2024 US Open Women's Round One

WTA Singles :

Swiatek vs Rakhimova :

Iga Swiatek has become the dominant force on the women’s tour, but there is still a great deal of excitement every week. Her game can elevate to unreal levels, but her dominance on clay and slight vulnerabilities on hardcourt and grass keep all her opponents trying their best. Despite dishing out a number of breadsticks and donuts this season, she has also dropped some sets in unexpected spots. Maybe this is frustrating for fans, but I love seeing great champions challenged, and that’s what she’ll get this coming fortnight. There are some great coaches out there, but solving hardcourt is something that Iga will only do by grinding away in these big moments, and for a champion who is so accomplished that we often forget she’s still young, I think there are still yet improvements to come.

This first round is a good warmup. Rakhimova played well in qualifying, but her game is based mostly around driving the ball in cross-court patterns and outlasting her opponent with consistency and power. Swiatek is solid enough to deal with this, and her ability to redirect should expose Rakhimova’s slightly slower movement. I don’t think Rakhimova serves well enough to hang on here even if Iga starts slow. Swiatek in 2.

Saville vs Shibahara :

Good chance for an upset here. Daria Saville is a really solid defender and her forehand can be effective when she’s playing, but she hasn’t played since Wimbledon so a slow start is entirely possible. Given Shibahara’s run through qualifying where she zipped Zavatska in the first set, a slow start for Saville will spell a lot of trouble for the higher Australian. Shibahara also just got past Arielle Hartono in the final round of qualifying who is a player that makes you play at least as many balls as Saville. This could be close because Shibahara has dropped sets against most of her opponents so far, but I think she’ll be a little more able to focus on her shot selection where Saville will have to concentrate on both avoiding errors and moving the ball. Shibahara in 3.

Cocciaretto vs Baindl :

Cocciaretto being a server makes her lose some peculiar matches, but she’s way more active than Baindl on tour. Katerina was a regular threat in the early rounds at majors, but she’s a bit past her prime and Cocciaretto should have be able to get through in the end. Elisabetta has a tendency to trade lopsided sets so this could get tricky against someone whose game mostly consists of keeping the ball in play, but Cocciaretto in 2-3.

Preston vs Pavlyuchenkova :

Impressive run for Preston who was an underdog in I think every match in qualifying. She’s shown promise and qualifying for a major is a really good sign. That being said, her style might not be the best for this matchup. She tends to be fairly straightforward and hits hard and has a solid backhand. I did see enough unforced errors in qualifying to make me think Pavlyuchenkova won’t be under immense pressure, and Pavs is fairly consistent and mostly loses to players with big offenses who can expose her movement. Pavs has heavier shots than Preston and should gradually wear her down. Pavlyuchenkova in 2.

Andreeva vs Osorio :

This would have been simpler a week ago, but Osorio played some good ball in Monterrey so this could be close in some sections. Andreeva has opened up the North American swing with a much stronger serving performance than she usually has, so the US Open is another exciting moment for her. It’s crazy to be lumping second week pressure on a 17 year old, so I’ll just try to enjoy the tennis. Osorio is a tremendously quick baseliner and her and Andreeva should have really exciting rallies. For me, Andreeva is just a little more stable with her level so while I think Osorio can outduel her some of the time, I think her dips will be more pronounced. Andreeva in 3.

Zhang vs Krueger :

Zhang used to be a great forehand and a tremendous offense, but since her return to the tour she hasn’t found that level. Krueger was a flight risk last season due to her aggressive shot selection, but she’s made improvements and this season she’s been winning the matches she’s supposed to. Krueger in 2.

Lys vs Bouzkova :

After watching the qualifiers it’s hard for me to not like some of them to compete well in the main draw, but this is the classic letdown spot for Lys. She seems to be really dominant at the level slightly off tour, but the lopsided beatdowns flip at times once she gets to a match where she probably should be even. Her game is great, but Bouzkova is a wall and she’ll be fresh while Lys has played a whole week of tennis. Bouzkova won their previous meeting but Lys wasnt 100% physically and had to withdraw. Overall, a good run for Lys, but her keeping the run going post qualifying would be a new phenomenon. Bouzkova in 2-3.

