2024 Roland Garros Women's Singles Round One

Swiatek vs Jeanjean :

Leolia Jeanjean is one of the more unknown players on tour but she makes an impact every year. The French talent is good enough to make the main tour, but not really active enough to stay there in the rankings. She’s qualified here and could have given a challenge to most opponents, but Iga Swiatek is on another level. She won Rome easily, and there aren’t many significant challenges looming in Paris. Osaka in the second round is trouble on paper since she serves well, but the slower clay just takes away Swiatek’s weaknesses. She insists on trading power with power, so on fast hardcourt she can be rushed into errors. On clay, she has time to execute her full swing, and she moves the ball well and creates excellent angles. On hardcourt she can be outserved by the Rybakina/Sabalenka types, but not here. Osaka is likely to have trouble with Bronzetti also, so it might not look as exciting once the second round is here. Swiatek in 2.

Bronzetti vs Osaka :

Kudos to Osaka for grinding on clay in a spot where a lot of people expected her to struggle. She’s still not back to her title winning form, but bits and pieces of her game have returned. She’s hitting her inside-out backhand really well, and she’s started to find a good serving rhythm in some matches. Bronzetti will make her play a lot of tennis to get through, but I think the Italian’s serve is a bit too weak to really put Osaka away even if she earns the errors. Naomi had a good run in Rome and these are the same conditions, so she should win in 2.

Bouzas Maneiro vs Fett :

Jana Fett is playing solid, and Bouzas Maneiro is right around the level she can reach. I do think the Spaniard has a bit more power, but Fett has found good form this week and she’s a difficult baseliner to hit through. Reminds me a little bit of Cibulkova. There are a ton of matches in this draw that depend largely on who plays a few big points better, and I think this is one of them. Bouzas Maneiro in 3.

Bouzkova vs Kudermetova :

Kudermetova has beaten Bouzkova almost every time they’ve met, including a straight set clay-court win last season. The problem in thinking she’ll thrive here is that she just hasn’t won many matches this season. Bouzkova went to Bogota to get some extra matches and it worked out well for her; she lost in the finals to Osorio. There are a lot of factors in both directions here. I don’t think Kudermetova is consistent enough to win, but Bouzkova’s forehand is a bit too light to really dominate clay. Kudermetova in 3 is what I’m expecting. She’s playing terribly this season but Bouzkova has a very consistent approach to the game and if Veronika has solved it, she should do so again.

Krejcikova vs Golubic :

Krejcikova gets consideration at this event because she won it before, but it has been a long time since we’ve seen the level of tennis from her that a deep run requires. She’s just not consistent, and she’s too willing to go big in neutral rallies. If Golubic can grind away, she can have success here. The flipside of that equation is that Golubic isn’t really that active on tour, and doesn’t hit big enough to take Krejcikova’s time away. I like Krejcikova in 3 here; she should win in 2 but there’s nothing in her recent play to indicate any sense of urgency.

Potapova vs Rakhimova :

Rakhimova tends to win by extending rallies and earning errors. If you force her to create her own shots, she really has only power as an approach. These cross-court patterns are good, but Potapova hits bigger than her and can hit with more pace and more depth on both wings. She serves a bit bigger also, so this should go to her in 2 or 3 if she starts slow. Potapova has a really high % of matches won when she wins the first set, so if Rakhimova doesn’t sprint out at the beginning it’ll be a quick day.

Wang Xinyu vs Townsend :

The winners to unforced error count in this is going to look wild. Townsend can take the racquet out of anyone’s hand, and she can lose the next set in a similarly quick fashion. It’s a match where predicting the outcome won’t make me feel particularly smart, but Wang has had tough matches with Haddad Maia and Kalinskaya recently, and Rakhimova had to forfeit in Rabat. Slight edge to Wang in 3.

