2024 US Open Men's Finals
Sinner vs Fritz :
Jannik Sinner is one of the first players from the NextGen generation to elevate to a similar level to the old big 3. He’s not all the way there in terms of tennis, but his consistent play and his ability to win the matches he’s supposed to is a really good sign. If he wins the US Open, he’ll join Mats Wilander, Novak Djokovic, and Roger Federer as the only other players to win two hardcourt majors in a season. The match against Medvedev felt like the finals, and he’s been pretty consistent outside that. Similar to how Novak seems in good shape down 2 sets or at 5-5 in the first, Sinner’s likelihood of winning doesn’t seem to be score dependent. Jack Draper played him close and got to overtime in two of the three sets, but it never really felt like he would get through in the long run.
Sinner has fixed his stamina issues this season and winning quickly goes a long way towards avoiding them. He’s basically in the finals having dropped only one set, and the level that Draper/Paul/Medvedev were at makes me think that beating Sinner will take the performance of a lifetime. Enter Taylor Fritz? I’m not so sure. Fritz and Tiafoe posed different problems for Sinner. Tiafoe is more like Draper; if he has set point, there might be nothing you can do about him scoring, but he might throw in a rough game randomly. Fritz is a better player and he can maintain the same level for the whole match, but he can’t really elevate to that top tier level and most of his matches against the big 3 and their new replacements have made him look a game short per set. Simply put, Fritz is really good but is slightly slower than the other top players. Tennis is a game of minimizing errors and court coverage, and Sinner does these things a bit better than him.
Before I write Fritz off completely, it’s probably fair to give him some credit. Making the finals of the US Open is an accomplishment that basically secures your place in tennis conversations for years to come. If he retires tomorrow, this is enough to call his career a huge success. Fritz was one of my favorite players to hate on because of his mopey feline attitude during losses, but he has put in the work on the court (and off) to get himself to the top of the game and this result is well deserved. He has a win against Sinner in the past and anything can happen in a finals. If he wins, it’s good for tennis, because there’s no way for him to win unless he elevates to a level of tennis that has never been seen from him. Injuries happen and a finals can have wild momentum swings, but Sinner is legitimately incredible at tennis, and he has the experience, composure, and backing to play his best game here.
What I see from Sinner is that he’s not exactly at his most dangerous level early in a match. He plays a very measured game until he gets a lead, and then as he extends that lead he tends to get more offensive and really toast people. As far as the tennis matchup, Fritz needs to avoid errors on his backhand wing. Sinner goes up the line better than him, and his technique is a little more natural on the cross-court where Fritz tends to block his backhand back a bit more. The forehand matchup favores Sinner also, because he can create short angles with a less discernable swing than Fritz. For Taylor to create a short angle or ratchet up the pace, he has to really windmill his forehand and this is viewable to his opponent. Sinner defends to the corners just about as well as anyone on tour right now, so it’s a tough proposition for Fritz. He’ll need to be extremely patient, but not lose depth. I’m just not sure that he can play the type of rallies that Medvedev and Sinner did. Fritz has earned his way here with some tremendous wins (Berrettini/Zverev), but even the match against Tiafoe felt like one where neither player really brought the level you need to win a Grand Slam. It was a 5 setter where nobody really established a peak level, and Fritz mostly seemed to win by outlasting Frances. Tiafoe ran out of tennis at some point, and once unforced errors came into his game it was tough for Fritz to lose.
Sinner and Fritz’s last meeting was in 2023 in Indian Wells and Jannik won in three, but I have to admit that Sinner has made significant strides this season. “He’s different now” is fools gold, but, he is. Jannik Sinner has replaced Djokovic as the best returner on tour, and that is the main reason Fritz had so much trouble with Djokovic in their meetings. If you can block returns back down the middle, Fritz really can’t create angles and any short ball should let Sinner dictate safely. I expect this match to look pretty close for many games because Fritz maintains a steady level, but I think his defensive abilities will make every point where he loses control difficult to get back into. When your speed isn’t a factor in the other player’s mind, they just don’t make as many unforced errors. Overall it just feels like Sinner is capable of beating Fritz even if Taylor plays well, so the question for me is how many sets that takes. Since Medvedev got a set, and Draper got very close, I think Fritz with the home crowd should make some impact, I just think this is another match where it will always feel like Sinner is about to pull away, and if he gets the first his game will open up. Sinner in 3.