Wang vs Samsonova :

Qiang Wang used to play at this level, but Samsonova is in good form and her forehand has been firing well the last few weeks. She’s prone to errors but I don’t think Wang can play a full match at that level yet. Samsonova in 2.

Collins vs Dolehide :

Dolehide has a huge kick serve and a great forehand, so she’s a threat to maintain a lead against anyone. Collins has never dropped a set to her though, so it’s hard to really justify calling for it to happen here at the last major of Collins’ career when she’s having one of her best years ever in terms of consistency on court. She lost to Erika Andreeva last week, but it’s unclear how much effort top players are putting in at a 250 the week before a major. Collins in 2.

Bucsa vs Errani :

This match raises the exact question that surrounds Bucsa, can she keep the ball in the court. Her offensive power is absurd for her size and stature, but she trades sets too often to really get momentum on tour. Lots of players struggle to win matches, but every single player on tour’s belief goes up once they get to a third. Errani is still winning on tour just by extending rallies and minimizing errors, but she’s a step slow and doesn’t have a lot of power. It’s the perfect opponent for both players, but the match is on Bucsa’s racquet. I like Errani’s side, but it probably won’t be easy. Sara in 3.

Schmiedlova vs Tauson :

I don’t love using the h2h for results, but their first and only meeting was in Cleveland a week ago. Tauson won in 3, and since she’s the more accomplished hardcourt player and was fairly inactive leading up to that, I expect her to win again. Tauson in 2.

Podoroska vs Shnaider :

Shnaider has titles this year on every single surface, and she’s hitting the ball incredibly clean. Podoroska’s forehand is starting to cook and she played a nice match against Frech last week, but her backhand remains a target (bad because Shnaider is a powerful lefty) and her strategy here might not work. She loves to rush the net, and Shnaider hits the ball entirely too hard for this to work if her approach shots aren’t solid, which they tend not to be. Shnaider in 2.

Boulter vs Sasnovich :

Sasnovich is back! Classic tricky spot where one player is thriving at a lower level and the other has been losing at a higher one. Sasnovich has the skill and experience to compete here, but if Boulter finds her serve she should outlast her. This week I was talking to someone who was extremely sleepy and decided to ask them who they thought would win this match. They asked which players wears pink, so look out for that. It’ll probably be Boulter. In all seriousness, sleepy people should always be trusted, and hugged. Boulter in 3.

Bouzas Maneiro vs Martic :

I’d normally like Martic here but Bouzas Maneiro’s game is trending upwards. She had a good run in Cleveland, because Gracheva and almost snagging Siniakova, and that’s about the level that Martic brings. Martic tends to win against other skill players but if someone can really grind it out her backhand errors can become a slight issue. Maneiro is a great defender and seems adept at breaking serve, so while I do expect Petra’s forehand to cause damage, I think she’ll get outlasted in the humid conditions in NY. It looks like 80 degree weather all week but it can still be difficult, and the air quality is not great. Maneiro in 3, but this is really dependent on Martic’s level. Her best tennis can win this simply because Maneiro’s offense is not defined yet.

Raducanu vs Kenin :

Two ex-champions in a strange portion of their career meet here. It should be a great match since Kenin showed signs of life in Cleveland last week, but Raducanu is somehow the more consistent player here. She’s having her first decent year since the US Open win, and the crowd will give her some love even though she’s playing an American. I find Raducanu’s mechanics and length more repeatable right now, so while Kenin has the ability to play at this level, I don’t think she’ll be the stronger player for more than a set. Raducanu in 2-3.