Tomova vs Alexandrova :

This will be a close match. Alexandrova won their last two meetings, but each were close. Alexandrova is at her worst on slow clay, and Tomova hits a very heavy forehand and is having a resurgence on tour this year. Alexandrova is likely to have the bigger offense late in the match, and the easier time holding quickly since she has a strong delivery. Tomova should win the periods when she throws in errors, but that’s not saying anything terribly intelligent. This draw is going to look wildly different after the first round, and it feels lazy to just take the favorites to win in 3. Alexandrova in 3.

Collins vs Dolehide :

Collins is playing the same tennis she always has, but her slump and inactivity have let the tour forget her. Now that she’s back, people seem to be looking for that letdown. It hasn’t come, and I don’t see a great reason for it to arrive here. Dolehide has a big offense, but she’s not fast enough to compete with Collins. Collins in 2.

Trevisan vs Danilovic :

Trevisan has put on some heroic performances at Roland Garros but she’s not always at her best. She’s sort of the Diego Schwartzan of the WTA, and when she’s on she doesn’t miss a ball. Danilovic has become one of the more consistent qualifiers at the majors and it feels like she has the power to win this one. She’s no stranger to marathon matches, and this probably will turn into one. Danilovic has the best offense on court, and she’s facing a solid defense but Martina hasn’t won a lot of matches lately. Danilovic in 2.

Vekic vs Tsurenko :

This is a rematch from Rome that Tsurenko won in 3. The same conditions, a week later, and the same players. Hard to see much changing. Someone in 3, and since it’s hard to win the runback I’d give a slight edge to Vekic.

Kostyuk vs Pigossi :

Great result for Pigossi to qualify. Her and Panna Udvardy have had some great results on clay off tour, but making it into a major is a big paycheck that can often grant a young player the financial freedom and lack of stress that’s needed for them to level up. She can drag things out with Kostyuk here, but winning seems unlikely. Kostyuk has too much power and is fairly consistent this season from the baseline. Kostyuk in 2.

Siniakova vs Galfi :

Galfi is in with a lucky loser spot, and despite Siniakova’s middling season she still moves the ball around a bit too quick for Galfi who’s still working her way back into form. Dalma has the power to win games, but not the stamina to win the match. Siniakova in 2.

Pacquet vs Shnaider :

Pacquet has an excellent serve and playing at home is a big boost, but recently Shnaider has hit another level on tour. She just won a title in Paris and beat Andreeva and Navarro along the way. This might involve a lot of games since Pacquet boasts a good offense, but Shnaider in 2-3 is fairly assured.

Krunic vs Volynets :

Volynets looks exhausting to play. She’s very composed, defends forever, and doesn’t miss much. Krunic can play at the same level but I think Volynets will outlast her as she has throughout most of her wins this year. Volynets in 3.

Masarova vs Vondrousova :

Vondrousova is one of the few players who are under the radar in this draw but have a chance to win. Masarova has big power and a promising future, but conditions are better for Vondrousova. Marketa in 2.

Gauff vs Avdeeva :

Avdeeva is the surprise of this event, but if you look through her recent history there are a ton of green Ws. She’s only 21 so making her first major is huge, and ranked at 188 it is likely she’ll make her way on tour before the end of the year. I was interested to see if she could snag someone on tour, but Gauff is probably too tough for her. The crowd will be behind her, and she’s too difficult to hit through on clay to really crash out early. I think Avdeeva can make it closer than name recognition would expect, but Gauff in 2.

Van Uytvanck vs Zidansek :

AVU is the closest thing to a servebot on the women’s tour. On clay, that doesn’t really work. Zidansek has struggled to regain her place on tour, but winning her way through qualifying signals that she’s ready to win at least this match. Zidansek in 2.

Wang Yafan vs Timofeeva :

Wang and Timofeeva are both 1-3 on clay so far, but Timofeeva hits a bit bigger and her win was of better quality (Ferro against Wang’s Zhu). Zhu is a tour level player, but she hasn’t been doing much on clay. Timofeeva also hits a bit bigger than Wang, and her game still has potential to improve over the course of the year whereas Wang sort of hit a peak in the early months. Timofeeva in 3.

