2024 Roland Garros Men's Singles Round Two Wednesday Matches

Rublev vs Martinez :

For a good chunk of his career, Rublev has made quick work of matches like this. When he’s the bigger hitter and his opponent doesn’t have a huge serve, he’s supposed to thrive. Lately though, Andrey hasn’t been automatic in these spots. He’s always had a temper, but it’s been on display following his errors lately and it has given his opponents belief. Taro Daniel won a set, and Martinez is at least as good as him. 5 sets with Tirante doesn’t indicate he’s ready to upset Rublev, but I would expect the bulk of this to be fairly competitive. Rublev in 4.

Muller vs Arnadli :

Muller scored a comfortable victory against Luca Nardi in the opening round, and he will continue to battle the Italian federation in round two against Matteo Arnaldi. Arnaldi had a fairly easy time with Arthur Fils, despite getting broken 6 times. Fils is a solid player with all the attributes to be a top player on clay, but he has no patience. He’s extremely willing to go for broke from any position, and when the rally stretches long he tries to hit the big shot as soon as it appears. As a fan, I want to see big shots, but to win on clay you need to play a more conservative approach. Arnaldi is way more stable from the baseline than Fils, but bailing out of rallies early isn’t the right plan because it means Arnaldi doesn’t really feel like he has to do anything special to win.

Muller will hang in rallies longer and is a good bit better than Fils on clay, but he doesn’t have this level of win on his resume yet. Arnaldi’s register is very high and I mostly only see him losing to players who hit bigger. I expect him to have to work harder and longer than he did against Fils, but this should go to Arnaldi in 3-4.

Sonego vs Zhang :

Immense power. A huge forehand. Inconsistent results. A cannon of a serve but a slightly subpar backhand. Which player am I describing? This is a matchup that is very close. Humbert fell apart against Koepfer last week in Lyon and his slump continued, allowing Sonego to get a much-needed win. Zhang had a great draw and took advantage of it, besting Vukic in 4. The big difference I see in these two players is the speed. Sonego is a bit quicker around the court and that might allow him to win a few extra points. Given they both have the ability to protect their service games I would expect a tiebreaker or two, and at least 4 sets. I’m a big Zhang fan but he hasn’t been as good on clay as he was in the Challenger grind, so Sonego in 4-5.

Altmaier vs Tsitsipas :

Tsitsipas was clinical in beating Fucsovics in round one. He’s back with Badosa, he’s a dark horse to win this event, and he’s playing great tennis. Having that focus is big for a player who’s struggled for confidence, and Altmaier is a player he can probably beat. Daniel has always been capable on clay, and he has some amazing clashes with big name players like Sinner in the past, but lately I haven’t loved his level. Beating an inactive Djere was honestly good, but I think Tsitsipas is fresh and will be hitting the ball bigger the entire match here. Altmaier moves the ball well but he will very likely get worn down as this progresses. Tsitsipas in 4.

Shelton vs Nishikori :

Nishikori pulling up and beating one of the better qualifiers was impressive, but I guess if we’re being honest Diallo isn’t automatic yet. He has a bright future, but big hitters can often be undone by a slick defender and Nishikori has all the experience in the world. I think this will be fun because Shelton is a lefty. Attacking Nishikori’s backhand will get him punished up the line and cross-court, because Kei has one of the best backhands the tour has ever seen. The downside is Kei just played a five setter so he might be a bit tired, and he’s not serving well enough to score easy points. Shelton’s team hopefully has told him to take his forehand inside out and down the line as often as possible. Shelton in 4.

Auger-Alliassime vs Squire :

Gutsy performance in round one from Squire. Even in the fifth set tiebreak he was still hitting his backhand down the line for effect, and while he double faulted in a few crucial moments he served effectively the entire match. I’m not sure how his game will fare against Felix. FAA is inconsistent but he’s had a good month and he does everything a little bigger than Squire here. Felix in 3-4.

