2024 US Open Men's & Women's Semifinals
Sinner vs Draper :
Sheesh. First let me apologize for not posting for a little. Life gets tricky, and sometimes I have to go battle swarms of hornets or break my toe or climb mountains or whatever (it was the first two mostly). If I’m not watching tennis, I don’t really value my opinion, because every event is wholly unique, every week on tour is a new landscape, and a single result or round can change the scenery of the entire tournament. I managed to catch up in the past few days, so here are some thoughts about the semifinals.
Jannik Sinner is one of the most professional players I have ever seen on tour. Everything he does is well thought out, his box is composed, and he takes their direction without outburst or significant necessity. His ability to choose a routine shot and land it in the court in between taking full rips is something that only the top tier of tennis have really mastered, and despite being known as a guy with a ton of power, he’s one of the most consistent baseliners on tour at this point.
Sinner vs Medvedev was absurdly high level. The baseline rallies were so solid that I spent half the match peering at them expecting one to fail physically. When Jannik was down two breaks in the second set and kept trying, I thought he was wasting energy. In the end, he had the deeper gas tank to play at that pace. Medvedev won the set, but towards the end he started to hit some forehands into the net. Flat hitters locating the net is always a bad sign, and from there it seemed inevitable that Sinner would pull away. The strangest thing about the 2nd set was that Jannik had a chance to win every one of the 4 games he lost in a row, but at that point it seemed like he was the one trying to find his way out of rallies. Medvedev established that he wouldn’t miss and it paid off. In the third and fourth, that flipped. Sinner in a rhythm is just exhausting, and despite both having more unforced errors than winners, this match was as high level as you’ll see this week.
Up next for Sinner is Draper, who has had a dream draw on the way to the semifinals. He had a close match with De Minaur, but always seemed like the better player. Alex is not himself yet, and he struggled mightily on serve. Draper had a letdown in the second and had to have his leg taped, but he was able to close that set out and from there it was too far uphill for De Minaur. Draper making the semis is huge. He’s always had trouble with injuries so it’s a good sign for him to be able to play two weeks of tennis. With his leg issue and the volume of tennis he’ll have to play against Jannik, it’s probably over, but this is who you want in this spot. He has the power to hit through almost anyone, and can serve very well. Jack did actually win their one meeting in 2021, but that was on grass and Sinner was a much different player. Sinner’s returning has gotten too good for him to get blitzed, and Draper has a leg issue. De Minaur was almost able to drag Draper into unforced error territory, and Sinner will. Sinner in 3-4.
Fritz vs Tiafoe :
Earlier I apologized for missing the last few rounds. I said that it’s because I had real life issues to deal with, but is that really it? Or is it that I just couldn’t mentally process Taylor Fritz having a chance at winning a major. Not only has Fritz played excellent this week, he’s also notched some of the best wins of his career. Rolling Berrettini was a great hint that he was ready to go deep in this event, and beating Zverev in a pretty good quality serving duel is something that I wouldn’t generally expect from him.
The Zverev Fritz matchup is one that seems pretty even on serve. Alex has the stronger delivery but his service motion has more possible glitches in it than Taylor’s, which is simple and repeatable. Fritz feels way more comfortable on the forehand wing which was a big key, but it’s huge progress for Fritz’s backhand to hold up against Zverev’s. I’ve spent a bunch of years hating on Fritz’s game. It always felt like he’d fold up when things got tough, he’d lament poor luck and inability to execute, and it seemed like his early success and some ego had become an obstacle to putting in the serious work in those difficult situations.
By no means am I a tennis coach, but pushing hard and competing in the matches where you’re really up against it is where you level up. Our habits become reflexive over time, and while focus and attention can overcome this on the court, it’s fatiguing and everyone has a bandwidth of how long they can play their peak tennis. If you take the Nadal/RBA approach and play every point and every event seriously, over time it becomes much easier. Your base level becomes too much for others, and you don’t lose the ability to peak, you’re more emotionally and physically able to elevate a bit when you finally need to. Fritz is tremendous, don’t get me wrong, I just think he took a while to lock in and find his best composure out there.
Not only has Fritz wound up in the semifinals of the US Open for the first time, but he faces an opponent that he is very comfortable with. Fritz has won the last 6 meetings against Tiafoe, and he has honestly never played better tennis than he has this week. Tiafoe is capable of beating anyone, and his reputation as a big match player is very deserved, but the h2h is important. Tiafoe throws in some bad matches on tour where he just isn’t together and makes too many unforced errors, so we can discount a few of the losses. By the same logic though, you’d expect him to grab one when he peaks. Part of the issue in the matchup is that Taylor absorbs pace well on his forehand. He’s able to trade cross-court well without losing too much depth, and that’s a place where Dimitrov struggled. Grigor played well in the quarterfinal, but he wasn’t really dangerous. He kept his slice low, he defended well, but when he took his forehand cross-court it was just a rally ball. He got a little predictable in the cross-court patterns and Tiafoe basically got played into a great rhythm.
