2024 US Open Women's Round Two

Swiatek vs Shibahara :

Tremendous fight for Shibahara to get past Saville in round one and it’s always fun to see a doubles specialist thrive in singles. This match against Swiatek is probably not winnable, but Iga doesn’t look comfortable with the proceedings yet. She made a lot of impatient errors against Rakhimova, and it seems like there’s probably a gap between her comfort in practice and matches on hardcourt. I would guess all her shots land there but nerves are a thing even for Grand Slam champions. Shibahara has a good first serve and a nice forehand but her backhand is a target. Swiatek in 2.

Cocciaretto vs Pavlyuchenkova :

Two lopsided wins for these two but Pavlyuchenkova’s level really impressed me. I think she’ll give Swiatek a really tough time in the next round, and while Elisabetta has a strong serve and good power, Pavs is moving the ball really well right now and seems better on defense. Pavlyuchenkova in 2.

Andreeva vs Krueger :

Krueger can hit big enough to score on Andreeva which makes this interesting. I just don’t think her percentages are up there yet to pull off wins like this. She’s similar to the early years of Rybakina and Samsonova and Sabalenka, and 31 unforced errors will let Andreeva hide her slightly weaker forehand. Andreeva in 2-3. I believe Krueger can get hot and break anyone, but can’t win the match.

Bouzkova vs Samsonova :

Qiang Wang played some solid tennis and might get things together for next season, but Samsonova is too much. I think Bouzkova is expected to lose this one but she won their previous meeting in 3 and Samsonova does struggle to keep the ball in the court at times. The match rests on Samsonova’s forehand, but it looks like she’s breakable here and Bouzkova will make her play enough tennis that it could go the distance. Samsonova in 3.

Dolehide vs Errani :

Huge upset for Dolehide. I honestly just noticed it now. She gets a big reward here in playing Errani in the second round. Bucsa just couldn’t keep the errors away against Errani and Sara is a good defender still. To me, Dolehide has the power and shape to really bother Errani, and her kick serve will be a nightmare for Errani. Dolehide in 2.

Tauson vs Shnaider :

I tuned in because Schmiedlova was playing great and she double faulted twice in a row to get broken. Tauson was struggling in this match but Schmiedlova just doesn’t play a dangerous enough game to hold onto leads. Shnaider is doing what Tauson is trying to. She’s crushing winners and not really missing. It’s some of the best tennis on tour right now, and I don’t think Tauson is going to right the ship quick enough to hold her off. Shnaider in 2.

Boulter vs Bouzas Maneiro :

Somehow, Boulter woke up after losing the first and it sets up another winnable match. Bouzas Maneiro is solidifying her place on tour, but she’s mostly winning with defense and ball movement. Boulter, if she serves well, should be able to score. It’s a tricky matchup because Katie isn’t playing her best, but she’ll have the same equation here which is ample chances to ply her offense until she finds her range. Boulter in 3.

Kenin vs Pegula :

Great win for Kenin, and no reward in sight. Pegula beat Rogers in straights and a happy retirement to Shelby. Her forehand gave us a ton of great matches. Kenin and Pegula are likely to break each other frequently, but I think Pegula’s level is just a bit higher than Kenin can maintain for an entire match. Pegula in 3.

Rybakina vs Ponchet :

Excellent result and play from Ponchet. She really belongs on tour and likely will get there soon. Rybakina had some tense moments against an inspired Destanee Aiava but she was able to find huge first serves and forehands when she needed. Her serve should carry her through here, and she hits too big in rallies for Ponchet to really outlast her. Rybakina in 2.

Wozniacki vs Zarazua :

The Woz looked very good in round one, beating Hibino 1,0 in less than an hour. Another strong baseliner awaits in round two, as Renata Zarazua got the benefit of Caroline Garcia arriving in rough form. Even when Garcia hinted at a comeback, Zarazua came up with huge backhands down the line and kept the pressure on. She’ll obviously do much better than Hibino, but I think Wozniacki will be fine in long rallies and will be able to isolate Zarazua’s forehand. Renata really scores on her backhand mostly so Wozniacki has a safe zone in rallies if she can keep it in the duece court. Wozniack in 2.

Haddad Maia vs Sorribes Tormo :

Avanesyan was cruising, but late in the first I saw BHM run in and crush a swinging volley. It looked like she realized that cutting off the court makes life so much tougher on a good defender, and Avanesyan hits with excellent length on the run but the balls are all down the center of the court. From there, Bella looked incredible. She should win this match too, as Tormo is a similar defender to Avanesyan but with even less power. Haddad Maia looks great, and this draw is stacked right now with players in their best form. BHM in 2.

Bondar vs Kalinskaya :

Bondar score a nice and somewhat rare hardcourt win, and now faces Anna Kalinskaya. Kalinskaya has dealt with injury issues almost constantly in her career, but she should win this matchup. Bondar has a lot of power but Kalinskaya can expose her slightly slow lateral movement (Bondar is a bit taller). Kalinskaya in 2-3.