Korda vs Kwon :

Korda winning in straight sets is honestly surprising the way it feels like his season is going. Checking his history though he’s been winning his fair share of matches, it’s just watching his losses that makes me feel he’s struggling. More surprising is Kwon winning in straights. Ruusuvuori continues to struggle on clay and Kwon returning from a layoff to black him is a great result for him. His insistence on pushing the pace and hitting to the open court will bother Korda a bit, but he’s a bit out of his weight class here. Korda’s serving is good enough to get him through here, but Kwon winning in straights means expecting him to just lose in straights is pretty unreasonable. Korda in 4-5. The problem here is Korda is supposed to win this in straights, but Kwon is supposed to lose round one so he’s at a level beyond what we’re estimating him at when we say Korda in 3.

De Jong vs Alcaraz :

Jesper De Jong won the best match of his career in round one, getting past Jack Draper and setting up a matchup against the current tournament favorite. It almost has to be the end of the road, but De Jong will give us our first look at how Alcaraz is playing. Carlos was immaculate in round one, losing only 4 games, but Wolf is just not good on clay, and is having one of his worst runs ever on tour. Alcaraz in 3 is likely again because De Jong doesn’t have the hugest serve, but this will be much more competitive than the Wolf match. Alcaraz in 3-4.

Hurkacz vs Nakashima :

Considering Mochizuki took Hurkacz to 5, Nakashima has to like his chances here. Mochigoat is one of the fun players to watch on tour and his volleys at net are unreal, but Hurkacz is supposed to win that match in a safe manner. Now he’s playing Nakashima who won against Moreno De Alboran in a solid performance, and has been grinding clay events the entire year, using them almost exclusively to earn his way back into the top 100. Hurkacz won’t necessarily struggle as much in this one; it’s fairly common on tour for players to squeak through a strugglebus performance and feel like they’re freerolling in the next round. You already should have been out, so you play with no pressure and your best tennis comes out.

Hubert’s serve can get him to the finish line against pretty much anyone as well, so Nakashima will have to lock in and try to wear Hurkacz down. It may sound silly, but Isner used to struggle more against the guys that couldn’t ace him. Putting the serve return in is great, but if the other player is a solid baseliner, it means you’re playing 6-8 shot rallies over and over. This can take the legs away from a big server, and Nakashima fits this bill. While I’m bullish on Nakashima here, I think it’s more likely that this will be close enough that anyone can win, and whoever plays the big points better will. A server like Hurkacz in tiebreakers is pretty efficient, and playing a servebot in a 5th is a really tough ask if they’re serving first. Honestly, I saw this match in the draw and thought Nakashima was 50/50, so I’m sticking with it. Nakashima in 5.

Shapovalov vs Tiafoe :

Shapovalov is winning tennis matches again. It’s great to see, but he’s in Dimitrov territory for me. Sure he’s winning, but I’m not going near it because I don’t want to get hurt again. His opponent this round is a player whose range of play goes from “does he even play tennis anymore?” to “omg he’s going to win the US Open” Bellucci almost had Tiafoe, and a few big returns for Tiafoe ended up being the key in the end. Tiafoe will probably be competitive here, and playing a lefty the round before means his backhand got a good workout and he’ll be comfortable with the generic patterns that a lefty will bring. Shapovalov hits bigger than Tiafoe regularly, and it will take a big step up in effort/consistency from Tiafoe to win this. Given his serving ability and the underlying ability to play top level tennis, being sure Tiafoe will lose here doesn’t make sense. I’m expecting a match where both players will be pretty frustrated at times, and I think the one who’s more willing to lock in and play stingy defensive tennis will win. For once, that seems to be Shapo. Shapovalov in 4-5.

Bergs vs Marterer :

There were some wild first round results, but Tabilo losing quickly to Zizou Bergs was one of the biggest. Not only does he get a huge result, but he’s a favorite to win his second round also. Marterer has gotten a lot of respect and fallen short on tour for a few seasons, but he made good on the respect and beat Thompson in 3. Marterer is a powerful lefty who crushes the ball, and the one problem with his game is he sort of plays at one speed. Hitting big is great but he sometimes plays his opponents into form by showing them the same pace over and over. Shapovalov had a similar problem during his slump as well. Marterer shouldn’t be counted out of this match at all, but Bergs is much quicker around the court and I think Maximilian’s backhand will get worn down eventually. Bergs in 4.