Rogers vs Pegula :

Rogers has announced she’s retiring, so this is probably her last match. Her career featured a number of great matches and a constantly replayed Tennis Channel bag check, but hopefully she’s remembered for the former. Rogers’ forehand can still do damage, but she hasn’t shown the level this season that it would take to bother Pegula. Pegula will always be a threat to win any big hardcourt tournament, and this is a simple one to start the fortnight. Pegula in 2.

Rybakina vs Aiava :

Tough opener given Aiava’s level in qualifying, but easy opener given how well Rybakina can play. The upsets I’ve seen Rybakina suffer this season have been against solid defensive baseliners, so this offense/power vs offense/power matchup is something she should do fine in. I’m always wary of a slow start for her in majors and she’s had some health issues, but she seems fine for this one. Rybakina in 2.

Ponchet vs Zheng :

Ponchet played great in qualifying and she couldn’t have landed in a better spot. She’s really consistent, but struggled at times to hold serve. Winning by outlasting your opponent from the baseline doesn’t always work, but Saisai Zheng does exactly that and she isn’t in good form nor is she as active as Ponchet. I think Ponchet can isolate her forehand and win, and since she just played Mandlik she’s fine with long rallies. Ponchet in 2.

Wozniacki vs Hibino :

This could go for 3 hours. Nao Hibino isn’t winning titles, but she’s playing well and her speed and consistency make her a tough out. Wozniacki will be able to win every rally, but it will take her so many shots to do so that her stamina could come into play. There have been a few matches this season where she was flat by the second set, so this is an interesting test. Hibino’s serve (luckily for Caro) is not strong enough to really put this away, but it should be frustrating for Woz and it’ll feature a lot of long rallies. Wozniacki in 2 long sets.

Zarazua vs Garcia :

Garcia hasn’t played since the Olympics so I really don’t know what to expect here. She’s very good but her losses feel random at times. Zarazua will make her play forever, but even if she gets the lead she doesn’t serve big enough to close out. Garcia should win in 2, but this feels like a letdown spot for Garcia.

Haddad Maia vs Avanesyan :

Haddad Maia is just not thriving this season, so playing someone who is in decent form and doesn’t miss much will be difficult. Avanesyan seems to be able to lock into a level and not drop from it once she finds it. Her speed and retrieving are excellent, and she keeps her depth and sends the ball low over the net when she’s drawn wide so it’s hard to really beat her in a rally without hitting multiple winners. Haddad has the bigger serve and forehand, but they’re trending in two different directions. Avanesyan in 2.

Sorribes Tormo vs Noel :

I don’t really know Noel, but she’s up to 784 in the rankings and she has some promising wins. She beat Topalova and Ardonada, and she took a set off Kayla Day. Tormo finding a win against Yafan Wang means the challenger doesn’t have a great shot here, but she might be very good in the future. Tormo in 2.

Bondar vs Pera :

Big giant lefty offense vs big giant righty offense. Pera won their two previous meetings on clay, and she’s more capable here and playing at home. It’s tricky since Pera’s level can disappear for months at a time, but she should open as the favorite here. Pera in 3.

Davis vs Kalinskaya :

Kalinskaya hits bigger than Davis and is just as consistent. Kalinskaya in 2.

Ostapenko vs Osaka :

This is the best match of the first round, and it’s really unfortunate for both. Ostapenko has lost two matches in a row, but also beat Badosa in Toronto who’s one of the sharper players on hardcourt right now. Osaka is still showing signs of life in the comeback followed by frustrating performances. i don’t think she has the mental stamina yet to go on a deep run, but the tennis is there and maybe a familiar location will let her play freely. Ostapenko should win but I think Osaka’s speed and ability to defend to the corners will let her frustrate Jelena. Add in that Osaka hits a very fast ball, and Ostapenko might not have time to really generate her offense. Osaka is just a little better in every department. Osaka in 2.

