2024 Roland Garros Men's Semifinals
Zverev vs Ruud :
This isn’t the Djokovic Zverev battle many fans were hoping for, but this will be a very good match. Zverev is on an 11 match win streak, and Casper Ruud is basically the best clay-courter ranked outside the top 5 for many seasons now. Last season’s meeting went to Ruud in a lopsided straight set match, but this is a much different version of Zverev. He’s serving well again, his baseline game is somewhat passive but very consistent, and his confidence is high which matters a lot for someone with a fragile ego.
Ruud received a walkover from Djokovic in the quarterfinals, so the fatigue concerns were looming for Zverev. He’d just played two 5-setters in a row, and a clash against a speedy player like De Minaur seemed like it could last many hours. Instead, Zverev won in straight sets. It took 3 hours, and it wasn’t a very convincing win, but him getting off the court in the minimum time is a big boost to his chances here. Playing Ruud is something that most of the real major contenders have navigated successfully, but it takes a long time to do so. Casper is one of the more professional players on tour and has been for a long time. He’s very diligent about his shot selection, his execution at the beginning of a match tends to be excellent, and he is constantly working to improve where he can. It’s this work ethic and professionalism that has gotten him to the finals of three majors already (2022 French & US Open, and 2023 French Open) despite him not really having the hugest game.
His serve has improved, but he has to earn most of his points from the baseline. His forehand is excellent, but he tends to have tough matches against many players on tour that other players in the top 10 run through with their heavy firepower. People may think his finals were foregone conclusions, but him getting there is a testament to hard work. And cool names. Also sometimes he goes JAAAAAAAAAAA!!!! in people’s faces when he wins (possibly).
Where the ball is will make all the difference in this match. If they’re hitting forehands, Ruud will dominate. If they’re hitting backhands, Zverev will win. It really is that simple. Zverev’s loss of pace and location on his forehand is a well-documented and somewhat continuous phenomenon. It’s not a huge liability, but for a top 5 player it’s one of the worst forehands of all time. Ruud brings along the opposite problem. He can generate some great spin and good down the line drives with his backhand, but overall it never looks like a swing he has total confidence in. They both appear to be thinking about the technique in big moments, and while that’s a good method to use when learning a swing, it leads to constant deceleration on court. A bigger problem with guiding yourself through the technique at the pro level is that it telegraphs the shot. It is obvious when Zverev is going down the line and cross, and the same is fairly true for Ruud’s backhand.
Zverev’s talent and ability have been slowly dragging him towards the top of the game for a long time. He has good instincts at net, and he moves forward deceptively well for a tall guy. He has a tremendous serve, but the technique and issues with double faults held him back for a long time. He has had a top 5 backhand on tour for almost his entire career, despite being somewhat passive with it in big moments. He was sidelined by injury for almost a whole season, but he’s one of the harder workers in the gym and has gotten back into tremendous shape. He has played some extended matches already, and is barely sweating or breathing hard by the end of them. The knock against him had been that his passive shot selection, his nerves in big moments, and his aversion to trying hard when things are against him would hold him back, but he is just too good for most people to profit off that so his recent seasons have seen an almost constant improvement in his results at majors. That ability to consistently beat the lower ranked players is a great thing to develop. Zverev can get outdueled early in a match, but his level remains steady throughout and many players have won the first and lost in a lopsided 4 sets.
Despite Zverev being the opposite of a fan favorite, there is no bad outcome here. People may not want to see Zverev win, but he matches up better against Alcaraz or Sinner and will create the closest finals. The flipside, is that seeing Ruud defeat someone who is considered a villain by many at this point is excellent TV. With the big 3 out of the tournament finally, Ruud making a finals can be seen as a fresh start rather than “another 2nd place finish”. He played well in his last round against Fritz, and Ruud’s serving has been a little better than usual this week. My worry about Casper winning is that we haven’t really seen the best of Zverev yet. He tends to play to the level of his competition at times, and the peak level he can reach is very high. Unrealized potential is a story that has followed him, but his match against Medvedev at the AO is one of the best serving performances I’ve seen on tour since Isner or Gilles Muller were on tour. The ability to go big on a key break point is huge in men’s tennis, and Zverev has shown the ability to dial it up in a big moment in a way that Ruud might not.
Zverev’s passive/pushy play have let weaker players compete evenly with him, and Ruud’s forehand should be able to do damage if he’s getting the time to get a full swing. When his opponents return his serve, one of my gripes about Zverev is that he doesn’t score that often off of his second shot. He almost winds up resetting the play rather than making an error. Here, I wonder if Ruud’s deep return position won’t negate this a bit. If you’re deep in the court against Zverev’s serve, you’ll get more in play, but the odds of him guiding an angle on the second shot and coming to net go way up. With his brother Mischa in his camp (an exclusive S&V player), he’ll have at least one voice urging him to get to net against Ruud’s deep position, especially on his backhand returns where he’s more likely to shank the ball against a moving target. I’ve watched Alcaraz/Nadal struggle with Zverev a bit because of their deep return position, and while hanging in on return isn’t comfortable for players, Zverev’s particularly conservative approach to tennis means any returns make you 50/50 in the play if you’re already on the baseline.
