2024 Roland Garros Men's Singles Round One

ATP Singles

Djokovic vs Herbert :

Somehow, for idk maybe the millionth time, a member of the big 3 has managed to fly under the radar heading into a major. Djokovic has won the most majors of any player in the Open era, he’s one of the few people to ever beat Rafael Nadal at this tournament, he’s the #1 seed, and the defending champion. Yet a few lackluster performances in the lead-up events have him as a question mark as far as whether he’s the favorite or not. He sits just behind Alcaraz in the odds to be the eventual champion, and that’s with Alcaraz having a possible issue with his right forearm.

There has been a certain pattern in the past few seasons. Djokovic loses at the big leadup events, then heads to a 250 the week before a major. He wins that, then he wins the major. He’s in the semifinals of Geneva right now, so you can pretty much understand where we are on the timeline right now. The M1000 events are work-intensive things, and it seems that Novak is not really keen on winning them. He always crashes out early from Monte Carlo, but Madrid and Rome seem to be titles he’s not wholly invested in anymore. It’s very tempting to say that he’s just not as good as he was, but I watched a bunch of his practice sessions over the past month and he looked disinterested in effort more than he looked to be struggling at tennis.

In short, Djokovic is done (in a good way), and he knows it. He doesn’t have to do anything anymore to secure his legacy, and so he can focus on what he wants to. For him, it seems that spending time with family and hunting majors is what that looks like. If you watch him and Dimitrov’s practice session in Rome (on TennisTV’s YouTube Channel) you can see him not really looking to play long points. He’s not really seeing the ball great on return, and had Dimitrov not slowed down the set could have been over in ten minutes. Yes, that means he’s probably not fully committed to Rome, but it doesn’t mean anything for Roland Garros.

Alcaraz has a potential fore-arm issue. Yes he’s won titles after a bit of rest, but the following event he had to pull out each time. This means that there is potentially an expiration date on his ability to play his best tennis, and RG is a long grind. Sinner has a potential hip issue. For a guy who mainly loses to fatigue buildup in his legs, this means Djokovic may just have to outlast him and hope his opponents keep him out there a long time. Zverev is playing great, but going back to back is extremely difficult on tour. The old “well I won the last event” excuse will pop up in any difficult situation, and honestly playing 4 weeks of grueling winning tennis in a 5 week period is a big ask. It just feels like the other big names who have the ability and experience to win this title are all sporting legitimate physical question marks, and Djokovic’s only big hindrance here is commitment and focus. With no Geneva, those could still linger, but after watching him get a week’s worth of practice reps, and knowing how difficult it is to beat him across a 3/5 format, I think he becomes a very strong candidate to win this event.

Herbert landed in a tough spot for a wildcard. I would buy tickets for this match because he plays an extremely entertaining style of tennis and has the skill to play high level points with Novak, but even with a classic 1st round slow start from Djokovic this should just be a formality. Right now it looks like Herbert/RCB/Musetti/Paul/Ruud/Zverev for him to make the finals. Yes this is a solid lineup, but Djokovic is just plain better than all of these guys and by the time he reaches each of them, he’ll have had the ideal warmup. Herbert will let him get his offense ready. RCB will let him play 1,000 balls and get his baseline timing together, which will then help him against Musetti whose main attribute is being a wall from the baseline. Paul is playing great but his backhand will be an eventual liability in the cross-court exchanges, and that’s something Djokovic will be in good shape with since isolating Musetti’s one-hander is the main goal. Ruud has his best chance here to make the finals with so many question marks surrounding the top guys, but he’s hiding a weak backhand as well and he’s historically struggled a lot against the big 3. Zverev would be a tough test, but if you ask Djokovic if he wants to play Zverev in the semifinals of RG I think he’d take it over the Sinner/Alcaraz options.

Djokovic might be at the tail end of his career, but it feels like the only thing holding him back from a deep run here is commitment. This is a guy who manufactures reasons to fight back against the crowd, against opponents, against public sentiment, and I don’t see why he won’t just show up here. Djokovic in 3.

Edit : Djokovic has crashed out of Geneva in 3 against Machac. Pls add 2 additional teaspoons of doubt and 1 pinch of hmm to your recipe.

Carballes Baena vs Lestienne :

Carballes Baena has been playing great lately, despite getting zipped in his last set against Baez in Geneva. He always pushes the pace, he rarely misses a backhand, and he defends admirably. His side of this match is fairly assured, so the question is how physically capable is Lestienne. Lestienne is coming in on a losing streak, and his inconsistency and frequent leg issues make it hard to really believe in his side. He’ll certainly push to entertain the home crowd, but it’s hard to really point to him bringing his best tennis here, and that’s probably what it will take to outlast RCB. RCB in 4-5.

Monfils vs Seyboth Wild :

Wild’s season of consistent tennis has continued, and here he has a chance to snag a big name. Monfils is still capable of playing top tier tennis, but he’s not as active on tour and he doesn’t seem to have that second gear all the time. In the past, Seyboth Wild would make enough errors to lose this, but the experience on tour seems to have settled him into good rhythms and he’s good enough on clay to work long points to his favor. Dismissing Monfils in front of a French crowd will be difficult, but it’s him who has to elevate his level coming into this match. If he does, I still think it’s an even contest. Seyboth Wild in 4.

Galan vs Musetti :

Galan can run for days, but Musetti (despite my Djokovic essay above) is in a pretty good spot in this draw. The flipside of believing Djokovic will engage here is observing that he hasn’t exactly been automatic this season, and he’s been less than active. He’s rolling in Geneva in terms of the scorelines, but there’ve been a lot of breaks. Musetti can elevate to a very high level. The guys like Sinner and Alcaraz and Djokovic are more offensively-minded and that makes it hard for him to beat them, but Galan is a good warmup match and Seyboth Wild/Monfils will have him at the very least primed for battle against Novak.

