2024 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Singles Round 4 - Sunday Matches

Swiatek vs Potapova :

Swiatek had to have been happy with her third round matchup after waking up from the nightmare that Naomi Osaka presented. She made quick work of Bouzkova, who was outmatched in every department. Bouzkova did manage to battle back in the first and make the set close, and she served surprisingly well, but she just doesn’t hit hard enough to beat Swiatek. It was one of those matches where Swiatek looks a bit impatient because she’s supplying all the offense, and it seems like when it takes 3-4 shots to get an opportunity to hit a winner, she tries to just infuse extra pace or spin instead and unforced errors appear. Trying to make the ball explode doesn’t really work, and extra force applied tends to fall short when compared to smooth technique. I watched Rune and Zverev have similar trouble today against their opponents. Players wind up pushing because they hit bigger than their opponent, but don’t want to make errors. It’s accuracy that’s missing, and it’s something for Swiatek to work on in the off-season. I would say that accuracy is the main problem with her serve as well. It has plenty of pace and spin, but the ball lands towards the center of the box way too often. Less pace, and more location will go a long way.

If it feels like I’m levying criticism today, yes. Your turn, Potapova and Wang. Potapova was down 5-0 in the first set, and won 7 games in a row. Wang has a tendency to just go big on her forehand, and she doesn’t stop when she misses. Potapova was an uphill battle, but Wang doesn’t actually need to hit clean winners to score. Her forehand is one of the biggest in the game, and once she locks into a cross-court rally she usually can win provided the ball lands inside the court. Landing the ball inside the court proved difficult, and it felt a bit like watching Struff. All the ability in the world but a sense of urgency that doesn’t really match the moment. Yes you want to stay aggressive, but the weight of shot buys you time in the rally, you don’t need to escape a rally you’re in control of.

Potapova wound up losing the second, and down a break in the third. She dug in admirably, but there were some really poor decisions late in the match. After getting to triple break point by rallying with Wang and keeping the ball deep until Wang missed, she got a simple backhand return off a serve. She went for a clean winner down the line for some reason, and then suddenly the next point mattered. She lost it, and suddenly the “oh F I had it and now it’s gone” fears rose. The game ended up at duece, and she went to tactic B : screaming on every shot. You can’t scream your opponent off the court, so this didn’t really work. In the end, Wang coughed up errors and Potapova won, but it was a match that was managed poorly by both. Potapova was very reactive to misses and makes, which is fine but wastes a bunch of energy and tends to affect your decisionmaking in a readable way. You want to maintain some mystery, and at a minimum not give your opponent any inspiration or hope to work off of while you’re out there.

Swiatek Potapova should be another safe match for Swiatek, but Potapova has good power off both wings and she hits her backhand down the line decent. Swiatek will need more than she brought against Bouzkova, and chances are this won’t be a blowout. Potapova won their last meeting 6-0 in the third on clay, but it was in 2016 at the juniors. Swiatek in 2.

Danilovic vs Vondrousova :

Olga Danilovic has made the 4th round of a major. This changes her career in a major way. Tons of points, at least $250k, and a chance to win more. It’s even sweeter I would imagine because she probably shouldn’t be there. Her match against Donna Vekic was filled with many fumbles. Both players have enough power to hit past the other. Vekic was able to hit inside out forehands to great effect. Danilovic’s pendulum swing on her backhand was able to force errors from Vekic quite often. Her forehand down the line was almost a clean winner anytime she made it. In between all that though, they missed constantly.

The first set was a 6-0 beatdown from Vekic. She played excellent, and likely should have won the second. In the third, she went up a quick break. She gave that back, but broke to serve for the match. Immediately, she threw in a handful of forced dropshots and errors. Luckily, she broke again to serve for the match at 6-5. This gave her the opportunity to come up with a few more bailout dropshots and errors. If you watch highlights, this was an incredible match. If you watched the match, you saw two players whose games were affected by the situation. Vekic forced the issue and missed anytime she got control of the scoreboard, and Danilovic went through bouts of not missing at all followed by sending every ball wide. The tiebreaker was vaguely like watching a junior match. Every miss brought a huge reaction from the player. There were constant gestures and faces made to their boxes, and it was a little difficult to watch two great players struggle to focus and execute. Vekic managed to go up again 6-2 in the tiebreaker, but froze at that point and began hitting most of her shots long. She had trouble serving first serves in for the second half of the entire third set, but she really was unable to respond defensively once Danilovic got a full swing in.

