2024 Roland Garros Men's Singles Round Two Thursday Matches

Djokovic vs Carballes Baena :

Djokovic was his usual round one self against Herbert. He didn’t do anything special, but the match never really felt like it was getting away from him. The score was close, but he won in straights while not having to really elevate his level. This season it feels like the automatic ability to elevate is not really within his control, but against Carballes Baena we will get a look at where his mobility and stamina are. The problem with predicting a wild crashout against RCB is that Roberto doesn’t have a big serve. Djokovic will be able to put most returns in play, and Carballes Baena sticks to pretty consistent cross-court hitting with his backhand so Djokovic will have ample time to get warmed up.

Where RCB can hurt Djokovic is in his commitment to hitting to the open court. Playing composed tennis and conserving energy for later rounds is smart, but when someone else is trying to run you around as their main goal it’s tough to do. Part of the reason Herbert was able to make the scoreline respectable is how well he serves and how much variety and skill there is in his game. I think RCB might be able to win a set if Djokovic’s level dips, but he’ll have a much harder time scoring overall than Herbert did, and I expect Djokovic to get better each round. Djokovic in 4.

Monfils vs Musetti :

This should be a really high quality contest. Monfils played great against Seyboth Wild, and after a big letdown of his energy levels in the second set he looked sunk. Monfils’ physical condition is always a mystery because he does his fair share of ankle grabbing and wincing, and most of this tends to be correlated to whether he just made or missed a shot. He’s still very good though, and playing for his home crowd seems to have given him some focus. Thiago didn’t play poorly at all, so this win signifies that Monfils will compete for the remainder of the event.

Musetti continued his h2h dominance against Galan with a straight set victory. His style and Monfils are wildly different in terms of swing production but their approach is very similar. Both have great speed and can defend the baseline admirably. Both are a bit too passive and only really ratchet up the pace on their forehand. Monfils definitely has the bigger serve delivery but he seems like the guy with slightly fewer weapons here. There’s zero way this is a blowout for either player so I could expect a minimum of 4 sets. Gael is not really motivated at the lower tier events, but his recent losses to grinders like Monteiro and Darderi make me think that being presented with a difficult player to hit through like Musetti will get him forcing things a little bit. Musetti in 5.

Cerundolo vs Misolic :

Cerundolo was heavily favored in round one against a very strong opponent, and now we know why. He played incredibly focused and powerful tennis the entire time. He doesn’t have a great draw, but he could go on a run here. Misolic was down 2-0 against lucky loser Virtanen and down a break and somehow won in 5. He is traditionally a better second half player since he needs time and his main attribute is heavy hitting on the forehand wing, but he looked completely out of his match so he’ll be happy just to make the second round of a major. It’s a big paycheck, and the end of the road for him. Cerundolo’s level is too high right now, and it’ll be interesting to see him and Tommy Paul. Cerundolo in 3.

Fognini vs Paul :

This one becomes tough because of how quickly Fognini ran through Van De Zandschulp. Botic is having a terrible year and floated retirement plans after the loss, and as we all know retirement plans mean he’s about to go on a crazy run of victories. Botic played poorly, but Fabio was on the front foot the entire match and he can be really tough on clay when he’s like that. Tommy Paul is such a solid performer at the majors but he lost their one previous meeting (2019 hardcourt 2-0) and Fognini has 0 pressure here. I’m still expecting Paul to win but I think Fognini will be very dangerous in the early goings and I expect this to go 4-5 sets. Paul in 4-5.

Lajovic vs Fritz :

Somehow Safiullin put together a solid performance on clay. Lajovic was in trouble for big sections of the match and a 5 set win sets up a difficult but winnable contest against Taylor Fritz. Fritz indicated earlier this year that he feels the variety in his game makes him effective on clay. I would point more to him actually hitting the court and being willing to put in the work, but we shall see. Coria was able to snag the first set against Fritz because Taylor came out pretty flat, and Lajovic should have at least the same level of success.

