2024 Roland Garros Men's Finals

Zverev vs Alcaraz :

All you can really ask for in a final is an opponent you can beat. For Alcaraz, this is it. Since his first appearance on tour it has been clear that the French Open was an event he would thrive at, and he really has. Leading and cramping last year in the finals was a wild surprise, and losing to Zverev the year before was as well, but his results only seem lackluster because the expectation is for him to win the title. A quarterfinal and back to back finals appearances is a more than healthy resume, and here he has a chance to shake off las year’s disappointment. Unfinished business is a tremendous motivator in racquetsports, and we have seen many players thrive in their second attempt at something. The nerves are diminished, the opponent more familiar, and you can guarantee that despite all the press conferences and coaching in the world, Alcaraz has been thinking about this title since he lost to Djokovic in 2023.

Avoiding Djokovic in a major title run has been considered a huge gift for the past few years, but here Alcaraz played the toughest opposition. Tsitsipas was the second tier contender in the best form, and he was soundly dismissed. It was such a comprehensive win that Tsitsipas actually seemed to benefit from it. In press he was very open, very humble, and I think he will finally start to work on fixing his leaks rather than upping the intensity on the same old approach. In the semifinals, Alcaraz played the guy who is basically setting the bar on tour right now : Jannik Sinner. Sinner’s hip was the big question all week, and clay seemed to bring up his past stamina issues. He may have lost the match, but it is clear that Sinner’s fitness has gone way up. It’s no surprise that Darren Cahill and Simmone Vagnozzi are instituting progress in him, but an ultra-thin athlete can sometimes struggle to pack on muscle and additional stamina, so it’s great to see.

Sinner and Alcaraz reminded me of a movie that everyone always tells you “you gotta see!” They hype it up for so long that when you finally watch it, it’s underwhelming even though it’s good quality. The level they played was unreal and the pace was absurd, yet I felt strangely disinterested at times. Maybe it’s from watching 160 hours of tennis in the past week, or maybe it’s knowing the match is going to go on a long time. I often struggle to watch the first three quarters of the NBA for the same reason. The play is great, but you know there are a few hours left before the pressure mounts. I think what really happened here is that the pace these two play at is so frantic that neither one can really implement their offense, so the rallies start to look uniform.

In any event, this match delivered. Sinner and Alcaraz are both tremendously fast and reflect pace well. Alcaraz hits bigger, but Sinner is more steady. As a result, Sinner wins the exchanges when he’s fresh. Alcaraz is a little more likely to shank a forehand, so he struggled to find points while Sinner was playing his best. Adding into this is that Sinner’s game is the more defined of the two. He is in a great rhythm this year of knowing exactly what he’s going to do from every position on the court, and since he plays in fairly conservative patterns (cross-court trading and looking to avoid opening up any angles for his opponent to attack) his decision-making is automatic. Alcaraz’s game is more fluid. He goes to a number of different dropshots, he varies the height of his forehand and the pace. He hits his backhand hard but likes to take it down the line if he sees a sudden opening. His serve also is something that he doesn’t seem to be sure of. His box regularly signals him which serve to go with, and against Sinner it’s pretty clear that Jannik’s ability to serve the ball wide from both sides is a huge edge.

I bring up Alcaraz’s game being more of a last-minute decision thing because this is what gives Sinner a little edge in the matchup currently. They’re trading at such an intense pace that Alcaraz doesn’t really always have time to decide on a shot, so he’s the one more likely to slow the pace down, miss, or leave something short. This resulted in Sinner running out to a 4-0 lead and quickly taking the first set. He was up an early break in the second, but the initial break is one of the hardest things to hold on to in tennis. Every game seems to get more and more difficult, and it seems to elevate your opponent’s level to play from behind for an entire set. Once Alcaraz broke back, he was able to maintain momentum and take the second.

I think this is the way these matchups are going to look for a long time. Early on Sinner’s game is just a bit better than Alcaraz’s, but once the edge is off Alcaraz’s style works well. They traded the third and fourth sets, but Sinner started to look a little fatigued. Once he wasn’t hitting as big, Alcaraz’s forehand stared to make inroads. His swing sends the ball at varying heights and paces even if he’s going for the same shot, and on a clay court that’s been chewed up for weeks and for hours already on the day, this makes it tough to play. Sinner finally started to make some defensive errors, and his legs looked a little tired at times. That fatigue was only slightly noticeable in the 5th (a testament to his improved stamina), but it was there. He had some early setups and sent the ball wide in an uncharacteristic manner, and the dropshot lob combination was a huge key for Alcaraz late in the match. There were several times where it seemed Alcaraz had no passing lane and I flinched thinking he’d have to go right at Sinner, but he opted for the lob over and over and he’s so consistent with it. With control, I don’t think he missed one during the match, and despite Sinner getting to many of them, the cumulative fatigue it adds might not have been worth the hustle. Something about the rapid 180s and exertion of chasing these shots down seems to just be a really heavy output of energy.

Sinner hung on in the fifth and forced Alcaraz to serve it out, but serving second in a 5th and giving up a break is a huge mountain to come back from. Alcaraz also saved his most clutch serves for his final service game, notching 3 unreturned serves wide from the duece side. After watching the match, I think Sinner will still be beating Alcaraz in their hardcourt meetings for a time. His serving is much more effective, and his game and swing production are steadier. Alcaraz hit a good rhythm on his backhand late in the match and seemed to be the bigger hitter, but on hardcourt I don’t think he gets the same time.