To be fair, Galan has not had a win of this caliber in a while, but Musetti throws in losses of this caliber quite often. He can struggle in early rounds, and losses to Navone, Atmane, and Passaro are right around the level that Galan can bring. Musetti just beat him 1,4 earlier this month, but I would not feel comfortable getting very specific about how this match will go. Musetti in 4 is what I’d expect, since Galan tends to elevate his play at majors.

Cerundolo vs Hanfmann :

Cerundolo is having a dismal season which would be considered a good one were expectations for him not so high. It feels like he’s having trouble putting the extra effort in to grind through matches against lower tier opponents. Here, he has a tough opener. Hanfmann hits huge, has been very active, has won a ton of matches on clay already this season, and he won their previous match in Vienna (withdrawal at a set apiece) so he is starting to see light at the end of the tunnel. Cerundolo just lost to Gaston, and basically no one on tour is giving up against Cerundolo right now. When you lose that aura, it gets really tough to win at tennis. Your opponents stop forcing shots because they believe you might miss, and they stop getting down on themselves when you have a lead because they’ve seen you give them back. I would expect this to go the full distance, and thinking about a fifth it’ll be close. Hanfmann’s serve means Cerundolo will have a tougher time holding, but Cerundolo’s footspeed and ability to hit big from deep in the court mean he might expose Hanfmann’s lateral movement late in the match. Cerundolo in 5 is what I expect. In 2/3 I like Hanfmann but I think Cerundolo is more likely to win a lopsided set or two.

O’Connell vs Misolic :

This is the start of what I expect to be a bunch of qualifier wins. Misolic finds his way on tour maybe once a year, but he’s a really solid player. He hits very hard, and that’s the entire plan. O’Connell can potentially outlast him as the step up to tour level is always tough, but Misolic’s game is better suited to these conditions and O’Connell plays to his opponents level quite often. The qualifying draw didn’t include the biggest names, but it was a tough grind and I think Misolic is at least 50/50 here. Misolic in 4-5.

Fognini vs Van De Zandschulp :

Another extremely close match. Fognini is better than Botic on clay, but he’s at the end of his career and his physical output isn’t the type to negate Van De Zandschulp’s offense. BVDZ seems to have found his game over the past month also, and since their previous meeting at RG (in 2022 qualifying) ended at 4-6, 7-6, 3-2 in Botic’s favor I don’t see this going in a straightforward manner. Fognini I suspect has to win this quick, because as error prone as Botic is he has the younger legs and will feel (from their last match) that he can outlast Fabio. Tennis is not automatic, but having an opponent who thinks they can win the long haul is very annoying. Van De Zandschulp in 5.

Cachin vs Paul :

Cachin is a great player but he’s struggled to find form. Paul is a terrific claycourter even though he’s not know for it, and his timing appeared in Rome. Sometimes his forehand and backhand timing are just gone and he shanks a ton of balls, but when he’s seeing the ball big he’s a top 10 player. Paul in 3-4.

Fritz vs Coria :

I generally would think Coria could outlast Fritz, but Taylor has mentally clocked in for the clay season. He talked about his game working on clay because he has a lot of variety, and I don’t have the heart to tell him that all of his success on tour is just from trying. When they kid actually digs in and tries his best, results come. Sometimes he slides and flails forehand into the net and sometimes he looks like a cat puppet that’s come to life and isn’t sure how to use arms yet, but he’s good at tennis and you can’t win em all. Coria seems tremendous one week and old the next, so his side is the piece that’s a question here. Good Coria get to a 4th set at least. Bad Coria loses by a single break in each set. Fritz in 3-4.

Lajovic vs Safiullin :

Safiullin has a ton of power but he’s not really doing much on clay yet. Lajovic moves the ball extremely well and is well-accustomed to long matches against big hitters. This is the Shapovalov Griekspoor of the first round. Yes one guy seems better but the other one can win just by maintaining a steady level, and that happens to be exactly what he does on tour. Lajovic in 4. Since Lajovic is a bit older I don’t think he can win clean, but Safiullin is still making errors on clay and that’s very costly.

Popyrin vs Kokkinakis :

Should be a spicy match. Popyrin has the much better resume on clay (former RG junior champion) and I think despite the errors his backhand is a bit better. The wrinkle is that Kokkinkais has won both their previous meetings (hardcourt only) and he actually went to play some challenger matches recently. Popyrin is on a 4 match losing streak, but they weren’t exactly easy matches (De Minaur, Medjedovic, Navone, Altmaier). I’d still lean into Popyrin here, but if Kokkinakis is winning it’s worth tuning in to see what the stylistic issue is that makes the h2h in his favor. Popyrin in 4-5.

Mannarino vs Zeppieri :

Here’s qualifier win #2. Zeppieri is lefty so Mannarino’s patterns are negated. He hits huge on the forehand and is very fast. He’d be a favorite against a lot of tour level guys, but Mannarino is the easiest first round in the draw. He just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough or with enough spin for it to travel through the court, so he is stuck out there. He doesn’t have to miss, but he can’t really score unless his opponent makes an error. So picture you reflecting the ball back slowly while your opponent throws a ton of junk on the ball and makes you deal with errant bounce after errant bounce; it just isn’t fun. Zeppieri in 3-4.

