2024 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Quarterfinals - Wednesday Matches

Rybakina vs Paolini :

This quarterfinals in the WTA seems fairly straightforward. The challengers are excellent, but the favorites really should win. Their games are bigger, they have more experience, and they’re in good form. None of that means much once they take the court though, and for Jasmine Paolini, having no pressure pairs nicely with having a lot of experience against this opponent. Paolini has played Rybakina 4 times, and the h2h sits at 2-2. The two wins were on hardcourt, and both were withdrawals so that stat is kind of misleading. A better result for Paolini to draw on is their match in Stuttgart a few weeks ago (indoor clay), where Rybakina won a close match in 3 sets (6-3, 7-5, 6-3). That seems like conditions that should benefit Rybakina a bit since serving indoor is usually a bit easier, so Paolini will have some belief here.

Last year these two met in Rome, with Paolini coming up short in the first set tiebreaker before losing a lopsided 6-1 second set. Now that I’m done listing random match results, I’ll tell you what I actually think. Rybakina beating Svitolina is a good warmup for playing Paolini because of her rally tolerance. Both Paolini and Svitolina do most of their work with their forehands, and while Paolini is a better mover on clay than Svitolina, Rybakina can still hit winners past her when she’s set. Rybakina served at 54% against Svitolina, and that will probably make her lose to Paolini. Jasmine’s entire game is built around extending rallies and making her opponent move until they make errors forcing shots. If you give her control, she has a great off-forehand that is pretty hard to read. She also commits to taking the ball early when she can so someone like Rybakina without a quick first step is in trouble if she’s not hitting big. Luckily for Rybakina, she hits hard on most shots and she stays in cross-court patterns that are tough for her opponent to escape. It’s a big step up in competition for both players, and this should be very close. I’d compare it to Rune and Zverev, where one player just has a slightly simpler approach but all their rough patches will be extremely costly. Rybakina’s offense should pull through in the end, because even though she’s not the best mover she’s fairly consistent from the baseline when she has to be. Rybakina in 3.

Andreeva vs Sabalenka :

Andreeva got better and stronger this year and that is really cool to see. The losses have started to look rough on her, but the experience she’s gaining at an early age is very similar to what Gauff and Anisimova went through on tour. It sucks to lose, but you have to work through some Ls to get to a point where they don’t scare you anymore. Adjusting your perspective and developing new ones can really change our experience in life, so on the other side of some tough situations will be a player who will be ready to win when it’s finally her time. For now, she seems good enough to beat all the 2nd tier players, and not quite ready in terms of physicality to beat the best. Sabalenka was a scary player when she was wildly inconsistent, and now she is playing solid ball.

Despite her high octane game, Sabalenka is now one of the more consistent performers on tour. She’s 20-6 this year and the focus and commitment she has shown on court is a remarkable change from her early seasons. Her strokes have improved, and her backhand now is a very fluid technique that lets her infuse pace without missing much. Sabalenka beat Navarro in straights, and Emma is around the top level I think Andreeva can bring. Sabalenka has also played Andreeva twice already so she will expect to be playing long baseline rallies and she’ll know her opponent won’t cough up many unforced errors. Both previous meetings were lopsided straight set wins for Aryna, but this is still interesting because of Andreeva’s progress. Mirra is still improving, so her ceiling is uncapped. She can improve over the course of the year, or in a single tournament, or even during a match. The turnover on tour is tough at times when we have favorite players, but watching the phenoms figure it out is pretty cool too. For now, I think she continues to lack the power to really score here, so Sabalenka’s winners to unforced error count is what matters here in the end. That ratio tends to be positive these days, and she’s well rested and in good form. Sabalenka in 2.

Ruud vs Djokovic :

I’m a little sad here. One, because I was expecting Ruud to come up big and beat Djokovic. Ruud has struggled against the big 3 in these big matches at majors, so even though Novak was not at his best it would have been nice for Casper to just get one back. One of the reasons I like the aging champions to play a little longer is because the wins against them can be the defining moments of a young player or journeyman’s career. The second reason I’m sad is because tennis just isn’t as good without Novak Djokovic, and injuries take a long time to recover from and tend to re-occur when you’re in the second half of your career. A meniscus tear can be fixed with minor surgery and rehab, but having uncertainty about placing your full weight on your knee is tough on any surface. With the ultra slippery grass season coming up, it’s just the wrong time to be returning from a knee issue. Healthy people are getting injured out there, so I worry we might not see Novak again until the North American swing.

