2024 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Singles Round 3 - Friday Matches

Rublev vs Arnaldi :

Rublev was pretty dominant against Pedro Martinez. Martinez was able to capitalize off of Rublev’s backhand errors occasionally, but he couldn’t get control of rallies. Rublev just hit bigger and trying to outlast him doesn’t really work. He’s very good when he doesn’t have to sprint, and Martinez doesn’t really have the power to redirect Rublev’s pace in a meaningful way. Even on his forehand he was mostly just guiding the ball back to Andrey’s backhand.

This next round is a lot tougher, as Rublev is playing someone who’s going to be able to trade with him from the baseline. We all saw how much success Cobolli was able to have by working hard against a more offensive talent, and Arnaldi Rublev will be a similar situation. Matteo Arnaldi beat Muller in straight sets, and it’s going to take a lot to hit through him. He defends extremely well to his backhand wing, and is able to redirect down the line extremely well. Rublev’s inside out forehand is his best weapon, and it will be neutralized for at least some portion of this match. Rublev has good serving stats, but on clay Arnaldi should be able to return most of them. I actually like Arnaldi’s spot serving a bit better because location is huge on dirt.

In a 2/3 format I could see Arnaldi winning here, but Arnaldi lost to Jarry in Rome and Rublev represents a similar big hitter. Rublev has shown this week that he’s not untouchable, but his level hasn’t really dropped during the match. Arnaldi is as good as Rublev, but Rublev is hitting bigger on every shot. Over the course of a long match, that can be a big factor. If I have to move the ball around and you can just rip and get the benefit of rushing my swings and making me sprint, you’re more likely to get unforced errors and more likely to have a simpler time playing big points. Expecting a classic here. Rublev is “supposed” to win but Arnaldi always competes and he has taken sets off several top ten players already this year (Alcaraz, Medvedev, and he actually beat Fritz). Rublev in 4-5.

Zhang vs Tsitsipas :

Zhizhen Zhang was able to pull away in his second round match, and Sonego failed to keep the ball deep enough to bother the Chinese #1. When Zhang is hitting the ball from behind the baseline, he’s a pretty good player. When he’s moving forward as he hits, he’s pretty unplayable. He has a big enough forehand to really bother Tsitsipas’ backhand here, but I think his proclivity for going inside in are going to hurt him. Stefanos defends to his forehand wing better than anyone on tour, and he’s in sharp form right now so we can’t expect his backhand to just implode. Altmaier stepped up his game and challenged Tsitsipas at times, but the Greek talent’s best attribute at RG is his stamina. He’s able to hit the ball big and keep his feet moving for 4-5 hours straight, and that means that players have to elevate to the same level and generally only can for a set or two at a time.

Zhang’s offense is strong enough that Tsitsipas won’t roll through this one easily, but it feels like Tsitsipas’ level will remain high for longer portions of the match and Zhang’s backhand can lose the plot a little. Tsitsipas in 4.

Shelton vs Auger-Aliassime :

This is a tough one to predict. They’ve never played before, and have both gotten fairly easy draws to get to this point. FAA played Squire who is a good talent but not really a threat yet. Shelton played Nishikori who was pretty competitive but had to retire due to a shoulder injury. Shelton has developed a bit of Shapo’s tendency to go big on forehands from spots where he doesn’t need to. He has tremendous power, but you don’t really create winners from bad positions often enough to justify the risk. He wins anyway because he has one of the best serves on tour and he has a great court-sense, but it feels like he could win quicker.

In general, this is a matchup that’ll require resolve from both because both of them have fairly mediocre backhands and huge forehands. Just hitting cross-court will be the correct decision almost the entire match, and Shelton’s forehand down the line is definitely the better of the two so he has a slight edge there. FAA is better on clay and has more experience at this event so he should win, but both of these players have amazing talent and solid resumes and enough inconsistency and question marks that a loss wouldn’t be out of the question. For me, FAA will be more composed during this match and that should help in what I expect to be a long match. FAA in 5.