Maroszan vs Dimitrov :

I’ll take tickets to this match. Both are through in straight sets, and both hit extremely clean and play skilled tennis. Maroszan can win this match, but I think Dimitrov’s ability to defend will eventually get him through. Maroszan’s power and forehand are good enough to hit some winners, but he also scores a lot off of dropshots. I think it’s still a viable option, but Dimitrov’s speed will make it a risky option. Expecting a high level clash here and when both players are extremely skilled sets usually get traded. Dimitrov in 4 is what I suspect, but since it’s his defense I expect to get him across the finish line this could easily go 5. Maroszan is really good, and it’s just fitness and decision-making that are left for him to work on.

Moutet vs Shevchenko :

Moutet’s coach got a bit spicy before the Jarry match, allegedly mad about fans’ behavior in the Moutet Jarry clash in Chile. It seemed to work, as Moutet played some of the best tennis he ever has and beat Jarry in 4 exhilarating sets. That same level should win this contest, but a slightly different style of opponent can complicate things. Shevchenko is a plucky baseliner and he will make Moutet earn all his points. He managed to outlast Karatsev in round one in a 5 set clash that had a million changes in momentum and 21 breaks. Moutet’s level was higher, but besting another offense is sometimes a simpler task. Shevchenko is going to put the ball in annoying spots and try to outlast Moutet, so this is a mental test. I think Moutet is up for it, but I could see it taking some time to happen. Moutet in 4.

Ofner vs Baez :

Gustavo Heide should be on everyone’s radar now. He hits the ball huge and clean, and has one of the better serves from the young crop of talents on tour. Honestly, when I first saw him 2 years ago I think he was a servebot and an old guy, and now his baseline game has developed in a major way and somehow he’s 22. Stay still Gustavo! Baez had this mostly wrapped up and Heide was tired, and then he won 2 lopsided sets in a row. I was expecting Baez to go on a run here, and he played Ruud close in Geneva so this is a good reprieve for him (playing Ofner). Ofner beat Atmane in 5 and he has the power to compete with Baez, but not the consistency. The 5 setter with Heide was surprising, but I’m willing to chalk it up to Heide’s high level rather than Baez being a flight risk. Baez in 4.

Kotov vs Wawrinka :

Hehe. Kinda fair for these two to play each other. If there were any two players to look both ways during a changeover and then sneak a cupcake out of their bag and scarf it, it’s these two offensive wizards. Kotov managed to outlast Norrie which is honestly a tremendous win, and Wawrinka continued his clay dominance against Murray in a straight set win. Kotov is a little better and has more stamina at this point, but Wawrinka is serving well and I expect him to win at least 1 of the first two sets.

Wawrinka has been losing to a lot of players right around Kotov’s level recently (Martinez in 2, ARV in 3, Borges in 3) so it’s tempting but tricky to declare him a winner. Tennis-wise, my brain won’t let me see Kotov winning. Pavel serves well and hits big, and for a guy who appears out of shape he wins a lot of marathon matches and has good power late in the game. 5 sets with Norrie isn’t going to help him here, and if Wawrinka can get up 2-0 or 2-1 it could easily be goodnight just because he can then open up. Norrie is a tough out, but on clay his shots don’t really clear the court. Wawrinka is almost a clay specialist at this point in his career, and he serves a lot bigger than Cam also.

This is wide open, and if I could skip a match, it’d be this one. Wawrinka in 4 or Kotov in 5. Stan needs to win quickly, but his recent results don’t make it realistic. You can point to him smoking Murray, but Murray is really a gimme these days on clay.

Gasquet vs Sinner :

Jannik Sinner has filled the void that the gradual departure of the big 3 is creating. He was always a tremendous player, but now he’s become extremely reliable at that level. His returning is world class, his serve is constantly improving, and his baseline game is now measured and tactical rather than an all-out assault. He knows when to just put the ball in play, and his footwork is constant. I love it. Gasquet turned back the clock and smoked Coric in straight sets, but the road probably ends here. This will be a high-level match and the crowd will be behind Gasquet in a major way. Jannik is a classy kid and will understand the atmosphere and respect it enough to navigate to the finish line. Sinner in 3-4.