2024 US Open Men's Round Two

Sinner vs Michelsen :

Sinner dropped the first against McDonald but he looked fine after that. It’s just a reminder that anyone in the top 200 can beat anyone else in a single set of tennis. The reason the majors see so few standalone champions is because of the long format though, and Mackie was unable to maintain the high level it takes to hit through Sinner. Up next for Sinner is a match that his camp is probably not happy about. Alex Michelsen seems to have found his best tennis at the exact right time. He won a title last week in Winston-Salem, and he arrived at the US Open in the same form. After winning the first 6-1, he went down 5-1 to Spizzirri in the second and it looked like he was hitting the wall physically. Apparently, the boy is rubber because he bounced off the wall and reeled off 6 games in a row to win the set. His forehand looked unreal during this stretch and he closed out the 3rd easily.

The good news for Michelsen is he got through quickly. The bad news is his best attributes are things Sinner tends to deal with well. Michelsen is a strong server but Jannik is an excellent returner. Michelsen hits the ball a ton but Sinner is adept at trading power without giving up ground on the baseline. This is a very early look at Sinner’s physical ability, because if he plays his best he can wrap this up in 3-4. There is a risk for Michelsen to fatigue at some point in this event, and the adrenaline dump of early success against Sinner might compound that. Either way, this is a match I think Sinner wins on stamina and because he’s just a lot quicker laterally than Michelsen. Sinner in 3-4.

Bellucci vs O’Connell :

O’Connell got the benefit of a slight less than 100% Jarry in round one. It was still a competitive match, but Jarry on hardcourt and not feeling his best just left him too beatable to advance. Chris now faces Bellucci, who was projected to beat Wawrinka and did exactly that. When he first got on tour Bellucci was really making his money defending, but his forehand and serve have improved as his confidence has. He was able to keep Wawrinka parked in the backhand corner and his long takeback let him constantly force Stan to open his racquet and slice the return when he went behind him. It was a dominant performance and he gets another one-hander to work against in this round.

O’Connell in form is a tremendous baseliner and can extend rallies, but physically he’s not as durable as Bellucci. He has suffered frequent injuries on tour, and a long match against Jarry is a bit of wear and tear. While I do think experience matters, the Italian players seem to arrive on tour ready to win. Bellucci’s job is simple because O’Connell has a one-handed backhand; he just needs to keep him buried in that corner. I think O’Connell has more variety in his game, but he also makes slightly less reliable contact. Should be a close one, but I think Bellucci is primed for another solid win. Bellucci in 4.

Fils vs Diallo :

This second round is full of absurdly good matches and this fits that bill nicely. Arthur Fils has had trouble on slow courts (mostly clay) this season. He’s been a bit impatient, and unforced errors have appeared for a guy who is somewhat expected to become a big time factor on tour. The good news is, that early season struggle has given way to some excellent play. He was tasked with beating Learner Tien, a lefty who’d been thriving and grinding out wins on the Challenger tour (28 in a row). This is not easy at all, but Fils showed a level of focus that was very refreshing. They split the early sets, but Fils kept rallies alive until the younger player eventually got worn down. The end result was Fils pulling away to win the final sets 6-1, 6-2. It was a performance that I think makes him a healthy favorite against Diallo, despite the Canadian’s potential. Diallo and Munar was a very close match, but Diallo’s serve and forehand are world class. He makes unforced errors, but in this match he hit the ball harder on every shot and that pays off. Munar just couldn’t get enough returns in play to really apply pressure, and his own first serve failed him and let Diallo tee off on seconds. The plan for Fils is the same as Munar, but Arthur has a good serve and offense of his own. He hits as hard as Diallo off both wings, he’s a bit more stable defensively, and I think he’ll win in 4-5 due to unforced erros from Diallo. Diallo (in time) could be a title winner on tour. He really has fluid groundstrokes, great athletic ability, and a mind for the game. It’ll just take a bit of time and experience for him to cut down the errors. Fils in 4-5.

Purcell vs Paul :

This will be similar to Sonego Paul. Paul is too good defensively and has a similarly effective offense as his opponent. Paul in 3-4.