Muchova vs Volynets :

Volynets has been one of the most consistent qualifers in the majors on tour, and it’s nice to see that those days are over. The ability to extend rallies and move the ball in skillful ways is a hallmark of her game, but against tour level opponents it seems like she struggles to really be a dominant force because she doesn’t hit the ball that hard. Muchova is having a more middling season in terms of consistent play, but she has more power and enough skill to deal with what Volynets does. Basically, even if Muchova falls behind, she will have chances to lock in and grind Volynets down. Muchova in 2-3.

Fruhvirtova vs Lepchenko :

Interesting match here. Lepchenko is on fire, and played great in qualifying. The only problem I have with announcing her as the winner here is that none of those players are as good as Brenda Fruhvirtova. Brenda hasn’t really played any hardcourt tennis yet so she’s not really reliable here, but she has great shot tolerance and baseline ability, and her opponent is much older and just played three extra matches. I think this will go Lepchenko’s way until it doesn’t, and even though Fruhvirtova hasn’t been active or thriving, I expect this to go three, and if it does I like Fruhvirtova in those 3. It goes against my usual feeling to fade a strong qualifier but I just think Lepchenko came in in good form and had a pretty good draw since Zidansek is not living up to her name currently.

Potapova vs Fernandez :

Sometimes matches are not really worth throwing a dart at because of all the conflicting info. Potapova just won Cleveland and is playing excellent. Fernandez lost in that tournament to someone who Potapova left on 1,2 (Bogdan). Fernandez has never lost a match to Potapova, but the last 3 were on clay. In closing, there is a lot of information in both directions. I think Potapova is the better hardcourt player in general, but Fernandez found her best level recently so this should be pretty close. Potapova has a great record when she wins the first set so who gets off to the best start should dictate a lot here. Big mental test for Potapova, and despite her form I think she does struggle with defensive baseliners. Fernandez in 3.

Putintseva vs Noskova :

Putintseva just beat Gauff, and Noskova just beat Svitolina and Wang in straight sets so this is likely to be really good. I don’t think there is going to be a more high quality but less viewed match in the first round than this. Noskova’s power and flat hitting will be excellent on these courts, but the slightly slower than usual conditions mean hitting through Putintseva will be difficult. I always expect a long match with Putintseva, but Noskova beating Svitolina in straights is exactly the level you need to win here. Noskova in 3.

Wang Xinyu vs Rodionova :

Caveat emptor. For quite some time now I have gotten Rodionova matches wrong. She stays just off tour in terms of her ranking but she wins at the qualifying/challenger level frequently. Beating Sawangkaew may not make you a household name, but it took a lot of solid tennis. Given Wang’s recent loss to McCartney Kessler, a solid baseliner has potential to give her trouble. The problem with writing a prediction for all the matches is that some equations are brand new. To me, Wang’s forehand solves a lot of problems for her in this match, but the days where she’s spraying unforced errors are frequent and that just lands a solid baseliner like Rodionova right at the finish line. For the most part, all the players in the top 100-200 range are capable of beating each other, but I guess assuming someone will struggle is just as uncertain as assuming someone will play well. Rodionova’s level is assured, but Wang should have enough power to get through. Wang in 3.

Sherif vs Pliskova :

Sherif had a really bad run at the beginning of the year but she managed to salvage her season with some good play on clay. The rest of the year is basically a freeroll, not because she can’t win but because any result would mark an improvement over her performance on hardcourt so far. Pliskova is a bit too good on hardcourt, but if you’re going to try to outlast any huge offense on tour she’s the one you’d probably pick. Her flat hitting and tall stature mean she can spray errors at times, and she isn’t exactly at her best this year. It’s weird to write all of that and then write Pliskova in 2. Pliskova in 2.

Andreescu vs Paolini :

Maybe I was wrong about the best match of the first round. This has potential. Andreescu can certainly win this match, and if she does the crowd will get their money’s worth. Only her best tennis is going to hit through Paolini, and she lost to her twice already. Paolini is coming off a vengeance loss against Andreeva, but she’s still playing well and her defensive speed makes all of Andreescu’s errors a big problem. Andreescu’s peak tennis features excellent serving and good court sense so she’ll be able to score, but there are frequent lapses in her level and dropping a set against Paolini is not ideal since Jasmine can push the pace extremely well even in a third set. Should be a great contest, but I think Paolini will outlast her in 3. Honestly, people complained about the random champions at majors in the WTA but all these ex-champions in the draw coupled with the increased depth on tour now makes things really good.