Korda vs Alcaraz :

I’ve been saying that Korda is having a bad season, but a lot of his losses are to top players. The frustrating thing is the chances he has against those players and how he seems unable to capitalize. Two three set losses to Medvedev, a straight set loss to Sinner, a 3 set loss to Hurkacz; these results are not bad, but it feels like Korda’s decision-making does not reflect the moment well and it correlates to his easy-going demeanor on court. You can maintain that mode, but when it’s 5-5 40-A in your favor you need to go with your best shot. Korda has too many vaguely unforced errors on defense in those points. Maintain a speed of play, but alter it to keep the ball in the court when it’s a big moment. Hitting a forehand 4 feet long on a break point is disastrous in professional tennis.

Korda is probably always going to frustrate me because he has all the tools, and because occasionally he puts together a performance that makes me think he’s going to get back into the top 20. Alcaraz took a while to put De Jong away, but Jesper played excellent and digging in and competing down 2 sets was a good sign for the rest of his year. He has a great forehand and is fast enough to compete at the top level, so as his serve improves I think he’ll get into the top 100. I don’t think Alcaraz loses to anyone outside the top 10 at this event, so Alcaraz in 3 is what I’m expecting. Korda is better than De Jong but he just doesn’t have the intensity to hit through Carlitos or to force him into errors.

Hurkacz vs Shapovalov :

I was way off about Nakashima, and I got the news before the match even started. DC analyst Gill (not Gross) pointed out that although he’s of short stature, Nakashima has very similar stats to servebots. Watching him buzz around the court I’d gotten the idea that he was quick, but I think one of the reasons he’s thriving on clay is because it gives him extra time to get to the ball. Hurkacz looked able to cover laterally a bit better than Nakashima, and it was Nakashima threatening to win tiebreaks and Hurkacz winning lopsided sets. So going forward, Nakashima somehow = slow servebot, and Hurkacz = adept baseliner? Very odd, but Hurkacz vs Shapovalov will get us back on track. Shapo is through after beating rusty American phenom Francis Tiafoe. Tiafoe seemed to get momentum a few times, but Shapo’s level was higher throughout and his forehand was a big problem for Tiafoe.

I don’t think Hurkacz can win this quickly, but his baseline game is looking better and better over the past few months. He’s improving while on tour and him hanging in rallies longer and playing with more composure is a huge problem because his serve can get him to a 5th set against pretty much anyone. Shapovalov will pepper Hubert’s backhand as often as possible and it will pay dividends, but his own serving inconsistencies will hurt him and Hurkacz seems like a very big step up from Tiafoe. New Hurkacz in 4-5.

Bergs vs Dimitrov :

I thought Maroszan’s crisp offense would get things to a 4th against Dimitrov, but noooooo. Dimitrov is sharp, and hasn’t dropped a set yet. Counting Bergs out after beating Tabilo isn’t a great idea, but it feels like it’ll be very tough for him to score on Dimitrov. Grigor has a bigger serve and Zizou is more of a defensive grinder. I love his game and I love the energy levels that he brings, but there’s levels to this stuff and it looks like Dimitrov is ready to keep this run going. I don’t think it’ll be as quick as the Maroszan match because of Bergs’ playstyle, but Dimitrov in 4.

Moutet vs Ofner :

Watching the 5th set, I felt like Baez had a better chance of beating Moutet. He’s faster, and that’s a huge benefit against Moutet because of all the dropshots and sharp angles he creates. Corentin’s game is peaking at the exact right time, and him thrilling crowds at his home slam is very entertaining. He managed to beat Shevchenko in a marathon 4 sets, despite losing one 6-0. After the 6-0 set, Moutet was raging on the court. He was yelling at his box that the court was “SO SLIPPERY MAN!”, and he blamed them several more times. Honestly, his team should not have made that court so slippery. That’s a bad strategy. In any event, after his tirade he threw his racquet at the net, and after somehow dodging an unsportsmanlike conduct warning, he finished Shevchenko off.

