2024 US Open Men's Round One

ATP Singles :

Sinner vs McDonald :

The more bored parts of the internet are abuzz right now with Sinner’s recent doping allegations. While doping is pretty rampant in professional sports, I find that my own opinions about this stuff are easily picked apart. I think that the use of supplements in professional sports is almost baked in, because in terms of physical output you will always have a hard time competing evenly with someone who’s taking better stuff or taking stuff when you’re not. You can train all day, but if your opponent is taking extra testosterone (as an example) he’s going to be larger/stronger/faster than you if he puts in equal work. The chemists are always coming up with new ways to package things to avoid the current type of tests, and as new testing protocols get introduced, occasionally someone gets caught and the next new line of supplements needs to be manufactured. It’s a constant dance. Given the somewhat random nature of testing on tour and the structure of the tour, players can take risks and try to peak for a certain event or week. This choice can depend on the draw they receive, or the conditions they like, or it can just be out of desperation. They don’t need to pass every test, they just need to not get tested the week they’re dominating, and they occasionally miss these test anyway. A good week keeps you on tour for another year, and with the improvement in the quality and relative safety of these banned substances, they’re not even incurring a significant risk with infrequent use.

Makes half sense right? Sure, but I am not qualified to talk about any of this. I’m not a chemist, I don’t know the exact testing protocol or scheduling, I don’t play professional tennis, and I’m not in the camps of these players, so all of my information is second-hand info. Ex pros can tell me that everyone is doing it, analysts can point out who is suspicious in a particular week, but all the hunches and coincidences in the world don’t have any value. Sure, I’ve seen Icarus, and read some articles, but that doesn’t make me an expert, it just makes me a parrot. The punishments and treatment of these athletes in tennis may seem biased at times and not to really follow any particular protocol, but most of us have never read the rules and regulations of the agencies in charge of meting out these punishments. I guess my point is, while it’s easy to craft a story and a narrative, I’m the one who knows I’m not really qualified to have one. Running against that are the somewhat ridiculous sounding stories that players march out. Most deny the allegations, and over time the consistent defenses make probably even the real stories seem like they’re fables. It’s just a little messy, and I’m an idiot, so for now, I’ll just focus on the tennis.

Jannik Sinner is the one guy on tour who can beat anyone and you won’t consider it a major upset. He trades power as well as anyone, he’s the best returner on tour, and despite the noise surrounding his allegations, his only major problem here is that he’s returning from a bit of an illness. He looked a bit weak in his first outting and got beat by Rublev, but he made some improvements and won the title in Cincinnati. He’s one of the three big favorites to win this title, and he’s on a win streak. His opponent McDonald is making his way back up the rankings with some good play post-clay, but he doesn’t have much of a chance here other than a physical letdown from Jannik. Sinner in 3.

Spizzirri vs Michelsen :

Michelsen is into the finals in Winston-Salem against Lorenzo Sonego so he might be fatigued, but I don’t think he’ll drop out of his home slam. He’ll have an interesting first round here. Spizzirri was really impressive in qualifying and he hasn’t really had a lot of experience on tour so this is a life-changing result. In the final round he was up against it with Joao Fonseca, but he was just a bit more steady throughout. Fonseca has shown the ability to win sets against most of the tour, but his losses have all been his opponents outlasting him in terms of stamina. Fonseca has a tremendous future, but right now he can still get dragged down a bit by good baseliners. Spizzirri won’t get as many errors from Michelsen, but playing a familiar opponent means he won’t be too nervous in the moment. Michelsen doesn’t hit as huge as Fonseca, but he’s in excellent form right now and his serve is decent. Coming off a finals run I’d expect a little fatigue and it may take him a set or two to adjust, but Michelsen is at a higher level right now than Spizzirri. Spizzirri will win all the sets where Michelsen struggles to land first serves, but it doesn’t feel guaranteed that he’ll get more than one. Michelsen in 4.

Bellucci vs Wawrinka :

I just always expect Wawrinka to play well in the first round, but there’s no guarantee here. Where he has struggled a bit in recent history is against the players who can extend the match, and Bellucci fits that bill. He wasn’t really in much trouble in qualifying, and he mostly competes off tour, but he has wont 9 of his last 10 matches. In a 2/3 format I like Stan, because his serve and power are still there and Bellucci takes a while to get going. In the 3/5 structure though, I think Bellucci being lefty may pay dividends as the match drags on. If he can isolate Stan’s backhand (one of the best one-handers ever, but still a one-hander) he’ll be able to get control of rallies quite often and he’s pretty adept at taking his forehand down the line when stretched wide so Wawrinka will have to do a lot of running. Double expectations here, Wawrinka in 3, or Bellucci in 5.

O’Connell vs Jarry :

This match features some tough situations. O’Connell is having physical issues this season, and has retired three times. Jarry has been dealing with vertigo issues. Jarry is better, but O’Connell might be more able to play a long match. With so much uncertainty here, I’d be happy if both are able to complete the match. Jarry’s close losses to Etcheverry and Musetti look a little better than O’Connell’s straight set losses to Rinderknech and Nakashima, but Jarry really hasn’t won a match in quite some time. The question of who can fare better in a long match might come up since neither will be that dominant from the baseline, so while Jarry’s power and serve can get him the early sets, his skid seems like it’ll be hard to break at a major. O’Connell in 4.