Osaka vs Muchova :

Oooh. Idk. I was kinda cruising through these and this match looks tough to call. I really liked Osaka’s focus in round one, but Muchova was able to close out Volynets in comfortable fashion which isn’t easy. They’re arriving in very similar form, and if Osaka is able to close this out in two then she’s likely to go very far in this draw. I just don’t think I’ve seen her back up many wins this season, and Muchova has the defensive skills that allow her to frustrate an opponent. This is a good match for tennis because Osaka needs these tests to get back to her best level. For now though, I think Muchova outlasts her in 3. I don’t think Karolina can score much on her own, but she moves the ball well and Osaka isn’t that sharp yet.

Lepchenko vs Potapova :

Lucky results for Lepchenko getting a withdrawal in round one. I picked Fruhvirtova, and nothing makes you feel smart like picking a player to win who isn’t even healthy enough to play. Potapova and Fernandez played one of the highest level matches of the entire first round, and Potapova is an excellent frontrunner. I think two lefties in a row is always a help in the second matchup, and I don’t think Lepchenko can run the required lateral sprints to win this one the way that Fernandez could (well, couldn’t). Potapova in 2.

Putintseva vs Wang Xinyu :

Rodionova really looked good in round one and it’s a shame she couldn’t hang on. It sets up a match Putintseva will be fine with but hasn’t won yet. Wang is 3-0 against Putintseva, and it’s pretty much because her offense is legit. Noskova got a bit tired against Putintseva, but Wang tends to heat up and finish strong. Tricky here because Putintseva is playing her best tennis, and Wang is not, but it’s hard to argue with the h2h. Wang in 3 sets where the first looks like she cannot possibly win.

Pliskova vs Paolini :

Paolini and Andreescu was incredible. Andreescu played a great first set, but she injured something in her leg and the outcome seemed pretty inevitable. Still, somehow she wound up at 4-4 in the 3rd after trailing by a break throughout. If you have time, go watch the highlights and the exchange at net; it was hilarious and if you needed a reason to love Andreescu it’ll give you one. Here I think Pliskova can hang on until she can’t. Sherif almost got her, and Paolini will expose her lack of speed. These are not the servebot courts. Paolini in 2.

Krejcikova vs Ruse :

Krejcikova winning each round will make her opponents more and more uncomfortable. She can struggle with errors in patches, but her ballstriking is legit. Ruse is the type of player who can play at this level, but in general is hit or miss with her tennis. She’s a junior phenom who just hasn’t really panned out yet. The peculiar thing to me (obligatory gambling is bad don’t gamble disclaimer) is that Ruse is +200 for this match. That’s a lot of respect for a player ranked 100 spots back playing a multiple time grand slam champion that they played last year on hardcourt and lost 6-1, 6-4 to. Just get the feeling that this match will be closer than expected. Maybe Krejcikova wakes up late, or maybe her rough patches against Bassols continue. Krejcikova in 3.

Badosa vs Townsend :

Badosa is playing great and Townsend is also. For me, Badosa will probably win based on stamina and consistency. Townsend can score on anyone, but she also throws in a lot of errors. She beat Trevisan, but it was very close int he first set. If you just look at their recent wins, it looks close but Badosa should win here. Badosa also beat her in 2 at the AO, and her level now is much higher. Badosa in 2.

Azarenka vs Burel :

I don’t want to talk about it. Let’s talk about it. Stephens has indicated she’s retiring, and she was a great champion. She also is one of the toughest players to watch lose. Burel was playing well in round one, but got zipped. She was down breaks in the second and third but somehow won both. It just seems like Stephens got a bit lost out there, and stopped moving. Maybe fatigue, but the sudden inability to hit the ball has been present in a lot of her losses, and it was a very strange one to watch. Burel moves on to face Azarenka, who won’t falter in similar spots. Azarenka had a tough one with Starodubtseva, but after losing a lopsided first set she ran away with the match. Burel can be a really tough out and she’s playing solid, but Azarenka should beat her in straights.

Parry vs Wang Yafan :

Sakkari retired, and Parry and Wang inherit this nice section of the draw. Parry and Wang had a great match I bet, but I caught almost none of it. I have to be honest when this happens, because while I love Parry, I really didn’t see more than a game of it and I thought Wang was winning comfortably behind her forehand. I don’t see a way for Parry nor Wang to beat the other quickly, because both are excellent from the baseline and have great skill on defense. I think Parry hits the bigger ball, but she’s worse on hardcourt. Tough spot and I’m not qualified to guess. Someone in 3.

Navarro vs Rus :

Navarro should roll here, but Aranxta Rus is crushing forehands right now. It’s a good test for Navarro, and she might drop a set, but she should win the match. Navarro in 2-3.

Dart vs Kostyuk :

Kostyuk took care of last weeks champion McCartney Kessler, and she gets a similar opponent in round two. Dart is solid, but she lacks the big power to put Kostyuk off her game. That means it becomes mostly about Marta’s percentages. 54% first serves is not bad. 25/26 winners to unforced errors is not the best. It just looks like Kostyuk will continue to win by being the slightly bigger hitter here, and the question is how long Dart can extend rallies. Kostyuk in 2.