Krejcikova vs Bassols :

Krejcikova went from error prone and considering retirement to winning a major twice now in her career. I’m not sure what to make of her chances this week since the conditions are not ideal for her, but her skill level means she should win these early rounds. Bassols was perfect in qualifying and she will test Krejcikova’s percentages. I still recall Bronzetti beating Barbora just by staying steady from the baseline, and Bassols has a similar path. Again though, assuming these players will show up in bad form doesn’t make a lot of sense. Krej hasn’t played since the Olympics so there is a chance this could be tricky, and I don’t really like her lack of matchplay in hardcourt this year at all. Maybe the best course of action is to expect more of the same. Errors, but the ability to find her best game by the end of the match. Krejcikova in 3.

Ruse vs Grabher :

Ruse was one of the players whose future seemed really bright. She came up around the same time as Anisimova and Gauff and a few other players who kinda found their final form, but she’s had some middling years lately. In qualifying she was dominant in terms of ballstriking, so she was able to get through. This first round is a huge gift, as Grabher has been off tour for a while and has only been playing on clay. Grabher is incredibly fit, but not match-fit. Coming through qualifying is a huge bonus for Ruse, as exploiting an inconsistent opponent mostly just requires recent repetitions. Ruse in 2.

Trevisan vs Townsend :

Going off Cincinnati results, Townsend is supposed to roll here. She beat Kasatkina, Dolehide, and Volynets. Not the hugest set of upsets, but beating Kasatkina and Volynets tell me she’s playing fairly consistent tennis, and you need that to beat Trevisan. Trevisan hasn’t ever been a huge threat on hardcourt, but she won their last match in 3 in Cincinnati 2023. Since Townsend is prone to fluctuations in level, I think this might be somewhat close for a set. Basically, I don’t really trust Townsend here to crush Trevisan as expected, but I do think the conditions are much better for her and her having such a deep toolset and such magnificent skill will allow her to ease off some of the pressure that comes from playing a good defender. Townsend in 2-3.

Golubic vs Badosa :

Golubic is a fine player, but Badosa seems back to her old levels and it’s pretty refreshing to watch. She’s tall so she gets some good angle on her serves out wide, and her defense and the weight of her shots pairs well with that. I don’t think Golubic is ever a safe opponent but lately she’s been stuck off tour most of the time. Badosa in 2.

Azarenka vs Starodubtseva :

Staro has lost some close matches lately so it’s great to see her quality. It was a difficult final round against Sonay Kartal and it won’t be much easier in the first round here. Azarenka plays a very similar game to Starodubsteva. They both hit the ball with good pace, they both make clean contact, but are excellent at breaking their opponents when they need to. Neither can really hold serve efficiently, so while I do think Azarenka should win, it might take a while. Azarenka withdrew from her last match against Peyton Stearns, but really she’s beaten all the players around Starodubtseva’s level that she’s faced in the last month or so. Azarenka in 2.

Burel vs Stephens :

These two met in Dubai earlier this year and Stephens won in three. So far this month, Sloane has played terribly. She lost quickly to Minnen in her last outting, and it looked very much like the disinterested Stephens that we often see in minor events. Here, she’s at the major she won in her home country, so she should be fairly motivated. For me, Burel is tough to predict. She wins sets as an underdog quite often, but the lack of a big serve or power in her game makes it so that every match she plays is fairly close and features shifts in momentum. I think she’s good enough and smart enough to frustrate Sloane into errors, but a long match will give Stephens a chance to utilize her power and she’ll be slightly more able to hold serve in a big moment since her serve has more pace on it. Stephens in 3.