Fils vs Tien :

Learner Tien is having a Tallon Griekspoor level run lately. This year he won 28 matches in a row, which is honestly unheard of on tour. He has a very solid game from the baseline and being lefty doesn’t hurt much either. Tien doesn’t have the most power, so playing Arthur Fils represents a big test. Tien is good enough to beat players at this level as shown by his wins agains Maroszan and Seyboth Wild, but it will take a long time to get there with his game style. Fils loses to impatience and unforced errors, and Tien earns them. I don’t see a way for Fils to win quickly, and despite being the favored player he’s the one who could crash out quicker if he isn’t careful with his shot selection. Tien is likely to make his way on tour in the next year or so, but here I think Fils will find his form and win just on being the more powerful player. Fils in 4-5.

Munar vs Diallo :

Diallo was down a set and a break against Titouan Droguet, and from there he found his absolute best tennis and never looked back. The rest of qualifying was a formality, and beating Royer was a tremendous win with the form he was in. Now, he finds himself with a very winnable match. Diallo has a huge serve, good mobility for a server, and of course an excellent serve. He can still lose at the lower level, but if he gets into a good groove he’s a dangerous player. Munar is never really the most dangerous on hardcourt, so Diallo will like his chances, but the matches you’re supposed to win are often very difficult. Add in that Munar has recently beaten Gaston and Sonego, and taken sets of Draper and Goffin, and this would actually be Diallo’s best win on tour. What I saw from Munar against Jack Draper was very aggressive returning and clean hitting. Munar wasn’t able to really generate winners during neutral rallies, but he earned a lot of errors from Jack and kept him moving. That will be the key for him against Diallo.

For Diallo, the numerous matches he’s won recently at the Challenger level need to serve him right now. If he competes for 3-4 hours, he can beat Munar. Jaume is steady but he doesn’t blow you off the court, and Diallo’s serving will pay dividends over the course of a long match. I think he’s just good enough to get through here, but he’ll have to weather the early storm from Munar, who tends to start matches sharp. Diallo in 5.

Purcell vs Vukic :

Decent draw for both. While I like Purcell’s game a bit better, Vukic has won almost all of their matches, including the last 3. When compatriots play each other, the same patterns tend to emerge because they’re so familiar with each others games. Purcell is on a bit of a skid losing 4 of his last 5, so Vukic will like his chances here. I see Vukic’s backhand as a target, but it will be hard to hit through him on these slightly slower courts so his conservative shot selection won’t be as much of an issue. Since Vukic’s level can rise and fall randomly, I expect this to take at least four sets, but he has to open as the favorite given their h2h and recent play. Vukic in 4.

Sonego vs Paul :

Sonego is in the finals of Winston-Salem right now, and he won their previous meeting on hardcourt, but I still don’t like him here. It just feels like Tommy Paul having such a solid backhand will always let him slow down Sonego’s offense. Lorenzo plays behind a huge forehand/dropshot combo, and he can serve really well. He’s the type of player who would look like Federer at the Challenger level, but on tour his defensive backhand is exposed quite often and his impatience on offense can hurt him also. Given Sonego’s level, this should be very close, but I think Tommy at his home slam will be a tough out. Paul in 5.

Kokkinakis vs Tsitsipas :

The first round here has a ton of excellent matches. Great for fans, not so good for me. This one is tough because of how inconsistent Tsitsipas has been this year. He’s just recently removed his father as coach, which is certainly a good decision. Despite his affinity for philosophy, Tsitsipas’ ego remains most of the impediment to his progress. One of the best ways to overcome that is to spend some time alone in self-inquiry and problem solving. If he’s not constantly looking to his box for info and reactions, he’ll focus more on the court, and then I think he might remember his old game. When Stefanos came on tour, he was a creative delight to watch. He used height and huge spin to win against lower tier players, and he would dial up the pace gradually when he got to a difficult test. He served well, but he’d throw in equal kick serves and net rushes. He’d camp in the backhand corner, and when people threatened to the forehand wing he’d punish them. There was none of the posturing, no hitting the ball at his opponents, not looking across the net like a tough guy, and honestly lately he has looked like he’s not even enjoying being out there. He needs to find that again. If you’re not enjoying what you’re doing, you won’t get the best out of your game.

Technically, even though Stef’s backhand is struggling, I think it’s solvable. Focusing more on the court and not having outside noise or distractions is an excellent way to be, and more proactive footwork is almost always part of the key to solving a one-handed backhand. It’s more work, but it’s worth it. Kokkinakis’ job in this match is to find that wing. He has a good enough serve and forehand to score, and beating Monfils and RBA in Monterrey means he’s in decent form. These two seem almost equal in the serve/forehand department, but Tsitsipas’ physical ability is a whole level higher than Thanasi’s. I think he’ll offer up the usual shanks, but he’ll make more gets and look stronger in a long match. Tsitsipas in 4-5.

Borges vs Coria :

Nuno Borges is a regular commodity on tour now and it’s fun to watch. It still seems like he can lose at any moment, but a match like this against Coria is something that used to be risky and now feels almost assured. Coria can play great at times, but those times are few and far between at this stage in his career. Borges in 3-4.

Schoolkate vs Daniel :

Schoolkate getting a wildcard is well deserved for a player who has been really grinding away on the Challenger tour for a long time. Tristan hits clean and can win against players in the 100-200 level, so Taro Daniel is someone he may like his chances against. Daniel has been on tour for a long time, but he’s never really elevated his game to a level that would make him unplayable against the lower tier. Both are doing most of their work from the baseline, and Schoolkate is a little sharper right now. Three sets last week against Learner Tien is a good warmup for the type of rallies Schoolkate will have against Daniel, and I don’t really see a huge difference between their current levels so this is a good chance for both to make the second round. I’ll take Schoolkate for now since I think he serves a bit better and is more accomplished recently. Schoolkate in 4.