Kokkinakis vs Borges :

A very fine win for Kokkinakis in round one, as Tsitsipas’ woes continued. It just seems like he’s lost his mojo and losing confidence in his backhand has left him constantly out of position on court. Tsitsipas has the ability to leave his forehand wing open and respond, but you can’t do that all the time. Years of playing in that style mean that there will be lapses, and playing a guy with huge power and an unpredictable forehand like Kokkinakis makes it even tough to be reliable on the run. Thanasi will face Borges next, a guy who possesses less offense than Tsitsipas but a more durable defense. Borges was able to ease past Coria in straight sets, and he has gone from a perennial struggler to one of the tour’s most consistent winners in under a year. I’ve said it before, but he reminds me of a tiny Sampras with the way he walks around the court and the way he wears a hat, and I think given his college experience he will continue to improve as he gets more comfortable on tour. This is a match where Borges has to outlast Kokkinakis. He won’t win a serving battle, and Thanasi is likely to start off well. Borges won in straights against Coria, but he gave up a few breaks and honestly his level would not have beaten Tsitsipas. I’m hesitant to give it to Kokkinakis outright, because players of course play to the level they need to in a given match. Kokkinakis in 4 or Borges in 5.

Mensik vs Schoolkate :

Mensik pulled off a great upset in round one against FAA. Coming in there were injury questions so I didn’t think he’d be himself, but it was the Jakub Mensik of old on display. His forehand is a laser, he serves well, and he doesn’t miss or get frustrated. He’s already a consummate professional, and he’s only 18 years old. Now he gets a round to rest as well, as Schoolkate isn’t really a huge threat here. Schoolkate was down and out against Taro Daniel (2 sets and a break) and somehow won in 5. It honestly doesn’t make sense, but from what I saw he doesn’t have the rally tolerance to hang with Mensik. Mensik in 3.

Cobolli vs Bergs :

Heroic stuff for Bergs in the first round, beating Kotov in 5. Kotov’s ballstriking and offense are so fun to watch, it’s kinda surprising that he lost. Cobolli is just too good for Bergs, and has way more methods of scoring. Cobolli in 3.

Maroszan vs Medvedev :

Maroszan was pretty lucky that Medjedovic injured his leg, because it looked like the challenger was the stronger and more consistent offense. Up next is a guy he really can’t beat. Medvedev dropped a set to Lajovic, but he seemed fine. Daniil can have trouble with guys who hit big and clean like Maroszan, but Maro doesn’t play consistent enough offense to hit through him for a whole match. Medvedev in 3-4.

Alcaraz vs Van De Zandschulp :

Alcaraz did drop a set to Li Tu, but it doesn’t really shift the expected outcome much when he does that. Alcaraz seems very willing to swing for the fences when he wants, and this looks exhausting to play but it also results in some unforced errors and dropped sets every hardcourt season. Now he’ll play a guy with a much bigger offense than Tu, but whose court coverage might not be as quick. Botic was mulling retirement, but somehow Shapovalov cared enough to hold that off. Shapovalov seemed fine, but just got outdueled in a manner that he didn’t need to. It just feels like Denis is looking to play peak tennis all the time and doesn’t fall back often enough on his speed and agility.

For this next round, I expect Botic could win the same set as Li Tu but in a different way. If Alcaraz gives up a careless break, Botic can probably hold onto his serve as he has a strong delivery and a great forehand. In the past he’s played his best tennis against top 10 opponents, so I’m optimistic as a fan. As an analyst, I think his lateral movement has always been his issue, and having to go bigger and craft shots to avoid sprinting makes you tense over time. Alcaraz’s defense should get him this one in 3-4.

Diaz Acosta vs Draper :

Diaz Acosta ran through Gaston fairly easily, and a second round at a major on hardcourt is a huge boost for a clay-court specialist. Up next is the end of the road, but it’s not totally hopeless. Draper rolled Zhang, and he has one of the best offenses in the tournament. He’s a lefty, he has huge power, and his backhand looks simple but he creates good angles and dropshots with it. If he’s tired, he can fold which is why Diaz Acosta has a chance. Diaz has great speed and is lefty also so the patterns won’t be as automatic for Draper, but I don’t see why he won’t be fresh for this one and I like him over most of the draw if he’s fresh. Draper in 3.

Goffin vs Mannarino :

Mannarino wins a match! It seemed like he might not do that again, and despite the 4-0 h2h it seemed like Coric would best him. Mannarino vs Goffin in the second round of a major seems like a big throwback, so I’m going to enjoy this. Both have exceptional rally tolerance, both move the ball effortlessly well without error, and both I suspect are secretly elfs. Goffin was tremendous against Tabilo. He had some moments where the match could swing, but he was able to swing his high backhand down the line to great effect in this one time and time again. It’s not necessarily the power, but the depth that seems to make him so effective on this shot. This is probably a very close matchup, and Mannarino won their last two meetings. This can be slightly discounted because Goffin has been in a pretty pronounced slump for a few years following his eye injury, but I’m not going to blatantly ignore a h2h two rounds in a row. Or am I? For me, Goffin is really playing well and Mannarino defeated an opponent who has been stuck at the bottom of the tour for over a year now. Tennis-wise, I don’t see a way for either of them to really hit through the other, but I think Goffin’s backhand is the biggest shot on the court and it’s been a while since Mannarino played two long matches in a row. Goffin in 4-5.