Parry vs Wang Xiyu :

Good match here. Wang has a huge lefty forehand which should be a problem for Parry since she plays with a one-handed backhand. She won both their previous meetings, including this year’s Australian Open, but both those were three setters. Parry can play top 20 level tennis, but it feels like she really only gets on a roll when she’s at her absolute peak. Wang in 2.

Wang Yafan vs Sakkari :

Sakkari having not played since the Olympics scares me. Maria is playing well and hits the ball bigger than Yafan off both wings, so she’s just supposed to win this match. Everyone who watches tennis knows she makes things hard on herself though. Her decision-making on the court shows that she’s not really comfortable with the pressure she perceives out there, and if you’re being results-oriented about tennis it’s hard to really get the best out of yourself. It’s pretty impressive that while most people are a bit dismayed by Sakkari’s results, she’s still in the top ten. She should win this in 2 since Wang is mostly looking to extend rallies and Sakkari is more than physically capable of playing for a few hours, but Sakkari’s choices and offensive shot selection will play a big role in whether this is simple or terrifying for her fans.

Navarro vs Blinkova :

As I’m writing this Navarro is still playing in Monterrey so her level coming into this could be tricky to assess. The second day after a deep run is usually when fatigue sets in the worst, and Blinkova can be really sticky sometimes. Navarro did just drop a set to Osorio who plays a similar style of nonstop rally tennis, but Blinkova hasn’t really done much in the past few weeks, and Navarro at her home slam should have good crowd support and comfort. Navarro in 2-3.

Bogdan vs Rus :

Bogdan has won all four of their previous meetings. Both these players have struggled at times this year but both brought their best tennis last week. It should be a close match at times but I think Bogdan having such an effective backhand helps her a lot against Rus’ lefty forehand. Bogdan in 3.

Paquet vs Dart :

Paquet is one of the few players I’ve had a chance to see play at the US Open in person and her serve is excellent and her offense is crisp there. With a wildcard, she doesn’t have much pressure and Dart isn’t exactly unbeatable. Dart has a solid all-around game but lacks the power and serving to really put anyone away quickly. If she can outlast Pacquet’s serving ability or drag her into long rallies I like her chances, but there’s no quick win for either side here. Dart in 3.

Kessler vs Kostyuk :

Kessler is still in Cleveland, but she seems to have a great gastank so this should be a fun match. Kostyuk is playing her best ever this year and is up to 19 in the rankings. She hits big and defends well. I don’t think she can really beat the top players on tour, but she’s almost to that level. It’s just a consistency thing, she’s slightly more error prone and doesn’t have a specific game plan out there some of the time. A few rally ball errors on the backhand side can creep in, and despite being a great competitor she can become visibly upset on the court at times which gives her opponents hope and belief. Kessler playing at home is a tough out for anyone, but Kostyuk should outlast her. Kostyuk in 2 close sets.

Svitolina vs Carle :

Carle is mostly a clay specialist, but she’s been able to win a few hardcourt matches which is a huge boost for her ability to stay in the top 100. Svitolina is too big of an ask since both play defensive tennis and Svitolina hits bigger. Svitolina in 2.

Dodin vs Kalinina :

Fortuitous spot for both. Kalinina has really struggled and has lost the like like 10/11 to right handed opponents on hardcourt. Dodin hasn’t played since Wimbledon but is still ranked 83 so she got direct entry. Both players have huge serves and great power, and both lose to their unforced errors. Kalinina is the slightly more active player right now, and is a little bit more stable. There’s nothing reliable here, but Kalinina in 2.

Maria vs Sierra :

Sierra has been almost out of this tournament a few times. She trailed by a set and a break against Arconada, and lost the first set against Seidel. Still, the more she plays the better her level elevates, and I think her run continues here. She plays in fairly safe patterns, but in the last round once she got a lead late in the match she started to open up. Her backhand down the line is extremely difficult to read as it’s a late shift in swing, and she hits the ball solid. Coming from the clay background, her ballstriking is just very reliable in a rhythm, and that’ll be a huge key against Tatjana Maria. Generally, Maria’s constant slices (forehand and backhand) would take a young player out of her game, but Maria has been a little bit vulnerable in the past few months and Sierra is patient enough to put in the work to win eventually. Sierra in 3.

