2024 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Quarterfinals - Tuesday Matches

Dimitrov vs Sinner :

Early in the Dimitrov Hurkacz clash it became clear why the h2h is 5-0 for Dimitrov. Hurkacz is good enough to rally with Dimitrov forever, but can’t escape those rallies. It creates a situation that works against him. The longer the rallies go, the more his legs get worn down. Since Dimitrov is already returning most of his serves, it becomes a problem. Grigor can’t score on Hurkacz, but he doesn’t have to because his game and speed is just good enough to create a weird prison for Hubie. 10-20 shot rallies over and over gets exhausting if you’re not winning them, and Hurkacz had a long day despite being very competitive in the scoreline.

Hurkacz looked like he was about to get the 4th set but a late overrule from the umpire from the opposite side of the court let Dimitrov into the tiebreaker, and he rolled from there. Hurkacz was upset, but Hawkeye showed the umpire was right. This tournament I’ve been really impressed at how accurate the umpires have been at spotting the right mark and judging the ball’s trajectory. Hawkeye has backed them up over and over. That being said, the umpire cam feature is one of the worst ideas I’ve ever seen. It’s abrupt, the level of wobble is nausea-inducing, and spectators at home aren’t getting shifted over in time to see the mark half the time anyway. There are cameras with stabilizing tech that vloggers use, so I suspect this was a last-minute idea.

Corentin Moutet gave us some of the best TV this past week, and his run looked like it would continue against Sinner. The first set was a constant barrage of dropshots and forehands, and Sinner’s physical ability was exposed as somewhat limited. Two things happened that got him the match. He settled into a rhythm hitting the ball inside the lines, and Moutet punched himself out. Once Moutet’s output dipped a little, he was stuck in rallies, and Sinner just doesn’t miss. He has a rare ability to guide the ball into the court low and deep, and he has the same Djokovic-like commitment to just rallying forever. Jannik isn’t pushing to end the rally, but when his opponent hits a slice or a neutral shot, he’s able to create angles and shots down the line better than anyone on tour right now. Despite rolling in the last few sets, I did think that Sinner was a step slow. He’s not visibly struggling or anything, but he’s not automatic on sprinting forward or to the right.

Sinner has beaten Dimitrov every time they’ve played, except the one time they played on clay. That was in 2020, so this is a tricky spot for Grigor. So far Dimitrov has been winning by outlasting his opponents. Bergs made forehand errors against the slice, and Hurkacz couldn’t hit big enough to get through Dimitrov’s defenses. Sinner won’t really struggle with long rallies, and he won’t cough up many errors. Dimitrov’s defense can challenge Sinner’s health, but it’s really difficult to say where that’s at, and he finished strong against Moutet so it may be an issue that’s rough early but warms up with play. I feel like Dimitrov will be competitive here, but his backhand will eventually wear down. We have seen a very composed, very “I know I can outlast you” version of Dimitrov thus far, and against Sinner he needs to go a little bigger. Should be a great match. It’s a copout to say that barring a physical injury (the hip), Sinner wins in 4, but that’s what can be expected.

Tsitsipas vs Alcaraz :

Let’s goooooo. This is the best Tsitsipas has looked in several years. He’s playing with great energy, he’s focused on court, he’s serving well, and his footwork to find forehands is excellent. He’s completely fresh for this match, and he just played a great warmup for this match against Arnaldi. Matteo was sharp in the first set, but eventually Stefanos wore him down. The number of balls and the degree of scrambling that Arnaldi makes his opponent do will have Tsitsipas ready for a match against Alcaraz, and I think it’s pretty important that he start off strong. Alcaraz has defeated Tsitsipas every time they’ve met, but the Tsitsipas of the past few seasons has really been subpar at times so some of those losses can be discounted. This feels like the best version of Tsitsipas in his best environment against an Alcaraz who’s the most vulnerable he’s been in a while. At least, on paper he’s vulnerable.

Sinner and Alcaraz came into this tournament with possible injuries. Sinner has a hip issue, and Alcaraz’s forearm has given him trouble this week after title runs. So far, Alcaraz has been fine. He’s been dusting the competition, but for me he hasn’t really had a threat. FAA just tries to hit bigger and bigger once he’s losing, and he isn’t consistent enough to do that. If he was, he’d already be doing it and he’d be in the top 10. Korda plays a very high level of tennis, but he’s not fast enough or clutch enough to close out against the top guys lately. Tsitsipas finishes strong and he competes better than both of Alcaraz’s first opponents, so I think this is the first match where he drops a set. Carlos’ issue at times has been unforced errors, so I’ll be looking closely here at his shot selection in the early stages.

In the end, I think this will be much closer than people expect, but calling for the outright upset is a problem because of Tsitsipas’ backhand. In the past, Alcaraz has been able to isolate it, and despite that wing showing signs of life this week, it still can be worn down. Tsitsipas’ slice also sits up way too much, and that will let Alcaraz get forehands. I think this will be a big like Berrettini against the big 3. He’ll win at least a set and be competitive throughout, but trying to beat top players with just a forehand requires a mercurial performance. Alcaraz in 4-5.

Gauff vs Jabeur :

I haven’t caught a lot of Gauff this week, but what I have seen has been good. Her backhand has been sharp, and the conditions are really suiting her. Gauff’s forehand is a bit whippy so far, and not really penetrating the court. This gives her opponents opportunities, but on the waterlogged clay it is nearly impossible to hit through her. Speed and a tremendous backhand are a good formula, and while Gauff’s serve and forehand can be a little tentative, she throws in enough solid shots and serves with them for it not to be a safe target.

Jabeur is having a good run here, but the expectations for her (given her past success) are much higher. She has the skill and experience to compete for Grand Slams, but sometimes lacks the focus and commitment on the court. A hip issue has slowed her season down a bit, but she seems to be playing well here. 6-4, 6-4 against Tauson doesn’t sound so excellent, but Clara looked very uncomfortable against Jabeur and she had already beaten Ostapenko and Kenin so she wasn’t exactly playing poorly.

Against Gauff, I think Jabeur can be competitive, but the question here is how long she can keep that level up. Against Fernandez she had a second set letdown. Against Osorio she dropped a set. Against Tauson again she was not at her best at the end of the second set. It doesn’t look physical, so I expect her to go the distance, but Gauff’s approach is way simpler here and I think she can eventually wear down Jabeur’s backhand. This feels similar to Tsitsipas Alcaraz honestly. Jabeur has the offense to score on Gauff, the experience, and is playing well after a slump, but she has lost this matchup enough times for Gauff to have belief even if she gives up an early lead. Gauff has been rolling, and should keep going. Gauff in 2.

Swiatek vs Vondrousova :

Swiatek sitting at -1600 vs a recent Grand Slam champion who’s playing on her preferred surface is pretty wild, but these are wild times. Recency bias is a thing, and beating Potapova 6-0, 6-0 while losing just ten points is pretty crazy, but Swiatek really is that good. If she plays her game, Vondrousova doesn’t have much of a chance. They’ve had a few tiebreakers in their past meetings, but Swiatek has won them all in straights. Slow clay is just too good for Iga’s game, and she’s been beating a higher tier of opponent than Marketa this whole tournament so she’s sharper. Vondrousova’s game revolves around consistency, funky gets, and a crosscourt forehand. Swiatek hits a little too big to really get outlasted by just defense, and her backhand can be rough but it hasn’t since the end of the Osaka match. Swiatek has 1 loss in her last 19 matches, and she’s playing great. Swiatek in 2.