After watching Danilovic down Collins and sort of defeat Vekic, it’s hard to count her out against Vondrousova. Marketa is a clear favorite against most players on clay, but the scorelines of her matches can be hard to predict. Against Paquet she was up a set and cruising up a double break in the second, and wound up back on serve. She closed out, but Vondrousova doesn’t hit that big and mostly thrives by defending and earning errors, so Danilovic will be able to compete. They played in the BJK cup and Vondrousova won in 3, and I’m guessing slower clay will give Vondrousova more of an edge. Vekic’s lack of speed really hurt her, and I think Vondrousova being able to put extra ball consistently in play will make Danilovic’s rough patches more of an issue. The emotional and physical output of Danilovic over the last few rounds has to take a toll, and I think she’ll fall a game or two short here. Vondrousova in 3.

Gauff vs Cocciaretto :

This is an excellent draw for Gauff so far. She’s playing great players, but stylistically they’re not a lot of trouble for her. This round is another good spot. Elisabetta Cocciaretto is a good server and has nice power, but she’s not the fastest around the court and she can make some unforced errors if she’s rushed. This means Gauff’s defense and power give her a great shot to win without trouble. Cocciaretto beating Samsonova was a surprise to me, but Samsonova doesn’t have the speed that Gauff does nor the consistency. This is a criminally short analysis but Gauff in 2.

Tauson vs Jabeur :

Great champions are able to elevate their games. This round, Ons will need to elevate hers. Clara Tauson is playing some great tennis, and coming into this match hers is the higher level. Jabeur was projected to have trouble against Fernandez and she did. It was another match where I felt like a good coach could have gotten their player across the finish line. Fernandez didn’t have a great chance in the first, but Jabeur was very willing to give the second away. Fernandez was able to dig in on defense and rally with Jabeur until she made errors or gave Leylah opportunities. Rather than keep rallying and really punish Jabeur, Fernandez went for winners … and missed them all. I’m not exaggerating here, in the second set she missed almost every offensive shot she went for, and it didn’t feel like she had to go for them. Jabeur hits bigger than Fernandez, so on the court it may have felt like she needed to do a lot, but most of her points come from consistency, so Leylah’s team will want to focus on having her focus on the mental battle going on in her opponent’s head rather than trying to be a big hitter. Physically, it’s just not in the cards for her to be slinging offense. Maybe she landed those same shots in an earlier round, so going for them was fine, but awareness on court is important, and Jabeur was trying to give the set away. After winning, Jabeur celebrated a bit which left me puzzled. It’s natural to be happy when you win, but I feel a little odd about these matches sometimes. Fernandez didn’t land a first serve for the last 20 minutes, threw in a ton of errors, and tried to hit an overhand winner for some reason off a return at 5-5 in the tiebreaker. It was a nice win, but Jabeur made this match hard on herself. I might be in hater mode today and I apologize, but it feels like sometimes players tap their head or pump their fist after overcoming challenges that they themselves created.

Positives for Jabeur were the times she put one extra ball back. She has had a middling season, and seeing her dig in is great. Her racquet skill is some of the best on tour as well, so the gets aren’t just a boost, they’re downright effective. She has the ability to stretch to her forehand and put squash gets back extremely low, and to flick cross-court forehands that seem impossible from how extended her arm is. Jabeur’s depth of talent is why she is still slightly favored in this match, because again, Clara Tauson is coming in at a high level. Tauson beat Ostapenko, and followed it up by putting Kenin through the ringer. Kenin had no chance in the first, but in the second she was able to reel back a break of serve and apply some decent pressure. Frustratingly, she just wasn’t able to execute in the big moments. At 15-30 5-5, Tauson hit a lob that was going a few feet out (to the side). While running backwards, Kenin seemed unaware of where she was in the court. She tried to play it overhead and missed. It was a momentum killer, and she ended up missing the remainder of her offensive opportunities.

Throughout the match, the big difference in the two was Tauson’s ability to score quickly. When she lands first serves, or if you give her a moment to get a full swing anywhere inside the baseline, you are toast. She has the type of power that Anisimova/Collins generate on their backhand, and she has a heavy forehand. That is why I suspect Jabeur will have a tough time winning this quickly. Jabeur has the endurance and variety to frustrate Tauson, but this feels like a battle of two big offenses, and Jabeur’s is a bit less consistent at this point. I want to believe Jabeur wins in 3, but she will need to step up her game and avoid the type of letdown she had in the second against Fernandez. Tauson is several tiers above Leylah and Osorio in terms of offensive opportunities, and both those players were able to get in winning position in at least one set. I’m still going to go with Jabeur in 3. Tauson has beaten some offenses, and some defenses, but Ons is the most complete player she’s faced so it feels very much like “prove it” territory for me.