Ofner has big-time power and a great serve. I don’t really like his chances in rallies against Moutet when he’s defending, but on offense he should be able to take care of his serve much easier than Shevchenko. Ofner’s demeanor is fairly calm and intense, and I think it’s perfect for dealing with Moutet and the crowd. Although Baez is one of the premier clay-court specialists on tour right now, he’s been very average in the past few weeks so I don’t really rate the win as highly for Ofner. Moutet, on the other hand, is elevating his game and his playing an extremely fatiguing offense. I like him to outlast Ofner. Moutet in 4.

Kotov vs Sinner :

Kotov apparently got pretty spicy with the crowd after his match against Wawrinka. I checked the rulebook, and getting spicy is allowed. The problem with getting spicy is that crowds often want to get involved. If they think they have a villain, they think that person losing is a win for them. This means that the odds of Kotov getting jeered and bothered while he tries to play Jannik Sinner are high. Sinner is already going to win this match barring catastrophic re-injury of his hip, and now he’ll have several thousand agitated fans on his side.

Kotov has real quality ballstriking, and a 6-2, 7-5 loss in Madrid will let him know that if he digs in, he can have real success against Sinner. Jannik has been fairly unreal this season and RG has seen him clear two rounds without dropping a set. This is the first where he might, but Kotov’s fitness will be in question after a 5 setter with Norrie and an emotional battle against Wawrinka. Sinner in 3.

Swiatek vs Bouzkova :

Oh. My. Glob. That was the match of the tournament, and we’re only in the third round. I was giving Naomi credit for making an effort in the clay-swing and dealing with press, and she almost turned the draw upside down with her play in round two. It wasn’t just her serving effort, her forehand was incredible and she played pretty consistent until the end of the final set. Swiatek played well, but her serve was getting pressured constantly by Osaka. She has a similar return position to Collins and Anisimova, and Swiatek’s one area where she’s less adept than most top players is her serve. She doesn’t hit small targets, and there isn’t a lot of variation from the ad side.

From the second set to the end of the third, Osaka was the better player. She was able to come up with the additional cross-court drive time and time again, and had she looked up from the ball at 30-15, 5-3, I believe she would have converted the setup and won the match. As it stands, she treated us to a tremendous match and some of the highest level WTA tennis we’ve seen in a while. It bodes extremely well for her chances to be competitive in the hardcourt majors and Wimbledon that she was able to compete with the world #1 on clay.

For Swiatek, this match was exhausting, but making it through will free her up. At the end of the match her backhand was able to find some really sharp angles off of solid shots, and the rest of her draw doesn’t have the power that Osaka has. Bouzkova is in solid form and made quick work of Jana Fett, but she doesn’t have the power to hit through Swiatek and this will be another comfortable straight set victory to get her back on track. Swiatek will want to sit in the forehand-cross rallies as often as possible, as Bouzkova’s backhand is much stronger than her forehand. Swiatek in 2.

Potapova vs Wang :

Wang gang. Tomova got to a third, but Wang’s offense started firing and that was that. No reward for her as she plays another huge hitter who’s on a good run. Wang’s forehand is a laser, but Potapova trades power well and her backhand seems much stronger than Wang’s.
Their only previous meeting was on hardcourt in 2022, but Potapova won it fairly convincingly. For Wang to win here, she’d need to basically catch fire on her forehand and on slow clay it’s really tough to beat a good baseliner with just one arm. I think Potapova withstands the onslaught. Potapova in 3.

Danilovic vs Vekic :

Huge career-changing win for Danilovic, and a bit of a surprise since Collins came into the match playing so well. Collins got some medical treatments for a neck issue, and some of her unforced errors in the third made it look like she was trying not to make any quick jerky movements. Danilovic gets a winnable match here in a first meeting with Donna Vekic. Vekic has been playing at a higher level than Olga for her entire career, but she hasn’t been winning much this season, hasn’t been terribly active, and isn’t at her best on slow courts. Vekic has great power and crafty dropshots, but her movement isn’t up to par for the tour. Danilovic should be able to utilize her power and depth to earn errors against a rusty player, but I’d likely have Kostyuk beating Danilovic so Vekic’s win creates a little doubt. To be fair, I also had Collins beating Danilovic, so maybe I should just trust what I see. Danilovic played great, and Vekic has found her game again. Danilovic has elevated to a level that goes beyond what Vekic has shown, so I think she wins a close one. Danilovic in 3.