Machac vs Korda :

Machac Korda is another incredible match. Both hit extremely clean, both have clean but slightly suspect backhands, and both wear cool backwards hats. Actually, Korda doesn’t, but he does wear a cool rubber band string thing in his hair, and when you’re that cool, my brain just automatically photoshops a backwards hat onto your head. Machac in good form can beat the bad Korda, but Korda just stayed pretty solid while beating Moutet. A sign that you’ve played well is if Moutet throws a tantrum, and he did. Moutet and Nishioka seem to really unravel when they’re losing, and I’m not saying they’re both McEnroe wearing disguises for an Uncle Drew style movie, but I’m also not not saying. Anyway, the point is, the US Open is on Eastern Standard time. This is great for me, but it also means I’m writing these things at 1am, so things will get a bit squirrely. Korda probably can’t beat Machac anywhere near as easily as Moutet because Machac’s offense will keep him moving, but he should be the slightly better server over a long match. Two excellent offenses here, and honestly I like Machac’s effort and fitness level better but dragging Korda into deep water is something I mostly only see the top players do. Korda in 4.

De Minaur vs Virtanen :

I see De Minaur listed as a pretty healthy favorite for this, and I wonder if they perhaps watched a different match than me. De Minaur was dominant against Giron, but in a less than dominant way. He was broken a ton, he racked up 10+ double faults, and late in the match his legs didn’t seem under him. He shanked some balls, he looked hesitant on his backhand, and his serve wasn’t there. Giron having a somewhat generic backhand made it so that he couldn’t really capitalize, but it felt at times like he should be winning the match. Maybe De Minaur gets better round by round, but this next one is tough. Otto Virtanen has a huge serve, and the type of power that negates someone elses defense. He sprinted past Halys, and he has basically been unplayable on serve for the past week. The good De Minaur can beat him, but it doesn’t look like Alex is 100% physically and so this will be close. Virtanen can win a set in 20 minutes, but he can also lose one in the same duration. ADM has traditionally struggled against players with great power, so this will really come down to his returning. If De Minaur is returning well, then he wins in 4. It can be really tough to deal with a player like De Minaur who doesn’t take big risks from the baseline and makes it clear that you have to create. Virtanen is also on his 5th match here, so he might not be able to go the distance. Now that I’ve properly hedged all the outcomes, I can tell you my real hunch. I think Virtanen can win this. Giron couldn’t hold serve at all, and De Minaur still gave him a number of breaks. Virtanen won’t be playing any long rallies, but he can hang onto his serve if he gets a lead. De Minaur looks like he’s not fully recovered and I don’t think he’ll be in the draw much longer. Virtanen in 4-5.

Navone vs Evans :

Navone! Consider that this guy was grinding away in Challengers just a year ago, and it is really incredible what he’s done this season. Am I saying this because he’s on my fantasy team? Yes. Shoutout reddit user buttcrispy for allowing me in their league, and for letting me type buttcrispy in an article. Navone Evans is a great chance for one of these two to get through, and I am a little unsure what to expect. Evans is better by far on hardcourt when he’s playing well, but the manner in which he got through makes me worried. Dan is here after a 5 hour and 33 minute battle against Karen Khachanov that saw him come back from 4-0 down in the fifth. It is hard to imagine he’s feeling 100% after that, it’s one of his first wins on tour in a while, and Navone is going to make him play a metric ton of backhand to backhand rallies. It makes it closer than I think most would think. I don’t have the answer to Evans’ physical state right now. If he’s a bit flat, I like Navone, but Evans will enter as the favorite and he is better on serve than his opponent. Evans in 4.

Safiullin vs Arnaldi :

The depth of the ATP is great for fans and bad for turtles. Safiullin and Arnaldi played early this year and Safiullin won 7-6, 6-2 in Brisbane. Since then Roman has been slumping a bit and only just woke up in the past few weeks. Arnaldi has been a consistent performer the entire season, but he’s been less than automatic this month. It makes for a very close proposition. Safiullin is a lot like Karatsev; his power is so rare but so overwhelming that he can beat anyone when he’s on. He seems solid this week, and he’ll be fresh after a warmup match vs Forbes that went his way fairly easily. Arnaldi also got through quickly, but faced a much tougher test in Zachary Zvajda. The difference for me here is that Arnaldi’s defense is given a tiny boost from these courts. I like Safiullin in a 2/3 structure, but I think Arnaldi is likely to maintain the more stable level over a long match. Arnaldi in 5.

