2024 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Singles Round 3 - Saturday Matches

WTA Singles

Zheng vs Avanesyan :

Zheng has finally run into a tough opponent, but she’s projected to roll here anyway. Avanesyan and Blinkova seemed like the classic extended baseline battle but Avanesyan was dominant from the start and finished strong, winning 6-0 in the second. Zheng had a pretty match against Tamara Korpatsch, and she didn’t play her best but won comfortably.

Avanesyan is a really solid defender of the baseline and he has good speed. When she’s playing well (which she is), the hallmark of her game is extending rallies without missing. So the issue here is, Zheng has really good power and hits clean, but she can get into patches of a game or two where she makes a lot of errors. I would expect some momentum swings as a result, with Zheng holding on purely because she has such an effective serve. Her best deliveries are out wide and on clay that’s the optimal way to serve. She’s fresh, she has more experience, she has bigger power on both wings, and her opponents main hope is that she makes unforced errors. It’s a big ask for Avanesyan, but I don’t think this could ever be a blowout as well as she’s playing and as well as she’s played at this event in the past (4th round in 2022). Zheng in 3.

Andreescu vs Paolini :

Andreescu has wasted no time in returning to fine form on tour. After a surprise win against Sorribes Tormo, she managed to come from behind and outlast Anna Kalinskaya. It sets up a sort of combination of her first two opponents, as she now runs into Jasmine Paolini. Paolini has all the defensive ability of Tormo and the solid groundstrokes and ball movement of Kalinskaya. She’s having an absurdly good year, and has won almost all the matches where she’s been favored.

Paolini isn’t an automatic win here because Andreescu’s ceiling is undefined at this point. Her best game is good enough to beat Paolini, and in a comeback players tend to improve with each match. The level she played against Kalinskaya will probably get her outlasted here. Kalinskaya is really not at her best on clay and Paolini is very comfortable on the surface. I expect her to keep Andreescu moving and despite being outmatched, she’ll know that making this into an endurance contest can get her the match. Paolini in 2.

Svitolina vs Bogdan :

Bogdan got her first win against Pavlyuchenkova and Anastasia did not look too happy about it at the handshake. Bogdan played well, served well, and she has a 3 set win against Svitolina this year at the BJK Cup to give her a little confidence. RG of course, carries more weight for players than a team comp, but it’s good to get that first meeting out of the way so you are able to read shot patterns quicker and return serve a little better.

Svitolina had just a bit too much consistency for Diane Parry in their match. The ball kept coming back and Parry would eventually miss. That is really what I expect from the Bogdan matchup as well. Ana is playing good ball but hitting past Pavlyuchenkova is a lot easier than doing the same to Svitolina. Svitolina is playing solid, navigated two good players already in this draw, and she hits just as big as Bogdan. Given Bogdan’s level coming in, it might take some time for Svitolina to take the edge off. Svitolina in 3.

Rybakina vs Mertens :

Return of the Mert. Elyse Mertens and winning matches she’s supposed to win have been a steady combo on tour, but so far this year she hasn’t been that automatic. She got back on track with a good win against Petra Martic, and now she is punished for her wonderful play by facing one of the best players on tour. Rybakina won their last meeting in Brisbane convincingly, and though slow clay will give Mertens a better chance, she hasn’t really pulled this level of upset recently. Rybakina hits bigger constantly, and her serve can bail her out of trouble. Rybakina in 2.

Gracheva vs Begu :

Varvara Gracheva played excellent in round one to beat Maria Sakkari and she continued to hold that level in besting Bernarda Pera in a quick 2 sets. Her game oddly reminds me a bit of a mini-Federer when she’s on, not so much in the execution of shots but in the smooth transition to the next offensive opportunity. If she’s playing well and has control of the rally, it is exhausting to play her. Whether she can find those opportunities against Begu is a tough question.

I watched a lot of Begu vs Noskova, and Begu hit big and served decent, but what I liked most about her game is how she constantly kept the ball out of Noskova’s strikezone. Begu hit moonballs off both wings any time she was dragged wide, and Linda was letting them bounce up and drive her deep. It isn’t easy to just step in and hit balls on the rise, but your opponent is hitting moonballs to buy themselves time, so moving forward and taking tie away is exactly what you want to do. Begu is a step slow covering the court side to side, so Gracheva’s team will hopefully have told her to cut off the height early and often. Sure you’ll miss some, but when you know you’ll be given 20-30 opportunities to deal with that shot, it’s worth the risk to get in a good rhythm and force your opponent also to think about location on those defensive shots.

Gracheva is the hot hand here, and Sakkari is a better win that Begu. I still think I like Irina here. She hits big and constantly so off both wings, and she’ll have a slight edge on serve against Gracheva. This is shaping up to be a strange but excellent day of tennis. Begu in 3.

Andreeva vs Stearns :

Azarenka Andreeva lived up to the hype, and this match should be just as good. Stearns had never beaten Kasatkina before, but she kept her level high throughout and was able to beat her. Stearns has really good variety from the baseline and she looks to play offense on every shot. I would say she has a better chance than Azarenka to score on Andreeva, but her trouble with Kasatkina makes me think this is the end of the road. Andreeva is at least as solid defensively as Kasatkina on clay, and she hits the ball harder. It feels like a close match when you compare the two levels, but after a title run and a few rounds the question of how much tennis Stearns has left in her starts to be raised. I just think Mirra can defend here and that her approach is more straightforward. Andreeva in 3.