Etcheverry vs Cazaux :

Cazaux is returning from some injury issues, and Etcheverry beat him last year in straights on clay. Cazaux is one of the most exciting prospects on tour, but anyone coming onto clay not 100% physically is going to have a tough time against Etcheverry. Even slumping, the guy is still hitting big and winning matches, and the 3/5 format has proven very profitable for him since he has a ton of stamina. He’s not aggressive enough with his shot selection to blitz someone in the 2/3 format, but he’s always hitting to the open court with power (and safely) so it can be a grind playing him in a long match. Etcheverry in 3.

Rinderknech vs Walton :

Rinderknech has been playing well, and Walton has only 2 pro matches on clay. If this were hardcourt, I’d like Walton because he really has been crushing the hardcourt Challenger events. As it stands, Rinderknech should win. The only problem in being sure is that he just withdrew from his last match with an undisclosed illness, and several players fell ill this week so he might not be 100%. Playing tennis with a respiratory issue or a stomach virus can be really tough. Rinderknech in 3-4, but it isn’t safe.

Davidovich Fokina vs Vacherot :

Vacherot, who is Rinderknech’s cousin, has been tearing it up at the Challenger level. He has a good offense that lives behind a big serve. I don’t think he can beat ADF, but ADF is playing 2 on 1 most of the time. He loses to opponents in good form because his game includes so much variety that errors and indecision can sometimes abound, and he loses to himself because he is a cool guy and wants to do cool guy stuff. His underhand serves have become a running theme, and he’s in a sort of trap with them. He’s gone for the underhand so many times on big points that his opponents expect it, but now that they expect it, surely he won’t go for it, right? RIGHT? PLEASE DO NOT? It feels like on any break or set point the idea pops into his head, and the secondguessing that goes on in those few moments seems to always manifest in him impulsively going for it at the last second. It’s painful being a fan of his because the game is there for him to go on a deep run at the majors but the constant flow of offense that he attempts to create means he can lose to anyone.

Fokina lost to Medjedovic in a close battle in his last outting, and that’s a good enough level for him to win here. The problem is mainly confidence for him, and he’s very demonstrative/results oriented on court so Vacherot poses a tricky challenge. I think he’ll figure it out in the end. ADF in 4-5.

Mensik vs Ruud :

Sheesh. This right next to the worst first round draw (Zverev vs Nadal) so it might fly under the radar, but these guys both got screwed here. Ruud is still in Geneva, where he’s surviving 3 setters against some good caliber opponents (Ofner/Baez). The Ofner result actually makes me think Mensik has a chance, but Ruud and Mensik have a very similar approach and Ruud is stronger physically at this point. Mensik has a huge serve and a great forehand. His backhand is solid, but he doesn’t score with it a lot. He’s excellent at trading power, and he’s been fairly clutch on tour so far. That’ll be a key against Casper, because he tends to wind up in a lot of overtime sets and he experiences letdowns after winning them.

Ruud is one of the favorites to make the second week of this event, but he doesn’t eclipse the lower tier players. I think Mensik wins at least one set, but Ruud will outlast him. Ruud in 4-5.

Edit : This is odd. One site has Ruud playing Mensik, and one has him playing Meligeni Alves. He’ll beat either, but Mensik is obviously a much harder match so I referenced this one.

Zverev vs Nadal :

The one we’ve all been waiting for. This is not where Nadal fans would want him to land in the draw, but let me make a case for it to be the best draw for his chances. This is the shortest amount of rest Zverev has had since winning Rome so any lingering fatigue whether mental or physical is still there. In a first round Nadal will be at his best since metatarsal pain tends to be cumulative as wear and tear abounds. If Nadal can win, he will inherit Zverev’s draw which is pretty clean for the next few rounds. People were making “rigged” jokes, but it is the ideal situation for Nadal.

Tennis-wise, Zverev is a very likely candidate to win this tournament. When he hurt his ankle at this event in 2022, he was beating Nadal. He has always had trouble emotionally on court, but at the majors his solid level had been dragging him through the early rounds without much trouble for quite some time. Winning easy matches easily gets you a shot at big titles. If everything early is a 4-5 setter, you’re not winning Roland Garros or any other major. Zverev’s serving issues were his main problem on tour, and now those are mostly gone. His delivery looks more fluid, and at times his serve is unplayable. At this point, I think he gets 2-3 majors in his career because now his only real problem is his forehand, and even that is improving. Despite being a douchebag, the guy is putting in the work in the gym and it was only mental issues holding him back from winning.

I don’t think winning Rome was ideal for him because going back to back is really tough on tour. Everyone wants to win Roland Garros, but that little “the loss is okay, at least I won Rome, I can finally rest now” dialogue does creep in at times if you’re having a bad day out there, and Nadal can make you have a bad day. He also tugs at the heartstrings a little, I think we all want to see him play his heart out one last time without pain. As far as what we’ve seen recently, I don’t think Nadal is winning any titles. He’s been a little bit off with his shotmaking, he seems a step slower, and his physical issues don’t seem to have a solution. We all still hold our breath though, because the whole goal of him and his team for the past year has been to peak at this tournament. Whatever treatment is available, he’s using it for this next fortnight. Whatever stops there are, he’s pulling them out for one last hurrah. I’m excited for this match, and I think a first-round exit is likely but this is really the ideal draw for him if you want to see him make a deep run. Zverev in 3-4. I hope I am wrong.