Arnaldi vs Tsitsipas :

The story in Arnaldi’s match seems to be Rublev’s temper, but don’t let that overshadow Arnaldi’s performance. For me, Rublev’s temper is partially his fault, and partially his team’s. I’m especially sensitive to this after watching the last round, but being reactive to the outcome of points is a bit of a leak. If you are easily moved by events, then you are always able to be moved. It compounds, because if you are really good at something, there is no reason to believe that minor failures will continue, or even matter. It gives your opponent motivation, it wastes your valuable reserves of adrenaline and dopamine (depending on good/bad outcomes), and it’s honestly fairly distracting for an opponent. Just generally speaking, if my opponent is smashing his head with a racquet, I don’t really want to beat him. I’m still going to, but I want to compete and win, I don’t really want to add suffering to someone else. It’s unprofessional, it’s a detriment to his game, and it puts his opponents and umpires in an uncomfortable spot. Of course, he knows this, but it should hit home in this moment that he lost this match because of his lack of composure, and lost it to a player who thrives because of his composure.

Matteo Arnaldi plays steady consistent tennis. He works hard, he constantly works on his game, and he isn’t reactive out there aside from hyping himself up. He beat Fils because of deviations in his level of play and because he made it clear he wouldn’t miss. Fils forced shots and missed because he was unwilling to do the work. He beat Rublev because despite Rublev opening the match hitting clean and crushing winners, he just stayed the course and kept competing. When Christmas disappeared, Rublev noticed, and he did not like it. The crux of the issue is, he did not accept it. If I am upset about the way things are, that is natural. If I grit against the way they are, I suffer. If I accept the way things are, I am (counterintuitively) instantly free to begin working on changing them. It doesn’t mean we celebrate errors or loss, but resetting to the present moment is a major key to winning in professional sports and tennis players in particular have a difficulty with this.

I’m not trying to dump on all these players or attack them here either. All of them are tremendous athletes and are mostly excellent ambassadors and competitors. All of these struggles are natural and we all experiences the highs and lows of competition, but Rublev wants to win and this is something he needs to work on to do that consistently. If his coaches aren’t working on this with him, they’re doing him a disservice. If they are and he isn’t buying into it, he’s doing them a disservice. Everything is fine with Rublev’s game but the holes are clear. He needs more reps at net, he needs to develop dropshots, and he needs to not smash racquets.

For now, it’s Arnaldi vs Tsitsipas. Stefanos has been excellent this event, and he opens as the favorite for a reason. Zhang played solid in round 3, but he was helpless against Tsitsipas. Stef is holding serving quickly, and the speed with which he’s finding a forehand to the open court off of players’ returns is the catalyst of this. His stamina is a major weapon in these conditions and in this format, and his serve/forehand is one of the best left in the event. If Arnaldi wants to win, the plot is simple. Isolate Tsitsipas’ backhand, and get deep in sets. In the late stages of a close set, Tsitsipas is still prone to some shanks. I really do think Arnaldi needs to win the first set to have a shot here, but had Rublev been playing Tsitsipas I think we’d be expecting a somewhat close match so there’s no real argument for Arnaldi to get blown out here. He has a complete game, and he has good discipline. He’s lanky so he might be able to return well, and he can send his backhand down the line so Tsitsipas can’t just camp in his backhand corner. Forehand to forehand though, I think Tsitsipas wins. Losses to Ruud, Jarry, Medvedev make me think that Arnaldi has a bit of a ceiling, but all those were close affairs so Tsitsipas should have his hands full here. Tsitsipas in 4-5.

Alcaraz vs Auger-Aliassume :

Shelton and FAA was fairly hyped, but only Felix delivered. Shelton wasn’t really that bad, but FAA just showed he’s more comfortable on the surface. He faced no break points, and won comfortably in straight sets. His next match will be a lot more difficult, as he plays a version of Carlos Alcaraz that is cruising through the draw without really playing his best tennis. Alcaraz vs Korda was a strange contest. It reminded me a bit of Zverev or Rune playing matches they know they’re going to win. They don’t want to play extra sets, so they play a bit more carefully and just make sure to outlast their opponent. What ends up happening is the score stays close, and the stronger players needs to win a tense tiebreaker or break late in the set. Sure, they still win, but I think that an all-out assault from an earlier moment would allow them to fatigue their opponent.

These guys are all in tremendous shape (even Kotov), but there are levels/paces that they can’t hang at for long. Someone like Alcaraz can push the pace and wear Korda down, and once he breaks from that level, the odds of him winning the next sets easily are more likely. We watched Nadal and Djokovic do this to opponents for a long time, and the late sets were almost always blowouts after frantic openers. We watched Federer do the same thing mentally to opponents with a constant onslaught of offensive shots and tricky slices. If you don’t push the pace to a level your lower-tier opponent can’t hang at, they end up playing at a pace they’re comfortable with and then you play the same level of Korda in set 1 as you do in set 3.