Gracheva vs Gauff :

Gauff’s issues on offense have improved greatly, but the expectations are that she just will win all the time. The problem is that when she doesn’t, it’s almost always the same conversation. Her forehand technique seems a little bit off, and she double faults at times. This is a player ranked in the top 5 at an incredibly young age who literally won a Grand Slam and has a resume to get her into a hall of fame already, but as players go through their career fans want to see them push the limits. I don’t know if fixing her forehand while on tour is that simple, but it’s worth it. In the meantime, Gauff’s defensive ability means no one should really be able to beat her without playing the match of their career. She’ll be focused here, and while Gracheva can move the ball incredibly well she will most likely get outlasted here. Gauff just needs to revert for a while to hitting the ball hard and using her reliable attributes, and wait for the offense to flow naturally. Gauff in 3.

Zheng Q. vs Anisimova :

This has potential to be a huge upset. Anisimova is a player that can beat anyone. Her groundstrokes are extremely fast and hit to small targets. Her serve is efficient when it lands, and she is a very aggressive returner. Basically, Zheng’s speed I think is not good enough to guarantee that Anisimova is shut down. Amanda just beat Kasatkina, Kalinskaya, Sabalenka, and Navarro in Toronto. I don’t know if you can find a harder draw in the WTA. Zheng is still winning matches but she was priced to lose to Pavlyuchenkova last week in Cincinnati and she did lose. Prior to the tragic loss of her father, Anisimova was projected to be a top 10 player and very little has changed about her ability. It’s so hard losing a parent or a loved one, so her struggles for the past few seasons are understandable, but it’s also easy to cheer for her. I don’t need Zheng to lose, but I want Anisimova to win. If Zheng serves well, this is an even match. Amanda returns well, but Zheng can take the racquet out of your hands. If Zheng’s first serve percentage is low, I do think the upset happens. Anisimova in 3.

Andreeva vs Yuan :

This should be a close match. Erika Andreeva has been quiet lately while her sister gets most of the attention on tour, but she has a heavy forehand and can really play solid tennis. She beat Danielle Collins and Kalinina last week, and best Tauson in Cincinnati. The last time she played Yuan she lost in a close two setter (1 tb, 6-2) and I think the issue is weight of shot. Yuan is very consistent also, and she hits the ball harder overall than Andreeva. If Yuan is controlling rallies it’s just hard for Andreeva to score. Yuan in 3.

Korpatsch vs Uchijima :

Uuchijima isn’t winning a lot of high profile matches, but she’s making her way sneakily on tour. She was able to defeat Tomova and Kayla Day in Toronto, and took a set off Peyton Stearns in Cleveland. Korpatsch is struggling to find wins on hardcourt, so Uchijima should win here. She basically wins whenever she’s the bigger hitter, and she will be here. Korpatsch always acquits herself well, but Uchijima in 2.

Niemeier vs Yastremska :

The unforced error count in this one should be fun. Yastremska is playing less than stellar tennis recently, and Niemeier is in a slump also. Should be fun big hitting but guessing a winner will be tough. Yastremska in 3.

Vekic vs Birrell :

Vekic has had some huge results this year, and hardcourt isn’t exactly a bad surface for her. She’ll have a tough opener against Birrell, who was pretty solid in qualifying. Birrell has a win against Vekic in their previous meeting, so I wouldn’t really feel safe backing Vekic here given how well Birrell is playing. She should win, but a 3 set loss to Krueger doesn’t really give us an indication of how reliable she’ll be this week. Birrel in 3. It doesn’t feel like her game is capable of beating Vekic easily, but she’s extending rallies and I think Vekic might have trouble digging in.