This is another match where Fritz should win at the end because his ability to serve big and win shorter points matters, and despite being built like a baby deer he’s younger than Lajovic and had a much less intense first round. While Lajovic is fresh I think they’re pretty even. Dusan has an excellent one-hander and hits with great depth. His takeback is pretty hard to read so Fritz’s slightly slower than average lateral movement might get exposed, but Lajovic’s serving isn’t good enough to keep Fritz from finding a rhythm. I don’t think the upset is out of the question here, and in a 2/3 format I would almost believe in it, but in a long match I think Fritz’s decisionmaking (not as good as Lajovic’s) becomes less of an issue and his serving and forehand become a bigger factor. Fritz in 5.

Kokkinakis vs Zeppieri :

Kokkinakis and Popyrin crushed the ball for 4 and a half hours in round one, and both hit more winners than unforced errors. It was a good quality match, and Kokkinakis will now face another strong offense in round two. Thanasi hit something like 60 winners to 30 unforced errors in the first, and that ratio is hard to argue against when you combine it with his powerful serve. The rain in Paris might provide some of the 5 set participants a reprieve, as delays in play can offer an extra day of rest. Kokkinakis has had fatigue and injury issues throughout his career, but I expect a good performance here.

The big issue I see for Kokkinakis here is his backhand. Zeppieri is a powerful lefty and he’s going to know that that side can be worn down. Zeppieri was in bad shape early against Mannarino, but his power eventually broke through. He has an excellent serve, is fairly consistent from the baseline, and the only real holes in his game are : his backhand doesn’t have much variety, he goes huge on his forehand constantly. The unforced errors can pile up for Zeppieri, so I think he’ll drop a few sets due to pressure. The good news for him is he resets well, and I still think that Kokkinakis is not quite as good on clay as him. Zeppieri in 5.

Etcheverry vs Rinderknech :

This is a weird matchup. Rinderknech won fairly easily against Adam Walton, who has only two professional matches on clay. Etcheverry had a similarly straightforward win against Cazaux, who provided highlights but missed every other offensive attempt. Cazaux also went for shots almost every rally so Etcheverry eventually just started hitting the ball in the court. Pushmode Etcheverry is not really the best, and Rinderknech has a good enough serve and gets to net well so this could be closer than it seems on paper. On paper, Etcheverry is a specialist, and he hits bigger off both wings than Rinderknech. He’s faster, he has a decent serve, and he has more experience. The defensive style he settled into against Cazaux is a concern though, because he just lost to Perricard in Geneva playing the same approach.

The rain is slowing the courts down, and I think that helps Etcheverry a little. His best game can beat Rinderknech quickly, but I don’t think that’s been present this season. I expect Rinderknech to get very close to this, but for his baseline game to be just a little too inefficient to win. Etcheverry in 4-5.

Davidovich Fokina vs Ruud :

Davidovich Fokina matches are the best kind of stressful. He’s somehow always expected to win but never expected to do so in a straightforward manner. When FAA is down 2 sets to love, fans go “ugh” and start to worry about his career. When ADF is down 2 sets to love, fans go “lol obv”. Vacherot was a tough test and a big server, so losing a set and having a competitive match isn’t a problem. Foki still remains one of the players on tour with every skill necessary to win big titles, but it seems unlikely at this point that he’ll find a way to win quickly. Here, he has a familiar opponent. Davidovich Fokina beat Casper Ruud in 2021 in a thrilling 5 set clash, but this one is projected to be different. ADF’s level hasn’t been that high, and Ruud just won a title in Geneva. Casper is serving extremely well, and with the tournament feeling a bit open him and his team will be laser focused on getting him at least to the quarters where big questions can be answered.

This should be very competitive because Ruud is only going to score on his forehand, but ADF’s inconsistency is likely to cost him. He can elevate to this level but since he’s not there all the time it’ll be tough mentally for him to stay there. Ruud in 4.