Tomljanovic vs Yastremska :

Tomljanovic is a welcome sight on tour, but she’s not quite back to her old form. Yastremska has also beaten her consistently throughout their history (admittedly back in 2019), and she beat Siegemund in Rome which is a solid victory. I expect Yastremska to be more steady here. Yastremska in 2.

Samsonova vs Linette :

Both players fared well in Strasbourg, and both lost in straights to Madison Keys. Samsonova has a huge game when she’s on but she makes a lot of unforced errors. Linette tends to wind up in scrambling rallies when she’s at her best but she’s one of the best at trading in those cross-court sprinting drills. This is Samsonova’s winner vs error count basically. If she’s above 50% she’ll win. If not, it’s Linette’s day.

Anisimova vs Sramkova :

Sramkova has qualified, and has been winning her way in tour in admirable fashion over the past month or two. She’s beaten Boulter, Dart, Kenin, Tauson, and she came a tiebreaker away from beating Ostapenko. She might be getting tired, but Anisimova has been losing steadily on clay so far. Her winning would actually be a surprise. Amanda has the power and backhand to beat just about anyone but the patience and consistency haven’t been there. Sramkova in 3.

Bucsa vs Starodubtseva :

I just keep expecting qualifiers to win. Starodubtseva is an extremely clean ballstriker and she seems like she’ll get on tour in another year or so. Bucsa has a bigger game and a higher ceiling, but Staro will make her play 400 balls to win and Cristina isn’t always good about closing things out quickly. I’m expecting 3 sets here, with Bucsa the more comfortable player in the end. Bucsa in 3.

Cocciaretto vs Haddad Maia :

I’ve noticed this year the expectations for Haddad Maia are almost unfair. Her deep runs have been relatively surprising, but when she plays well my mind quickly goes to how well she stacks up against anyone on tour. She can serve well and she’s really consistent. Add in being a lefty and I start to think she should just beat the bottom half of the tour. It hasn’t been so, but in Rome and Madrid she played some decent tennis. She’s fresh here, and Cocciaretto is the exact type of player she can defeat. Cocciaretto expectations are high also since she’s such a good serve, but errors and a difficulty defending to her forehand wing seem to be holding her back from reaching that next tier. Haddad in 2.

Ostapenko vs Cristian :

Ostapenko’s Roland Garros run seems a long while ago, but she’s still capable of that level of tennis. Cristian is capable of winning this match but only if Ostapenko plays poorly. It does seem possible but I would guess that Ostapenko’s assault finds range by the end of the match and I do like her in a third. Ostapenko in 3.

Tauson vs Maria :

When she’s not retiring due to injury, Tauson plays great tennis. She has a big serve and easy power. Fatigue is her main issue, and in an early round against Tatjana Maria, it won’t be a problem. Maria’s slices are excellent, but on clay they don’t clear the court. Tauson should win in 2.

Siegemund vs Kenin :

It’s funny to see Siegemund favored here, but it makes sense. She’s been playing excellent lately and Kenin has been doing pretty much nothing. Kenin just seems to have lost the ability to play consistently, and Siegemund matches up pretty well with her so she may keep her run going. Siegemund in 2-3.

Lys vs Garcia :

Tough opener for Garcia. She has the power and serving to beat Eva Lys but the qualifier is coming in at a high level and Garcia can sometimes be a slow starter. Basically, Garcia should win, but I would not be surprised if it took 3 sets.

Fernandez vs Ponchet :

Leylah Fernandez wins enough to stay on tour but not enough to really impact the late stages of tournaments. She actually might hit bigger than Ponchet so this is a match she must win. Fernandez in 2.