Goffin vs Mpetshi Perricard :

It’s funny how things change on tour. A few months ago Goffin was showing a fine resurgence in qualifying and in Challenger events. Perricard was still a solid offense, but wasn’t having much impact. This past week you could have applied the same thing, but this week in Lyon Perricard has won a bunch of solid matches. Perricard so far has beaten Sonego and a very in-form Gaston and the Lyon native finds himself in his first 250 semifinals. He has a big serve, a nice one-handed backhand, and he’s hitting clean right now with good depth. Goffin was sharp in qualifying in Geneva, but he disappeared in round one against Moreno De Alboran where he was largely outhit. I expect this to be close but Perricard’s level seems a little higher than Goffin’s. Rally ball errors and fatigue from Goffin are just a little odd, so barring Perricard being exhausted by the end of his Lyon run, I think he can win in 4-5.

Hijikata vs Darderi :

Hijikata seems best on hardcourt and Darderi has cemented his spot on tour purely through clay-court results. Rinky is capable of playing high level tennis but Darderi is a bit of a wall when he’s playing well. This should be straightforward, although Darderi doesn’t really hit huge enough to ensure a low score. Darderi in 3.

McDonald vs Griekspoor :

Griekspoor’s game seems like it would translate well to clay but his particular swing production doesn’t seem to hit through the court very well. As it stands, he is outlasting his opponent in most of the clay matches he wins, and I feel like he’s playing a little too deep in the court at times. Despite Mcdonald usually showing up in the first round after lengthy layoffs, this is a good draw for Tallon. McDonald is not really great on clay, he’s not particularly active, and his backhand has always been a liability. Griekspoor in 4.

Khachanov vs Nagal :

Sumit Nagal has really continued to progress which is really a good sign. He’s a clay specialist and was winning most of his early tour matches with good defense, so him winning at tour level is impressive. Here he’s playing a sort of bigger version of himself which feels impossible, but Khachanov is occasionally a slow starter so I would expect rallies to be competitive. Khachanov should win in 3 since he has a big edge on serve and his results at majors have been pretty consistent, but it’s hard to hit through someone constantly when you’re the one who’s supplying all the offense. Khachanov in 3-4.

Giron vs Kovalik :

Kovalik lost in the finals of qualifying to my main man Burruchaga, but he’s playing good ball and this is a winnable match. Giron is faster and has a great forehand, but his clay-court prowess is not there. Kovalik hopefully is not tired and the day or two of rest let him play his best. He used to be a regular on tour and the fact that he’s still grinding on the Challenger tour is pretty cool to me. Some guys might retire but seeing someone who loves the game at any level is pretty cool. The question here is whether Kovalik can outlast Giron, because he’s 100% better than him on clay but he’s been playing lower level opponents for a while. In 2/3 I like Kovalik. This might be tricky though. Kovalik in 3-4 or Giron in 5.

Cobolli vs Medjedovic :

Nobody is looking to play Medjedovic in the first round, but Cobolli is a good candidate to capitalize on his weakness. There is no clear prediction available here because of the equation at play. Hamad plays extremely strong when he’s fresh and he has enough power to hit through anyone outside the top 40. It reminds me of Jack Draper a bit, because on the opposite side of that he experiences fatigue issues and frequent withdrawals. Those are getting less frequent (the same as Jack), but Cobolli’s team will know that he can win a long match. That has been the hallmark of his recent success on tour, so I think Medjedovic needs to sprint through this one. I don’t think it’s possible, and after playing 3 rounds of qualifying the edge starts to go to Cobolli here. I’m expecting Medjedovic to win the early exchanges, and for the match to go to Cobolli in 5.

Evans vs Rune :

Rune has settled into that second tier of title contenders. He’s always discussed, but only as a darkhorse candidate. He can play the type of tennis in long matches and big moments that make you believe, but he struggles to quickly beat the guys ranked below him. He’s having a decent month, clearing the first round in most tournaments (which means third round results since he always has a bye), but has lost to Baez, Struff, and Griekspoor. These aren’t bad losses, but they’re matches he’s expected to win.

I find Rune’s play to flow between impatience, and safe. He’s very willing to pull the trigger during points and go for immediate offense and big serves, but this gives weaker opponents a chance to steal sets when he plays a bad service game. His fallback is to defend and try to outlast his opponents, but he tends to lose length on his groundstrokes when this happens and professional tennis players have done enough drills in their lifetime to win those points a good chunk of the time. His transition between modes reminds me of Gauff a bit. She aims high with her offense at 0-0, then wins the match with consistency and lockdown defending if errors abound. Her defending doesn’t sacrifice pace and length though, so it works.

The issue with Rune’s game are things he can work out, and Evans hasn’t been at his best on clay historically. This is a winnable match, and Rune will likely have Cobolli in round two so he’ll need to find a steady level of tennis to win. Rune in 3-4.

De Minaur vs Michelsen :

Michelsen being an American is sort of assumed to be subpar on clay, but he’s showing signs of life. He beat Fritz and Kovacevic in Geneva, and played a close match against Machac. He’s a bit slow with his lateral movement, so I don’t see much hope of him beating De Minaur. Alex’s flat hitting is not great for clay, and Michelsen beat him in Los Cabos earlier this year, so this could take some unexpected time. Hard to see ADM losing more than a single set though, and clay is about work and focus which are two things he brings extremely well in the majors. ADM in 3-4.

Bautista-Agut vs Munar :

Munar is probably expected to win this one based on the stages of their career these two are in, but RBA still has a shot. He’s been pretty competitive in Madrid, and just won a few matches in a Challenger in Bordeaux. He lost in 3 to Pedro Martinez, and that’s just about the level he needs to bring to beat Munar. These two are both very well-coached and they stick to the traditional shot patterns of the Spanish federation. This means they’re very likely to play long rallies and read each other well. RBA leads the h2h but those matches were in 2019. Errors have started to creep into RBA’s game, and he never really was the most challenging opponent on clay because he hits fairly flat.