Zverev vs Goffin :

Zverev played well against Nadal. It was an emotionally challenging spot to be put in, because who really wants to defeat Nadal if it’s his last RG. It was a physically challenging spot to be put in, because Nadal is one of the hardest first rounds at this tournament. Zverev was coming off a title run, which is regarded as a classic letdown spot. Still, he navigated it well. Nadal is not the same without his speed. He’s still a great player, but his opponents aren’t under the same pressure to hit to small targets that they were before. Zverev was able to test Nadal’s defense with backhands down the line and while his serve is world class, Nadal’s usual deep returns hung up a bit shorter in the court than usual.

Nadal says he’s not sure he’s retiring yet, and I say great. I don’t see a way to win at tennis when you can’t run, so there are no majors in his future, but a little adjustment of goals can let you really enjoy your last few years on tour. It doesn’t change anything in the record books, but imagine the excitement for a smaller city of having Nadal show up and win their 250. He’s still capable of winning a short 2/3 format tournament, and it would make some players career to get a shot at playing him. He may still want a big title, but equally we all still want to see him play. He did improve over the last few matches, but I don’t think the speed issue is going to change so the Olympic title is out of reach (coupled with the fact that he doesn’t have a clear path to gain entry).

Goffin took advantage of a slightly tired Perricard who was fresh off a title run in Lyon, and it still took 5 sets. The slow clay is not the best for Perricard, but he has a lot of talent. He’s tall, he serves great, he has a solid one-hander down the line, and he plays decent at net. Goffin will be happy with the win, but he has very little chance against Zverev. Zverev does everything bigger and better than him, and he’s playing well right now. Zverev in 3.

Darderi vs Griekspoor :

McDonald was up a break in two sets against Griekspoor, but Griekspoor was able to win in four, only dropping a lopsided third set along the way. It sets up a match that I’d normally like him in, but there are some slight concerns that Griekspoor’s arm is not 100%. He mentioned to the media that he wasn’t able to practice fully for a day or two, so Darderi is a tough opponent. Darderi seems to have lost some of the form that saw him win his maiden title in Argentina, but his plan is generally to outlast his opponent. He’s extremely fast and consistent, and when he does have openings, he can create some nice depth on his forehand and short angles on his backhand. Griekspoor is better on offense and capable of defending as well, but it feels like he’s at risk of being outlasted here. Darderi in 4-5.

Khachanov vs Kovalik :

Fairly straightforward match here, but only because Khachanov is playing great right now. Kovalik beat Giron and the second round of a major is a huge paycheck for a guy who’s been stuck off tour for 3+ seasons. Kovalik has a really sharp forehand and will pressure Karen, but Khachanov is just not missing balls right now. He was in a tremendous rhythm against Nagal in round one and made Nagal’s consistency look inconsistent. He hits too much for Kovalik, and his performances at majors have only improved over the years. Khachanov in 3-4.

Cobolli vs Rune :

This match is extremely dangerous for Rune. He needs to wake up immediately and play his best tennis, or he will have a hard time getting momentum back. The way Cobolli plays is to be as tenacious as possible and push the pace. Usually he gets outhit early, and then wears players down. In the last round though, he was on fire from 0-0. Medjedovic never got a chance to get involved, and it wasn’t until the third set and down a break that he actually started to be able to hit through Cobolli. It was the best tennis Cobolli has played, and these are the best conditions for his game.

Rune beat Evans in straight sets, and he’s one of the better talents who isn’t going to win a major anytime soon. He has all the tools and good technical skills, but alternating between hyper-aggressive and pushing has left him looking like two different players out there. It leds to questions about his motivation and focus, and that makes people read extra into wins and losses. I think it’s about belief for him. He’s a flow player and when he’s hitting clean and landing winners, his game opens up. I understand why he goes big early, but in the end his game won’t look like that. His ability to defend and his good technique mean he can play more like a Djokovic and thrive, because when he does ratchet up the power or land a big serve it will apply a lot of pressure to his opponent. It’ll take a good coach or something that makes him mature mentally for this to come, so right now I think he’ll have trouble in this match. Cobollin in 4. Rune is supposed to be better here but it reminds me a little of the ADF Ruud clash where one guy has spent way more time working himself into form and is facing someone with more talent but more variation in their level.

