2024 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Singles Round 4 - Monday Matches

Djokovic vs Cerundolo :

“Got your nose!” says Djokovic, and we panic. “Just kidding,” he announces a few rounds later. This pattern is constant and enjoyable. Approaching a major, we are all sure Novak is going to have trouble. He looks rough in round one, and then the moment he faces real trouble he just elevates to a level slightly above his opponent and the game is over. For a guy whose big question mark is “is he getting old”, he certainly beats a lot of younger players in the stamina department. Lorenzo Musetti was up 2 sets to 1, and from there he never looked like he had a chance. Djokovic began isolating Musetti’s backhand and the match was over. Lorenzo has a nice slice, but it gives Djokovic control. Musetti has good power, but it’s more of an occasional infusion than a constant thing, and he basically played the last 3 sets at Djokovic’s preferred pace. This is a big problem against Novak because is more accurate than Musetti, so he’s picking his spots and probing Musetti’s defense while Musetti is trying to keep the ball in with depth. There are just too many established patterns that Djokovic can score with once the ball slows down, and in the end Musetti probably needed to play more aggressive with the lead to have a chance at winning.

Cerundolo and Paul looked like a blowout in the first set. Tommy Paul was hitting bigger and aside from some break points in the final game, it was smooth sailing. He went up a quick break in the second, and from there Cerundolo took over. This matchup seems to be dictated by whoever is hitting bigger on their forehand, and Cerundolo wore Paul down as the match progressed. It sets up another tricky match for Djokovic, but given the level he found against Musetti, he should be fine. Djokovic doubled over after long points, but it looked more like the Monfils’ reaction after a long point (playing it up for the crowd). He may have been out of breath, but his level didn’t dip and that’s what’s important. Cerundolo is hitting crisp and if he had played Novak last round, there would have been question marks. I think he plays at too uniform of a pace though and Djokovic’s defense is good enough to frustrate him into errors. Only a huge physical letdown or the performance of a lifetime will get Cerundolo through here, but I think it’ll be very entertaining tennis because Francisco has no pressure here and is hitting his forehand well. Djokovic in 3-4.

Ruud vs Fritz :

Taylor Fritz is a real threat here, but Casper Ruud has almost uniformly navigated these lower tier challengers at the majors. He’s more durable, and hit forehand is the biggest weapon on the court. It gets tricky because Fritz has been winning so many matches recently, and Ruud has been suffering some uncharacteristic losses (mostly on hardcourt). Fritz’s serve and forehand will get him at least a set here, and possibly two. Ruud wore down Etcheverry nicely, but Tomas has been making a lot of unfortunate errors lately and missing rally balls is a surefire way to lose to Ruud. Fritz is more consistent right now, and has a bit more variety in his game than Etcheverry. I think this match will be decided by their experience. Ruud knows exactly what his game looks like in a long battle, and Fritz has to think a bit out there. He has more ways to score, but Ruud doesn’t give you a lot to work with and he defends incredibly well. Ruud in 4-5.

Rune vs Zverev :

Rune against Kovalik was really fun, but I had a hard time watching it. Despite winning in 3 sets, Rune fell into that pushy style of play. It let Kovalik dictate and he really is playing good tennis with time and control. Kovalik’s inside out backhand was very frustrating for Holger and he almost won the 1st and 3rd sets. In the third set, it felt like Rune just went huge anytime he got moved out of position. That’s fine, but he was missing by a lot. The transition between ultra safe and ultra aggressive tennis is something he hasn’t mastered yet. I really would prefer him to just focus on his technique more and location less. He hits very clean and it’s hard to create against him when he’s doing that. When he tries to go into lockdown mode he mostly just shifts deeper in the court and then gets outplayed. It’ll be good practice in the long run for him to develop that, but right now he’s letting weaker players hang around.

Zverev basically lost to Griekspoor, but finds himself in the next round. He was so passive in giant portions of this match, and it was the same old trouble for Zverev. He knows he’s supposed to win, so he’s scared to lose. The big issue I saw for Zverev was that he doesn’t hit his forehand cross-court when he loses confidence on court. He mostly just guides it in down the line, and that let Griekspoor safely take huge rips cross-court over and over with his backhand. It’s one of the shots tennis players drill more than any other. If you’re standing in the center of the court, sure there’s pressure. When players are running and just have to find that half of the court, they rarely miss. Zverev’s defense and serving is good enough that eventually he got back in the match, but a single unforced error or Griekspoor make in the opposite direction and he’d have lost the match. He was down 4-1 in the third, and Griekspoor really was the better player.

Rune beat Zverev in straights in Munich in 2022, and he’s expected to do well here. Neither were at their best in the previous match, and I expect them both to play differently here. There are some expectations, but the win is not as necessary as it was in the previous round (vs Kovalik and Griekspoor). I like Rune’s aggression and speed in this one, but I think Zverev’s serving will be more reliable in big moments. Rune had a real hard time landing serves against Kovalik, and double faulted 4 times late in set 3. Zverev’s length and backhand mean he’ll put a lot of serves in play, so I think Rune will have a fairly difficult time scoring. When he’s fresh and hyped for the match, it should be even. When he sprays errors, it’ll get tough because Zverev (despite pushing quite often) does hit the court a lot and it’s hard to score on him if you’re missing. Zverev in 4.

De Minaur vs Medvedev :

This is probably the closest contest of this round. De Minaur was projected to lose to Struff, and he managed to win anyway. Early in the match Struff was winning the rallies, but it was the type of rallies that were a concern. Scrambling 10+ shot rallies are not Struff’s thing, and while he can win them for a whole set, remaining consistent for a whole match when you play as aggressive as him is a big ask. Eventually, he wore down, and once you start to bail out of rallies early against De Minaur you are sunk. Alex pushes the pace as good as anyone even on clay, and he was pretty clutch in the end when Struff threatened to break back in the 4th.