All Munar clay matches are tough for this reason : Munar is excellent but doesn’t hit or serve big enough to put anyone away. This should be a long and challenging match for both. Munar in 4-5.

Struff vs Burruchaga :

Tough draw for Burru since Struff is in good form. Burruchaga usually wins by outlasting his opponents and he moves the ball well but doesn’t really hit huge. He’ll profit from Struff’s over-aggressive shot selection and his unforced errors, but Struff will have ample time to get his serve and forehand going and I think he’ll wear down the less experienced opponent in the 3/5 format. Struff in 3-4.

Bublik vs Barrere :

On the tour, off the tour, idk. Barrere is like the dog that wants to go outside and immediately wants to come back inside. He’ll slump for a while and then show up to major qualifying and roast everyone then lose first round for a few weeks then win a Challenger. I guess professional tennis is hard, but it makes it tough to gauge how he’ll do here. Bublik is admittedly only interested in tennis for the attention and the money, so at a major you expect a good bit of motivation. He’s not at his best on clay, but Barrere went 3 and I think the matchup suits Bublik because Barrere is a very clean hitter of the ball. Bublik in 4.

Novaone vs Carreno-Busta :

Pablo entering on a protected ranking makes me nervous he’s thinking about retiring. He was one of the best players at majors and while he never really seemed like he’d win one, he was starting to look like the Ferrer of his generation. He hasn’t played and I don’t expect him to be at his best. Navone is probably in the running for Rookie of the Year on tour, and if this is close at all I think he can isolate Pablo’s backhand and put him through a long day. I’m very hopeful that PCB is back, but I’m nervous he’s opting into a major right away to take a few retirement paychecks. Navone in 3.

Borges vs Machac :

Machac is still in the Geneva event but he’s playing solid and it’s unlikely he wins his next round (plays Djokovic), so he should start out as the favorite in this one. Borges has shown a good ability to find a rhythm in a tough match, but I think Machac might be too good of a frontrunner here. He has a better serve, and a bigger forehand. His backhand can be a liability but if he’s up a set or two it’ll be real hard for Borges to come back. Machac in 4-5.

Kecmanovic vs Monteiro :

Monteiro found his range at the perfect time and has cemented his spot on tour for another year. Playing Miomir Kecmanovic first is a great draw for him also. Kecmanovic can play high level tennis but his struggles with consistency have plagued him for 4-5 seasons now. Monteiro is sharp and I think he can win this. Monteiro in 4-5.

Koepfer vs Medvedev :

A few seasons ago Daniil would lose this match. It was never his best surface stylistically, but most of Medvedev’s claycourt struggles were a lack of effort. If he actually digs in and defends, it’s very difficult to hit through him. Koepfer can compete at this level, but he probably can’t close out. I’m not implying he can win sets, but if he breaks and goes up 5-4, nobody is sure the set is over. Medvedev’s serving is much more effective, and his adept play at net means that Koepfer has to do a lot of heavy work from the baseline to win. I don’t think Med’s backhand will break down, and he has a very good draw here so I think he’ll be willing to put the work in. Medvedev in 4.

Rublev vs Daniel :

Taro Daniel is not at the level required to beat Rublev. He does have a clay win against him, but that was in 2016. Rublev in 3. Maybe Taro competes well here but I don’t see any way he wins against a healthy Rublev.

Martinez vs Tirante :

Pedro Martinez’s resurgence makes him a favorite here, and Tirante is on a skid of 5 losses in a row. He has a lot of power and a good serve, and tons of experience on clay, but it feels like his backhand is a liability and Martinez is in slightly better form. Martinez in 4. Everyone is going to pick Martinez here but his stellar play has been marked by winning matches, not winning them easily.

Nardi vs Muller :

This is a great matchup. Two extremely disciplined tacticians with bright careers ahead playing on a huge stage. Nardi’s year has been pretty much defined by his win against Djokovic in Indian Wells. He’s experienced on clay, but he doesn’t hit big enough to really thrive on tour just yet. Muller has been getting a lot of respect on tour for over a year now, and the results are starting to flow. He hits very smooth off both wings and he’s pretty fast. I’m a little confused on why he got a wildcard when he’s currently ranked 90th, but I guess the Rome quarterfinal points just bumped him up to 90th so he would have needed one when they were announced. I guess I’m not confused anymore, so I could delete that sentence, but I am extremely lazy.

Nardi won both of their previous meetings, and both were on clay. I would expect that neither player can hit through the other, nor will there be a lot of unreturned serves. Neither have a big hole in their game, and while I think Muller is slightly more physically dominant, the h2h is hard to ignore. Nardi in 5.

Arnaldi vs Fils :

Another great match between two great prospects. Fils seems like he has a higher ceiling than Arnaldi, but he’s been a bit too aggressive on clay. The tour is a strange place, and clay is a mental challenge. If you get impatient on the court, and miss rally balls, people are not going to miss against you. A few losses in the Golden Swing (South American clay) have given people hope that they can hang on against Fils, and he’s been struggling a bit as a result. He’s still a tremendous athlete, and he has the power and skill to beat anyone on tour, but he’s in a Cerundolo type situation now where people think he’s a flight risk. Arnaldi certainly is consistent enough to get the job done, and the only explanation I could give for Fils winning here is that he really is just going to focus on training to peak at the majors. I expect Arnaldi to be the more stable performer here, and for Fils to really thrive in the grass/hardcourt events to come. Arnaldi in 4.