De Minaur vs Munar :

Munar gets a lot of respect, but his game isn’t that big. I really don’t see him scoring on De Minaur without a ton of work here, and it’s work Alex is happy to put in. Munar and De Minaur played a 3 setter in 2021 in Madrid that ADM won, but Alex is a way more capable clay-courter at this point. Munar scored a quality win against RBA, but he doesn’t have an upset of this caliber in a major and it’s hard to see it coming here. I’d expect a close scoreline but for De Minaur to outlast him. ADM in 4.

Struff vs Bublik :

I’d love to to be courtside for this match. Struff beat Burruchaga in round one, proving that he’s in good form. Burruchaga will make you play 1,000 balls, and Struff did so while only yielding one break point the entire match. He now plays Bublik, who straight setted a talented French opponent (Barrere) who was projected by my dumbass and oddsmakers alike to have a good chance against Bublik. Bublik is always a risk to pull an upset, but these conditions favor Struff a little bit. Struff leads the h2h 3-1, and beat Bublik in their one previous meeting on clay. It’s not terribly brilliant to expect some close sets here since both players are extremely talented servers, and I would expect Bublik to create some opportunities for himself because of how talented he is and how in control of his own level he tends to be. Expecting this to be close. Struff in 4-5.

Machac vs Navone :

First I want to welcome PCB back to the tour. I had forgotten just how cleanly he hits the ball and he was in really good form in his first match back. At times it seemed like he would beat Navone but Navone’s consistent defending eventually wore him down. Up next for Navone is a guy he probably can wear down but who can score points much quicker. Machac just came off a finals run, so he’s expected to gas out at some point this week. Borges did a fine job of testing his fitness, but he couldn’t hang on to his own serve. Machac is able to swing twice and end a point, and despite some good power of his own, Borges turns into a defensive-minded player in most matches. He tried to outlast Machac, and it just didn’t work. To me, Borges’ wins are starting to depend entirely on his serve. When he serves well, he just seems like a completely different player. It gets his forehand time to work, and his backhand down the line becomes effective as well. When returns are coming back strongly, he can’t really create his own points.

Machac should beat Navone here, but Navone is a good sight more competitive than Borges when it comes to defending on clay. He hits with more height and better depth, and he’s probably faster. His problem will be trying to get the match to a point where Machac starts to miss. Tomas has a great serve and his forehand is too fast to really defend against if you leave the ball short. Some people don’t like dual predictions but I’d expect Machac to win quickly or Navone to win in 5. The fact that Borges broke a bunch of times and was up 4-1 in the second makes me feel like Machac is there for the taking, it just requires a dip in his level and there’s no real way to be sure of that.

Kecmanovic vs Medvedev :

Kecmanovic has never beaten Medvedev, and lost to him here in 2022. Medvedev is a lot better now on clay, and Kecmanovic is in the middle of a strange sort of slump in which he wins matches but is still considered to be playing inconsistent tennis. Miomir just lost to Monteiro in Rome, but beat him convincingly in round one. It makes my mind jump to him being able to beat Medvedev, who has never really been the most unplayable on clay. The problem with finding Medvedev more harmless on clay is that it still requires an absurd amount of tennis to beat him. Monteiro is a good win, but beating Medvedev is playing play 1 on 2 against two Monteiros, where both Monteiro’s don’t really hit the ball hard and sometimes the Monteiros yell and gesture at their box, and one of the Monteiros at least has a funny lil Superman curl and tiny alligators on his shirt. Medvedev in 4-5.