Wang Xiyu vs Bai :

Two hardcourt specialists finding each other in the first round is a good thing, but Bai is a little outmatched in the hitting department here. Wang lost some of her early matches on tour to unforced errors, but she’s settled in a bit over the past season. Wang in 3.

Kalinina vs Osorio :

Osorio hasn’t been at her best in this clay swing but she’s been competitive in most matches. Kalinina looked dazed for the better part of this season but she found her game in Strasbourg and beat the likes of Vondrousova and Ferro. She should win here but it might take a long time since Osorio is such a solid baseliner. I hate to churn out such reductive analysis as “OFFENSE VS DEFENSE” but the women’s tour has an absurd amount of depth right now and a high % of the first round matches will be decided by a game or two. Kalinina in 3. Osorio can hang but she hasn’t been good about closing out.

Vickery vs Jabeur :

Vickery can be a wall, and Jabeur has a top ten offense when she’s focused. Finding that focus and digging in for the long haul have been tough for her outside the majors, but the last few months have seen her gradually inching towards form again. This and Wimbledon are the majors I still think she has a chance at, but a long match with Vickery means she won’t see the second week. Jabeur in 2 or a disinterested Jabeur in 3.

Zheng vs Cornet :

Retirement might be looming for Cornet, as the injuries she always competed with are starting to hold her back. Zheng is too solid from the baseline and too comprehensively skilled and well-drilled to lose this. Zheng in 2.

Krueger vs Korpatsch :

Krueger is racing up the rankings just by winning most first rounds on tour. Her power is serious and she reminds me of an early Samsonova/Sabalenka combo. Korpatsch has been inactive and has somehow become better on hardcourt than clay. She’s still likely to defend and earn any errors that are available but Krueger is playing at a high level now and she has enough power to wear Korpatsch down. Korpatsch also struggles a bit to score off her serve. Krueger in 2.

Zhu vs Avanesyan :

Zhu is a tremendous baseliner but she hasn’t done well on clay. I’m not sure if she’s nursing an injury or something like that, but it opens the door for Avanesyan. Elina hits well, and defends great on clay. She has serving issues but she should be more comfortable on the surface here and Zhu hasn’t been playing enough to really be sharp. Avanesyan in 2-3.

Blinkova vs Cirstea :

Another offense vs defense situation. Cirstea is playing decent and Blinkova has only won a single match in her last five. Admittedly, it was against Diane Parry who is a solid opponent, but there not a lot of reason here to think Cirstea doesn’t win in 2.

Kalinskaya vs Burel :

I thought Kalinskaya would fare well on clay but she’s struggled to win matches. Burel might actually be able to snag this one. I feel like Kalinskaya has a better serve, more power, and a better backhand and forehand. So, Burel in 2.

Andreescu vs Sorribes Tormo :

Wild! I did not expect to see Andreescu’s name in this draw. I hope she’s still good, but I would expect Tormo to piece her up since she hasn’t played at all. Tormo in 2.

Dodin vs Day :

Dodin withdrew from her last match and hasn’t been her best on clay. Kayla Day is competing at a lower level, but she’s been winning matches. This is an interesting matchup because Day looks to use height and a big forehand to outlast her opponents, and Dodin has huge power but struggles to find consistency and patience at times. Not really sure who will triumph here. Dodin could get frustrated and lose, but she’ll have a long time to find her game and Day has had some trouble with big hitters in the past. Dodin in 3.

Saville vs Paolini :

Paolini and Saville are both great defenders, but Paolini hits a bit bigger and she’s a bit faster as well. It gets confusing when I see that Saville beat Paolini on clay in 2023 in their only previous meeting. Paolini is at a different level now but this is an interesting spot. It feels like there are upsets lurking in this first round but most of them are going to paint a new picture. Paolini doesn’t love clay but she’s playing well, and Saville has been losing and just withdrew from a match. Paolini in 3.

