2024 Australian Open Women's Semifinals

Yastremska vs Zheng

I don’t know who’s going to win this and I’m glad. This has been a ridiculous week. Noskova beat Swiatek. Blinkova beat good Rybakina. Sloane beat Kasatkina. Raducanu won a match??? Dodin made the fourth round a major. Avanesyan beat Sakkari. Timofeeva beating Cornet, Wozniacki and Haddad Maia. Frech in the 4th round after being almost off tour the past few years. Andreeva left Jabeur on 0 and 2, and Diane Parry almost beat her. Anisimova and Badosa are back winning matches, Krejcikova stopped cracking and played some ball, and Sabalenka is smoking solid tennis players in every round. It’s hard to even register how incredible Yastremska’s run has been because the entire tournaments has had breakout performances. Zheng has had some help from the draw, but for her to make a Grand Slam semifinal is huge. The WTA is known for some varied results, but that no longer feels like a criticism. It has been a hectic tournament, but all of the results are because of good play, and the upsets have not diminished the strength of the draw at all.

The depth in the WTA is real, but sometimes upsets can lead to lopsided matches in a late round. Lots of players make a deep run, but you know that there’s a round or a matchup where that road is over. There’s an established ceiling or a perceived weight class. For Zheng and Yastremska, there isn’t. Part of that is because they have struggled with consistency in the past, but both of them have won big matches in the past at their peak, and both of them have been playing well this week. They’ve moved a little bit out of the spotlight, but the tennis is there for them to thrive. This week they’ve both been near their best. The letdown spots have been there (Azarenka and Kalinskaya strike me as the two big chances for them to regress or lose to errors), but they haven’t blinked.

For Yastremska, the level has been more steady. She’s been hitting big and really only losing points to unforced errors. Against Noskova, this was the difference-maker. They traded from the baseline with great power and skill, but Noskova never really gained control of the exchanges. Yastremska hit a bit harder and didn’t miss. The points she gave up were unforced errors, but they were unforced errors on shots where she had control and position. It’s bad to get excited and try to crush the ball and send it 4 feet wide, but when that’s your opponents only hope, you’re in control of the match. Yastremska doesn’t hit many unreturned serves either, but she does get a ball to hit almost every time, and her second serve isn’t much worse than her first. In short, she’s playing unreal from the baseline and can stay out of trouble against Zheng on serve.

Zheng’s play has been fairly inconsistent this week, but the good patches are scary. Kalinskaya played an almost perfect first set of tennis, and Zheng was right there. Her serve from the duece-court is incredibly good, and the funky angle she lands her second serve on when she goes down the T is basically maximum levels of annoying for a returner because it’s rising up and making them swing almost diagonal on the backhand. Easy enough when you’re stationary, but the initial lunge is to the left and the ball is bending into them so they almost have to decelerate their body but accelerate their arms. It’s not something Zheng invented, but the delivery is exceptional. It’s a ball players like Federer and Barty would often slice down the line, but that’s a shot I don’t really see anyone in the draw breaking out at this point, so Zheng will continue to score there. Add to this praise that she has a great ability to create the wide angle on first serves from the duece-court, and Zheng’s success starts to make sense.

Zheng was in trouble against Kalinskaya, as Anna played a very composed and consistent first set, but she hung in admirably. When Zheng was on the run or left the ball short, Kalinskaya was able to create cross-court angles off both wings and finish off rallies in a few shots. Zheng moves well, but like Hurkacz she’s just a tiny step slow at the top level of lateral defense because she’s so tall. It gives Yastremska a shot since she hits with such pace, but Zheng makes the court small also. When you do leave a backhand angle short, Zheng is adept at going inside out/up the line with her backhand on the run. She hit it on a number of big points against Kalinskaya and the percentage was very solid. She’s tall, but she has an excellent base and gets real low on those shots. Her forehand has a lot of pace, but I also like how she varied it on some big points. When she got in a little trouble, she added a little extra height and spin (at the expense of pace). It’s good to make things a little difficult on your opponent sometimes on a big point. Yes, they’ve drilled how to execute on that exact defensive play (moonballs or slices), but executing at 30-40 4-4 tends to make people tense up a little, and that can lead to errors. In any event, these are the good things Zheng does. She trades power well, she serves great, and her backhand is solid.