Clay is letting Zverev outlast his opponents, and that’s sort of what I expect to cost him and benefit him here. The fact that he can have a sitter forehand a few feet inside the baseline and not really be a favorite to end the point is a significant issue, and I’ve watched him go safe on the inside in forehand constantly. Against Ruud, he’s going to get punished for this. The question is whether Ruud can beat him with just a forehand. It’s going to take a lot of hitting and Zverev’s passivity doesn’t mean he can’t defend. He’ll have a few more easy holds of serve due to his height, and Zverev’s backhand is a wall. We’ve seen the top players isolate Ruud’s backhand and outlast him, and that’s what I expect here. Zverev is dense enough about decision-making on court to guarantee trouble here, but him beating Rune and ADM was good prep for this match and he’ll be hungry to win this event after suffering such a traumatic injury in his previous outing. Zverev in 5.
Alcaraz vs Sinner :
I have a feeling that the Alcaraz Sinner matchups are something I’m going to tune in for for a very long time. There have been many phenoms on the tour, but these two have completely lived up to and then surpassed the expectations. Alcaraz has already won two majors, and he’s established himself at the top of the tour. Despite a recent proclivity for impatient offense and heat checks, his results have consistently kept him ranked in the top 3 and he’s a favorite in pretty much every match he plays. Jannik Sinner’s stamina had been a question, but he is having the best season of anyone on tour, claimed the Australian Open with wins against Djokovic and Medvedev, and on Monday he’ll achieve the #1 ranking on tour for the first time. We’re starting to feel the reality of the big 3 making their way off tour, but these players are stepping up in a major way to fill that void.
Since these players are at such a high level, it’s hard for me to really point to huge edges. Alcaraz is thought of as the more comfortable player on clay, but Sinner has never struggled on the surface at all and one of his first RG appearances featured him playing peak Nadal very closely. Alcaraz’s forehand is one of the biggest on tour, but Sinner trades power and his forehand might be even better at counterpunching. Sinner’s backhand seems more stable, and he goes down the line with fewer errors, but Alcaraz is crushing his backhand this week and in big moments he seems to have an extra bit of consistency to it. This match will ultimately go to the player who plays the big points better. We’ve watched big 3 clashes for years now where the player who’s serving doesn’t seem to matter, and sets are traded via tremendous play rather than slumps. That’s what I’m expecting here, and it’s one of the first days this fortnight that I’m not complaining about having to set an early alarm.
Jannik and Carlitos both entered this even with injury questions, but only Alcaraz has looked 100% to me thus far. Sinner is cruising, but he looks a tiny bit slower than usual. That can be costly against Alcaraz, because you’d expect these two to have extended rallies and play at a very fast pace. Sinner’s consistency and ability to reflect power will help a great deal, but it’s possible that Alcaraz will be able to wear Sinner down a bit more than usual. Alcaraz was unreal against Tstitsipas, who came in in excellent form, so he sticks in my mind as the favorite. I want to say Sinner couldn’t have beaten Tsitsipas in 3, but honestly he might have. These two have elevated above the rest of the tour right now, and by not carrying any significant weaknesses, there really isn’t any way to attack them.
I often get excited when I realize there isn’t some overarching strategy to beat an opponent. It doesn’t make the match easy, but it means you just have to try to play your best and hit whatever shot feels right in the situation. This produces the highest level matches, and that’s what we’re going to get here. There is no quick path through either of these players, and it won’t be errors that decides this match. Alcaraz is hitting a bit bigger thus far, but Sinner has been a wall. Unstoppable force vs immovable object. Carlitos vs Jannitos. Plants vs Zombies. Etc.
In the end, I think Alcaraz is more physically capable of going the distance here. I thought this last year against Djokovic also, so take that with a grain of salt. He’ll have to temper his aggression because the ball will come back a lot more than it did in previous rounds. Tsitsipas gave up on his backhand almost immediately. Sinner’s doesn’t break down no matter what you throw at it. If Alcaraz can utilize the dropshot and make it clear that he’s in for the long haul, I think he can eventually wear down Sinner. Alcaraz just won their most recent clash on ultra-slow hardcourt at Indian Wells, and I think he’s just a little more able to apply pressure on a slow clay-court here. The tennis analysis here has fallen short, so I’ll be watchinig intently to try to see what patterns and issues each player is having against the other. Since this is a matchup we’re going to see for a long time, hopefully I can learn and improve. For now, Alcaraz in 5 is what I expect. He was in good shape to win last year, Sinner is not 100%, and Alcaraz has just dispatched one of the last darkhorse threats in the event in dismissive fashion.