Svitolina vs Pliskova :

Svitolina seems like she should be great on clay, but no. She hits hard enough, and covers the court well, but it seems like she gets frustrated and that causes errors. She should beat Pliskova, but oddly Pliskova can elevate to a great level on clay even though servers usually struggle. Somewhat expect them to have a close match but Svitolina has won almost every single meeting in the past, so I’d go with her again here. Svitolina in 2.

Ferro vs Parry :

: ( These two are some of the best in their weight class. Ferro has a slingshot of a forehand and a short-compact backhand that can send the ball down the line in a manner that’s impossible to read. A lot of offense though means a lot of losses. Parry on the other hand is extremely well-rounded and has the best one-hander on tour. A one-hander though means trouble returning on fast courts. French tennis creates such unique and crafty players, and it’s a shame for them to play each other.

These two played 4 times on clay in 2023. Ferro won the first two, and Parry won the following two. Ferro won in 2, then 3, then lost in 3, then lost in 2. This doesn’t mean Parry will win, but it paints a picture of a player figuring out effective strategies against an opponent. A big stage and Ferro in good form makes me think it’ll go 3. Parry in 3.

Jacquemot vs Bogdan :

Elsa Jacquemot has shown a great ability to rebound in matches, and she’ll have to here since Bogdan crushes the ball. Jacquemot actually has been winning a lot more often in the past few months than Bogdan, and there is a potential upset here. Bogdan withdrew from her last match, but before that she beat Fernandez and went 3 with Vondrousova. This is another very interesting matchup where me picking a winner feels silly. Jacquemot is a better server and keeps the ball out of her opponents strikezone well, but Bogdan hits bigger and has a metric ton of edge in the experience department. Bogdan in 3.

Pavlyuchenkova vs Udvardy :

This is a similar equation. Pavlyuchenkova has been losing a lot, but at a very high level. Losses in 3 to Kalinina and Tormo are not bad. Udvardy has won her way through qualifying and is a clay specialist, but she’s stuck at the Challenger level. Half expect this to go to a third because despite lacking the power Pavs has, Udvardy is very consistent. Pavlyuchenkova in 3.

Mertens vs Carle :

I’m a big Carle fan so it’s tough to admit she might not win here. Elyse Mertens has been one of my favorite players for a long time too so no matter what I’ll be making faces. Carle plays good clay but she lacks a bit of power and offense. That will give Mertens a slight edge in creating opportunities and finishing points, but she hasn’t been sharp for a while now. Mertens in 3, but she’ll need to play well and remain focused.

Martic vs Mladenovic :

Mladenovic might be retiring soon, and it’s nice to see her get the wildcard here. She has some of the most legendary double faults in the game, but she also was one of the best doubles players on tour for a long time. I don’t think she’s active enough to beat Martic, but it’ll be cool for her to play one more RG. Martic in 2.

Rus vs Kerber :

Very different swing productions here, but these two play similar. Both lefties have great power, but Kerber is a little bit better on defense and at creating on her serve/backhand. Kerber in 3.

Rybakina vs Minnen :

Rybakina was sick recently, so it’s good she gets half an easy match here. Minnen is a great server, but clay isn’t her best surface. Rybakina in 2.

Sakkari vs Gracheva :

Hometown crowd will help, but Sakkari is too fast and strong for Gracheva to hit through. Sakkari in 2.

Pera vs Hibino :

Pera actually has the offense to hit through Hibino, so even if she starts slow she can still win this match. Pera in 2-3.

Riera vs Begu :

Riera is scary good and Begu has a ton of power and experience. This should be a close match. Riera is faster and while she hits a bit smaller, she does have enough weight on her shots to score on Begu once the edge is off. I’m a fan, but I think she can win a deciding set based on stamina. Riera in 3.

Dart vs Noskova :

Dart isn’t great on clay and Noskova is in that second tier of title challengers. Noskova in 2.

Azarenka vs Podoroska :

Podoroska is a clay-court specialist but her backhand isn’t up to par. Azarenka started off the clay season struggling but she really played well in Rome, leading up to a reactive but competitive defeat against Collins. Azarenka should win this in 2.