Auger-Aliassime vs Mensik :

Auger-Aliassime has sort of ended his slump. I saw sort of because I still can’t trust him, and he sits in that Dimitrov category for me where I want to believe but I’ve been hurt too many times. WHY GRIGGY WHYYYYYY??? In any event, I would normally like Mensik in this as the more stable performer, but he’s been struggling lately. A loss to Vukic is bad, because he really is a similar player to Felix with much less pace, a slightly worse serve, and less speed. Felix looked decent post-Olympics (where he made the semifinals) and was able to defeat Kovacevic and Ruud before losing a close match to Draper. There’s no guarantee Mensik will struggle here so I’m optimistic this will be a good match, but it seems like Felix is starting to trend in the right direction. Two impressively heavy forehands and two promising young talents. FAA in 3-4 is what I’m expecting given the recent results, but I’m always nervous hoping for things like that.

Cobolli vs Duckworth :

Cobolli is another in a list of tremendous Italian Next Gen players. Arnaldi, Berrettini, Sinner, etc, these guys play hard and they get results. Even Passaro is starting to show signs of making the transitions. Cobolli plays every point like it’s match point, and if his opponent can’t play two full sets of peak tennis, he snags them. Here he’ll have a long test against Duckworth. I think a lot of players will write off Duckworth here, but he plays well at the US Open and he wants to play long rallies from the baseline. The difference here will be serving. In the past few weeks, Cobolli’s spot serving has started to get really effective. I’m excited about his ceiling, and this is a good draw for fans since he’ll see Medvedev in the third round. Cobolli in 4.

Bergs vs Kotov :

Tricky match here. Kotov and Bergs have both won a few matches recently (Svajda/Muller and Opelka/Etcheverry respectively) but neither are at their best. Kotov is struggling to land his serves, so Bergs should be able to play even here. Kotov has constantly wound up in long matches, and he looks exhausted but keeps playing well. Bergs’ best tennis is a little bit better once the edge is off, but he has a very straightforward approach and Kotov hits bigger and has more variety. This should be a great match, I’ll take Bergs in 5.

Maroszan vs Medjedovic :

Medjedovic comes into this match in strange form. He’s playing solid tennis, but he was in trouble in every single match in qualifying. Those matches were against much weaker players than Maroszan, and Maroszan just beat Dimitrov recently. Despite the expectations for Maroszan, I think Medjedovic has a chance here. Both players have incredible offense and power, but Maroszan seems to make a lot of rally ball errors still. When he’s hitting clean he’s almost unplayable, but he takes a high risk high reward approach to the game and can hit himself out of matches. Medjedovic won their last meeting in 3 in Stuttgart (grass) and despite playing some lower tier opponents, he’s coming into this on a win streak while Maroszan has lost his last two matches. I can’t quite explain why I like Medjedovic, because he’s been subpar lately and somewhat inactive on tour, but Maroszan’s hardcourt game is not as far along as him. Medjedovic in 4.

Lajovic vs Medvedev :

Simple one here one would expect. Lajovic is not at his best anymore and Medvedev should do well in these conditions. He’s had some random losses this season but this would be very confusing. Medvedev in 3-4.

Alcaraz vs Tu :

It’s pretty frustrating for Li Tu to play so well in qualifying and then land here in the draw. I think he could have given trouble to a lot of players with his speed and aggressive hitting, but Alcaraz just doesn’t feel like a realistic target. Carlos will like these slightly slower conditions, and he continues to improve. My outlook it that Alcaraz will win almost every big title for the next 3 years before someone from the next next gen starts to make inroads. He’s physically superior to most of his contemporaries, and it takes years to pack on that kind of muscle, and years of playing at that pace/focus level to make it become your normal. It’s the Nadal formula all over again. It’s only going to drive the tour level up, but in the short term I think he’s a big problem. Alcaraz has a tendency to range-find early in hardcourt events, so Tu could go up a break or even snag a set, but Carlos should march through this draw fairly comfortably until he meets Draper in round 3. Alcaraz in 3-4.

Shapovalov vs Van De Zanschulp :

El Shapo has re-earned his nicknames. He slumped so hard for a while that I stopped even making fun of him. Jokes are fine, but when someone isn’t even joyous enough to rap, it’s time to support them. This first round is a gift. Botic is capable of playing great tennis, but he looks almost done on tour. He has discussed retirement, and when an offensive talent becomes unfocused or frustrated it’s usually hard to snap out of it (see exhibit A : Benoit Paire). Shapovalov is more durable defensively, and despite two recent losses he’s been winning matches on tour again. Shapovalov in 3.

Diaz Acosta vs Gaston :

When I doubt Gaston, he wins 1,2. When I believe in him, I see highlights on Youtube later of “Gaston destroys racquet”. Here, he has a great draw but a weird matchup. Diaz Acosta isn’t great on hardcourt, but him being a speedy defender whose goal is to outlast you is interesting against a guy who doesn’t have a lot of power and relies largely on dropshots. The clay pedigree should allow Diaz to deal with what Gaston brings, and he did trouble Taylor Fritz on hardcourt earlier this year so the level can be there. I think this might go the distance, as neither really has the game to dominate the other. Diaz Acosta in 5. This might be foolish given his losses to Albot and Galarneau but I don’t really trust Gaston until he wins his first round.

Zhang vs Draper :

Zhang has given us some heroic performances at this tournament but this is a tough draw. Draper is one of the more powerful hardcourt players, and he can match Zhang in the hitting department which is where Zhizhen does most of his damage. I don’t see this taking more than 4 sets for Draper. He redirects pace too well and he’s playing solid lately even if there have been some admittedly slow starts. Draper in 4.