Humbert vs Sonego :

Nobody knows who’s going to win this. Sonego managed to lose to Perricard and Passaro last week, and Humbert went down against Koepfer. Sonego’s forehand/dropshot combo is excellent, but his backhand is a target. He plays very aggressive, and it costs him at times. Rushing through matches on tour is tough because everyone is pretty close in terms of level. Humbert was playing great against Koepfer and then completely decelerated on his forehand wing. It was visible to announcers and to Koepfer, who started playing a bit safe and was able to get the win. Humbert’s timing struggling, and Sonego going about 50% in the win loss column recently makes this difficult to call. Add in that these two have gone 2-2 in their recent history and it becomes hard to gauge. I think Humbert in 4-5 is the most likely outcome, but neither are at the top of their game for this one.

Zhang vs Vukic :

Vukic is exceeding expectations, but now he’s on most people’s radar. Everyone gives it their all on tour, but if you’re playing well, people tend to perform better against you. It’s like how Serena quipped that everyone plays their best tennis against her. People know what the workload looks like, and if they know you’re in form they have no illusions of an easy day. In any event, I think the upsets are over for a little while for Vukic. That’s risky to say since Zhang will be favored here, and since he has been wildly inconsistent this season. Here’s my math on this one. Zhang and Vukic were having very similar seasons leading into the clay swing, but Zhang just won 4 matches in a row in Rome, and beating Shelton/Monteiro/Galan is good enough for me to assume he beats Vukic. RG is basically the same conditions as Rome in terms of court-speed so players who fare well in Rome tend to carry it over. Zhang in 3-4.

Djere vs Altmaier :

Djere hasn’t been that active, and after a withdrawal in Monte Carlo this is his first match back. I don’t expect him to be sharp here, but Altmaier has lost 4 in a row. Kind of a fortuitous draw for whoever manages to get through. Their only previous meeting in 2021 went to Altmaier in 3, and I somewhat expect that Djere’s rust will result in another close loss. With Tsitsipas in the next round, this is a good and bad draw. Altmaier in 4-5.

Fucsovics vs Tsitsipas :

Tsitsipas is many things. He would explain them all to you, but you would not understand. This season has seen another strong commitment to trying to play in a confrontational manner from him, and it hasn’t really paid off. Glaring at his opponent, hitting almost all shots at net at his opponent’s body, and storming around like a young Danielle Collins have been coupled with a constant struggle to keep his backhand in play. Despite these struggles, one of the things Tsitsipas remains is a threat to win this tournament. Clay gives him time to get set for his one-hander, and the 3/5 format makes his stamina and footwork a big factor. He’s serving well, and he remains the second best on tour (after Sinner) at defending to the forehand side. He’s able to hit this shot cleanly cross-court for winners quite often, and this means he can hang in the backhand corner and hide that weakness more than most (as opposed to someone like Berrettini who can get caught out there).

Tsitsipas is well-rested for this, there isn’t a lot of pressure on him, and he’s had adequate prep. He has the experience in big moments to know what is required, and a lot of the top competition (that he cannot beat) are in questionable form/fitness. Fucsovics is a good baseliner, but Stefanos is better in every department. He has a good draw and a good chance to go deep here. This feels like him and Ruud’s best chance to win a major. Tsitsipas in 3-4.

Shelton vs Gaston :

Shelton has been surprisingly good on clay, and Gaston just played some of the best tennis we’ve seen from him last week. This should be a great matchup of contrasting styles. Gaston doesn’t have a lot of power (this week he swung so hard on some forehands that he went flying off the ground) and mostly wins behind the dropshot/lob combos. He has great hands and good instincts, and beating him requires a lot of running. Shelton is pretty quick moving forward and he has a lot of pace on his shots so it might be tough for Gaston to get his offense going. Shelton also has a huge serve and Hugo isn’t the best returner due to his small wingspan.

The Shapovalov pattern of going huge on every shot and spraying errors has sort of crept into Shelton’s game over the past season, but his service motion is way more reliable so it hasn’t hurt his results directly. It has caused him to lose a lot of early sets, and I think it’s unlikely that this goes to him in straights. Shelton in 4-5.

Nishikori vs Diallo :

Entering on a protected ranking and getting a qualifier is pretty lucky. Diallo won’t hate his luck either drawing a guy who doesn’t really exist anymore on tour. Diallo has a great serve and good power, and that should be enough to beat a rusty legend whose main struggle was fatigue when he was on tour. Diallo will know that dragging this out is his best bet, and Nishikori will look to make it all about the backhand exchanges. Hard to see Nishikori winning at this stage, but Diallo is generally at the Challenger level so experience could be big. Diallo in 3-4 tbh, I don’t think we’re going to see a big Nishikori resurgence with the volume of tennis he’s playing (or lack thereof).

Purcell vs Squire :

Another spot both will be pleased with. Squire was a pretty surprising qualifier, and I’m not that familiar with his game. Beating Vavassori is a good win, so I expect this to be close. I’d probably have Vavassori beating Purcell, who isn’t really at his best on clay, but there’s not a whole lot of data to indicate that Squire can win at the tour level, and Purcell has found a way to win sets/matches all season against good names. Purcell in 5.

Nishioka vs Auger-Aliassime :

Nishioka just withdrew from Lyon, and he’s not thriving on clay. FAA had a long and very publicized slump, but clay seems to have snapped him out of it. He’s still error prone and Nishi will make life difficult on his backhand, but Felix’s serve should carry him through this one. FAA in 3-4.

Korda vs Mayot :

Korda is Kyrgios without the bad attitude. He’s really good, but you cannot predict his effort level at all week to week. I enjoy watching him play, but it seems like he’s always doing hitting drills with a training partner rather than trying to crush his opponent. I know professional tennis is tough, but it’s pretty clear at times that his passive play is hurting him. Mayot should never win a set against him, but here I have to legitimately worry he might win the match. Mayot is the polar opposite of Korda in terms of approach. He goes as big as he can on every serve and every shot, and he tries frantically out there. He’s not capable of beating Korda, but Korda is capable of freezing in the moment and letting this get close. I like Korda to win in 4 (splitting the opening sets) but the guy has just become too unpredictable for expectations.