While Alcaraz and Sinner were crushing the ball for 4 hours, Zverev was delivering his usual drag-you-down performance. It seems like all his competitors can beat him in the first set, because his shot selection is so safe and their legs are moving well enough to return serve and step into their backhands. His best tennis is not as good as most top 30 players best tennis for one set, but he can maintain that level of boring grinding servebot/pusher tennis for 5 hours without blinking. Clay is really the perfect surface for him, because his passive shot selection becomes a feature eventually. Knowing your opponent isn’t going for anything can be a relief when you’re playing well, but over time it can make you feel trapped in rallies. If Zverev is hitting his backhand bigger (in this case it was very true) than his opponent, he’s going to get more bad bounces, more short balls back, more of everything good out of the exchange. Ruud is a great player and is adept on clay, but he’s trying to do it all with his forehand and that’s not going to beat the top players. He’s the clay-court Berrettini at this point for me; the matchups are exciting but I don’t think he can beat them with one arm.

Zverev’s forehand is a mess but it’s a mess that he’s doing much better with this season. He’s not closing out points that he probably should off that wing, but he is always doing the work to get his feet in position and get a full swing. Even though Ruud was able to run down most of the forehands early, Zverev at least made him run for them. Zverev’s serve pretty much keeps him safe from really getting exposed at this point, because it’s hard to direct your returns to one side when your return goals have been reduced to “just get it back and go from there”. His backhand is the 3rd best on tour for me (after Djokovic/Sinner), and that’s why he stacks up so well against so many top players that we think he should get crushed by. All the passivity and foolishness and ego stuff allows weaker players to hang with him, but it translates to consistent ballstriking and a lot of balls put back in play against the top guys. So many players try to do too much against a big name, and they crash out of the match quicker. Perhaps they’d lose anyway playing within themselves, but that overlooks the pressure of the moment, and that top player having a bad day. Besides, if they could elevate to that level, they’d already be doing it. Zverev loses to the top guys, but he makes them beat him. The caveat to this approach is that his serve is a top 5 delivery, and that allows him to actually get to the business end of sets where the favorite can feel pressure.

Zverev is supposed to lose to Alcaraz, but he doesn’t match up that poorly. He has a bunch of wins against Alcaraz, including this years Australian Open and their 2022 French Open meeting (where Zverev would later go on to get injured while competing well against Nadal). Alcaraz doesn’t really deliver many aces at this point, so Zverev’s wingspan and good movement lets him get into a lot of rallies. Since Alcaraz is prone to some errors and plays a little for the crowd at times, Zverev’s grinding/passive approach allows him to benefit from all those spots. Zverev’s own serve gets a lot of height and his hit with good power, and right now Alcaraz’s return of serve is the least automatic part of his game. His swing on the forehand side isn’t ideal for guaranteeing returns in play, and he sometimes adopts a deep return position which lets Zverev get inside the baseline. Zverev’s own forehand isn’t the best weapon, but he tends to go high and cross-court as a default on defense and that high bounce seems to keep Alcaraz from infusing too much depth. Alcaraz plays the dropshot/lob combo extremely well, but Zverev’s movement when sprinting forward is surprisingly quick, and he’s 6’6” and has one of the most reliable overheads in the game so it becomes a less effective weapon. Zverev also is in pretty great shape currently, so wearing him down isn’t as guaranteed. In short, this is closer than some might want it to be.

Working for Alcaraz are a lot of things. One, time. He’s 21, and he’s only going to improve. The minor issues in his game are things that are already disappearing, and his team and his love for the game itself almost guarantee that he will continue to improve even while he is on top. Two, the work ethic. Zverev is beast in the gym, but Alcaraz has been taking the game more professionally for many years. That cumulative discipline and exercise builds up over time. Zverev’s stamina is good, but Alcaraz’s level tends to elevate as the game goes on. Three, the crowd. The RG crowd hasn’t been very biased in many of the late matches, but Alcaraz’s style is going to grab them more than Zverev. There will be some who are anti-Zverev because of his domestic violence allegations, there are some who dislike him because of his poor attitude in his early years, and there are some who love Alcaraz the way they loved Nadal and who are just going to will him to win against any opponent. The undecided are going to cheer for tennis, but Alcaraz’s style and willingness to go for the big highlight shot are going to grab them. Four, and this is the big one, he’s better at tennis. Alcaraz doesn’t really have a glaring weakness, and Zverev’s forehand and shot selection is one. If you ask me who’s going to blink first, it’s always going to be Zverev. Since it’s Alcaraz’s first final, there may be some nerves and reactions to the point, but at the end of the day, you get to play the match. He will make errors, and he will get puppy dog excited when he has the lead, but he always resets well.

Alcaraz hits huge on his forehand, and Zverev will need to outlast him here to win. Beating Sinner was great prep for this match, because Carlitos had to navigate a player who has a better backhand than him. Zverev’s slow start might actually hurt him here, but I don’t think this will be the romp in the park that some are hoping for. I think we’ll see very early that it’s difficult for Alcaraz to just wrest control of rallies, and I think Zverev’s serve will keep the scoreline to single break and tiebreaker sets for a lot of this match. Mirroring the semis, I have Alcaraz winning in 5. These two have had very close matches in the past, but I think the prep is the big key here and Alcaraz has all the trappings of a great champion while Zverev has somewhat been taking the long road here. Both players want this so badly, and there’s nothing in their history to make either one give up. There is an outside chance that Alcaraz feels the pressure off after the Sinner win and is able to open up from 0-0 and really play the lights out powerful tennis that we all know is coming in the future, but even that is a welcome finals because it will be amazing to see. This is going to be the match of the tournament. Alcaraz in 5.