Tabilo vs Goffin :

Goffin looked great last week and then he Goffin’d us and crashed out in a lopsided match against Lorenzo Sonego. It’s so hard to gauge these days when he’s going to play well and when his racquet is going to turn into cardboard. He’ll come in here with a lot of buzz, but I don’t think he’ll win. Tabilo is battle-tested at this point and has proven himself on hardcourt. Hitting through Goffin takes a lot of work, and Goffin did beat Tabilo on clay in Madrid in 2022, so it won’t be one-sided. To me, Tabilo has a much more dangerous serve and his forehand is the biggest shot on the court. Goffin can frustrate him into errors and has a great court-sense, but I think he’ll get worn down. Tabilo in 5.

Coric vs Mannarino :

Mannarino is showing signs of life, but it’s getting very late in the season. He’s lost ten in a row, but has won sets in 5 of the last 6. He leads the h2h 4-0 against Coric, so he’ll believe he has a shot, but those matches were back in 2019/2017, so it’s unlikely they’ll go a similar route. Coric is trending upwards, and Mannarino is treading water. Coric in 4.

Fognini vs Machac :

Fognini seems ageless at this point, as his play at the majors still wows the crowd and he his court coverage seems fine. I don’t think he can beat Machac, but the frustrated quitting Fognini hasn’t really been around this year. He plays sparingly, he plays hard, and he shakes hands. It’s nice. Machac in 4 is what I expect. He can struggle with consistency, but he really is aggressive about hitting to the open court and Fognini doesn’t want to run sprints for an entire match.

Moutet vs Korda :

Yesssssss. The last time these two played it contained so much delicious spice. Korda ended up winning in 5 in the AO 2022, but it was a match he really was lucky to pull through. For that reason, Moutet’s recent slump doesn’t bother me that much. That day I saw that Korda’s pace is something Moutet is fine with. He’s fast enough to run down Korda’s shots, and Korda is passive enough to allow that. What helped Moutet that day is that the scoreline for close, so Korda didn’t want to miss. He’s a great frontrunner, so if he gets off to gets off to a fast start I think Corentin will struggle to get back on even terms. Since Moutet’s backhand has lost some consistency, I think Sebastian will fare better this time. Korda in 4.

De Minaur vs Giron :

De Minaur is back which is great. He injured himself on match point in Wimbledon against Fils, and this will be his first match back. I’m not optimistic about his level here, and Giron has beaten him a few times in the past. Marcos isn’t exactly thriving, but it’s really tough to play your best tennis after an injury layoff and I think Giron might surprise some people here. Giron in 4-5.

Virtanen vs Halys :

Not a good match to be some balls. Halys hits the ball so heavy that he appears to be 7 feet tall. Virtanen slaps at the ball harder every time he misses, which causes him to win and lose sets in rapid succession. This is going to come down to who wins a few big points each set, because I don’t think there will be many breaks. Both are extremely good servers, and both qualified in impressive form. For me, Virtanen is better, but Halys is more consistent. Major coinflip situation, but I think Halys’ stability might get him through. Halys in 5.

Navone vs Altmaier :

I like Navone here. Altmaier has turned in some great performances, but that was a while ago. Navone isn’t really adept at hardcourt, but he rallies with intensity and he is hard to hit through. Altmaier should win, but I think Navone’s job is simpler since he’s just defending and sticking to his normal patterns. Navone in 4.

Evans vs Khachanov :

Khachanov hasn’t been great lately, but Evans looks like he’s almost crashing off tour. He’s struggling to win matches, and Khachanov is a bad matchup for him since he hits so heavy and doesn’t really give up many unforced errors. Karen has a good draw here. Khachanov in 4.

Arnaldi vs Svajda :

The first wildcard Svajda had featured a tremendous five set clash against Paolo Lorenzi. It took a few seasons after that for him to finally get traction, but this season he’s been solid and seems like he’ll get into the top 100 consistently. There’s just a lot of competition on tour now unfortunately and fortunately. Case in point here, I think Svajda has a good game and good defending, but he plays somewhat similar to Arnaldi. Matteo hits a little harder, he’s a little more disciplined, and his backhand is better. Should be a fun match, but I think Arnaldi will be a game better in every set. Arnaldi in 3-4.

Forbes vs Safiullin :

Forbes time! I have been bested here, I don’t know who he is. He looks to be a promising junior prospect I know that Safiullin is starting to cook, so anyone from a lower tier is going to be in big trouble against him. Safiullin in 3.

Lestienne vs Thompson :

I am seeing some lucky draws here in the early goings and I think it means there will be some difficult stuff in the bottom half. Constance Lestienne is a great player when he’s on, but he just hasn’t been that active and hasn’t really churned out good results. There’s not a great deal of science here. If you’re not active on tour, it’s hard to beat the guys who are sharp. Thompson in 3-4.

Skatov vs Hurkacz :

Skatov qualifying and playing Hurkacz is unfortunate, but Hubert has been slightly unreliable at times lately. I don’t think Skatov will win, but Hurkacz can throw in rough service games. Skatov has a great serve and good power, and he’s become adept at making comebacks. I just don’t think Hurkacz is a guy you want to give a lead to. Hurkacz retired from his last match with a calf injury so there’s no way to know how reliable he’ll be here, and Skatov just outdueled Harris and Zhukayev so he’s more than capable of dealing with long service battles. Hurkacz in 4 or Skatov via withdrawal.