Ruusuvuori vs Kwon :

Kwon has been inactive, Ruusuvuori withdrew in Geneva with an illness. Ruusuvuori is a better player but clay isn’t his forte and he has regressed from the form that got him on tour. Maybe I’m asking too much from these guys, but it feels like Kwon has a chance here even though he’s been injured and off tour for much of the past few seasons. Ruusuvuori in 4.

Draper vs De Jong :

Jesper De Jong is right on the cusp of breaking onto the tour, but he needs a few good draws to make that happen. He plays a bit like Rune and sports big power in a small frame. He can compete with Draper, but Jack’s offense is a bit more reliable and De Jong does go through periods where he’s just grinding away from the baseline. This is fine but Draper has been working with his team on shortening points so he can make more title runs and avoid injuries. Draper on clay is not great but he should win in 4.

Alcaraz vs JJ Wolf :

First look at cool arm sleeve Alcaraz. Since he hasn’t been playing, I don’t expect him to be sharp, and when he’s not in a rhythm he sprays a lot of errors. Plan B against Wolf is good enough, and I’d expect Alcaraz to go heavily with the dropshot in early rounds to preserve his arm for the tough matches. Draper in the 2nd round might be really tricky if he doesn’t find a rhythm here, so I would hope (for the tournament’s sake) that Carlitos plays well here by the end of the match. Alcaraz in 3-4. (I know a lot of people will be tempted to think that he auto-wins because Wolf isn’t great on clay and is in a slump but this is a freeroll for Wolf and Alcaraz’s goals at this event don’t necessarily require him to zip the guy).

Hurkacz vs Mochizuki :

Just when I thought I was out … they pull me back shin … taro … …. mochizuki. Mochizuki is one of the most fun players on tour to watch. His game is just wild. His backhand is really difficult to read, he’s an aggressive returner despite being only 5’9”, and he won as an underdog in every round in qualifying. Can he beat Hurkacz? Probably not, but he’s best on hardcourt so him getting some ranking momentum for the NA swing is excellent. Hurkacz in 3-4.

Moreno De Alboran vs Nakashima :

This might be one of the best matches of the first round, even thought these guys won’t factor in the tournaments outcome that much. Alboran has been hitting huge and winning a bunch of matches on clay, and Nakashima has basically gotten himself back on tour via nonstop grinding on the European clay circuit (Challenger level). Alboran hits bigger than Nakashima but Brandon probably has more experience in these big moments and in long matches. This could really go either way but I expect Alboran to have more control early in the match. He hits huge and serves well, and Nakashima is the type to wear you down. I feel compelled to type Nakashima in 5 but it’s based more on his recent wins against De Jong and Navone than it is on how I think they match up. Really too close to call, but Moreno De Alboran in 4 or Nakashima in 5. I think Nakashima will improve as the match goes on.

Van Assche vs Shapovalov :

Shapo is showing signs of life and winning a few good matches, but this is a tough spot for him. The crowd will be behind Van Assche, and the players who’ve outlasted Denis recently make me think LVA can do something simmilar. Van Assche has a very solid backhand and is quick around the court. He gets outhit quite often, but seems to be able to find his way into a third set. Shapovalov will definitely win the exchanges when he’s able to find forehands inside-out since LVA tends to infuse height rather than pace on the run to his forehand wing, but I think Van Assche will know that he’s in for the long haul here. Crowd + a good showing against Baez + Shapovalov not really having a clear head out there make this closer than it should be. Shapovalov in 5.

Tiafoe vs Bellucci :

Does Tiafoe play tennis anymore? I know he’s still capable of some high-level stuff, but his timing and shot selection make me think he’s a little bit burnt out. Hopefully he regroups for the grass season where his skill and athleticism can make a big difference, and maybe he focuses here since it’s a major, but this feels like another spot where the qualifier can win. Bellucci is an extremely talented lefty and though he doesn’t travel a lot he might have to after this event. Tiafoe in round one and LVA/Shapo waiting in round two make for 2 huge but winnable rounds for him. He’s more comfortable on the court right now than Tiafoe, and his main goal here will be to keep Frances out of rhythm. This is the same matchup that Tiafoe just lost against Koepfer a few weeks ago, a solid lefty sticking to traditional patterns and making Tiafoe win behind his backhand. Frances has a cannon of a serve and can elevate to win this, but I think it’s 50/50 in the first few sets. Bellucci in 4 or Tiafoe with the 5 set heartbreaker.

Tabilo vs Bergs :

Bergs is getting very close to the tour. He’s winning long matches and he’s improving constantly. Unfortunately, Tabilo is one of the sharpest players right now and his offense is good enough to hit through Bergs’ staunch defending. Tabilo in 3.

Thompson vs Marterer :

I’ve avoided mentioning odds in this one, but it should be noted that oddsmakers and the ‘ol ELO have rated Marterer highly for quite some time. He’s a powerful lefty with a solid serve, and most of this losses are close matches. Getting across the finish line is an art, and he doesn’t seem to have it yet. This is the best draw he could hope for, since Thompson has a very flat backhand and he isn’t great on clay. Marterer has to win this match. He’s currently ranked 99 and this would really go a long way to him playing carefree on tour for the rest of the year. Considering some of the qualifiers (ranked in that 100-150 range) are going to win a round or two at this event, him getting direct entry into the US Open might depend on this. For a lefty on clay, this match is simple. Thompson can drag things out and he serves well at times, but Marterer can isolate his backhand and win a long one. Marterer in 4.