Keys vs Navarro :

Navarro is improving, but isn’t wholly comfortable on clay yet. She has the power and skill to score, but it doesn’t feel like her decisions are clear at times. Overall, she can beat players like Errani all day just on youth and ability, but against someone who’s thriving on the surface right now like Keys it feels like and uphill battle. For a long time, I’ve doubted Keys in matches because she’s only really good for a few weeks each year. She takes huge swings at the ball, and she can lose length at times. When that happens, she’ll lose 4-5 matches in a row. When she’s on though, it feels like she can beat anyone because of the offensive pressure that she applies.

In the last round Keys zipped Sherif, but then needed a tiebreaker to get through. It didn’t really seem like fatigue more than it did a letdown in focus. Sherif made sure to drag the match out as much as possible, and Keys sort of let up and had a tough time turning things back on. In this match, I like Navarro in the future but Keys today. Maybe Madison runs out of steam in this round, and maybe Sherif’s tiebreaker set was the beginning of the end. It feels like something will have to change about their respective levels for Navarro to get through here. Keys in 2-3.

Sabalenka vs Badosa :

THE BADOSA! Paula Badosa is back playing good tennis, and it’s very welcome. Given the scrappy wins she’s had so far, I don’t think she’s ready to challenge Sabalenka. Given Swiatek’s occasional troubles, the projected final of this event might be closer than people think. Sabalenka wins on consistency here. Sabalenka in 2.

ATP Singles

Djokovic vs Musetti :

Here it is. The moment we’ve all been waiting for. Is Novak Djokovic a legit title contender at this event or is he still in some slump? Or is it both? The last round against RCB he looked like himself again, but the style of his opponent doesn’t present any trouble for Djokovic. Here he’ll have a real test, so we’ll get a look at his actual level.

Musetti was down an early break against Monfils, but cruised from there. His ability to defend on clay is excellent. His power is legitimate. His serve is solid. His backhand is one of the best one-handers on tour. The kid is excellent, and he’ll have some unfinished business in his mind against Djokovic, since their 2021 clash featured Musetti up 2 sets before ultimately having to withdraw due to exhaustion.

Novak beat Lorenzo in straight sets (7-5, 6-3) in Monte Carlo this year, and that’s a tournament where he’s usually not expected to put forth his best effort. The workload to win MC is intensive, so Djokovic is usually just looking to get a few matches in. The first round version of Djokovic could lose to Musetti easily. The second round could beat him and should be favored by a set I would guess. The two-hander vs one-hander has been a matchup that the good two-handers have dominated. Musetti is a bit more passive than you want to be against Djokovic, and he hangs a little deep in the court which can make it tough to score on Novak. Djokovic’s rust in big matches will be on display, so I don’t think there’s any way this is smooth sailing, but he should win. I have him losing to Zverev later on, but this feels like a challenge he should overcome and the perfect wakeup call for us to get a look at his commitment and focus at this tournament. Djokovic in 4.

Cerundolo vs Paul :

Tommy Paul crushed Fognini. Cerundolo beat Misolic in straight sets. Prior to Paul roasting his opponents I had him losing to Cerundolo here, but I saw some of the early season “wtf” attitude from Ceru in the second set of his last match. Misolic is a solid player and he hits hard, but Cerundolo entered the match in great form. He was cruising, but once the match got tight he started forcing shots again. It’s like he doesn’t recognize that the pressure moments are pressure on his opponent since he hits so solid and is always looking for forehands. If he sprays unforced errors and wastes break points against Paul, he’ll lose. There’s no fun way to say it, this is a mental test for Cerundolo.

These two just played in Madrid, and Cerundolo won in 3. Most of their previous matches have gone to a deciding set, and that’s a strong possibility here. Cerundolo is hitting clean and playing like himself again, but Paul is a former junior RG champion and is coming in in solid form. Both are doing most of the work with their forehand, and I don’t really see a big difference between them other than Cerundolo having dropshots, and Paul being more composed. In the end, I’m always willing to go with the guy who fights til the end rather than the reactive one. Paul in 5.

Fritz vs Kokkinakis :

Idk how Kokkinakis managed to turn that match around or get to the third round of RG, but good for him. He played hard and he earned the win. It sets up a match he won’t hate his chances in, but it still should be the end of the road. I’m interested to see how Fritz deals with Thanasi’s power. He’s hitting really heavy right now, and Fritz has a very Western forehand so it could give him a little trouble manufacturing depth. They aren’t bad players, but Fritz’s last few losses on clay (Rublev, Zverev, Michelsen) all hit the ball hard as their main approach so this might take more than 3 sets. Lajovic fared well but he’s excellent on clay. Kokkinakis should get a look at winning a set, but more than that seems unlikely because Fritz is a better server, and despite the surface this feels like a serving battle. Fritz in 4.