Ruud vs Bu :

I just don’t like Ruud here. Bu is not a player who wins at this level thus far, but he looks so comfortable on the court. He dealt with one of the best performances Aslan Karatsev has turned in in a while, and he was the one who was standing at the end. It’s not just that Bu outlasted him, he hits the ball solid and goes after his shots. Casper Ruud has not had a good season on hardcourt, and he’s classic for playing to his opponents level on this surface. Ruud at his best will just grind Bu down, but if you want to win behind a huge forehand you can’t make errors and you have to be at your best with footwork and Ruud doesn’t really seem that way right now. I like Bu here in 4-5.

Monfils vs Schwartzman :

Diego is back and it’s so welcome. He was projected to do well in qualifying in every round which I found somewhat hard to believe. He’s been struggling to win matches for over a year now and the issue has been unforced errors on normal rally balls. It’s startling to see someone who was so automatic during the rally unable to hang in one, so seeing him play well this week is almost a “phew” moment. Schwartzman could bother Monfils in this because Monfils is somewhat passive with his shot selection at times. He likes to work the point slowly and then turn up the pace on a big forehand. What I see at times is that when the big forehand gets returned, he goes for something bigger. If Diego can establish that he’s not going to miss, he might do well here. The problem is that I don’t think Diego can score on Monfils that easily. Gael is older, but he’s still moving well and he has a very useful serve.

This is a big step up from guys like Tirante and Gaubus who Schwartzman was dealing with in qualifying and he’s facing La Monf at an interesting time. Monfils is beatable but he just outdueled Alcaraz. That wasn’t necessarily Carlos’ best performance, but it’s the kind of atmosphere and match that awakens someone’s love for the game again. Monfils loves to be in those big matches and I think he’ll be enjoying his tennis this week. Monfils in 4-5.

Choinski vs Carballes Baena :

At a minor event I’d like Jan Choinski here. At the US Open, I still do, but it starts to get very close. RCB has been losing on hardcourt, but he’s very solid and competes well at majors. The longer structure gives a boost to the guys who can play their same game for 4-5 hours. Choinski has a big serve, great power, and hardcourt is his best surface, but it’s hard to supply all the offense for several hours. RCB’s backhand is extremely solid, and even if his serve and forehand aren’t great, it’s hot out and Choinski doesn’t exactly have a lot of wins at tour level. I do like that Choinski was able to hold off Cachin in the first round, but I think this will be close. Choinski in 4.

Shang vs Bublik :

Bublik is like Paire. One of the best entertainers on tour, but really difficult to motivate. He’s struggling lately so while he’s capable of elevating and beating Shang, I don’t expect it to happen. Shang has been steadily improving, and he seems to really care about his tennis. He had hired Marcelo Rios early on, but they cancelled the partnership when the results didn’t come. He plays a very defensive baseline style of tennis, but as time goes on he’s started to really work on more aggressive groundstrokes. The kid just seems to work hard and want to improve, and Bublik seems very results oriented when it comes to his effort level. The conflicting portion of this is that Bublik won 4,1 when they met at Indian Wells this year. It’s hard to predict because it’s a major and Bublik has the ability to win, but hasn’t been winning matches. The flipside is that Shang has been playing some great tennis, but has withdrawn from the last two tournaments and has some leg issues. Healthy Shang wins. Motivated Bublik wins. Which shows up is beyond me.

Humbert vs Monteiro :

This should be fun and it’s a big letdown spot for Humbert. He’s been playing solid tennis in the matches he’s slated to win, and Monteiro is not at his best this season. Humbert’s backhand is much better, and he serves better than Monteiro as well. He should wrap this up easily, but Monteiro won their previous meeting and he has the ability to get to overtime in sets against better opposition. Humbert in 3-4.

Stricker vs Comesana :

Stricker’s return has included some tough losses, so this is a very lucky first round. Comesana has been subpar since his heroic defeat of Andrey Rublev, so Stricker enters as the favorite. Maybe I saw something different from Comesana than he’s usually bringing to the table, but he seemed very solid in that Wimbledon run and he served well also. Heading into this I liked Stricker because on hardcourt he’s performed at an extremely high level, but gauging the return to a high level post-injury is really difficult, and he hasn’t shown much yet. A long match is a tough prospect, and it will be one against Comesana given his playstyle and speed. The question is whether Comesana can organize himself and give his best effort after struggling in smaller events, or if Stricker can bring his best tennis for an extended period when he hasn’t really done so yet. I think Comesana’s job is simpler, and I expect him to outlast Stricker. Comesana in 5.

Ramos vs Berrettini :

I love ARV and he’s given us some of the most enjoyably steady tennis on clay, but this is near impossible for him to win. Berrettini is playing top 20 level tennis and him and Fritz in the second round is going to be excellent. Berrettini in 3.

Fritz vs Carabelli :

Reliable Fritz is something I thought I’d never see, and I don’t even hate it that much. He just lost to Korda and Nakashima, but losing several matches in a row is a form of reliable also. Ugo Carabelli is good, but he isn’t going to beat Fritz at home. There’s just a big difference in serving, and Taylor’s losses were to opponents in great form. Fritz in 3-4.

Rune vs Nakashima :

It’s hard to pick Rune here, but it’s hard to pick Nakashima also. I think this is an actual even match, but Holger Vitus is the one who has to step up to make it so. Nakashima has beaten Rune in both their meetings, and he’s been playing his best tennis this year. He has oddly servebottish stats for a shorter guy, and his game is oddly conservative but he still seems to be scrambling around the court trying to force the issue. Early in his career the expectations were really high, and he’s sort of meeting them now. Beating Tommy Paul, Taylor Fritz, and mid-Shapovalov is right at the level you need to beat Rune. Rune stepped it up in Cincinnati and won 4 matches in a row, so there’s a good chance this match will have fireworks.

