand side so backpedaling and going cross-court is safer, but he tends to brush this shot a bit more than he drives it at times. For Carlos, his goal when returning serve should be to shut down the T serve on the duece side. This is Djokovic’s favorite serve to dial up on a big point, and he hit it very reliably against Musetti. Djokovic is a better returner and a better serve, so he is at least even in this match. Now for the bad news.

The bad news in this match for either side isn’t really bad news, because of the absurd quality of these two players. That being said, I feel Alcaraz has an edge in baseline rallies based off what we’ve seen. He always has a style advantage against Medvedev since he can hit bigger with less risk than Medvedev in neutral rallies (because he goes with heavy topspin), but the manner in which he beats him was more about the pace of his shots than about wearing Medvedev down. As I’ve said a few times, the court is getting very worn at the baseline and bad bounces are one of the few things that rattle Djokovic a bit. He gives the wry smile and resets, but the best conditions for Novak at Wimbledon are a perfect court and a roof. There’s no significant rain in the forecast, so it’ll be an outdoor match. I mention this because the court so far has had wind on one end. Playing into the wind means it’s a lot easier to play dropshots, this will help Alcaraz a bit even if it’s only half the time. Djokovic gets a little boost from the wind at his back when he’s serving, and while the wear and tear on the court benefits the bigger hitter usually, Novak does direct his serve returns central in the baseline so he’ll get a few back.

Djokovic fresh for this is what we want, because it represents the best match. GOAT debate aside, I really want to see him win #25. It’s a lovely number, and it creates the maximum intrigue for the Olympics and the US Open. If Alcaraz wins, the feeling is a little bit uncomfortable. It’s amazing for him, but the “darn, will Djokovic ever win a major again?” conversation is not much fun and it comes up if he gets beat here. Even if we chalk it up to knee surgery, that surgery in itself is still a spooky omen. Lucky for tennis fans, Djokovic is fresh. He’s serving and returning well enough to win a set or two, and his experience and skill are off the charts. He’s familiar with Alcaraz’s game, and consistency and spot-serving can go a long way in a finals. Alcaraz has started slow in a bunch of his matches, so I do expect Djokovic to win one of the first two sets.

What I’ve noticed about Alcaraz’s mechanics is that early in a match he can be rushed into errors on his forehand. When his opponent is hitting big, his fluid whip of a forehand can be a little off with the timing on redirects. Since Alcaraz hugs the baseline and tries to infuse pace on every ball, early in matches he can be outhit. Sinner has been able to do it, and several others have seen success early in matches. The problem with this bit of hope is that Alcaraz plays a furious pace, and doesn’t alter this approach just because he’s missing. He hits himself into form, and the effect of playing at that pace is he wears his opponents down. Once the edge is off their hitting, he has time to get a full swing, and his forehand is similar to Nadal’s in terms of the ability to generate pace. It’s a slingshot and once you’re stuck on defense, it’s really tough to escape. Djokovic is one of the best defenders on tour, and he might be able to sprint through this, but I think Alcaraz wins a long match. This final will bring an end to an amazing tournament, and this is one of the greatest matchups on tour right now. I want to see #25, so I’ll happily be wrong, but I do expect a mirror of last year. Djokovic has played less tennis, but he’s also played less tennis this year and Alcaraz hasn’t shown any signs of fatigue this week. It should be very even and I expect both players to have periods where they dominate things, but I think Alcaraz’s stamina and dropshots will eventually pay dividends. Djokovic needs to game-manage and make near perfect decisions to get through here, so it’ll be a masterclass worth watching if he can. Alcaraz in 5.