Yastremska strength is her pace. Her forehand is getting through the court faster than people can run to it. When she has a short ball, players are toast, but I’ve also noticed they’re guessing wrong a lot when they pick a side. Playing someone unfamiliar can make it really tough to guess correct, and a few wrong choices can often lead to a lot of overthinking and second-guessing which leads to more wrong choices. Minor, but a plus that a lot of first-time slam winners have had (Pegula/Sakkari frequently guessed wrong against Raducanu and Ostapenko’s nonstop offense caught many people sleeping when they thought they’d hit a decent ball to buy them time). Zheng also has made unforced errors in a number of her sets. She ran away with it against Kalinskaya, but she is prone to losing a little length on her forehand when she’s off-balance and she can get a little results-oriented about errors when they come.

So who wins? I really don’t know. Yastremska is more powerful than Kalinskaya, but I don’t know if she moves the ball as sharply. Kalinskaya can create really consistent and sharp angles with her backhand, and she played exceptional tennis and just barely won a tiebreaker. Zheng probably can’t defend if she leaves the ball short, but she hits pretty solid and goes mainly with the pace so there’s a chance for her to frustrate Yastremska a little. I would expect this to go to a third because when players are at this level, it’s very difficult to win without playing all-out, and it’s hard to maintain the level necessary to get a lead, especially when winning the first set sometimes tends to be a “phew” moment rather than a “time to dig in” moment. It’s hard to peak for 2 hours.

Zheng’s serving has been really useful and she has seemed to play better each round. In a long match, I think she has an easier time winning a third because the points tend to get very big and having a huge serve to rely on can get you a few simple holds while your opponent is earning all their points from the baseline. Over time, having to win baseline rallies (because the atmosphere in a third can be so tense) tends to shrink your game a bit and that can make you predictable because safer shots tend to be crosscourt or hit slightly less than hard (backhands spread down the line instead of driven) . This means longer rallies where you’re trying to escape at times by putting a little extra juice into a shot to a safe target, and that’s tough to do without errors because your muscles are tired and more prone to clenching at that point in the match. This is really tough, and despite my word salad, I don’t have a better sense of who’s going to win tonight. This is a great semifinal. Zheng in 3, but go Yastremska!

Gauff vs Sabalenka

If you’re still reading, nice. This is going to be good. Despite Zheng and Yastremska being excellent replacement for the usual suspects, these are the usual suspects, and they are playing well. Gauff has not sailed smoothly in the scorelines at all, but her ability to apply consistent pressure with her defense and speed mean that her plan B is always a good option. Having that defensive prowess as a backup, and having it prove successful so often means Gauff is never really out of a match. This will factor here, because I expect her to lose the first set. Sabalenka is playing some scary tennis right now, and hasn’t had a lapse in the entire event. She hasn’t dropped a set yet, and hasn’t even come close. She’s played 5 matches, and has only lost 16 games total. Last year, these two met in the US Open. The end of a long season is favorable to Gauff because she wears opponents down, but Sabalenka still cruised in the first set, winning 6-2. From there, unforced errors cost her the title, but Aryna seems in even better form here so I do think she’ll be unplayable until she is.

The question really is how long can Sabalenka play like this. Her recent notable losses were Gauff due to eventual unforced errors, and the finals loss in Brisbane to Rybakina where she abruptly lost her rhythm. It’s possible that being outhit can rush her and cause errors, but it’s not 100% that Gauff can impose herself on the rallies early in the match. I like Sabalenka in 2 here or Gauff in 3, but that’s not much of a prediction. The problem is that Sabalenka hasn’t given us much way to expect her level to drop since she’s been so focused and dominant in the early rounds. Gauff is a little too good though to expect her to get rolled. Her first serve percentage will be a factor, but at times I feel like long service games for Gauff serve half a purpose even though they’re not ideal. If you play a 6 minute game, so does your opponent. If you play 3 of them, yes you’re miserable and probably lose the set, but your opponent has had to supply a ton of shots and burn a bit of extra adrenaline from the highs and lows and c’mons, and it can be tough to keep that intensity going in the second.

There is intrigue here, because the two have traded matches since 2020, with Gauff having won 4 of them. Sabalenka was the favorite for her second major title in 2023, and Gauff made a tremendous comeback to change that and win her first. Despite Gauff’s lead in the h2h and her big US Open win, she’s still the underdog here. Sabalenka is in great form, and has a good chance to reverse the trend. I expect her to start well, and it is really hard to win the runback so Sabalenka is who I expect to win. Gauff has been great at times, but she’s the one whose game has ebbed and flowed this week, and given her quick victories so far Sabalenka should be more than fresh enough to play her best for a full match this time. Sabalenka in 2.