Maroszan vs Kukushkin :

Cool to see the guy who hits the flattest ball on tour and who got pushed out of the top 100 somehow having a resurgence on clay. Kukushkin will make this interesting and there will be a lot of highlights, but Maroszan is at his best on clay and his propensity for offense only gets assisted when trading sets early isn’t as much of a dilemma. Kukushkin will make him play a bunch of balls to win this so it’s a good look at Maro’s composure, but I think he’s good enough to win this offensive duel. Maroszan in 4.

Kovacevic vs Dimitrov :

This’ll be fun. Two one-handers who are pretty solid from the baseline, on a surface that neither one really prefers. Kovacevic has been winning some good matches at the lower tier, but there’s not a lot to indicate that he’s ready to snag Dimitrov. Grigor is having one of his best seasons in terms of consistency, and I almost believe. Dimitrov in 3-4.

Jarry vs Moutet :

Loudest crowd of the first round will be present in this one. Moutet behaves like he ate a ghost pepper and is trying to pretend it’s not bothering him. He’s volatile, he’s hilarious, and he’s willing to go for anything at any time. In the past I think he could have gotten this done, but Jarry’s baseline game has drastically improved. He takes more measured swings, he’s capable of driving his backhand both directions, and his serve is still one of the top 20 deliveries on tour on clay. Hometown crowd and Moutet’s experience can push this to a 4th, but I think Jarry’s power and comfort at net will let him apply a lot of pressure to Corentin’s second serve. Jarry in 4.

Shevchenko vs Karatsev :

I don’t really want Karatsev to lose most of the time, because when he’s on his game is so wildly entertaining. He can just take the racquet out of anyone’s hands, but right now he’s a little off his game. The errors will cost him against Shevchenko, but if Aslan can find his range he should win. Karatsev basically hasn’t beaten anyone since his return to the tour aside from McDonald (who took more time off than him) so I’m not expecting much until he wins a match, or even a set. Shevchenko in 4.

Atmane vs Ofner :

Atmane pulled off some heroic play in Madrid and it’s cool to see him get a wildcard. He’s a crafty lefty whose defense I don’t really believe in, but winning matches on tour is enough to change my opinion. Atmane would probably be the favorite for me heading into this had Ofner not found a pretty solid level against Ruud in round one of Geneva. I think this is destined for a marathon because while both players are capable of winning a set, I don’t think either has shown the type of level necessary to blank their opponent for a long stretch. The crowd could be a big factor here but Ofner probably has a bit more experience and a bit more power in a long match. Tricky spot but Ofner in 5.

Baez vs Heide :

I really didn’t expect Gustavo Heide to qualify, and the manner in which he smoked his opponents was even more impressive. I’ve seen him play in the South American Challenger circuit a bit and I felt like he was a servebot, but his baseline game has gotten a lot better. He has huge power in his forehand and he’s covering the court better than before. Picture a slower Maroszan basically. I think Baez will be able to outlast him but this might involve more sets than people want it to. Baez had a good showing in Geneva so I think his semi-slump is ending at the right time, and luckily so because Heide could snag him if he was still making a bunch of errors. Heide is worth watching in this one, but it’s a really unfortunate draw for him. Baez in 4.

Norrie vs Kotov :

Cam Norrie’s style is bad enough on clay to give Kotov a shot, and Cam Norrie’s defense is frustrating enough to outlast Kotov’s stamina issues. Pavel is one of the more visibly out of shape guys on tour, and his power and shot selection make up for it. Against Norrie, he’ll have to really work to score points and I think Cam will be disciplined enough to work the points and wear him down. Norrie in 4-5.

Wawrinka vs Murray :

This is actually pretty cool, and one you’d want tickets for. These are the guys who stole majors from the big 3, and their mobility is gone but they’re still playing high level tennis. Since both are a little slow, I think this will be a really entertaining match with a high level of skill and variety on display. Murray hasn’t really changed his game up much, so Stan should be favored here. Wawrinka has stamina issues, but in the first round his power and serving are still there. By the way this is their 24th meeting on tour, dating back to 2006. Wawrinka has won the last few on clay, and I think he gets through here. Wawrinka in 4.

Gasquet vs Coric :

Coric always seems like he’s going to win, but all the discipline and short haircuts in the world don’t seem to translate into results. This is a pretty easy match for him, since Gasquet can’t really run anymore, but Borna will find a way to make it difficult, and Gasquet at the end of a close set is a really tough opponent. He has every shot, and there is no downside to him going for broke. I think it’s Coric in 4, but if he gets the first set he should end it in straight sets.

Eubanks vs Sinner :

This will be our first look at Jannik’s hip. Part of me wonders if the Sinner/Alcaraz camps have started to emulate Djokovic/Nadal in terms of their press. Nobody can say for sure what’s going on, but using an injury to skip warmup events and get extra training/rest time is a good plan to snag a major. How many times have we seen Nadal and Djokovic sporting a potential issue in the month before a major, which then doesn’t seem to be a factor while they win a big title. It’s paranoia to some degree, but gamesmanship exists on tour and watching your opponents grind through a bunch of Masters 1000s while you prep and recuperate feels like it would be an advantage. Everyone comes into the start of the year playing near their best, and that’s due to the months off to work out and heal. The tour is a grind and time off/prioritizing events is a must to max out results.

Sinner should roll here if he’s healthy enough to play, but Eubanks is actually playing some decent tennis on clay so at least one set might go to overtime, or even in his direction since Sinner has classically started majors slowly. Sinner in 3-4.