2024 US Open Men's & Women's Round Three Day 2 Thoughts
Hola. I skipped the last round’s writeup for the simplest reason that I just didn’t feel like I caught enough tennis. I’ve had a few things drag me away, and I value giving quality info over just making up a story. I did catch a bit of the matches, so rather than skip the next round entirely, I’m just going to quickly recap some stuff here. I should be back to normal by next week, and one of the other writers on Degensclub might pop in to post some content also. Anyway, here’s what I’ve seen in the past few days, very free form just quick thoughts.
ATP Singles :
O’Connell is resurrecting his career in one tournament. It seems really difficult to gauge when he’s going to wake up but his smooth style from the baseline is pretty entertaining. It’s over for him against Sinner but this was a good run.
Diallo is just going to keep getting better. He went from losing in Challengers to winning them to beating solid tour level competition in a short amount of time and his swings are so natural and fluid. As he gets older and more reliable from the baseline he could have similar results to a Popyrin or FAA. Tommy Paul is probably too defensively stable for him and he is fine trading pace in long rallies, but Diallo’s future is bright.
Borges went from not being able to win a match to being one of the more solid players on tour. He had excellent composure against Kokkinakis when he had balls to work with. No snatching at the shots, just full execution to solid but safe targets. Him and Mensik is one I like Mensik in in a best of 3 but in this long format Borges might be able to sneak by.
Cobolli is beatable for one set, but you lose the match because of the work you put in in that one set. He’s another player like Arnaldi who really doesn’t have holes in their game, and his serving seems to be improving. Medvedev might be a bad matchup for him but I think I’d buy tickets.
Botic knows what he’s doing. Danielle Collins talks about retirement, has her best year (outside majors). Botic talks about retirement, beats Alcaraz in straights. It overshadows the wild upset he pulled in the first round; beating Shapovalov (who has been playing well) in straights is just super surprising. Draper probably beats Botic but the best Botic is a difficult matchup for anyone because he has such unique shots and clean hitting. His commitment to good contact lets him play at the highest level; it reminds me of Kohlschreiber a little.
Machac is a problem, and his thighs are the side of my head. He should beat Goffin just based off being a little bit more able to create on his forehand. Goffin can win the backhand exchanges but I think he’ll run out of gas.
De Minaur is not at his best but it’s still really difficult for people to hit through him. He needs to serve better to beat Evans, who seems to have found his best tennis at an event where his whole draw is a little suspect. I do not think De Minaur should lose but I watched him struggle with his serve against Giron and Virtanen was up 5-2 in the first. De Minaur doesn’t look 100% back, but I guess he has the edge here on discipline and he’s spent much less time on the court.
Thompson is having the best two years of his career here, but I think it might be over. Arnaldi continues to beat his opponents with volume. He makes people play a metric ton of tennis to beat him, and he plays every point the same. It would seem a no brainer that tennis pros would be able to do this, but it takes years of focus on training to really iron out errors on both wings. Arnaldi’s serve isn’t terribly dominant, but if he keeps playing at this level and winning the matches he’s supposed to (a la De Minaur), the fact that he hits bigger than a lot of the grinders makes his ceiling really high.
WTA Singles :
Swiatek and Pavlyuchenkova might be closer than the odds suggest. Pavs is crushing the ball and got to play a lot of tennis against Cocciaretto. She’s a good big match player and Swiatek should always win on endurance and speed but her hardcourt level can fluctuate if her opponent is hitting big which Pavs does.
Krueger played the best match of her career against Andreeva. If she backs that up she can beat Samsonova because she was a little more consistent and served better, but there is an odd trend on tour for players to pull a big upset and then be a little flat in the next round.
Errani just finds ways to win. Dolehide seemed so impatient but I guess her lack of speed means she has to go big. Errani stuck around until the scoreline got close and Dolehide was toast. Shnaider won’t have that issue, but it’s still amazing to see Errani winning multiple matches at the majors.
Bouzas Maneiro is cementing her place on tour. I thought Bassols’ game translated better to the tour level but Bouzas just competes and doesn’t miss and is willing to play offense when she has a chance. Pegula is the end of the road most likely but again, a great run.
Ponchet got a huge gift with the Rybakina retirement. I think she’s solid enough in return games to break Wozniacki but she’s been broken a bunch recently so I think Woz has the edge.
Haddad is on fire and Kalinskaya is one of the best baseliners outside the top 10, I lean towards BHM but this should be a great match to have tickets to. Haddad has been really good at moving forward when she has the chance.
Muchova scored a huge win but Potapova might be a tougher out since she’s so good in long rallies. Muchova will need a good first serve percentage or there could be a lot of momentum changes.
Putintseva is on a mission but Paolini has a bigger forehand. Much of Putintseva’s win against Wang was her driving the ball low and flat and getting Wang to struggle with her length. It’s going to be a long day against Paolini and I don’t really see how either can score in bunches. Paolini won their last meeting in three and I half expect the same.