Minnen vs Frech :

Minnen is a bit like Isner, even though she’s probably in trouble, the match can still be close. Frech is defending incredibly well, and is very active on tour right now. I just think Minnen will have a hard time beating her for two entire sets. Frech in 3.

Stearns vs Tsurenko :

Honestly, Stearns has the type of shot selection that makes tennis fun to watch. She constantly is creating angles and heights and plays easy offense behind her forehand when she has time. This is a good draw for her since Kasatkina is having a rough patch, and Tsurenko is a must-win match if you’re playing well. Tsurenko can be a very tough out, but hse just lost in straights to Bouzas Maneiro and Kalinskaya. I’ll ignore that she beat Andreescu before that because that wouldn’t help make my point. Anyway, I like Stearns. In 2.

Cristian vs Kasatkina :

Kasatkina vlogs have indicated she’s having a tough time on tour lately, and that’s tough to watch. Her life can’t possibly be simple right now, and I hope she finds some peace soon. In the meantime, Jacqueline Cristian actually has half a chance here. If it were clay, I’d like her. Hardcourt though is a place where she hasn’t shown great offense and consistency. A fresh event and slowish courts should help Darya get back on track. Kasatkina in 2.

Keys vs Siniakova :

It’s good to see Keys back from her injury, but we sort of have to side with Siniakova here. Keys just withdrew from her last match in Toronto, and honestly I almost expect her to withdraw from this event if she’s not 100% unless she’s considering retirement. Siniakova is still alive in Cleveland right now and just beat Stearns, so despite her serving woes and Keys obvious ability to beat her (if she’s healthy), I like Siniakova to advance here. It’s just too hard to come back sharp from injury and Siniakova will make her play a lot of balls.

Joint vs Siegemund :

Siegemund hasn’t played since the Olympics, and Maya Joint is constantly improving. She was excellent in qualifying, and has been showing promise on tour and just off tour for the last year or so. She’s a junior standout, and the best feature of her game is her solidity. She’s really comfortable in long rallies and doesn’t tend to rush things. There’s no big weakness in her game, so her and Siegemund should be pretty even. Every win on tour is new territory, but I think she’s capable here. Joint in 3.

Tomljanovic vs Li :

I like Ajla here, but there’s nothing really to back it up in terms of recent results. Tomljanovic has been losing constantly since she can back to the tour, and Li played well in qualifying. I think Ajla just hits the ball too hard for her over the course of a long match, and since Ajla doesn’t really go for anything crazy, Li’s dips in quality might cost her. The qualifying wins were impressive, but Boskovic Sharma and Tararudee are probably a bit easier than Tomljanovic even if she’s struggling with her confidence. Someone in 3.

Kudermetova vs Mertens :

Kudermetova can beat anyone, but she’s been beating herself this season. Mertens is solid generally and even if she’s past her prime this is still a spot she should win. Mertens in 2.

Alexandrova vs Tomova :

Alexandrova is playing well, and she’s honestly in a good spot in the draw here. You really only can snag Sabalenka in an early round, so Tomova/Linette/Sabalenka is not terrible. Alexandrova in 2 is what I expect, Tomova had played well to start the year but she’s faded a bit in terms of results.

Linette vs Jovic :

Honestly I don’t know Jovic, and Linette’s struggles seem entirely over. She should be too tough from the baseline here. Linette in 2.

Sun vs Bronzetti :

Tough draw for Bronzetti, as Sun is one of the newest offenses on tour and she hasn’t quite hit a slump yet. New players tend to struggle eventually after players learn their game, but Sun is still dominating behind her forehand and serve. I really like her game, and her backhand and defense are improving. Sun in 2-3. Bronzetti can compete here, but I think Sun will be able to hold serve much easier.

Hon vs Sabalenka :

Hon played great in qualifying, but I think her approach and proclivity for dropshots are tough to continue against Sabalenka’s power. Sabalenka in 2.