2024 Roland Garros Women's Semifinals
Swiatek vs Gauff :
The #1 player against the #3 player is the best semifinal you can get, but this still feels like a lopsided match. Iga Swiatek has ascended to a level on clay that the tour hasn’t seen in quite some time, and with two of her biggest competitors out she can really let it all go in this semifinal. Paolini and Andreeva are tough outs, but they don’t pose the threat that Coco Gauff does. With three defensive baseliners left, and Swiatek in excellent form, the only real pressure is the proximity of the title. This is the classic jinx paragraph, but Swiatek hasn’t blinked since her 2nd round scare against Osaka. The situation isn’t new or overwhelming either, she has won this tournament 3 times already (2020, 2022, and 2023). Iga has been responsible for a lot of lopsided scores in the past, but now she’s starting to dish these defeats out to top tier players.
It’s not completely impossible for Gauff to win this match, but it would be one of the biggest wins of her career. Gauff has tremendous speed and agility which lets her defend better than most against Swiatek’s heavy topspin forehand. She also has the best defensive backhand on tour which means she can trade equally against Iga in cross-court rallies. Neither player has a huge edge in their service delivery, so this should be a high level contest in which Swiatek is heavily favored, but not winning by the usual blowout scorelines. Swiatek leads the h2h 10-1, has never lost a set on clay, and just beat Gauff 6-3, 6-4 in Rome a few weeks ago. Her forehand being so much bigger and more dangerous than Gauff’s makes it a good matchup for her, and since Gauff wins a good portion of her points with pressure and defending, Swiatek’s heavy topspin approach makes it safe to hit big against Gauff without too many errors.
Swiatek can get a bit impatient in big moments, but getting the scoreline to those big moments is difficult. 2/3 format tennis is a sprint, but on slow clay there are a lot of points and Swiatek didn’t exactly falter late in the match against Osaka, she elevated her level as she made her comeback. I don’t think Gauff’s game is done progressing, so these matches are very interesting. She is capable of hitting huge serves, huge forehands, and her backhand is excellent. She’s faster than most of the tour, she doesn’t get tired, and her ceiling is very high. This past week she has played some of the best tennis she has on tour, so Swiatek will have her hands full. It just feels like there aren’t as many ways for Gauff to score here, and Swiatek’s mobility means it’s tough to outlast her. Swiatek in 2 close sets.
Paolini vs Andreeva :
Sabalenka vs Rybakina was going to be a very entertaining contest between two players with incredibly similar approaches. Instead, we get a very entertaining contest between two players with incredibly similar approaches. Jasmine Paolini and Mirra Andreeva are both incredibly quick. Both defend the baseline like it is a delicious sandwich and their opponent is a highly interested caterpillar. Both are tiny, but hit the ball big for their stature and reflect power well. Neither one have the best serve, but they’re able to locate it well and use variety to stay out of trouble. This has the potential to be a 3 hour match, and their last meeting was exceptional. Paolini led the first set 5-2 in Madrid a month ago before ultimately losing in a tiebreaker. The second set was decided 6-4 as Paolini just came up short in her final service game. That experience, and the confidence and desire that both have coming into this are going to make for a tremendous semifinal, even if it’s not the one fans were looking forward to.
Paolini’s quarterfinal was the one I felt would be most competitive. Rybakina isn’t the best mover on clay, and Paolini had just played her to three sets in their last meeting. Rybakina’s highlights will make her look like she should have won, but Paolini was excellent in this match about hitting to the open court. Rybakina moves well, but once she got stretched wide to her forehand she went with height to try to get out of trouble. This is a good plan but Paolini’s footwork is very proactive on these shots and she’s able to take her forehand down the line extremely well. Her best shot is her off-forehand to the ad side, and this week there haven’t really been lapses in consistency on that wing.
Paolini won the first 6-2 and it looked like the pace of the game and the length of the rallies were uncomfortable for Elena. Late in the second, Rybakina found herself down a break again, and it brought out some of her best tennis. Rather than defensive hoping, she went big on her backhand constantly and was able to wear Paolini down. The third set was a tense affair with both players trading breaks then finding comfortable holds for the middle section. In the end, Rybakina finally found an ace, but followed it up with a few unforced errors in a row. All credit to Rybakina for going big in pressure moments. I didn’t love all of her choices, but backing yourself to make shots is how you win against top competition and Paolini did seem to be a favorite in long rallies. In any event, Paolini really earned this win and seemed as fresh at the end as she was at the beginning so she should be set for the semifinals.
Andreeva’s win was a little more puzzling. Sabalenka broke early, but seemed to be clutching at her stomach/abdomen/hip area a bit. She would later reveal that it was a stomach bug, but she was not 100% today at all. After a few games (during which Andreeva broke back), Sabalenka was gesturing to her box that she couldn’t continue. She got treatment, but it didn’t seem to alleviate the discomfort. When she swung big, it worked, but it clearly hurt her as well. The score never really got bad enough for her to withdraw, and Sabalenka ended up winning a close tiebreaker.
A set lead is great, but it felt like resetting the score to 0-0 made it obvious how long of a march was left, and Sabalenka never looked happy out there at all. Even holding her racquet up triumphantly after a point seemed like something she struggled to do, and I think the moment (QF of a major) and the crowd are the reasons she finished the match out. Andreeva had some struggles emotionally, but reset quickly. She moved the ball well, she returned serve well, and she didn’t let what was going on on the other side of the net throw her off her game. A close second set win was followed by a third set where Sabalenka only looked partially convinced she could win. After she went up a break and immediately gave it back, Sabalenka started to fade. Errors flowed, and Andreeva’s consistency won her the match.
It’s already the best result on tour that either player has had, and when you consider Paolini was fading in the ranking a few seasons ago, and Andreeva is just 17 years old, it’s unreal. In the semis, I expect Andreeva to be a little bit more stable on defense, but for Paolin to start quick. In Madrid, she jumped out to an early lead, and while she’s fresh I think her forehand is the biggest weapon on the court. Andreeva can outlast players, but she doesn’t tend to outhit them until late in the match when it’s more about footwork than pace. As far as backhands, Paolini’s is excellent but not able to go down the line as effectively as Mirra. Andreeva constantly came up with big passes and drives on the run down the line against Sabalenka, and it’ll be a reliable shot here. Paolini’s inside-out forehand is great, but on the run going cross-court, I don’t think she can really hit through the court well enough to score on Andreeva. This means Mirra can spread the ball with impunity on that wing. Andreeva mixes just enough dropshots into her game for them to work despite them not being the sharpest offerings, and I think she’ll be just a bit more clear on the task at hand in a third set.
There isn’t much to set these two apart, and their previous meeting was extremely close. Andreeva’s wins (although Sabalenka was ill) are a bit more impressive to me, and I think her backhand wins her this match in the end. I’ve really enjoyed seeing how diligent her footwork is when approaching balls where she has control, and she’s been very aware of where her opponents are. Mirra holds her swing until her opponent commits, and tends to pick the right shot. Everything is sort of coming together for her to win, but really these two are very evenly matched. Andreeva in 3.