Thompson vs Hurkacz :

I really liked the level that Skatov brought against Hurkacz, but Hubert was very clutch. He went down a break, but worked hard to break back. He faced break points late, but he found first serves when he needed them. A lot of players entered this even with injury concerns, and a lot of them eclipsed those fears. Hurkacz doesn’t play the most labor intensive style, but he seems okay. Him against Thompson is a tricky matchup. They’ve somehow never met, but I imagine that it will be a difficult matchup to win quickly for Hurkacz. Thompson isn’t really an offensive threat, he doesn’t return incredibly well, but he is very efficient about his chances. He knows when to keep the ball in the court, he makes it clear he’s not going to give cheap points away, and he’ll probably nab a few breaks that Skatov couldn’t. The flip side is that Skatov was incredibly clutch on serve when he needed to be, and he has a slightly trickier delivery than Thompson. Expecting a few traded sets here, and Hurkacz’s serve to be a huge factor as this drags on. Hurkacz in 4-5.

Ruud vs Monfils :

Diego Schwartzman’s style is still one of the most fun to watch on tour. He ended up gassing out after winning the first set in a tiebreaker against Monfils, but it was the best tennis he’s played in a while. Monfils was drenched in sweat in set 1, and I thought he’d tire out. It reminded me of his ankle-grabbing, because I got fooled into thinking he was in trouble. Monfils against Ruud is probably an even matchup, but only after Ruud finally found some good tennis. Casper had been struggling for a while, but late in the first against Bu he found the length on his forehand again. From there it was all Ruud, and I think he’s just playing well enough to squeak past Monfils. In a match that should feature long rallies, I think both will mostly only score with their forehands, and Ruud’s is bigger. Monfils’ serves better, but I think he was in trouble against Diego if his opponent hadn’t hit a wall physically. Ruud in 5.

Carballes Baena vs Shang :

Both players won in five sets here, and both are absolute terrors from the baseline. Carballes Baena’s forehand looked solid, and he served decent. A lot of buzz is indicating he can pull the upset here, and while I think it’s possible I think they’re underestimating Shang’s resilience. Shang is very quick around the court, and very solid. Maybe RCB can wear him down or test his mental fortitude, but I think Shang serves better and is able to hit shots more often that will earn points. RCB can keep the rally alive but he needs to get inside the baseline to score. Shang is creating angles frequently, and can change directions on the run well with his forehand. Should be a fun one and it will take 3+ hours, but Shang in 4.

Humbert vs Comesana :

I like Humbert here. He was slated to beat Monteiro, and he did it. He was really sharp, and Comesana mostly beat Stricker by outlasting him. Comesana is an exciting player, but his hardcourt prowess is lagging behind. Humbert in 3.

Berrettini vs Fritz :

I might feel foolish but I am becoming a Fritz believer. He just seems to win the matches he’s supposed to in comfortable fashion now, and him having a solid backhand and a similar serve/forehand combo makes me think he can snag Berrettini. Matteo won in straights, but he looked somewhat cooked at the end against ARV and after his big letdown vs Rune a month ago (won the first easily then got rolled in 3), I think Fritz will win on stamina. Fritz in 4-5.

Nakashima vs Cazaux :

Tricky spot here. Cazaux crushed PCB but Pablo may have not been 100% physically. You can say he would have withdrawn, but do inactive players returning to tour usually skip a free 100k? Cazaux isn’t considered as good as Rune, but this match feels closer to me because Rune has become such a pusher. He played Nakashima from outside the stadium, and despite winning some long rallies and making some incredible gets, he never gave Nakashima any reason to miss. Nakashima just hit shot after shot with safe margin, and in between Rune struggled to land first serves. I think Nakashima can keep it going, but I expect this to be much closer than the previous round. Cazaux returns from much closer, his offense is more varied and insisted upon than Rune’s, and he has cool hair right now. Nakashima in 4.

Kecmanovic vs Musetti :

Nishioka unfortunately injured himself in round one, and Kecmanovic got a lucky advancement. He’ll have a tough test against Musetti, and the manner in which he was struggling with Nishi’s defense makes me think he’ll have a tough time. Musetti was able to break Opelka numerous times in their match, and this is probably the best year for him on fast surfaces. I like it, because the only real problem with his hardcourt game was his passive court position. If that changes, skies the limit. We always see these next gen guys as peaking and then remaining there after their initial surge, but it’s the mid to late 20s when we’ll really see them start to get sharper about their shot selection. Kecmanovic hit a good level late against Nishioka, but I think he’ll lose to his unforced errors here and he still does give up a bunch of those (58 in the last round and the match didn’t end). Musetti in 3-4.