Svitolina vs Kalinina :

Interesting. Kalinina has never won a set against Svitolina. She looked really good in round one against Dodin, but I guess I have to ignore that? It’s hard to, and Svitolina has dropped a set or two lately in unexpected spots. I kind of expect Kalinina to come out firing, but idk if it’s enough to win a set. Eventually the errors will flow. Svitolina in 2-3.

Maria vs Gauff :

Maria played solid in round one and Sierra was a little too impatient. Maria will likely frustrate Gauff into some errors also, but Coco is playing decent so far this week. In my head I always picture playing dealing with the slices fine. Yes, they are endless, but they aren’t scoring on you. It’s a hitting drill, and while it’s difficult, you choose how long the match is. Anyway, Gauff should never lose this match, but Maria is always tricky. Gauff in 2.

Zheng vs Andreeva :

Zheng and Anisimova was the best match of the first round, and that’s saying a lot. They hit so many clean winners, and by the end of the match Zheng was playing at a level that I think can get her the title. Getting a difficult first round is often a gift in disguise, because it leaves you in peak form for the next few rounds which are subjectively easier. Erika Andreeva is playing great tennis right now, but I don’t think she’ll be able to deal with Zheng’s power, and Qinwen’s serve is worth a lot of points. I just can’t believe some of the running forehands Zheng hit, and I’m excited to see her back on the court. Zheng in 2 close sets.

Uchijima vs Niemeier :

Niemeier played a 3 hour and 10 minute match in round one against Yastremska, and her reward is an opponent that she won against in straights in their previous meeting (Tokyo 23). Uchijima is a player whose style I love, but she tends to thrive more when she’s the bigger hitter. I think this will be close because Niemeier is struggling with her form, but her serve looked good at times in round one and Uchijima might not be able to outlast her. Niemeier in 3.

Vekic vs Minnen :

Oooh. Many serves and aces and winners and forehands and smashes here. I thought Birrell could frustrate Vekic, but Donna played solid. If she plays solid, she wins against Minnen. Greetje has a really good serve and forehand, and is in good form lately, but I think Vekic is just a bit more durable from the baseline. Vekic in 2-3.

Stearns vs Kasatkina :

Kasatkina was actually the first person I walked by at the US Open. I couldn’t even believe it. I don’t even mean the first tennis player. I walked in the gate and she was like “hello i’m famous” and walked by with her team, who look preposterously cool. Her and Stearns is starting to feel like a rivalry, but Stearns only has one win. Peyton is constantly improving, and Kasatkina is in a rough patch, so this is a tricky spot. For me, Kasatkina on these slower courts is going to be a very tough out. I think Stearns is dangerous in this spot because she can move the ball well and has similar speed and approaches to Darya, but I don’t know if she can outlast her. This is probably one of the closest matches of the day. Kasatkina in 3.

Keys vs Jovic :

Ok. I tried to call for Keys to lose, and I am done with that. She looked fine in round one, and Siniakova played well but never got a look at a set. Madison found some good backhands and served okay, but her forehand was the difference. I think this next match is tricky, but she’ll have a lot of time to solve the puzzle. Maya Joint is very consistent, and despite a late run from Siegemund, she played great in round one. She can extend rallies and earn every Keys error, but I don’t think there will be enough to get her through. Keys looks like a sneaky threat in this event. Keys in 2.

Tomljanovic vs Mertens :

It’s become really tough to gauge when Mertens is going to win now. Kudermetova was struggling and almost went a set and a break up on her, and now Mertens plays an opponent who she’s had close matches with. Tomljanovic isn’t at her best, but she hits the ball a ton and that makes it tough for Elyse to utilize her skill and deft shotmaking. It feels like another match where she’ll be trying to outlast her opponent and that’s always risky against a player who can lock into form like Ajla. Just a really tough spot with two players who haven’t shown great signs of consistency lately. Mertens in 3.

Alexandrova vs Jovic :

Alexandrova is supposed to crush Jovic, but she won’t. Linette was supposed to beat Jovic, but she didn’t. Jovic is not a household name yet, but she will be. The level of composure she showed in round one was nuts. She plays well and hits the court. The juniors have an interesting benefit of being able to take huge rips and not really sail the ball long. Jovic is ripping backhands and they’re landing at the baseline, where on the same shot Keys is flicking at the ball and worrying about it hitting the grandstand. Juniors also are rallying so much more that their contact and defensive choices (including moonballs) seem so much more automatic. No, that won’t work as a longterm strategy on tour, but when you’re trying to put away a junior and they moonball you suddenly there’s pressure. Idk what I’m doing. Maybe it’s 2am. Maybe I’m sleepwriting. But I think Alexandrova is going to lose this match. Jovic in 3.

Bronzetti vs Sabalenka :

I don’t wanna have to play Bronzetti, and there’s always the threat that her aggressive and consistent baselining will give Sabalenka trouble. There is also the potential that she plays Sabalenka into form and Aryna wins the tournament. Let’s find out. Sabalenka in 2.