Frances hit his forehand as well as he can in the quarterfinal, and he served fairly well. They had a bout of double-faults in the tiebreaker that Grigor won, but overall Tiafoe was the player taking more chances. Another unfortunate injury for Dimitrov ended the match, but not before he played 5-6 extra games he didn’t really need to. As a competitor, you never want to bow out, but it’s a little uncomfortable to see someone who’s in real pain and can’t move out there still. Yeah, we paid for our tickets, but if you’re hurt, it’s okay man go get some treatment. Continuing on when you’re really injured can often compound the situation, so while I appreciate him always trying to play out the match for the fans, sometimes the tennis isn’t really worth watching anymore and it’s time to call it a day.
Since this is literally the biggest moment of both of their careers (Fritz winning Indian Wells is up there but not in terms of pressure), you can’t count Tiafoe out. He’s faster than Taylor, he’s very strong, and he has a lot of ability. I still don’t think we’ve seen him hit his serves as hard as he can, and his forehand can take the racquet out of anyone’s hands. Where I think he loses this matchup generally is on the backhand side. Fritz is the player who hits a bit harder and has a more stable technique, so he doesn’t need to force the issue or create as often. He’s serving really well this week also, and Dimitrov couldn’t land first serves at all. This is a great spot for both and they’re both playing great, but Fritz’s resume this week is just at a much higher level than Tiafoe’s (through no fault of his own). This would be a big step up for Tiafoe, and against an opponent who has been a game or two better than him for the last few years and has now found a new peak. Fritz in 4.
Pegula vs Muchova :
It’s weird to watch someone beat the #1 seed and then wonder if they’re a favorite in the next match against a player they just beat two weeks ago, but I’m weird. Jessica Pegula was stifling against Shnaider in the 4th round, and turned back one of the hottest offenses on tour. In the next round, she straight setted Iga Swiatek. Pegula has been one of the most consistent baseliners on tour for a few seasons now, but the major titles have eluded her. This is probably her best chance ever. She’s playing well, she has a familiar opponent (just defeated Muchova in 3 in Cincinnati), and the likely finalist on the other side is someone she just played moderately close in the Cincinnati final (3-6, 5-7 against Sabalenka). All that makes her at least a small favorite against Muchova, but I wonder if Karolina hasn’t hit an entirely new level this week.
Muchova had her hands full with Haddad Maia early in the match, as Bella came out hitting her forehand extremely hard. It looked like things would take a while, but Muchova basically ran away with the match from 1-1. She kept points extremely short, her forehand was a constant problem, and she got to net behind cannonesque first serves (is cannonesque a word? who’s to say … not me, and not you, unless you google it, in which case it’s probably not). Her power and defensive ability are her best attributes, but the last few seasons have seen her mostly struggle with injury and play inconsistent tennis. This past week she’s been in good form, in good health, and she’s a player who can basically beat anyone on tour if they play well. She has experience going deep in majors, and she’s up against an opponent who has had a few tough losses at this stage.
Pegula is a good shout to outlast anyone, but I think her and Muchova will be very close. Karolina serving so well this week is a big shift. She was around 50% in their previous match, and hit 76% against Haddad Maia. Muchova has improved in every match and has enough power and a good enough commitment to closing to net to give Pegula problems. Jessica also has an interesting thing working against her at times. She’s really consistent, but she hits the ball at the same pace almost constantly. At times she plays her opponents into a rhythm, and Muchova has more variety in her game. This should be extremely close between two players who are quite often in that semifinal/runner up role and have a real chance here to win a major. For me, Muchova’s serving gives her a bit of an edge, and the semifinal atmosphere tends to create very fragmented tennis and a lot of time between points which makes free points a huge boost. Muchova in 3.
Sabalenka vs Navarro :
Aryna Sabalenka has to be pleased to see all the top seeds crashing out, but this is a tricky matchup. Emma Navarro isn’t necessarily the biggest name in tennis yet, but her ceiling is very much unknown. She’s having her best year ever, and she just beat Gauff and Badosa. Add in that she beat Sabalenka in 3 in Indian Wells, and alarm bells should be ringing for Sabalenka’s team. The thing that’s most noticeable about Navarro’s game is her heavy forehand, but her defense and athletic ability are the type that can frustrate Sabalenka. If you’re able to keep the ball coming back with depth, Sabalenka will spray unforced errors. If she has time or gets inside the baseline, you are toast. The dismissal she gave Zheng was scary, as Zheng had shown a level in previous matches (most notably against Anisimova) that made me think she could challenge for the title.
Sabalenka’s game is ideal for majors because if she’s on, she’s unplayable. If she’s a bit off, it becomes close and often goes three. If she has a bad game, she’s very likely to lose the next, or the entire match. Since that’s the case, it’s tough to really call for her losses. At a minor event, they’re more likely, but here she should be fairly focused and the level she brought against Zheng was much better than what was present in Indian Wells. Navarro’s defending gets a slight boost at IW also because it’s the slowest hardcourt on the tour, so here Aryna’s groundstrokes will be more effective. If we just look at assets, Sabalenka should win. She has a much bigger serve, the slightly slower courts give her an extra second on her groundstrokes, and her backhand hits much bigger than Navarro. Their forehands are fairly even. I don’t think Navarro can generate the same pace, but Sabalenka’s errors make it an interesting battle since Emma tends to go with more height and shape over the net. The amount of Americans left at this event is pretty incredible, and Navarro’s rise to the top has been as well. I don’t think she can beat Sabalenka unless Aryna has a letdown, but there’s no real reason to count her out. Sabalenka in 2.