When he’s playing his best, Rune can beat Nakashima. His issues mirror Gauff’s, but he doesn’t thrive when he reverts to passive play. He tends to go for instant offense and sprays unforced errors quite often, or he spends the match playing too far behind the baseline and looking for errors. The problem with hanging back and looking for errors is that it lacks awareness. There is no pressure in these moments for his opponent because he’s just rolling the ball in. When Gauff does into defensive mode she hits every ball hard, and the depth tends to be there. Her opponent realizes they have to create something to buy time for themselves or escape a rally, and they make errors. Scrambling is a great pressure-builder on a big point, but not every point is a big point. When Rune rolls the ball in or hits with no depth it awakens something pro-tennis players have been trained in for a long time, ball drills. They’ve spent hundreds of hours on the practice courts training their technique on easy balls from hitting partners and coaches, they’re not going to fumble unless you have depth or pace. Gauff just needs to be a bit more measured with her offense and she’s already winning majors so this isn’t even required, but Rune needs to merge his two approaches. Use his speed and footwork to take away his opponent’s time, go smaller on his offensive shots, and hit with more spin/depth on his defensive pushes.

If Rune plays this match in a passive manner, he’s allowing Nakashima to win. Brandon won’t miss to much with time, and his only real weakness is that he’s not the fastest lateral mover. Here we either get the best Rune, or he loses. Seems to be a tough stylistic matchup for him, so I’m leaning towards Nakashima in 4.

Cazaux vs Carreño-Busta :

Bought my mom a house, spent the rest on PCB. It’s so good to see Pablo back on tour. His hitting is so clean and his shot selection is great. Last week he even served well, but a lingering leg issue ended up having him retire down a set against Michelsen in the semis. In what is becoming a theme, I again have to admit that I don’t have a real way to know how he’ll be for this match. Cazaux also is dealing with injury issues quite frequently, and his game is not at his best. What PCB brought last week will beat Cazaux, but if his movement is hampered then Cazaux’s ability to hit his backhand down the line will create problems. Healthy PCB in 4.

Nishioka vs Kecmanovic :

Sometimes I feel like Miomir is a twin and his evil twin really likes to play tennis but is only at the ITF level so he coerced Miomir to switch out a few times a year and gets smoked. Kecmanovic’s hitting is so good when he’s winning, but it doesn’t seem like he can maintain the timing. He did well here before, but he lost to Nishioka in their last meeting and Yoshihito is sort of playing well. There should be ample time for Kecmanovic to find his game here, but he just lost to Nishioka last week in Cinncinati so the clock is ticking. Nishioka in 3-4. If you can’t hit through Nishioka and you’re making errors, he’s just going to thrive.

Opelka vs Musetti :

Opelka has won their previous meetings, so even with Musetti’s new level, this is a tough spot. Opelka has the most ridiculous serve you will see on tour, and even though his mechanics are a little funky, his groundstrokes can be very effective when he has setups. Musetti’s returning with a one-hander is likely the issue against a tall guy like Opelka, because the trajectory of the serve can often take it above where Musetti can really generate pace. Lorenzo is having one of his best seasons ever and Opelka just lost to Bergs, Shelton, and Thompson so there’s conflicting info in a few directions. I don’t see Musetti having a good shot at breaking Opelka much but it’s hard to picture Opelka winning many baseline rallies. This will likely come down to whether Opelka can squeak out a few tiebreakers. If Musetti wins even one tiebreak I think I like his side. He’s made great improvements on faster surfaces and Opelka’s return from injury has been less than swift. Musetti in 5.

Cerundolo vs Ofner :

Cerundolo losing on hardcourt is a scary sign because he started the year with zero success on the surface. He seems unwilling to revert to a defensive style when things go poorly, so he’s become a flight risk in second sets. In a major format he has more chances to drop sets and start off well in the next one, but an opponent like Ofner should be safe for him and it probably won’t be. Cerundolo beat Ofner in Miami in 3 earlier this season, and I’m expecting a similar result. Ofner didn’t bother to play any warmup events post-Olympics, so I think Cerundolo’s rough level is slightly better than his inefficiency. Cerundolo in 4-5.

Perricard vs Etcheverrry :

Perricard has struggled to win matches on hardcourt and so has Etcheverry. Perricard’s serve and game seems much more suited to hardcourt but it’s hard to see him play consistently. Servers get a bit of a boost in a 3/5 format because the one thing that tends to dip over time for normal players is their delivery. They’re doing more work from the baseline so their legs get worn down and that’s where you get most of the power for your serve. Servers are playing short points and tend to be much taller so it’s not as much fatigue over time. The rough Etcheverry can have timing issues on his forehand, but maybe this slightly slower surface will help him. Perricard beat him on clay in Lyon also which is pretty impressive, but that week seems to have been his best on tour. Sometimes there just isn’t a simple answer to who’s going to win. Both of these guys have strengths and weaknesses. Etcheverry has huge swings and needs time, and Perricard can be a little bit impatient in rallies because he’s not the fastest or most durable guy. I think Perricard is the only one that could win in straight sets, but given their struggles so far this month I don’t think it’s possible Etcheverry in 5.

Muller vs Walton :

Muller has fallen off, and Walton plays mostly at the Challenger level. Walton definitely has a better serve and good hardcourt results this year, but he’s lost his last five in a row. Muller isn’t much better, losing to Kotov, Boyer (who isn’t even on tour), and barely beating Lestienne. Probably a lucky spot for both, Muller in 4-5.