Andreeva M. vs Bektas :

Bektas has a huge forehand, but Andreeva should be able to wear her down. She’s in the usual post-peak slump that a lot of junior players go through, but the tough losses only make great players compete harder, and Andreeva doesn’t seem to remained bummed from week to week. Andreeva in 3.

Stearns vs Ciric Bagaric :

Nobody really knows who Ciric Bagaric is yet, but nobody on tour is looking to play her first round. Her resume is full of Ws, and were it not for Stearns solid play this week in Rabat, she wouldn’t really be favored here. As it stands, she’s demonstrated a solid level of tennis and has won three 3-setters already, so she can be expected to outlast Bagaric’s best tennis. Still, a new prospect on tour for the first time can be really tough to deal with, and Stearns doesn’t hit big enough to shut anyone down. Stearns in 3.

Frech vs Kasatkina :

Frech won a few unexpected sets of tennis this week (vs Stephens (2-0) and Vondrousova (1-2)), and Kasatkina dropped a surprise loss to Osaka in Rome. It raises some question marks here, but Frech seems to win from the baseline and tends to play marathon matches. That’s fine with Kasatkina, and I think she’s fast enough to outlast Frech. Kasatkina in 2-3.

Keys vs Zarazua :

Madison Keys is playing great tennis on clay, much to my surprise. That spells trouble for Zarazua. Renata’s backhand is incredibly solid, but her serve is really a liability and Keys will have ample chances to tee off here. Keys in 2 if she continues her high level.

Yuan vs Sherif :

Sherif seems to have finally lived up to the clay expectations. She’s in the finals of Rabat tomorrow, and Yuan is a match you’d expect her to win at that level. Yuan has lost her last two matches to players not really at tour level. The problem is that these two played a month ago and Yuan beat Sherif in 2. I watched the match, and despite Sherif fighting hard for the win, Yuan was just the more offensively capable player the entire time. This is tricky because their games seem to be going in two different directions, but the stylistic issues are hard to overcome. Yuan in 3.

Errani vs Schmiedlova :

This match will contain at least one 7-5 set. Errani just knows how to win on clay, and Schmiedlova is very consistent and hits a heavy ball. I don’t see either player really scoring easily here, and I think Schmiedlova can outlast Errani in the end. Schmiedlova in 3.

Navarro vs Sonmez :

Big step up here for Sonmez Zeyep. I think she’s capable of winning a set but not the match. Navarro does not yet have the hang of clay, but she hits a heavy forehand and Sonmez may be a bit fatigued after playing so many qualifying matches. Navarro in 2-3.

Boulter vs Badosa :

Boulter doesn’t seem to enjoy clay, and her results haven’t really deviated from that idea. Badosa played great in the last two events, and apparently her and Tsitsipas are back together so she’s probably feeling pretty good on-court. Badosa in 2.

Putintseva vs Stephens :

Putintseva just beat Stephens in Rome, and there’s no reprieve. Stephens and Putintseva have played 7 times on tour already and the matches have gone back and forth pretty much constantly. Sloane tends to step it up at majors, but she’s lost her last four on clay. Stephens vs Putintseva requires Sloane to miss in order for her to lose so it’s hard to be confident here, but Putintseva should repeat based on their recent levels. Putintseva in 3.

Burillo Escorihuela vs Uchijima :

Great upsets for Burillo Escorihuela in her qualifying run. She’s really solid and has won behind her steady play, but Uchijima hits a little bit bigger and is in good form. Tricky to gauge the ceiling of a new tour player like Burillo, but Uchijima in 2.

Andreeva E. vs Sabalenka :

Andreeva is about as good as her younger sister on clay but Sabalenka has put in the work to move beyond these early round upset worries. She plays hard and her mechanics have gotten much more reliable. Sabalenka in 2.