Djokovic had a strange tournament, and doubled over after long rallies in an homage to Monfils that made me think he actually might have been tired. After watching the guy rally and win for so long, it’s hard for my brain to even compute that he might be getting tired playing tennis. Almost losing to Cerundolo is rough, and I’m sure Francisco is kicking himself a bit for not putting that match away. Djokovic indicated that the painkillers kicked in in the fourth set, and that’s where momentum shifted. It felt like Djokovic was missing and not running down most dropshots, and Cerundolo had started to just rally and assume Novak would miss. Djokovic locked in though, and once he stopped missing Cerundolo didn’t really notice. I don’t think Djokovic could have won the set from 0-0, but from 3-4 it was only a few games away and Djokovic was excellent at applying pressure here since he’s a great returner and Cerundolo only really scores with his forehand.

For Casper, it’s a big bonus. He’ll play the winner of Zverev and De Minaur and he should like his chances against both. Given how well ADM is playing and coupled with the fact that Zverev is still favored, Ruud can expect it to be a long match. Zverev playing multiple 5 setters before a guy who wants to grind long rallies and kick huge topspin at him is a tough one, and again Zverev has gotten the night session which (as Zero_Dimension pointed out to me) is not his preferred conditions because it’s a bit colder. Ruud played solid against Fritz and outlasted him after a frantic first two sets, and his experience and professionalism means we’ll have a great semifinal on this side. Hoping for a quick recovery for Djokovic.

Zverev vs De Minaur :

I thought Medvedev would outlast De Minaur because of his ability to serve and extra wingspan, and that’s part of why I think he’ll lose here. Medvedev was doing well against Alex in the previous round, but he had some blister issues on his feet and it has been well documented in the past that this just isn’t something you can play through. No slight to De Minaur here either, if your opponent suffers from a wear and tear issue, you partially caused that. Alex is playing much better on clay and has pulled two solid upsets here. Zverev would be favored against Medvedev on clay, but if he won in a runaway 4 sets it’d be a very impressive win.

Zverev and De Minaur have played 9 times and Zverev is 7-2. The 2 losses were in team competitions, which many players don’t take as seriously as tour events. The main issue in the matchup is De Minaur’s backhand. It’s a stable shot and his footwork is great, but Zverev hits the ball much bigger on his backhand and is more consistent with it. It means that De Minaur’s best strategy (the inside out forehand) is sort of neutralized. De Minaur’s serve also is more about location than pace, which means Alex’s wingspan gives him the ability to return well. Add in that De Minaur’s ball is much flatter than most players on tour, and clay doesn’t really help him.

There are a lot of things working against De Minaur in this matchup, but there is still hope. He pushes the pace better than almost everyone on tour, and he is looking sharp this week. Zverev has just played two 5 setters against players that De Minaur might very well beat on clay, and he has fallen into push-mode in some big moments which always leaves him there to be beaten. Zverev is in great shape and wasn’t even sweating much or breathing hard at the end of the Rune match, but he is a bit dense about the game itself at times and his forehand can break down. When he’s struggling, he’s usually slow to adjust, so I think De Minaur can get one of the first two sets. From there, I don’t know. Zverev’s serve is a huge weapon in this matchup, and he’s dominated the h2h. De Minaur has a puncher’s chance, but it will take a lot of punches. He beat Struff by working for unforced errors against a guy with poor defense, too much impatience, and a rough backhand. He beat Medvedev by outworking a defensive guy with mobility issues and an inability to hit through the court on clay. Zverev on clay is a bit like a combination of Struff and Medvedev, and I think he gets through here. Playing 5 with Rune isn’t great, but Rune is adept on clay and has the ability to elevate his game against the big names. Zverev in 4.