Cerundolo vs Etcheverry :

The umpire for this is gonna need a bathroom break. Etcheverry is starting to play very well, and the slightly slower courts let him really frustrate Perricard. At the same time, Cerundolo has found a good patch of tennis. Ofner had him in trouble, and early in the year Cerundolo had folded in these spots. Him waking up and winning in 4 is a great sign. In this match, I feel like Cerundolo is the weaker player, but when he has control of rallies I think he’ll score quicker. Etcheverry needs to wear him down, and isolate his backhand. I think he will. Etcheverry in 5.

Muller vs Zverev :

Muller made a nice comeback against Walton, but it’s over here. He doesn’t have ways to hurt Zverbb. Zverev in 3.

Rublev vs Rinderknech :

Great clutch 5th set tiebreak win for Rinderknech. His offense can really give Rublev trouble, but I think Rublev’s random crashouts are done for the month. He’s hitting the ball hard and was very focused against Wild. Rublev in 4.

Krueger vs Lehecka :

Mitchell Krueger looks like a different person. He’s hitting the ball so hard and he’s able to find offense. He was always pretty ordinary so it’s impressive. Since Lehecka has had some injury issues, Krueger’s endurance and hitting could be a factor, but that’s a big if. Lehecka should be comfortable with the rallies in a way that Grenier wasn’t, and he serves just as well. Lehecka in 4.

Baez vs Griekspoor :

It is now 1am so if it feels like the predictions are getting shorter. Yes. Griekspoor and Baez should be really good. Griekspoor looked like he was enjoying his tennis in the first round against Nagal, and Baez is back to wall form. The recent matches make this tricky. Griekspoor lost to Michelsen and Sonego, but we now know those matches weren’t bad losses. Griekspoor does seem to be in half a slump, but it’s hard to gauge what sort of problems he’ll have against Baez since he hit so well against Nagal. If Griekspoor serves well, he probably wins in 4. If not, I could see this going 5 sets. Baez is just really hard to hit through. I sort of expect the upset here. Baez in 5.

Hijikata vs Dimitrov :

ADF seems to know he should be winning, but he won’t adjust his offense to make that happen. Hijikata just kept rallying with him, and Alejandro hit the ball out, or into the net, or long. It’s a great win for Rinky, but Dimitrov won’t afford him the same bonus. Dimitrov still looks a little hesitant on serve, but he was comfortable against Jacquet and I think it’ll be hard for Hijikata to hurt him. Rinky is solid, but he doesn’t hit big enough to really break down Dimitrov’s backhand and that’s always the formula. Dimitrov in 4.

Shelton vs Bautista-Agut :

Great wins for both in round one. RBA will be a tough out for Shelton if he’s making errors, but if he’s landing first serves then he should win comfortably. Their AO meeting was a straight set win, but this is a very different Bautista-Agut. Roberto is hitting well, and winning on tour again. This court is perfect for him, so I think he’ll be close in a few sets. Since Shelton can sometimes throw in a Raonic-esque service game donation, I like him in 4. He’ll always have a chance to break back, but he wasn’t exactly dominant against Thiem at times.

Shechenko vs Tiafoe :

Shevchenko was limping during the match against Koepfer. He was serving for the match in the third, and lost 4 games in a row. Somehow, then he won the 4th in a lopsided affair. I don’t get it, but I don’t think he’ll be healthy for the Tiafoe matchup. Even if he were, I think Tiafoe is playing a little too well and he holds serve way easier than Koepfer. Tiafoe in 3.

Popyrin vs Martinez :

I’m not sure how Martinez had so much energy in the 5th set, but Kasnikowski was on his last legs and pushing the ball in play and Martinez was everywhere smashing forehands. He only wound up in a tiebreaker due to forehand errors, and I think he’ll be a little more competitive with Popyrin than his recent results would suggest. Popyrin just won Montreal and is playing well, but Martinez won their two hardcourt meetings in 2022. Popyrin’s ability to serve big and end rallies quickly will give him something that Kasnikowski lacked in the late stages of the match, but this could be competitive early. Popyrin in 4-5.

Djere vs Djokovic :

We all remember the close match Djere gave Djokovic last time, but I think this one will be different. Djokovic has a larger knee brace, but he’s playing good tennis again. Albot was a great warmup for him and they had some amazing rallies, and Djere will be a time intensive matchup but one that Djokovic should win a bit quicker this time. Djere’s forehand is heavy but he’s really struggling on second serves (him and Struff basically doubled all their breaks away) and that will be multiplied against Novak. Djokovic in 3.