2024 Roland Garros Women's Singles Round Two Thursday Matches

Zheng vs Korpatsch :

Zheng will probably progress pretty far in this draw without entering the conversation for potential title winners, but she has delivered some heroic performance in majors so far in her career. This somewhat winnable section of the bracket is likely to get her to the second week fairly fresh, and Korpatsch is a tough out but a very safe opponent for her. Korpatsch is an excellent defender and moves the ball well but she doesn’t have a big serve and she doesn’t hit the ball that hard. Zheng puts a lot of effort into her footwork and technique, and it cuts down on unforced errors for her. Her serving is quietly some of the best on tour, and her second serve is almost as effective as her first. Korpatsch did well to outlast Krueger, but Zheng is much more consistent and hits just as big as Krueger. Zheng in 2.

Avanesyan vs Blinkova :

Blinkova pulled off a very surprising upset in the first round, beating Sorana Cirstea after having a fairly dismal run on clay in the events prior. I caught a good chunk of the match and Blinkova was her best self. She hit the ball solid, she was pretty consistent, and she applied pressure. When she plays like this, she can compete with some really good players, and it’s likely that her and Avanesyan is pretty close. Avanesyan took care of business against Zhu and she has a similar approach to Blinkova. She defends well, she doesn’t make many errors from the baseline, and she hits hard but to safe targets. Neither player has a great serve, so I would expect many breaks in this match. To me, it seems like Blinkova’s win means a lot more than Avanesyan’s, but that only means she’ll be competitive; it doesn’t guarantee victory. Still, that’s the side I’m expecting to triumph. Blinkova in 3.

Kalinskaya vs Andreescu :

Burel and Kalinskaya had a bunch of momentum changes in their match (15 breaks in 2 sets), and finally Kalinskaya has a good win on clay. It sets up an unexpected clash against Bianca Andreescu. Andreescu was expected to be rusty in her return, but she played well and dispatched Sorribes Tormo in straight sets. I knew early in the match Tormo was in trouble, as Andreescu broke her serve right away. If you can break Tormo once, you can put yourself in position to do it the entire match. Andreescu winning right away makes Kalinskaya a winnable match. In her past comebacks after injury Andreescu had played inconsistent, and generally could play well for a single set before starting to make errors on her way to a loss. Here, she’s sharp, and Tormo is a good warmup for Kalinskaya since both will make you play a lot of balls.

Kalinskaya is a slight favorite here since she hits bigger than Tormo, but clay is not her best surface and Andreescu’s B+ or A game is good enough to beat most people on tour. A lot of questions here, including whether Andreescu’s stamina will hold up after such a long layoff. I think she can win 1 more round. Andreescu in 2.

Baptiste vs Paolini : Paolini has sort of become the De Minaur of the WTA. She’s able to play at a pace that most players can’t hang at, and rarely is she upset by a lower ranked player. Baptiste has a lot of power and that makes her a dangerous underdog, but consistent performances haven’t been her thing yet and unforced errors are very costly against Paolini. Paolini in 2.

Svitolina vs Parry :

While Pliskova was up a set, Svitolina was still a 2:1 favorite to win the match. This feels a bit off to me, since Svitolina has struggled a bit this clay season. Her struggles have been pronounced enough that Parry has a shot here. Svitolina hits hard and defends relentlessly, so clay should be a good surface for her. Perhaps the struggles are behind her now that she’s won a few matches, and last week in Strasbourgh she played Parry and was able to win 6-3, 6-4. There’s not a great reason to expect a different result here, but Parry at home and feeling no pressure as an underdog can produce some heroic performances. Svitolina’s defense likely proves too good again. Svitolina in 2 close sets.

Bogdan vs Pavlyuchenkova :

Bogdan and Pavlyuchenkova are both through in straight sets and this should be a fun contest. Both are tour veterans with big power and great composure. I’m moving away from mentioning lines in these writeups, but the price for this one is funky. Pavluchenkova has never lost a set to Bogdan, and Ana has never won more than 2 games in a set. Bogdan is around +140 in this match though, which doesn’t really line up. Pavlyuchenkova hasn’t been great on clay, and Bogdan crushed Jacquemot in round one. It almost feels like this will be Bogdan’s first win, but I would guess that Pavlyuchenkova will outlast her in the end purely from being so familiar with her game. Pavlyuchenkova in 3.

Mertens vs Martic :

Mertens and Carle played a fiery first round. Mertens was the slightly bigger hitter throughout and it made all the difference. In the second set, Carle threatened to force a third and was able to break Mertens a few times, but Elyse closed out in the end. She gets another winnable match here against Petra Martic, who is playing well but has never defeated Mertens in 4 tries. Martic managed to defeat the crowd in round one against Krystina Mladenovic, and while it wasn’t her best tennis, she was pretty clutch and displayed some world-class skill. Martic’s backhand is not up to par, and she’s not the best mover on clay. She has big power and a nice serve, but Mertens in 2. Carle was a great warmup and I expect Mertens to be sharp.

Rus vs Rybakina :

Aranxta Rus played really well in round one. She was hitting with great depth against Kerber and she was able to earn errors as a result. Not a great reward in round two to be playing Rybakina, but at least she has the power to score if she does get chances. Rybakina should win this match every time, but Rus isn’t completely sunk. They played in 2022, and Rybakina won in 3 (6-2, 5-7, 6-2). That 7-5 set is never guaranteed to occur again, but it does show that Rus can hit with Elena and she’s in decent form here. Rybakina in 1 close and 1 lopsided set.