Medvedev played Machac, and was able to win. Machac (to me at least) represents the same level of competitor as De Minaur. He’s a bit more powerful, but a bit less consistent. Since he’s solid from the baseline, and has played Medvedev a bunch, this match should be really high level. Neither one can really hit through the other, so stamina and patience will play a factor. I think Medvedev wins most of these baseliner battles by having a better serve and more ability to score at net with dropshots and his reach. I don’t see a way for either player to win quick, but I like Medvedev’s chances of hanging on and exposing De Minaur’s slightly weaker backhand. Medvedev in 5.

Avanesyan vs Paolini :

It’s pretty cool watching Avanesyan dismantle people. Zheng was dominant when she was fresh, but once the edge was off, she couldn’t escape rallies. Avanesyan got her into extended moonball rallies, and Elina Avanesyan simply does not miss once she gets into a rhythm. Zheng let herself get moved off the baseline, and once she did Avanesyan was the one dictating and going for more offensive attempts.

At the end of the third Zheng rushed a few moonballs, but the swinging volleys were a bit shaky and Avanesyan was the fresher player. She was able to pick Zheng off at net, and the third set tiebreak was a tense affair that saw Zheng going big and missing. I had the total # of moonballs set at 20 for the tiebreak, and they passed that about 5 points in. It was fun, but tense tennis. Avanesyan now plays someone who is willing to rally with her for the entire day. Jasmine Paolini has a huge forehand for her stature, and that should be a key here. Zheng ran out of gas on the aggression, and Avanesyan was able to squeak by. Paolini’s game won’t really dip in the same way, and she’s more than capable of playing long rallies. I think this is very similar to ADM vs Medvedev in that neither player can really hit through the other, but Paolini hits slightly bigger and can serve a bit more effectively. Expecting another long battle for Avanesyan, but for Paolini to be able to get on the front foot due to her experience against solid baseliners. Paolini in 3.

Rybakina vs Svitolina :

Watching Rybakina highlights is one of my favorite relaxing hobbies. She hits with such ease and plays with such a relaxed demeanor. Elena isn’t known as a clay specialist, but she had very little trouble getting through Mertens and that was good prep for the challenge here. Svitolina had a rough start to the clay season, but her game is together now. Last round she was in a tough battle in the first against Ana Bogdan, but once she got the first she ran away with the second (7-5, 6-2). She’s the ideal defender to show us whether Rybakina is a real contender for this title (I know saying that is crazy since Swiatek just zipped Potapova), and I expect this to be close. Similar to a lot of matches, the player who can score easily on their serve tends to have a big edge at the end of a close match. Svitolina’s serving just isn’t as good as Rybakina’s, and she hits big but not as big as Rybakina. This feels like a big sister little sister matchup, and I think Rybakina will eventually get by. Since Svitolina is a bit more comfortable on clay, I think she’ll get this to a third, but Rybakina’s composure means even if it gets deep, she’ll still play solid. Rybakina in 3.

Andreeva vs Gracheva :

I was wrong about Begu beating Gracheva, but that’s completely okay with me. Any time someone plays as well as Gracheva I’m happy to see them win, and she came up with creative shot after creative winner in her third round clash. Gracheva takes the ball early, has a lot of spin on her forehand, and her backhand is hard to read. Most people will expect her to go down against Andreeva here, but I’m not so sure. The one thing that Andreeva has struggled with so far on tour is her opponent hitting bigger than her. Power and pace can give her a little trouble, and while this gap in ballstriking gets narrowed every season, Gracheva will still have a chance if she can stay on the front foot.

The backhand rallies will be problematic for Gracheva here. Andreeva is willing to battle cross all day and Varvara’s backhand is very flat so it’s easier for Mirra to hit hard in those exchanges without making errors. In the end, Andreeva has demonstrated a really high level here in beating Stearns and Azarenka, and her run should continue. Gracheva has already exceeded expectations here, and this would probably be the best win she’s had in several seasons. Andreeva in 2 close sets.

Sabalenka vs Navarro :

Badosa was up an early break against Sabalenka and it seemed like she was turning back the clock, but the world #2 just kept up the aggression until she broke back. From there, it was the Aryna show and she didn’t disappoint the crowd. Sabalenka serves huge, but her groundstrokes have become much more consistent and she’s fairly unplayable as a result. This matchup with Navarro is one I expect her to win, but I thought Keys would beat Navarro also. Emma Navarro’s rise to the top of the tour is remarkable, and she still flies somewhat under the radar. Keys was on a great streak, but Navarro battled well and Keys seemed to suffer a right leg issue in the second half of the match. She got some treatment, but Navarro held on.

Sabalenka will be wary of her opponent here. She lost to Navarro in three in Indian Wells, and beating Keys in good form means Navarro is defending well. Pretty boring writeup overall here, as I’m just picking the favorite in every match. There will be an upset tomorrow, but on paper and based off previous levels in matches, all the favorites should win here. Swiatek is really the only player that I see beating Sabalenka in this event, but Navarro’s ceiling is still being raised so it’s exciting to see her in these high profile matchups. Tennis-wise, I expect some long rallies. Navarro is quick and reflects power well. Her forehand is light and quick so she can trade well on the run, and her backhand is the slightly less reliable wing but she spreads it well cross-court and down the line so she may expose Sabalenka’s movement a little. I just think she comes up a little short in the serving department so I expect Sabalenka to win in two close sets.