2024 US Open Women's Finals

Pegula vs Sabalenka :

These two players have dominated the North American hardcourt swing for the past month. Sabalenka and Pegula just met in the finals of Cincinnati, and now they’ve backed it up by making it through to the finals of the US Open. It’s hard to play well even for just multiple days in a row, and these two have kept it going for weeks on end. For Pegula, she’s achieved her best result ever, and eclipsed it a round later. For Sabalenka, this is unfinished business. Aryna was in last year’s final but her offense fell short against Coco Gauff’s impeccable defending. There’s something about making the second final that lets people play much freer, but also focuses them on the task at hand. Sabalenka is always pretty motivated, but having an entire year to think about the US Open loss will have her minimizing the same errors and playing her best.

So far this week, Sabalenka has been unplayable. Navarro made a late run after losing the first 6-3, but even when she won four games in a row to get to a tiebreaker, it still felt like she was going uphill. She went up a quick minibreak in that tiebreak, but Sabalenka just was too steady on the day. The slightly slower courts are giving Aryna a chance to get a full swing, and although she can get a bit overzealous she’s basically worn every player down. Zheng didn’t get anything going against her at all, Navarro had a late run, Mertens didn’t get far, and Alexandrova snagged a set but never really looked like she’d win. Sabalenka has had a slightly easier draw here, but she’s mad quick work of it. Since she skipped Wimbledon with a shoulder injury, it’s a key for her to be 100% here and well rested, which she is.

Pegula will be happy to get through here, and given the Cincinnati result (6-3, 7-5) she will know that she can be competitive here. The worry at times with Pegula is that her level will drop, but since she backed up her Swiatek result with a mammoth effort against Muchova, I think this will be a very high level final. Pegula’s defense and flat hitting can challenge Sabalenka’s footwork and expose the unforced errors and impatience that is sometimes there. At the same time though, I don’t know if Pegula can hold an early lead. Sabalenka hits too big and Pegula doesn’t really serve many unreturned serves. Against Muchova she basically got outplayed for a set and a half, and then Muchova started to just blink in key moments. I wouldn’t even say Muchova needed to be down a break in the third, but she had some unfortunate errors and tactical mistakes on big points and that can swing a match in a major way.

With the crowd support and nothing to lose, Pegula should play her best. It’s a difficult task to wear down Sabalenka into errors, but it’s possible. Pegula also has a very nice flat forehand that she can use to create short angles with time. This match is offense vs defense but whomever gets time and control of rallies should be able to score. The big difference is Sabalenka’s serve and her ability to finish with short balls. It’s the same thing Muchova succeeded with, and while she’s did a lot more work at net and is a little more consistent, Sabalenka’s ability to hit multiple winners makes her a decent favorite here to back up her Cincinnati title and win her first US Open, and Pegula is not quite as fast as Gauff so I think Aryna will be able to notch more winners than she did in last year’s final. Sabalenka in 2.