Gracheva vs Pera :

“Sakkari is finally consistent!” I announced, jinxing her all the way to a first round loss. Pretty much nobody had Gracheva beating Sakkari in round one, but she has won a bunch of matches in qualifying and at the lower level in the past few weeks, so I would assume she’s sharp here. Having lost to Shnaider in Paris makes me think she’ll have trouble with another powerful lefty here, and Pera beat Hibino 2,0 which is pretty impressive. Gracheva’s win and her activity can’t be overlooked, and Pera’s prowess on clay and massive forehand can’t either. Pera in 3.

Begu vs Noskova :

This is the start of a tricky section where I’m picking some underdogs. Riera was one of the best players in the qualifiers, and is one of the players likely to find a permanent spot on tour in the next year. She has good power, plays really sharp, and when she’s favored she tends to win by several games each set. Being able to blow out opponents is huge in tennis because it builds the allure and leaves you fresh for later rounds. I thought her and Begu would be competitive, but Begu basically crushed her. Begu playing well is a problem for any opponent, and Noskova struggled a bit in round one against Dart.

Noskova struggling doesn’t always carry over, because she tends to play as hard as she needs to rather than as hard as she can. I could see her best tennis dueling even with Begu, but right now Begu has demonstrated a level of offense that is a favorite against most opponents. Leaning into the upset here, as even if this goes to a third I think Noskova’s stamina will falter first. Begu in 2-3.

Azarenka vs Andreeva :

Andreeva and Azarenka both rolled in their first round. Bektas only won a few games and Podoroska only won 1. It sets up a high profile contest which is pretty standard for Andreeva these days. She’s only 17, but she’s already a tour regular. People expect her to win pretty much every simple match, and she’s pulled numerous upsets against higher ranked players. It’s great to see, and it’s great for the tour. I like her level, and most of her losses are against players with a lot of power. Azarenka doesn’t really have that, so Andreeva will be able to compete. Where I think Andreeva may suffer is in her ability to score. Azarenka moves the ball easier around the court and has had a lifetime on court to develop her shot patterns. She serves a bit bigger than Andreeva also which might be key in a long match. Working for Andreeva will be the crowd. I am fairly certain that the young player will have a lot of support if she plays well simply because it’s cool to see a tiny lil nugget battling against legendary names. This will be the first meeting between the two, and i think Azarenka is bringing a slightly higher level in. Azarenka in 2.

Stearns vs Kasatkina :

Stearns hung on against Ciric Bagaric and it was an incredible win. Ciric Bagaric is legit ready to play on tour, and hopefully she gets some good draws in the hardcourt swing so she can be ranked in the top 100 by next year’s clay swing. For now, Stearns meets Kasatkina for the fourth time in a very short period. Kasatkina beat Stearns 6-0, 6-1 in last year’s French Open. She also beat her in straights in Cinncinati, but this year in the Australian Open Stearns won a set before losing a lopsided 3rd. It feels like Stearns has an excellent game when she’s the bigger hitter, but against Kasatkina she has a hard time scoring. Kasatkina is really fast and defends well, and Stearns does throw in some errors so long points are sometimes risky for her. I think she’ll continue to improve on tour, but 33/43 winners to unforced against Bagaric is probably the tale of the tape against Kasatkina here. Kasatkina in 2-3. Stearns is definitely playing great here, but winning outright does feel unlikely given the marathon week she just had, the marathon match she just had, and Kasatkina’s dominance in the h2h.

Keys vs Sherif :

I’m going to stop questioning Madison’s run on clay and just start enjoying it. Over the last two months, her only two losses are to Iga Swiatek. She beat Collins in the finals of Strasbourg, and roasted Zarazua in round one. Sherif is playing good ball on clay but she doesn’t have the offense to hang even with Keys here. Keys in 2.

Errani vs Navarro :

Errani is a master of puzzles. Every matchup seems like a difficult one, but she finds ways to win. Playing Emma Navarro doesn’t seem like a great situation, but it’s hard to count her out after watching her break Schmiedlova over and over. Now that I’m done hyping up Errani, I have to admit that Navarro should win this in 2. She has a legit offense and defends too well for Errani to really close out.

Badosa vs Putintseva :

Boulter showed some good mettle in winning the first against Badosa, but Paula was able to hold on for a close three set victory. Next up is Yulia Putintseva, who defeated Sloane Stephens for the second time in two weeks in round one. Badosa against Putintseva is a match I think she’d be able to win, because she hits bigger and defends well. When I picture Badosa’s game though, I always picture her first big runs on tour where she was a living wall with a huge serve. That level just hasn’t been on display, and I think the level she brought against Boulter in round one loses to Putintseva most of the time. It’s really risky to just compare first round levels in analyzing tennis, but these were two fairly divergent performances. Putintseva in 2.

Uchijima vs Sabalenka :

Uchijima played great on round one, and I’m excited to see what she can manage against Sabalenka. So far, Sabalenka has been excellent in early rounds at majors and with Swiatek having to scramble against Osaka, the buzz around her has increased. Sabalenka has been training hard and playing with determination and focus on the court, and that along with her talent and huge offense makes her a bit too strong for Uchijima. Sabalenka in 2.