Zverev vs Ruusuvori :

Ruusuvuori is still struggling a bit to find form. Zverev is one of the second tier threats to win this tournament. I could see Ruusuvuori winning a set, but Zverev should roll here. If Ruusuvuori beats Zverev it’ll basically be the surprise of the tournament. Zverev in 3-4.

Rublev vs Seyboth Wild :

Thiago almost beat Rublev in the Australian Open earlier this year, so this has potential to be very interesting. Rublev has been in terrible spirits for much of this year, and it’s hard to watch. He just seems so wound up there, and it definitely affects his play when he loses control. Luckily for him, Seyboth Wild is not really at his best and Rublev has just made the finals of Cincinnati. He’s been able to beat guys like Nakashima and Zhang and Arnaldi who are right around or slightly better than Thiago’s level, so this should be a good chance to win in a safer way. Since he’s still not comfortable with the arrival of emotions, I don’t see this being easy, but Rublev in 4. Does Rublev get focused for “revenge” matches? Let’s find out

Eubanks vs Rinderknech :

Rinderknech is coming into this playing his absoute best tennis, and Eubanks still has a shot. Rinderknech has great serves and comes to net well. Eubanks has one of the best serves on tour, and he plays well in the US. For me Rinderknech’s backhand is a big key here. It’s usually a bit more stable than Eubanks’ one-hander, and if he has that safe zone to sit in during rallies it’ll keep him a lot more focused. It’s hard to really shut anyone out in this match because both players are almost purely offense, and neither can run multiple sprints across the baseline without losing some accuracy/depth in their shots. I think Rinderknech is just a little better right now, and he should sneak by in 5.

Grenier vs Krueger :

Mitchell Krueger is someone I thought was done on tour, but he was the steadiest player in qualifying other than Spizzirri. Beating Shelbayh and Marterer is excellent, and he’ll have a chance here. The problem with him advancing is that his style is similar to Grenier’s qualifying opponents. Hsu was playing tremendous baseline tennis, and Grenier was able to beat him. Hugo has a huge serve and good skill from the baseline. He’s not going to win any wind sprints or marathons, but he’s coming into this match relatively fresh and from 0-0 I like his game over Krueger’s. Krueger plays well but he’s been grinding away more than dominating opponents. Grenier will have an easier time holding serve and he’ll get chances in Krueger’s game. Mitchell could make a later run and I’d be surprised if Grenier wins in straights, but I think even if it goes deep Grenier’s serving will be a very useful tool. Grenier in 4-5.

Fucsovics vs Lehecka :

It’s rare that a player returns from a layoff and wins, but that’s what Lehecka did against Navone and Medvedev in Cincinnati. He also defeated Fucsovics in Dubai earlier this year in 3. He’ll be confident, and so far he’s played enough tennis that I don’t think stamina will be an issue. Fucsovics has looked better in the past month or so, but he still doesn’t have the level of offense that Lehecka does, and relying so heavily on a slice backhand leaves a safe zone for Lehecka’s inside-out forehand to work. He gets good shape on this shot and seems most comfortable with it so it’s a decent matchup for him. Lehecka in 4.

Baez vs Darderi :

I’m not line-judging for this one. This has potential to be a 5 hour match. Baez is struggling to play consistent tennis. He’s generally a wall when he’s winning, and he doesn’t miss much with his backhand. Lately, that’s been the issue. When the defensive wizards make errors, it’s really hard for them to win. Darderi is also a brick wall on defense, but he’s starting to serve better and him elevating his level on hardcourt (including a nice win against Tabilo) makes this a pretty even contest. Right now, I like Darderi but Baez has beaten him in most of their previous meetings (all on clay) so it’s likely that neither one will have an easy time hitting through the other. I kinda like Baez in 5, but Darderi is bringing the better level in so it’s tricky.

Nagal vs Griekspoor :

Griekspoor lost both his openers this hardcourt swing, but he lost them in three to decent opposition (Sonego, Michelsen). Nagal can play well on hardcourt and he tries hard but his best game is on clay where he can use his speed. This will be difficult for him. Griekspoor in 3-4.

Hijikata vs Davidovich Fokina :

I want this to be close. I want every ADF match to be close just to see if he underarm serves on match point. It feels like he’s done it so many times and it hasn’t work that now he’ll super double bluff people and go for it anyway. The old “there’s no way I should do it, so I’ll do it” move. Hijikata is good on hardcourt, has had great results at the US Open, and is playing an inconsistent opponent. Still, I don’t think he matches up well here. ADF is as fast as him, and neither has a real useful serve so it’s even there. ADF’s backhand is a lot more effective, and he’s a great big match player. I think Hijikata can get a little bit passive at times and relies on his legs, and ADF is error prone but he’s always looking to hit the next offensive shot in a rally so I think Hijikata will play him into a good rhythm. ADF in 4-5.

Jacquet vs Dimitrov :

Kyrian Jacquet was one of the best players in qualifying and I think him and Dimitrov is going to be a delight. He’s playing lower tier opponents but he’s hitting the ball very well and Dimitrov is not 100%. Against Maroszan he was playing great, but in the second set his back seemed to start bothering him. He lost his first serve almost immediately, and ended up losing in three. Dimitrov has a thing where he never retires from matches, so this means he may have been injured and not revealed it. In any event, it’s a good spot for Jacquet to showcase his skill, and maybe have a chance against an opponent who is less than 100%. Dimitrov in 3-4 or Jacquet via hard to watch 4.