Hater mode continues, but in this case I think it’s all assuming that Alcaraz is totally healthy. If he’s saving his arm for later, he played Korda perfectly. Sebastian continues to battle even with the best players on tour, and in the big moments he doesn’t change his game. 4-4 in a tiebreaker isn’t the time to force anything, but if you’re the underdog and have nothing to lose, it might be a good choice to ratchet up the pace a little, or take some chances. Instead, he seems to throw in rally ball errors. The two forehand misses he had in the tiebreaker were rough, but worse was that they weren’t even shots that were going to score. He was just guiding the ball in straight over the net. I guess in the end, beating Alcaraz, or even playing him even for a time, is a huge ask. It was a great match.

FAA will have his best chance to beat Alcaraz here. Alcaraz’s arm is potentially not 100%, and Korda probably should have won a set. I think the pace alone that Felix brings will wake Carlitos up a bit, and he has beaten FAA the last few times they’ve played so he’ll know which shots to employ and when. Even with his arm a question mark, Alcaraz’s speed around the court and ability to extend rallies are the right assets to score on FAA. Auger-Aliassime’s main issue on tour is that he can overhit forehands and cough up unforced errors. It should be noted also that FAA Shelton was played under a closed roof, which helps Felix’s serve a bit. The weather in Paris looks pretty nice for the rest of the tournament, so it’ll be warm and ideal for Alcaraz to wear him down and isolate his backhand when he can. FAA is good enough to compete at this level, but hasn’t been doing it regularly enough for me to think he can do so here for 3 whole sets. Alcaraz in 4.

Hurkacz vs Dimitrov :

Dimitrov leads this h2h 5-0. All the matches have been close, but you don’t get to 5-0 against Hurkacz unless you can reliably return serve. If you can reliably return serve, you can beat Hurkacz, and on clay it should be even more beneficial. Hurkacz has played excellent in this clay swing considering his status as a servebot, and leading into Wimbledon and the North American swing I think his baseline improves have him primed for some titles. He had a hard test with Shapovalov in round 3, and the new and sort of decent Shapovalov put up a good fight. Dimitrov had an easier time with Zizou Bergs, despite dropping a set. Bergs broke Dimitrov a bunch in this match, but Dimitrov’s slice gave him a lot of trouble. Grigor was content to just keep hitting the court, and it was enough in the end. Bergs had trouble lifting his forehand inside in off of the slice, and it meant going mostly inside out which Dimitrov was only too comfortable with. The quick turnaround is a concern here, but I don’t think the Bergs match was as labor intensive as it could have been. There were numerous rain delays, and the scores were close but only because Dimitrov didn’t redline. He served with control, he hit to big targets, and he secured the bag.

I don’t think Hurkacz gets beaten quickly here, and I don’t think Dimitrov is automatic just because of the h2h. He should win, but Dimitrov lost to Rune/Mensik/Fritz recently and those are all players right around Hurkacz level. If this goes to a 5th, I’d be pretty worried for Dimitrov’s chances. Picking Dimitrov in 4 feels tough, because Bergs got to a 4th and he wasn’t really playing his best today. The h2h is hard to ignore, so I’ll go with Dimitrov in 5. The quick turnaround might leave him tired but he should be able to outduel Hurkacz in most volleys and the low slices will be tough for the big dude to get down on.

Sinner vs Moutet :

Nothing like a seemingly simple one to end a full day of criticizing professional athletes for not being perfect <3. Moutet has been the most entertaining player in this event. He has won and lost lopsided sets, he has gone for every shot possible, he is chatting with the crowd, and he is giving the home country something to believe in. Considering he couldn’t even hit a two-handed backhand for a good chunk of the past year due to wrist surgery, it’s pretty impressive for him to get his game back to a really high level. Ofner was beating him early in the third round, but he was also sweating profusely. The workload of defending against Moutet’s big forehand strokes and his clever dropshots is exhausting, and Ofner’s game dipped as the match went on. It’ll be fun to see Sinner trading with Moutet, and it’ll be another look at his physical ability to see how quickly he moves to the frontcourt and how he defends Moutet’s forehand inside out. Generally with a hip injury, it’s sprinting forward and leaning wide to that side that becomes an issue.

Sinner has sort of entered a big however many group in terms of his results. He is able to beat the lower tier players for the entire match, and is consistently able to do so. There are no holes in his game, and aside from his hip issue there is no reason to think he loses here. Moutet has the game to make this the match of the day, but it feels like he’s spent a lot more time and energy on court and that’ll cost him. Sinner in 3.