Etcheverry vs Ruud :

Pretty crazy but relatable forfeit for Rinderknech. He was up 2 sets to 1 against Etcheverry when he got mad after a point and kicked an advertisement banner. The banner was a little more solid than his foot, and he ended up injuring himself and having to forfeit. As a fan, it’s an eyeroller. As a friend, I think you drive him to the hospital, but roast him in the groupchat. I know his DMs on instagram right now are full of complaints, but sometimes it takes something like this for you to learn a valuable lesson and finally calm down.

It sets up a tougher match for Ruud I think. Rinderknech seemed like he had a good chance at winning, and Ruud can run him around and win in 3-4. Against Etcheverry, the rallies will be longer and Ruud’s backhand will have a heavier workload. He’s just come off a 5-set thriller against ADF, so I’m not expecting him to win in straights. Etcheverry is the type of players who wears you down over a long match, so I think Ruud will get the first set here, and ultimately hold on for the win. Yes, Etch hits big enough to break down Ruud, but I think when Ruud finally starts making errors, it’ll be trying to make sure he keeps the ball in play because he’s at the end of a set and he has the match nearly done. Casper seems to reset well, and Etcheverry hasn’t been at his best. Ruud in 4.

Zverev vs Griekspoor :

Zverev, or zverbb as my autocorrect has begun referring to him, is cruising through this draw. This will be a tough one for him, because Griekspoor matches up well against big servers for some reason. He’s had some classic clashes against Hurkacz, and his server is effective. Griekspoor doesn’t hit the biggest on tour, but rumors of an arm issue can be somewhat dispelled after watching him dispatch Darderi. He’s wearing a sleeve on his right arm, but he’s also putting a lot of pace on his forehand. Tallon is solid enough from the baseline to rally with Zverev, and Zverev’s shot selection is conservative enough that he’ll have a hard time ending rallies. Where this match shifts for me is at the finish line. If Griekspoor is up a break, Zverev I think will always be able to dig in and get a look at retrieving it. The opposite just isn’t true due to Zverev’s greatly improved serve. Zverev finally drops a set I think, or winds up in a tiebreaker. Zverev in 3-4.

Kovalik vs Rune :

I actually thought Flashscore had glitched when I saw Kovalik had won in 5. Flashscore if you’re reading this, send me free stuff. Flashes, or scores. Whatever you got is fine. Don’t “we don’t actually sell those, we’re an app” me like those goofs at Sofascore. Thanks in advance. Anyway, somehow Kovalik won. It’s probably the best result of his career, and it’s coming after his career is over. I love it. Up next is a classy affair against Holger Rune, who honestly won a great match whether he realizes it or not. Flavio Cobolli is a machine. He pushes the pace constantly, and pretty much everyone he’s faced cracks eventually. Rune was playing excellent in this match, and he still barely squeaked by in a fifth. I love an early scare for a big seed because it wakes them up, elevates their level, and it also lets them play freely if they do happen to escape. I think Rune is too good here, but watching Kovalik work points with his slingshot forehand will be a lot of fun. Rune in 3.

De Minaur vs Struff :

I like the upset here but I think it’s close. ADM has made great improvements to his game on clay, and he just beat Munar in straights which is a solid win. He’s always had a bit of trouble with powerful hitters, and Struff fits that bill. Struff has won 2 of their 5 meetings, including a straight set win on clay in Monte Carlo last year. He serves bigger on the surface, the pace of the court gives him time to find forehands, and he’s excellent at net. It’s so weird to be saying this about a guy who was the most inconsistent player on tour besides Benoit Paire at one point, but he’s playing great here and beating Burruchaga and Bublik in straight sets is an excellent resume.

Alex can extend rallies and move Struff to earn errors, and his usual strategy to isolate the backhand will be effective here. That being said, it’s just not the best conditions for him, so Struff should have a lot more looks at breaking serve over the course of a long match. Struff in 4-5.

Machac vs Medvedev :

Ok. Finally. Five and a half hours of court-time after we speculated Machac might gas out, he finally did. Navone made him work 1 extra shot per point to score, and it paid off. Then, after winning two sets in a row to set up a fifth, Machac still won. The kid’s forehand is incredible, and despite fatigue his conditioning has held up. His thighs are cartoonishly large, and I don’t know why I’m pointing that out but I know you’ve seen it too.

While Machac was grinding through a 3.5 hour war, Medvedev got a forfeit. Machac has the game to hit past Medvedev on this surface, but I think Daniil is a bit more varied in his approach than Navone, and his reach means that he won’t have to do the same running. If Machac was playing this first round, I’d like his chances, but here too much is working in Medvedev’s favor. Extra rest, extra wear and tear on his opponent, Machac having gone on a deep run the week before, etc. Medvedev in 4-5. I don’t know when Machac will tire in this one, but Medvedev is always looking to outlast the powerful offenses and he will know exactly how to navigate once he sees Machac begin to make errors. I also think he’ll isolate the backhand rallies and while Navone has an excellent backhand, he offers pace and spin whereas Daniil gives you nothing to work with. It’s an easier ball to hit, but you have to supply your own pace which can be fatiguing both mentally and physically.