Shelton vs Thiem :

Dominic Thiem seems to be heading towards retirement, and I think in a few years we’ll realize how absurd his level of tennis was. For now I’m still hoping he’ll put it all together again, but I guess there are physical limits to how hard you can hit the ball, and him and Del Potro found them. I thank them for it, it was incredible watching people play like that. Thiem has inspired me. When I casually rip my backhand 40 feet sideways past the table while playing table tennis, I know he’s out there nodding in approval. When I put too much gel in my hair, I know he’s giving me the thumbs up. For now, I think this match is unwinnable. Shelton is serving well, and while I harp on his Shapo-esque impatient forehand errors, he’s still one of the top hardcourt players in this tournament. Shelton in 3.

Nardi vs Bautista-Agut :

It’s been a while since Nardi did anything, and RBA has found himself a decent level of tennis again. Nardi also withdrew from his last match against Krueger so a less than 100% guy who’s struggling with his form going against someone who minimizes errors, doesn’t take risks, and wants to play for 4 hours. RBA in 3-4.

Shevchenko vs Koepfer :

Shevchenko seems to struggle at times on hardcourt and lost his opener against Fucsovics. The stranger thing was that people seemed to see it coming. Fucsovics was priced to win and did. Now Shevchenko in middling form goes up against Koepfer, who is coming from playing clay and missed a few events with an ankle injury. Shevchenko won in 3 at Indian Wells, but neither player is in the form that they were back then. Koepfer is a tougher out than Fucsovics most of the time, and I think even though he’s rusty, the volume of tennis that these two will have to play should allow him to find his game on hardcourt. Shevchenko has good power and can extend rallies, but I think his shot selection is something that will allow Koepfer to run most things down. Koepfer in 5.

Tiafoe vs Kovacevic :

Tiafoe’s quotes are getting some buzz in the media lately, but I’ll go ahead and defend the most recent one. He was asked who the next American to win a major was, and he said himself (in a few extra words). I don’t disagree. Tommy Paul is better than him and is constantly in bigger moments on tour than him, but his game is not going to snag guys like Alcaraz or Sinner. Korda has promise and big wins, but physically he’s unlikely to win a major. Fritz is the most consistent he’s ever been and he gets to the second week fairly easily, but it feels like his lateral speed is always going to leave him beatable against Djokovic/Alcaraz/Sinner. So yeah, Tiafoe is the one who could do it. When he’s landing his serve and going full effort, it is an actual cannon. That’s something that can score against top players and get you to points in sets that you have no business being in. Tiafoe also has some of the best speed and agility on tour, which you need to play at the highest level. His forehand technique creates errors when he’s not focused, but it also allows him to go big against players who you can never beat unless you do. His backhand is … well … it’s over there. If Tiafoe’s backhand becomes as solid as a Khachanov or Medvedev or Sinner, then he’s instantly the best contender, so I hope he heard what he said. Tiafoe is most of the reason that Tiafoe loses most matches, it’s a lack of focus and full commitment to the entire season as a training exercise. He is the best chance the US has, and everyone wants him to commit to that.

Tiafoe speeches aside, he’s playing with decent effort lately, and he should beat Kovacevic here. Tiafoe’s serve and forehand are better than his opponents, and Kovacevic’s backhand is half a target at times. It’s really a question of whether Tiafoe is busy believing things about himself, or busy playing tennis and trying to win matches. Tiafoe in 4.

Popyrin vs Kwon :

Popyrin managed to win a surprising title in Montreal, and it was well deserved. Last year at the Australian Open he detailed how much work he’d been putting in, and while I think he was too quick to equate match wins as him being at a higher level, hard work does pay off. His physical strength allows him to get closer to playing the kind of aggressive game that he wants to with fewer errors, so it’s good. Kwon is really never active on tour, and using the protected ranking to get into majors feels like it’s not going to get him back. He’s still very good, so Popyrin needs to play his best. It’s just a matter of percentages here. If Popyrin isn’t spraying unforced errors he should win in 3-4.

Martinez vs Kasnikowski :

I always view Kasnikowski as a servebot, but watching him in qualifying his baseline game was extremely steady. When guys consistently find ways to win as underdogs on the Challenger tour, you can be sure they’re going to rise, and he finds himself in a great spot in this draw. Pedro Martinez has gotten himself back on tour with some excellent claycourt results, but prior to that he was in a very rough slump. I think Kasnikowski is slightly better on hardcourt and seeing how solid he was from the baseline means that Martinez’s one edge is gone. Should be a fairly even match because Martinez is not going to be terribly bothered by his opponent hitting the court, but I think Kasnikowski’s serve is going to give him a slight edge in this. Kasnikowski in 4-5.

Albot vs Djokovic :

Fresh off one of the best matches of the year, Djokovic arrives at a tournament that he really wants. He lets the guns go at the Olympic finals and just played all-out tennis until the end. It’s almost like he finally has accepted that Alcaraz is the favorite, and so he has nothing to lose. When you don’t want to lose, you tend to get a bit boxed up. When you’re okay with that outcome, it frees you up to compete for the crowd and for yourself, and that’s when you tend to play your best. Winning the US Open is something he’s done a few times, but the forfeit and the time he couldn’t attend and a handful of things I think would make one more very sweet. His opener here against Reddit’s favorite professional tennis player should be fun. Albot has been on a tear lately, and even though he’s very much outmatched here his style of tennis is fun to watch. He’s quick around the court, he has (or had) very solid break statistics, and with nothing to lose Radu should be able to enjoy this match. It’ll be a good look at Djokovic, although looking at the draw he won’t have much difficulty for a few rounds (Tiafoe/Shelton in round 3 is something I think he’ll be comfortable with). Djokovic love to drop the first set in his opening round, but Djokovic in 3.