Paquet vs Vondrousova :

At this point, picking against Paquet feels obvious, but she just pulled off two huge upsets and she’s playing solid. Paquet serves well, and she’s hitting her backhand very clean right now. She’s able to create excellent depth down the line and with the inside-out technique, and it really opened the court up for her against Siniakova. Vondrousova is supposed to be a huge favorite here, but she did just drop a 6-0 set against Volynets, and after going up 0-6, 6-1, 4-0, managed to find herself back on serve before the end of the match. Basically, Vondrousova should outlast Paquet here, but it feels rude to say that again after Paquet proved me wrong two rounds in a row. I’ll cheer for Paquet instead. Vondrousova in 2.

Gauff vs Yastremska :

Gauff was down 3-0 early against Zidansek, but she got the match back on track and won in two single break sets. Yastremska will present a tougher test because she hits huge off both wings. It’ll be out first look at how Gauff takes care of her own serve. If she goes down early and has to fight back here, there’s a decent chance she loses a set along the way. Yastremska’s AO run was a huge surprise, but that level of tennis is in there somewhere so Gauff’s team will want her to maintain a good 1st serve percentage and fight from 0-0. Gauff in 2-3.

Samsonova vs Cocciaretto :

Samsonova has had some subdued seasons since her breakout performances, but she’s starting to look dangerous here. She has the same easy power as a Sabalenka/Rybakina, and while she doesn’t serve as big as them her delivery is effective. Cocciaretto had what I thought was a tough match against Bucsa, but she rolled. Bucsa made too many errors on serve returns, and when she finally got a break point to get back on serve late in the 2nd, she still seemed anxious and rushed through the next few points on her way to the locker room. It was somewhat puzzling, but Cocciaretto is a good serve and hits hard so it may have looked much more difficult from court-level. Tennis looks so simple on tv from the aerial view, but it’s a lot of work.

Samsonova is better than Cocciaretto, and she’s playing excellent right now. I expect Cocciaretto’s serving ability to make her competitive, but her lateral defending is a little slow and Samsonova’s power should make an impact. Samsonova in 2.

Tauson vs Kenin :

I really don’t know who’s going to win this match. I got a handful of things wrong in the last round, and this one feels like a spot where even a correct guess would truthfully be luck. Here’s why. Tauson beat Ostapenko, and she did it with dropshots and power. Ostapenko was her usual plucky self, hitting winners and huge groundstrokes nonstop. At the same time, she was unable to defend when Tauson got a full swing. That’s something that Kenin will do better. Kenin would be a nice pick here since she beat Garcia and seems to be finding her range, but she doesn’t hit as big as Tauson at all and her last few months/seasons have been full of wildly different performances from round to round. How many times have we said “she’s back!” only for her to lose in straights in the next round.

Tennis-wise, it’s all about offense for both players. Tauson hits big enough to give Kenin trouble, and Kenin’s backhand is similar to Collins’ in that once she gets going it’s hard to escape. Clara serves better, but has had fatigue issues in the past. Beating Garcia in straight sets is about as good as outlasting Ostapenko. AHHHHHHH. Who’s going to win? I really wish I knew, but this feels dead even and there is a lot of information in both directions. also it’s 1am and I need to post this. Tauson in 3.

Fernandez vs Jabeur :

Leylah Fernandez winning a few matches is a great sign. She’s not the biggest hitter, but stopping Xiyu Wang’s offense is pretty solid. Jabeur was able to outlast Osorio in round two, and this will be a similar test. Fernandez will keep the ball in play and test Jabeur’s percentages. If Jabeur serves well, she wins. If she doesn’t, this is likely to wind up in the same type of a third set that Ons’ previous match did. Jabeur’s 1st serve percentage was only just over 50% last round, and that makes this a close one. Since she has the experience and a bigger game, I do expect Jabeur to step things up if she gets in trouble. She can get impatient out there and is very results-oriented, but Jabeur is a better tennis player than most of the tour so it’s hard to really call her losing after she wins a few matches. Jabeur in 3.